WordsOfWisdom

Well in a previous hockey lifetime ( pre 2005) the Leafs would have kept Hyman and signed more free agent star power to address weaknesses. Now we get to watch teams pluck valuable players off our roster due to cap constraints. The Leafs are the franchise hurt the most by the salary cap. Imagine telling the Yankees or Dodgers that they had to reduce payroll by 50% and kiss goodbye to half their roster. Fat chance of that ever happening in MLB.

The Leafs return with largely the same roster they had last season, now back in their usual division again. Off to a good start... but did this team improve during the off-season? (I won't be around too much for the first month of the season because I've got a lot on my plate, but will be back around December.)

Whether I want Ovie to finish 1st or not doesn't affect my predictions. I can act like a GROWN UP and not let my emotions control me. I'm not "twisting" anything to fit any narrative. WTF do I have to gain here? Do you ever stop for a minute to consider that there is NO LOGIC to your reasoning at all? What narrative? What is my "narrative" and how do I profit from it? Please explain. My REPUTATION is the only thing that affects my predictions. My "narrative" (if I had one) would be to be RIGHT. Making BAD predictions makes ME look bad. I'm motivated to look good, therefore I make accurate predictions.

True statement: Ovechkin reached the equivalent of 30 more goals over the course of the past two seasons losing no time due to injury. Neither of these statements matter. Okay so let's just delete Ovechkin's 65-goal season from the record books. Never happened. That season got cut short by a time-travelling covid virus. He only played 41 games that season and scored only 32 goals. Darn. I guess Ovie isn't a 60-goal scorer after all. What a shame.

I think if he signs ANOTHER contract after this 5-yr contract and plays into his 40's he very well might. I agree. I don't like the idea of a Russian-born player being the #1 scorer all-time in the NHL. I know Americans are generally neutral on this, but it does matter to Canadians given that Russia is still our #1 rival in hockey. We know that a country like Russia would hold it against us and be a "sore winner" so to speak. I haven't crunched the numbers on this yet (why bother, everyone will just sh_t all over it)... but I suspect Ovie is already at a point where even if he retired today, he would be regarded as the greatest goal scorer in NHL history, because you have to factor in the different eras each player played in. Gretzky's playmaking sets him apart from everyone else.

Caught and corrected a typo. Forecast: To make educated predictions about the future using available data. Prorate: To extrapolate player performance (generally in the short term) assuming the same pace of performance, for comparison or forecasting purposes. In other words, prorating is a method to make equal comparisons between players and to forecast future performance.

Correct. And if we go by Alex Ovechkin's career history, Matthews may never hit 50 or 60 goals because his performance is at its peak right now and will soon start to decline. Ovechkin had his best season in his third year in the NHL. He has never reached that goal total or point total since. It's quite possible that we just witnessed Auston Matthew's BEST season of his entire NHL career. This may have been his Mogilny/Selanne/insert whoever you want as a comparison season. Many elite players have ONE outstanding season that is better than anything else they had ever done before or will ever do after. This may have been it for AM. If you cut Teemu Selanne's rookie season short by 40 games then he never gets to 76 goals and never comes close ever again. It would completely change his NHL history. Cutting this season short may have robbed AM of his only 60 goal season and will now redefine his entire career going forward. The odds of any player scoring 60+ goals is slim, even for the very best players. You need immense talent, youth, and you need everything to break just right. AM had all of those. The odds of him getting it all again (at a 60-goal level) is slim to none.

We can cover both topics.

Let's get started! LESSON 1: First let's examine how player performance changes with age: Source: A New Look at Aging Curves for NHL Skaters (part 1) https://hockey-graphs.com/2017/03/23/a-new-look-at-aging-curves-for-nhl-skaters-part-1/ As you can see, players in the NHL peak in their early to mid 20's and then performance begins to gradually decline, falling noticeably at age 37+. Any forecast that takes data from a player's prime and extrapolates it outward to the end of their career will almost certainly be wrong. The player will clearly underperform according to the estimate.

Since so many people struggle with this, I thought I'd start a TUTORIAL thread on prorating sports statistics! In this thread we will go through the math involved in the extrapolation of data. We'll explore forecasting, and how to factor in age, injuries, and other performance factors. We will look at real world player examples, and crunch the numbers.

Sometimes I think the most valuable service I provide to this forum is a different point of view.

You let your emotions get in the way of your thinking. Everything you said above is a lie. You are comparing Matthews (in his prime) to Ovie (nearing retirement). Apples to oranges. I prorate apples differently than oranges. Yes absolutely. Guilty as charged for using math, NHL history, and basic human biology to always predict player performance accurately.

Every PLAYER is different but every HUMAN ages. You can't beat the clock. I understand the point you're TRYING to make.... but you're getting angry at me for pointing out basic biology. Ovie at 40 won't be the same guy he was at 25. No he didn't end of story .... 41/52x82~=65 My statement is a true statement. It's not something you can just argue down. It's not "agree to disagree". You're wrong. True statement: "Auston Matthews reached the equivalent of a 60+ goal season (in a normal 82-game season) in the covid shortened 2020-21 season."

