SaucyJack

The honor of bagging the final goal of the season goes to Adrian Kempe of the LA Kings, over Chicago in OT, capping a late comeback that forces a seemingly gargantuan first round playoff matchup between mighty Dallas and defending champs Vegas!

Toronto is surely grateful to be playing anyone other than the Lightning Bolts in round one. (As they were reminded of, just last night ) OK, does that add, or lessen, the pressure on and expectations of the Maple Leafs in this series vs the Bruins?

Call me a Scheduling Nerd (“You’re a bleedin’ schedule nerd!”) but I find it at least somewhat remarkable, here on the last night of the regular season, that there are three contests where a club is making their one and only appearance at their opponent’s rink: - Kraken at Wild - Canucks at Jets - Oilers at Avalanche In each case, the first two games of the season series were played at the other team’s arena. OK, yes…perhaps a full frontal nerdity warning should have been issued at the start of this post.

They were tremendous in April, but for one fatal night where they lost at home to Washington 2-1.

I see I picked the most popular choice just now. (I did not peek first, honest!) Caps win game 3 on an Ovi power play goal in OT.

Not for Philly…but it would have eliminated Washington because Detroit won their game. (Wings would have been one point above the Caps.)

Yes, both in Buffalo, but I thought that was telling, too. Games were not close, Sabres totally outplayed the Caps. All the more surprising how Washington did in their last 3, earning the full 6 points, to survive.

Do not expect another #8 over #1 here, like Panthers over Bruins last year. This year’s #8 in the East has had season-long difficulties in finishing an adequate % of good scoring chances. Caps PxP man Joe Beninati even mentioned it late in the 2nd period on Monday night, in a 1-0 game where the Caps should have been 3-0 or better on Boston. At least at the very end, Washington back-checked very well, limiting chances by their higher-skilled opponents, earning low-scoring victories. That’s their one forté this season. Their record in 1-goal games is something like 13-2. It is so rare to see Washington blow anyone out, while they get blown out with some regularity. Hence the worst team +/- of any playoff team since 1991, back when 16 of 21 qualified. (Or so I heard said on TV today.) Maybe Ovechkin can bag an OT winner for the first time. Haven’t decided on the spread yet, but it would surprise to see the Rags lose this. (President’s Trophy curse notwithstanding.)

Yeah despite all the older guys, playoff experience for the youngsters (even if only one round against the Rangers) will be invaluable for McMichael, Lapierre, Protas, Alexeyev, Fehervary, Sandin, Iorio…and even the guys a bit older like Milano, Aube-Kubel, Malenstyn, and I’ll throw in Dylan Strome, too, who must come up large if we hope earn a first round upset.

Detroit and Pittsburgh are justifiably pissed off at that decision. It was still 50/50 for the Flyers to spoil it all for Washington.

Spencer Carbery, over achieving in his first year with the Caps. Well done, lads.

Let’s keep that President’s Cup curse going.

Flyers looking like they could spoil things for the Capitals. 30 seconds to go. Nope, didn’t happen.

Has a team ever earned a playoff spot by taking the lead on an empty netter? (Did the Flyers know when pulling the goalie that Detroit had just tied their game with 3.3 seconds remaining?)

That is the question. Will Philly’s extra rest make the difference in the third?

The Athletic says: DET 46% WSH 42% PIT 10% PHI 3% Let the Game 82 round begin.

One last time…NYI clinched, so only one spot left. Any Caps win, even via shootout, gets them in, so moneypuck thinks Philly has a 58.3% chance of winning that final game. But also, that it very likely means the Flyers play spoiler for either Detroit or Pittsburgh rather than to advance themselves into the playoffs. So for three regulation wins to Philly, Montreal, and the Islanders, is only a 6.2% chance? That’s what moneypuck says here. Same as two days ago, the slowpokes at The Athletic have still not updated their odds as of last night’s games. Down to the wire…

I stand corrected. You are right, only each club winning one game (each) would apply for that tiebreaker. Perhaps it will be more amazing for the Caps to advance than for Philly. Their -38 is far worse than Detroit, Pittsburgh, or Buffalo, and worse than Ottawa’s or New Jersey’s. Lots of bad blowout losses to go with close wins. But a WSH win tonight gets them in. Still, a Philly regulation win tonight is more likely to spoil the Capitals’ efforts and earn a spot for the Wings or Pens, but we’ll all know soon.

