Where Dubas got it wrong

[yave1964]

Been away. Should be posting again on a more or less regular basis again. 

 

  Look, I am not here to rip on the Leafs or to pile on, there has been enough of that going on, no laugh track with this, my intent is to take a clinical look at the Leafs moves for the 2021 season and how they didnt work out.

 

The Covid shortened season saw the Leafs knocked out in the play in round by the CBJ in a stunner, Dubas retained the core and made a ton of tweaks

 

  SUBTRACTIONS

Barrie went to the Oilers where he was used properly and found his game and was dynamic.

Kapanen was dealt to the Penguins for a first, he had 30 points in 40 games, essentially on pace for a 61 point season in a full year

Gautheir was allowed to leave, went to Arizona and was a non factor, a Leaf first round bust

Ceci left for the Penguins had a damn fine year leading the team at plus 18 and sored at a decent clip for a second pairing blueliner

Some misc. minor players were allowed to leave and didnt impress much of anywhere.

 

ADDS

Jumbo Joe came aboard and was solid

Foligno came over for a first and wasnt a big factor

Spezza was resigned for the league minimum and had a fine year as a third liner

Simmonds came over as a free agent and continues to erode

Brodie was added from the Flames to replace Barrie

Galchenyuk came over in a trade and was put into the top six

Jimmy Vesey was added, found wanting and shipped out

Bogosian was added as a depth defender from the champion Lightning and was a decent third pair guy

Lehtonen came over from Europe, couldnt hack it and was donated to the Jackets.

Nick robertson was expected to hit as a middle six winger as a 19 year old, couldnt stay healthy and was a non factor

 

LOOK, it isnt any one of these moves that i Criticize, it is literally all of them, 

 

THORNTON, FOLIGNO, SPEZZA, SIMMONDS, BRODIE, CHUCKIE, VESEY, All veterans added for their experience, the most common of common denominators? A combined ZERO CUPS BETWEEN THEM. The 'veteran presence' brought in to get the kids over the top have never won anything at the NHL level, Thornton famously so, Simmonds was dealt out of LA and the Kings won two cups in three years right after. Spezza was part of a Senator team famous for insane talent that never won, the others are all in the same boat. OK, fine, Bogo won a cup with the Bolts but more or less as a spare part/spear carrier and the Lightning certainly would have won even without him and look no worse for wear without him. Relying on a 19 year old to replace Kapanen was foolish. Lehtonen, overage Euro's work out about 10 percent of the time at best.

 

  So it is easy to blame Andersen who deserves a large portion to be sure but Campbell was decent, it is easy to say it is another wasted postseason by Marner and Matthews who were large in the regular season and very ordinary against Montreal, and that is true. If Tavares hadnt gotten hurt? Sure, throw it in the mix as well. But to me it is the makeup of the veteran adds who have never won a cup that made the largest difference. A super quick look at the Canadien adds in the offseason

 

PERRY former cup winner one of the biggest pains in the arse to play against especially in the postseason

TOFFOLI Former cup winner built for the playoffs

STAAL Former cup winner, long time captain.

JAKE ALLEN Former cup winner and starting goalie finally solved the Habs desperate need for a 2G

EDMUNDSON Won a cup with the Blues, a solid middle pairing defender with snarl

JOSH ANDERSON Not a cup winner but a hard player who goes all out 200 feet every shift

 

In retrospect, the simple way to put it is the Leafs got the names, the Habs added the guys who do what it takes to win, especially in the playoffs. That is why they moved on and have the Jets on the brink and the Leafs are home pondering where it all went wrong.

 

 

[TropicalFruitGirl26]

Welcome back @yave1964

As always, outstanding observations.
I will add in something else, not player add related, but pretty obvious and very real nonetheless: 
Pressure to win in Toronto.

Unbelievable pressure not only because of the market the Leafs play in, not only because its been 50+ years since a Leaf player last hoisted the Cup, but also because every frickin media outlet you can think of tabbed this as "the Leafs' year".......then they go play in a bubble type division format (yes, yes, along with everyone else), do well, EVERYONE now completely buys into the Leafs hype, as their place amongst the Final Four at minimal, winning it all at best, was assured.

Did the players buy into the hype as well? I hope not....I hope there was some humility there and that everyone from Matthews down to the 25th man KNEW there was tons of work to be done and they could be ousted by ANYONE at anytime if they didn't work hard and want it more than the other team.
But...only the players know for sure on that one.

Then you get those adds you mentioned, the vets who have solid years of NHL experience, but precious little in championship runs, and somehow, between those guys who have never won, media hype with weight that can only be measured in metric tons, and putting it all on the shoulders of a pair of early 20 somethings, that was supposed to translate to a championship, well, that is just insane.