Ovie needs an average of 32.8 (33) goals per season to pass Gretzky. I think his best chance to pass Gretzky is to sign a 3-yr contract AFTER his new 5-yr deal expires. That'll take him up to age ~43 (or so) and IF he can play to that age and IF he still wants to play in the NHL and not the KHL, then that's his BEST chance to pass Gretzky.

AND let's not forget that NHL rule changes could be a factor! The game might change within the next five years and get back to being a physical, hitting-first game again. Ovie might have to play some of those years in late 90's/early 2000's style hockey era where guys go head hunting and try to knock him out on every shift. Ovie has played his entire career in an era without clutching and grabbing (2005+). What if it came back again starting next season? Lots of variables to consider. I don't want to sound like a debbie downer but I'm just sayin.

I agree. Which is why he's "due". Every player "like" Ovie in the past has had torn ACL's/MCL's, concussions, or other major injuries that cost them almost an entire season. We need look no further than his fellow countrymen: Pavel Bure and Alexander Mogilny. I didn't say 30-40 games missed. I said he would probably play 50-60 games, so that means missing ~20-30 per season and it was a combination of injuries + NHL lockouts + covid lockdowns. Some combination of those three things bringing his number of games down. Yes I can, and yes I do! It's called AGE. How can you not know this? Every player in NHL history has declined in performance prior to retirement. ALL OF THEM. Matthews is YOUNG and in the PRIME of his career. He not only got his "50" goal season, but this past season he hit the equivalent of 60 goals, putting Matthews into Ovechkin/Bure level scoring territory. Any more steps forward and Matthews will be in Brett Hull scoring territory. By contrast, Ovie is old/older, has logged a lot of miles, and is nearing the END of his career. Is it possible for Ovie to get there? It's possible.... but unlikely. Everyone here is thinking Ovie will score 50 goals per year forever with no decline. Everyone here is assuming no injuries and no other league-wide game stoppages. THAT is the unrealistic position to take. If you're projecting 5 x 50 = 250 goals that's very unlikely. 5 x 40 = 200 goals is unlikely. What you're gonna get is something like this: 40 30 25 20 15

It's more realistic that we assume the NHL won't play a full 82 game season, and injuries are going to start affecting Ovie. Most likely, Ovie plays about 50-60 games/yr for the next five years. So realistically, he's got about 300 games to work with. Over the next five years, his GPG will drop rapidly. I think he's going to plummet into the 25-goal range (if he were playing a full 82-game season, but he won't be). Therefore, it's much more realistic to assume that Ovie gets ~20 goals per season (on average) the rest of the way in. Thus, 5 x 20 = 100 goals. 730 + 100 = 830 goals. His trajectory is such that he'll squeeze past Gordie for 2nd but fall into the abyss between Gordie and Wayne.

I'm sure HIS goal was to pass Gretzky, but given the two COVID-shortened seasons recently (and the third one coming up this fall + the next lockout shortened season when the CBA expires), that dream is over. This is why I was saying that covid has cost Ovie some historic records. For other players like McDavid and Matthews, it has cost them any chance of ever getting there either. The only difference is Ovie got shut down at the end of his career while McDavid and Matthews have been shut down from hockey's scoring records in their prime. Imagine Wayne Gretzky losing half a season during his 200 point year. That's the equivalent of what just happened to McDavid. Imagine Brett Hull losing half a season during his 80+ goal year. That's the equivalent of what just happened to Matthews. They can't get those years back. At least Ovie got most of his prime hockey in uninterrupted.

Yes. They want him to retire as a Capital. He's not going to be chasing any of Gretzky's records, but he will finish 2nd. It's going to take him the bulk of this final contract to pass Gordie but he'll probably get there.

You know him better than I do. Oh well. I keep waiting for the day the Leafs have a defenceman that's as good at his position as the Leafs top forwards are at theirs.

I think Mrazek will be the backup. I have no reason to believe the Leafs are a TOP 3 team in their normal division. They haven't made a noteworthy acquisition thus far to improve the team, and they're still losing talented depth guys.

They sure pulled the plug quick on Myers. You're not kidding! The Flyers, Blues, Canadiens, and Bruins are the winning"est" teams in NHL history..... at least during the regular season. Did I miss anyone? Until I see the Flyers miss the playoffs for ~5 consecutive years I can't agree with your assessment. The Flyers never go down. Two things I'll never see in my life: The Flyers going through a rebuilding phase where they suffer tough times (for more than one season in a row). The Leafs finishing ahead of the Bruins in the standings.

Campbell: starter Mrazek: backup & failsafe Andersen: gone.

I'd say it's Campbell's job to lose, and Mrazek is the veteran backup in case things go sideways. Andersen is gonzo. (Or you could look at it as a healthy battle for the #1 spot, but I still think Campbell already won the starting job last season.)

Oh for sure. Owners are constantly trying to find ways to shoot themselves in the head financially. If it takes putting them in a financial "straight-jacket" to keep them from hurting themselves, so be it. Except that creates a situation where the decisions of one bad person (*cough* Harold Ballard *cough*) can potentially ruin the most profitable franchise in the league. I don't think any one person should have that much power. I think the franchise belongs to the fans more than it does to the owners. The owners own the building, and the owners pay the player's salaries, but the fans essentially own the team.