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Prorating Statistics: How to Extrapolate Statistical Data


WordsOfWisdom

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Since so many people struggle with this, I thought I'd start a TUTORIAL thread on prorating sports statistics!   😃👍

 

In this thread we will go through the math involved in the extrapolation of data. We'll explore forecasting, and how to factor in age, injuries, and other performance factors. 

 

We will look at real world player examples, and crunch the numbers.

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Let's get started!   :) 

 

LESSON 1:  First let's examine how player performance changes with age:

 

age.png.c40f56f0f2d6a14c729110739232fd9a.png

 

Source: A New Look at Aging Curves for NHL Skaters (part 1)

https://hockey-graphs.com/2017/03/23/a-new-look-at-aging-curves-for-nhl-skaters-part-1/

 

As you can see, players in the NHL peak in their early to mid 20's and then performance begins to gradually decline, falling noticeably at age 37+.

 

Any forecast that takes data from a player's prime and extrapolates it outward to the end of their career will almost certainly be wrong. The player will clearly underperform according to the estimate.

 

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55 minutes ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

Since so many people struggle with this, I thought I'd start a TUTORIAL thread on prorating sports statistics!   😃👍

 

In this thread we will go through the math involved in the extrapolation of data. We'll explore forecasting, and how to factor in age, injuries, and other performance factors. 

 

We will look at real world player examples, and crunch the numbers.

Most people here know how to pro rate statistics.

 

We just don't care for the Bullsh t of it all.

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37 minutes ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

Let's get started!   :) 

 

LESSON 1:  First let's examine how player performance changes with age:

 

age.png.c40f56f0f2d6a14c729110739232fd9a.png

 

Source: A New Look at Aging Curves for NHL Skaters (part 1)

https://hockey-graphs.com/2017/03/23/a-new-look-at-aging-curves-for-nhl-skaters-part-1/

 

As you can see, players in the NHL peak in their early to mid 20's and then performance begins to gradually decline, falling noticeably at age 37+.

 

Any forecast that takes data from a player's prime and extrapolates it outward to the end of their career will almost certainly be wrong. The player will clearly underperform according to the estimate.

 

That graph certainly only applies to Modern Players.

 

Bobby Orr with modern knee surgeries would have played another 8 to 10 years. So would a lot of 70's and 80's stars. Back then the steep cliff was usually around 32 years old.

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I don't dispute that players tend to decline over time.

 

But there's a reason the graph is an average and that's that there are a not insignificant number of players above that line and a significant number of players below it.

 

There are players who remain productive.

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