These last few seasons have shown me, again, that winning it all IS a process. Sure, sometimes you get the team that comes out and wins without too much fanfare or expectations to win, but usually, it is the teams that "pay their dues", meaning, come oh so close, only to have their hearts ripped out (sometimes MORE than once!), but remain determined to win, then eventually do through the combination of their experiences, smart GM adds, health, career years, and of course, luck.
Red Wings, Devils, Capitals, and yes, Lightning too, come to mind right away as teams who have  had good teams, had their beating hearts ripped out, but continued on and won after setting right what needed to be set right.

I know its been over 50 long years since the last Toronto Cup win, and yes, they do have some very, very talented players on that team, but they haven't, at least not with this core, gone through "the process".
They somehow were believed to be able to skip ahead and just win because of all the name talent they have, because its the big market Leafs, and because they have been tabbed to do so.

Don't work that way.
If the Leafs believe in what they have, then they learn from previous heartbreaks, tweak what needs tweaking, stay their course, and eventually complete "the process", and win with their current core.

Or, they can do what they usually do, throw a fit, hit the panic button, reset everything, start out again with a different core....resetting "the process"....then continue to wonder why is it they aren't "there yet".

In baseball, it is often said not everyone can play for the Yankees or be the GM of the Yankees, or manage the Yankees due to the expectations and weight of the media those things carry.
Same is true in Toronto with regards to hockey.
It takes people with special kinds of "something" to play, and win there....but they have to be given every opportunity and not think that name recognition, the sweater they wear, or all the hype in the world is gonna get it done for them.

They still gotta toil away like the Buffalo Sabres, like the Columbus Blue Jackets, and like the Anaheim Ducks for that playoff respect, and eventual championship respect.

[ruxpin]

13 hours ago, yave1964 said:

Been away. Should be posting again on a more or less regular basis again. 

 

  Look, I am not here to rip on the Leafs or to pile on, there has been enough of that going on, no laugh track with this, my intent is to take a clinical look at the Leafs moves for the 2021 season and how they didnt work out.

 

The Covid shortened season saw the Leafs knocked out in the play in round by the CBJ in a stunner, Dubas retained the core and made a ton of tweaks

 

  SUBTRACTIONS

Barrie went to the Oilers where he was used properly and found his game and was dynamic.

Kapanen was dealt to the Penguins for a first, he had 30 points in 40 games, essentially on pace for a 61 point season in a full year

Gautheir was allowed to leave, went to Arizona and was a non factor, a Leaf first round bust

Ceci left for the Penguins had a damn fine year leading the team at plus 18 and sored at a decent clip for a second pairing blueliner

Some misc. minor players were allowed to leave and didnt impress much of anywhere.

 

ADDS

Jumbo Joe came aboard and was solid

Foligno came over for a first and wasnt a big factor

Spezza was resigned for the league minimum and had a fine year as a third liner

Simmonds came over as a free agent and continues to erode

Brodie was added from the Flames to replace Barrie

Galchenyuk came over in a trade and was put into the top six

Jimmy Vesey was added, found wanting and shipped out

Bogosian was added as a depth defender from the champion Lightning and was a decent third pair guy

Lehtonen came over from Europe, couldnt hack it and was donated to the Jackets.

Nick robertson was expected to hit as a middle six winger as a 19 year old, couldnt stay healthy and was a non factor

 

LOOK, it isnt any one of these moves that i Criticize, it is literally all of them, 

 

THORNTON, FOLIGNO, SPEZZA, SIMMONDS, BRODIE, CHUCKIE, VESEY, All veterans added for their experience, the most common of common denominators? A combined ZERO CUPS BETWEEN THEM. The 'veteran presence' brought in to get the kids over the top have never won anything at the NHL level, Thornton famously so, Simmonds was dealt out of LA and the Kings won two cups in three years right after. Spezza was part of a Senator team famous for insane talent that never won, the others are all in the same boat. OK, fine, Bogo won a cup with the Bolts but more or less as a spare part/spear carrier and the Lightning certainly would have won even without him and look no worse for wear without him. Relying on a 19 year old to replace Kapanen was foolish. Lehtonen, overage Euro's work out about 10 percent of the time at best.

 

  So it is easy to blame Andersen who deserves a large portion to be sure but Campbell was decent, it is easy to say it is another wasted postseason by Marner and Matthews who were large in the regular season and very ordinary against Montreal, and that is true. If Tavares hadnt gotten hurt? Sure, throw it in the mix as well. But to me it is the makeup of the veteran adds who have never won a cup that made the largest difference. A super quick look at the Canadien adds in the offseason

 

PERRY former cup winner one of the biggest pains in the arse to play against especially in the postseason

TOFFOLI Former cup winner built for the playoffs

STAAL Former cup winner, long time captain.