Flyers defeat Washington in regulation (Tues) Canadiens defeat Detroit in regulation (Tues) Islanders defeat Pittsburgh in regulation (Wed) …then Flyers are IN [Cue Beatles “Help!”] NOTE: In this scenario, Flyers and Capitals would be equal in the first 3 tiebreakers! (Both 31 Regulation wins, both 35 wins excluding shootouts, both 39 total wins.). 4th tiebreaker would be Flyers earning 4 pts (to the Caps 3 pts) in the three games played between the two this season. Amazing that Philly still has this shot to advance.

The Athletic is updated. It claims as of 8:45 this morning, and maybe they ran their algorithm then, but it was not posted until after mid-afternoon. Webmaster screwup, seems likely. They’re considerably different than moneypuck.com, in that they say: DET 47% WSH 31% PIT 16% PHI 11% Velly intellesting…

The Athletic (which I recently got free for a trial period) also calculates NHL playoff odds, but apparently they take weekends off. They still show Pittsburgh with a big edge, but only because, well into Sunday afternoon now, they’ve still yet to update things per Saturday’s crucial results. Good grief, Athletic, either update things like this every bleedin’ day, or don’t do it at all. Especially near end of the season. Such a joke…

I might as well keep this up as we near the end. A disastrous night for Pittsburgh. Five games of relevance, and counting the NYI one-point shootout loss as bad for the Pens, all five went against them. Caps, Flyers, Wings all win, Pens lose. That’s a 1 in 32 bad bounce for them, explaining how in one single game cycle they went from over 50% to about 20%. Moneypuck had it thusly with two to play for everyone but Philly (only one left): NYI 90 WSH 87 DET 87 PHI 87 PIT 86 Note how different these moneypuck odds are than the new odds shown by ABC after the Bruins vs Pens game ended. They showed Detroit at about 50% and Washington about 20%. I guess moneypuck thinks the Canadiens will battle the Red Wings as tough as the Bruins and Flyers will battle the Capitals. Nevertheless, I do think Detroit has the better shot, making their OT winner in Toronto tonight as huge as they celebrated it. (Well it’s been 7 years for them since making the playoffs I hear.) NYI could have clinched but for Caps and Wings winning. Wouldn’t it be rich if they lost their last two while these other guys both won their last two.

After tonight’s action, a disaster for Washington, none of that is likely. Isles and Pens now the likely survivors. The latest moneypuck.com assessment: Tonight, the Caps earn zero points, everyone else gets two except Detroit (one). If Washington & Ovie fail to qualify by a whisker, they’ll look back at the combined 10-4 shellacking in two games in Buffalo in April, snaring zero points against the spoiling Sabres, who will bid them farewell saying, “Ya Burnt!”

Two days later, and some separation has occurred. Islanders nearly a lock, Flyers looking for golf gear. Huge victory for the Caps over Wings to end a 6 game skid and greatly improve their chances. The moneypuck.com odds after last night’s action:

How the worm has turned in just five days, in this Eastern Conference battle between 5 clubs for 2 playoff slots. Philly (0-5-2 since last win) and Washington (0-4-2 since last win) have been eclipsed from the top two slots to now be on the bottom! Conversely, the NY Islanders (5-1-0 in last six) and Pittsburgh (6-0-1 since last loss) have vaulted from the bottom to 1st and 3rd to pass by our two Mid-Atlantic Death Spiralers! Meanwhile, Detroit staying tough (2-2-2 in last six) - I would not count them out as they’ve risen to 2nd. But what a tight pack. Everyone has 5 games to play, except Philly with 4: NYI 85 DET 84 PIT 83 WSH 83 PHI 83 The Prince of Wales Pre-Playoffs Race has reached high-gear!