On Players Evaluation - Part IV (Teams Elo Projections)
Catching up...
We left our reader at the point where we demonstrated how to produce Elo ratings for hockey teams over season (and over postseason too, if anyone wondered) and how to apply it to the up and coming next games of the rated teams.
However, in its main eparchy, chess, Elo is rarely used to produce single match outcome projections. It's much more popular when used to create a long-term projection, such as the whole tournament, which in chess lasts between five to thirteen rounds, usually.
Therefore, the question arises, shouldn't we try to use our newborn Elo ratings to long-term projections? And the answer is an unambiguous 'Yes!' We can and should create the projections for the team over longer spans such as a seven days ahead, thirty, or even through the end of the season!
How do we do it? Since we computed the Elo ratings for all teams, and we know the schedule ahead of all teams, we can run the Elo expectation on all matchups during the requested span and sum them. And since we assume that each team performs according the expectation, their Elo ratings do not change during the evaluation span.
Eteam = Σ(Ematch1, Ematch2, ... , Ematchn)
All good? No. There is one more finesse to add. The produced expectations will all be calculated in 2-0 span per game, assuming only 2 points are in play in each matchup. However, due to the loser's point it's not so. Therefore on average there are 2 + NOT/SO / Ntotal points are handed out during the season in every match (where NOT/SO is the number of games that get decided in OT or SO). So we need to compute the NOT/SO value, divide it by two (because there are two teams in each match) and multiply the expectation of each team by this factor. By doing so we receive the reliable Elo expectation, such as one in the table below, as of Jan 2nd, 2017. Spans of 7 days, 30 days and through the end of the season are displayed (games, expected points and total).
# | Team | Div | Elo | Pts | Gin7 | Pin7 | Tin7 | Gin30 | Pin30 | Tin30 | GinS | PinS | TinS |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Columbus Blue Jackets | MET | 2265.22 | 56 | 4 | 6 | 62 | 14 | 23 | 79 | 47 | 79 | 135 |
2 | Pittsburgh Penguins | MET | 2186.57 | 55 | 1 | 2 | 57 | 11 | 16 | 71 | 44 | 65 | 120 |
3 | Minnesota Wild | CEN | 2180.88 | 50 | 3 | 4 | 54 | 14 | 21 | 71 | 46 | 68 | 118 |
4 | San Jose Sharks | PAC | 2137.87 | 47 | 3 | 4 | 51 | 14 | 20 | 67 | 45 | 62 | 109 |
5 | Washington Capitals | MET | 2135.54 | 49 | 4 | 4 | 53 | 15 | 18 | 67 | 46 | 59 | 108 |
6 | Montreal Canadiens | ATL | 2117.99 | 50 | 4 | 5 | 55 | 14 | 18 | 68 | 45 | 58 | 108 |
7 | New York Rangers | MET | 2135.43 | 53 | 3 | 4 | 57 | 11 | 14 | 67 | 43 | 54 | 107 |
8 | Chicago Blackhawks | CEN | 2103.27 | 51 | 3 | 4 | 55 | 12 | 15 | 66 | 42 | 52 | 103 |
9 | Anaheim Ducks | PAC | 2105.41 | 46 | 3 | 4 | 50 | 13 | 18 | 64 | 43 | 55 | 101 |
10 | Edmonton Oilers | PAC | 2092.89 | 45 | 4 | 4 | 49 | 14 | 16 | 61 | 44 | 53 | 98 |
11 | Ottawa Senators | ATL | 2088.34 | 44 | 2 | 2 | 46 | 11 | 11 | 55 | 45 | 52 | 96 |
12 | Toronto Maple Leafs | ATL | 2097.27 | 41 | 3 | 4 | 45 | 12 | 14 | 55 | 46 | 54 | 95 |
13 | St. Louis Blues | CEN | 2066.58 | 43 | 2 | 2 | 45 | 12 | 12 | 55 | 44 | 51 | 94 |
14 | Boston Bruins | ATL | 2079.41 | 44 | 4 | 5 | 49 | 15 | 17 | 61 | 43 | 49 | 93 |
15 | Carolina Hurricanes | MET | 2093.06 | 39 | 4 | 5 | 44 | 13 | 13 | 52 | 46 | 53 | 92 |
16 | Los Angeles Kings | PAC | 2066.68 | 40 | 4 | 4 | 44 | 14 | 16 | 56 | 45 | 52 | 92 |
17 | Philadelphia Flyers | MET | 2079.35 | 45 | 3 | 3 | 48 | 12 | 13 | 58 | 43 | 46 | 91 |
18 | Calgary Flames | PAC | 2076.79 | 42 | 4 | 5 | 47 | 14 | 16 | 58 | 43 | 49 | 91 |
19 | Tampa Bay Lightning | ATL | 2068.90 | 42 | 4 | 4 | 46 | 13 | 14 | 56 | 44 | 48 | 90 |
20 | New York Islanders | MET | 2070.87 | 36 | 2 | 3 | 39 | 12 | 14 | 50 | 46 | 51 | 87 |
21 | Florida Panthers | ATL | 2059.66 | 40 | 4 | 5 | 45 | 13 | 14 | 54 | 44 | 46 | 86 |
22 | Nashville Predators | CEN | 2055.15 | 38 | 4 | 4 | 42 | 14 | 14 | 52 | 46 | 48 | 86 |
23 | Dallas Stars | CEN | 2052.77 | 39 | 3 | 3 | 42 | 13 | 13 | 52 | 44 | 46 | 85 |
24 | Vancouver Canucks | PAC | 2049.05 | 37 | 4 | 5 | 42 | 12 | 15 | 52 | 44 | 46 | 83 |
25 | Detroit Red Wings | ATL | 2033.62 | 37 | 3 | 3 | 40 | 13 | 12 | 49 | 45 | 43 | 80 |
26 | Winnipeg Jets | CEN | 2017.50 | 37 | 4 | 4 | 41 | 14 | 14 | 51 | 43 | 40 | 77 |
27 | Buffalo Sabres | ATL | 2009.45 | 34 | 3 | 3 | 37 | 13 | 12 | 46 | 46 | 41 | 75 |
28 | New Jersey Devils | MET | 1994.66 | 35 | 5 | 4 | 39 | 14 | 12 | 47 | 45 | 37 | 72 |
29 | Arizona Coyotes | PAC | 1921.41 | 27 | 3 | 2 | 29 | 12 | 8 | 35 | 45 | 30 | 57 |
30 | Colorado Avalanche | CEN | 1910.42 | 25 | 3 | 2 | 27 | 12 | 7 | 32 | 46 | 29 | 54 |
The NOT/SO value right now is about 1.124 (i.e. about quarter of all games are decided past the regulation).
So you know what's good for the people?
But the people consists of men...
The team projection leaves us wanting more. After all, don't we want to be able to evaluate individual players and factor it somehow in the projection to reflect the injuries and other reasons that force top players out of the lineups? Stay tuned.
To be continued...
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