JAKE ALLEN Former cup winner and starting goalie finally solved the Habs desperate need for a 2G

EDMUNDSON Won a cup with the Blues, a solid middle pairing defender with snarl

JOSH ANDERSON Not a cup winner but a hard player who goes all out 200 feet every shift

 

In retrospect, the simple way to put it is the Leafs got the names, the Habs added the guys who do what it takes to win, especially in the playoffs. That is why they moved on and have the Jets on the brink and the Leafs are home pondering where it all went wrong.

 

 

 

This.  Exactly this.   All day this.

[WordsOfWisdom]

On 6/6/2021 at 6:56 PM, yave1964 said:

SUBTRACTIONS

Barrie went to the Oilers where he was used properly and found his game and was dynamic.

 

How was Barrie used improperly in Toronto?  He was playing on an all-offence, no-defence team with a star-studded group of forwards.  Face it, the guy just sucked in Toronto (like so many players do when the spotlight is on them).

 

On 6/7/2021 at 8:31 AM, ruxpin said:

Kapanen was dealt to the Penguins for a first, he had 30 points in 40 games, essentially on pace for a 61 point season in a full year

 

A mistake to get rid of Kapanen, especially for a draft pick. The Leafs needed someone who could play now. I mentioned that one too last season when I suggested the Leafs deal him to Philly for Phil Myers, and everyone shat on that idea. 

 

 

On 6/7/2021 at 8:31 AM, ruxpin said:

Ceci left for the Penguins had a damn fine year leading the team at plus 18 and sored at a decent clip for a second pairing blueliner

 

I remember mentioning Ceci's defensive prowess on the Leafs many times and everyone sh_t on it. 

 

On 6/7/2021 at 8:31 AM, ruxpin said:

ADDS

Jumbo Joe came aboard and was solid

Foligno came over for a first and wasnt a big factor

Spezza was resigned for the league minimum and had a fine year as a third liner

Simmonds came over as a free agent and continues to erode

Brodie was added from the Flames to replace Barrie

Galchenyuk came over in a trade and was put into the top six

Jimmy Vesey was added, found wanting and shipped out

Bogosian was added as a depth defender from the champion Lightning and was a decent third pair guy

Lehtonen came over from Europe, couldnt hack it and was donated to the Jackets.

Nick robertson was expected to hit as a middle six winger as a 19 year old, couldnt stay healthy and was a non factor

 

I think perhaps it's time to subtract Dubas and add ME as the GM of the Leafs.     

 

 

[TropicalFruitGirl26]

27 minutes ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

 

I think perhaps it's time to subtract Dubas and add ME as the GM of the Leafs.     

 

 

 

Only on a projected, prorated contract though, right? 

[WordsOfWisdom]

1 hour ago, TropicalFruitGirl26 said:

 

Only on a projected, prorated contract though, right? 

 

One of the problems with the game today is that I believe GMs often OVERTHINK things when the obvious decision is staring right at them. I think many modern GMs spend too much time looking at "advanced stats" and not enough time looking at the basics. It's not that hard. 

 

• Analyze the core stats.
• Analyze the player's track record (ie: playoff success, leadership positions on previous teams, etc).
• Analyze the cap space available and how much you can afford to ALLOCATE to a given position.

 

We've been 15+ years into salary cap land in the NHL and I've never seen a GM make the ultimate "cap trade" yet:

 

Trade the HIGHEST PAID (and BEST) player on your team for 2-3 guys (each making 1/2 or 1/3 the salary) who are 2nd line/secondary scoring type depth players. 

 

If you rolled out a team that was three lines deep of 2nd line players, that would be the most potent NHL team you could construct in a cap era. (Law of Diminishing Returns.) Blowing everything on ONE line (just to have the best player at a given position) and then filling in with crap around the edges does not make for a strong team.

 

The current NHL model is to have a 10/10 line 1, a 5/10 line 2, a 3/10 line 3, and a 1/10 line 4.

 

My model would be to have a 8/10 line 1, 8/10 line 2, 8/10 line 3, and a 1/10 line 4.  And I bet you I could achieve that within the constraints of a salary cap system.

 

 

 

[OccamsRazor]

20 hours ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

I mentioned that one too last season when I suggested the Leafs deal him to Philly for Phil Myers, and everyone shat on that idea. 

 

Yes i still don't like that deal. I need more for a 6-5 right hand defenseman who is only 24.

 

I know he didn't have a great year but the whole team stank. It happens.

 

There is a chance to rebound for the whole team.

 

No need to panic in Philly can't speak for Tronno.