Buddy
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Posts posted by Buddy
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ok, missed McKinnon, still doesn't change the pressure in tanking for a #1 pick.
As you listed, it's quantity and having some several quality Top 10s. Focusing on just a #1 doesn't cut it.
So that said Flyers already have a 6th overall (Drysdale), 7th (Michkov, which could have been #2), and then 7 1st and 2nd round picks in the next two drafts. Easily enough capital to try work up the draft order.
I'm not saying we're winning the cup tomorrow, but we're better positioned now than we have been in a while, so yeah, glass half-full. Danny-Jonesy get credit for that. I'm not sure I understand all the criticism towards them at the moment over some of the smaller moves+non moves. We still have the core of our 1st+2nd rounders and are positioned decently. Most hopeful than it's been in a while
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I felt like after all these years I should finally contribute something, so here goes.
I wanted to look more into this: "and I think it's something like 2 or 3 teams in the last 20 or 25 years have won the cup without a 1st overall. Those are terrible odds. "
For each Stanley Cup winner, starting from 1980 NYI Cup Win:
- # of times the winning team did not have a #1 Draft Pick: 25
- # of times the winning team had their #1 Draft Pick: 17
- # of times the winning team had someone else's #1 Draft Pick: 2
(although this actually excludes Gretzky, coming from the WHA and not a #1 draft pick)
Keeping more recent, starting from 2000 NJD Cup Win:
- # of times the winning team did not have a #1 Draft Pick: 12
- # of times the winning team had their #1 Draft Pick: 10
- # of times the winning team had someone else's #1 Draft Pick: 1
So really this is about 55/45 in favor of not having a #1 pick on your team in order to win a cup
Going deeper:
The recent (from 2000 NJD) wins are from these picks: Vincent Lecavlier, Fleury & Crosby, Patrick Kane, Alex Ovechkin, Steven Stamkos, Erik Johnson
That's it. Of these, let's say Patrick Kane, Crosby&Fluery (on the same team no less), and Ovechkin could be considered "Generational Talent". They account for 7 Cups of the last 24. That's definitely sizeable, sure.
But that also leaves only three "very good, but not generationally good" #1 picks that won a cup in the last 24 years: Lecavalier, Stamkos, and Erik Johnson (and he wasn't even drafted by the 2022 Colorado team).
Another way to look at this, how many #1 Draft picks have won a Stanley Cup?
Going back to 1980, of the 44 #1 draft picks, only 11 of them won a cup, and 2 of them were with a team that didn't draft them. That's only 25%.
Make of that what you will, but personally, tanking for tanking's sake is not a winning strategy. It did work for Pittsburgh (twice actually, which f***ing pains me), but it's failed way more than succeeded.
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4 hours ago, Podein25 said:
Whoa, that's some champion lurking! Bravo!
Heh, you should (not) see me on the letsgopens forum. In lieu of any exciting end to a flyers season since, well, you know, I would celebrate the end of a season by reading about the Pens crashing out of their playoff race (most years).
When MAF gave those goals up to Montreal in that first round a while back, man, that was some prime-time lurking reading entertainment. You think we panic and get all 'the sky is falling'; that was stuff was *cathartic* to read about.
Anyway, fully hoping a change is in the works here finally, in a lot of ways.
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12 Years already? Crazy, I came over then as well. I guess it's time I finally post something. Thanks for 12 years of laughs, insights, and randomness
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Game 78: Philadelphia Flyers at Columbus Blue Jackets; 4/6/24 @ 7 PM, NBCSP
in Philadelphia Flyers
Posted
The Flyers are the Hockey equivalent of Icarus, the closer they get to the Cup, the quicker their wings melt...