You're generally a bit more bullish on Markstrom than I am, but still very much agree with your whole post. But I'm quoting this particular line because that's dead-on. If they get Markstrom from last year, I just don't think it's strong enough of a team to overcome that. I would guess they'd have to be really bad to be behind the Sharks. Multiple things would have to go terribly wrong, but I think it's a stronger bet than that they'll be contenders.
On the other hand, if Markstrom plays like two seasons ago, their defense holds up, and they play like a team enjoying the benefit of Suter being gone, then they're top of the middle and maybe good things happen.