On streaks and breaks
So after remembering the Botwinnik's quote, and after publishing the stats how the teams actually play after different breaks, a new idea came to me - check whether the teams on streaks are affected positively or negatively by breaks.
For the sake of the analysis, I assumed the following:
- A break is a period of three days at least between games.
- A streak is a sequence of at least three wins in a row, or at least seven points in four games.
So we check for the last thirty years (as far as NHL.com would let us in) if the streaking team was able to keep the streak alive, or whether the streak was broken:
SEASON | ALIVE | BROKEN |
---|---|---|
1987/1988 | 5 | 11 |
1988/1989 | 12 | 7 |
1989/1990 | 8 | 14 |
1990/1991 | 13 | 11 |
1991/1992 | 17 | 13 |
1992/1993 | 20 | 16 |
1993/1994 | 19 | 20 |
1994/1995 | 2 | 7 |
1995/1996 | 15 | 11 |
1996/1997 | 15 | 11 |
1997/1998 | 12 | 20 |
1998/1999 | 12 | 9 |
1999/2000 | 18 | 12 |
2000/2001 | 21 | 11 |
2001/2002 | 17 | 6 |
2002/2003 | 13 | 10 |
2003/2004 | 12 | 14 |
2005/2006 | 31 | 15 |
2006/2007 | 16 | 16 |
2007/2008 | 23 | 24 |
2008/2009 | 15 | 20 |
2009/2010 | 14 | 17 |
2010/2011 | 19 | 11 |
2011/2012 | 22 | 11 |
2012/2013 | 6 | 3 |
2013/2014 | 15 | 15 |
2014/2015 | 16 | 16 |
2015/2016 | 16 | 14 |
2016/2017 | 8 | 11 |
TOTAL | 432 | 376 |
Actually, it looks like the streaks weren't affected by the break either way. 53.4% of the times the streak continued, 46.6% of the time it went dead. There is a very large discrepancy between the seasons, although I'd attribute it to lesser parity between the teams overall in these years. For the last 5 years, the probability for the streak to stay alive has been 50.8% (61 cases of extended streaks out of 120).
Now, what would change, if we define a break a little bit longer, by a single day:
SEASON | ALIVE | BROKEN |
---|---|---|
1987/1988
|
2
|
2
|
1988/1989
|
4
|
1
|
1989/1990
|
3
|
1
|
1990/1991
|
4
|
4
|
1991/1992
|
7
|
8
|
1992/1993
|
8
|
2
|
1993/1994
|
7
|
7
|
1994/1995
|
1
|
1
|
1995/1996
|
6
|
7
|
1996/1997
|
6
|
2
|
1997/1998
|
5
|
5
|
1998/1999
|
6
|
2
|
1999/2000
|
9
|
3
|
2000/2001
|
7
|
4
|
2001/2002
|
6
|
4
|
2002/2003
|
5
|
1
|
2003/2004
|
3
|
6
|
2005/2006
|
16
|
4
|
2006/2007
|
8
|
5
|
2007/2008
|
10
|
6
|
2008/2009
|
8
|
8
|
2009/2010
|
6
|
6
|
2010/2011
|
9
|
3
|
2011/2012
|
8
|
4
|
2012/2013
|
2
|
1
|
2013/2014
|
3
|
9
|
2014/2015
|
5
|
9
|
2015/2016
|
7
|
6
|
2016/2017
|
3
|
8
|
TOTAL
|
174
|
129
|
The changes are rather interesting. Now, overall, the chances of streak to continue are up to 57.4%, and only in 42.6% of the cases it came to a stop. But in the last five years - since the last lockout - and with the schedule changes so that there are at least two games between every team (increasing travel), the ratio drops from 50.8% to the humble 37.7% (20 out of 53!)
Extending the breaks to five days provides too little data to draw any conclusions.
So I am inclined to agree with Dr. Botwinnik, that extended breaks of more than three days throw teams off their pace and should be reduced to minimum. Three days are borderline alright.
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