Can/Will Ovie pass Gretzky in All Time Goals?

[Alexandron]

Agree. His contract and his chase Gretzky's goal mark are real.

[J0e Th0rnton]

Slowing down? Maybe, but he is still a PPG player and just won a cup and every time I think his goal scoring is dropping off, BOOM 50 goal season

[TropicalFruitGirl26]

3 hours ago, Hockey Junkie said:

What are they thinking in Washington?  That Ovy is the NHL's version of Brady?  Timeless?  He is 35!!!  He has already shown he is slowing down.  Is this simply a "thank you" contract?  I do not get this.

 

Capitals are definitely taking a chance giving a soon to be 36 year old a five year extension at a 9.5M cap hit per.

But you know what? It's a well calculated risk.
Ovechkin is still a premier player, keeps himself in fantastic shape and very well COULD play until he is 41.

Sure, he IS slowing down, but him slowing down means he is still on par with many of the NHL's good players..... sorta a 75% Ovie is as good or better than 100% other players, kinda thing.

And the Gretzky goal record he is chasing will give him extra motivation to stay in peak shape too.

[OccamsRazor]

That is strange way to spell Ovenchicken!!!

 

Learn something new every day....

[WordsOfWisdom]

4 hours ago, Hockey Junkie said:

What are they thinking in Washington?  That Ovy is the NHL's version of Brady?  Timeless?  He is 35!!!  He has already shown he is slowing down.  Is this simply a "thank you" contract?  I do not get this.

 

Yes.  They want him to retire as a Capital.   

 

He's not going to be chasing any of Gretzky's records, but he will finish 2nd.  It's going to take him the bulk of this final contract to pass Gordie but he'll probably get there. 

 

[Alexandron]

1 hour ago, OccamsRazor said:

That is strange way to spell Ovenchicken!!!

 

Learn something new every day....

Here is more to learn :

Last name Ovechkin;

Ovechka - means "lamb"; "young sheep" from Russian translation.

[Alexandron]

1 hour ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

 

Yes.  They want him to retire as a Capital.   

 

He's not going to be chasing any of Gretzky's records, but he will finish 2nd.  It's going to take him the bulk of this final contract to pass Gordie but he'll probably get there. 

 

I still think his main goal in his career - to pass Gretzky record.

[radoran]

1 hour ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

He's not going to be chasing any of Gretzky's records, but he will finish 2nd.

 

He would have had a better chance if he had two full seasons these past two years.

 

In 2019-20 he was "on pace" for 58 goals and last year for 44.

 

Another 30 goals on that total puts him in 4th, six behind Jagr.

 

It's weird that they don't count it that way, isn't it? It's not his fault there was a pandemic.

 

Would not surprise me if he averaged ~30 a year on this deal, nor would it surprise me to see him lace them up at 42 to get the record if he's ~20 goals back or something. Obviously pending injury, but the guy's been a tank.

 

[pilldoc]

1 hour ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

He's not going to be chasing any of Gretzky's records, but he will finish 2nd.  It's going to take him the bulk of this final contract to pass Gordie but he'll probably get there.

 

Oh he absolutely can get there ....

 

At Ovie's current rate he scores 0.6 goals/game (730/1197).  Guess what ... Gretzky's goal rate was also 0.6 goals/game (894/1487).

 

With a 5 yr deal and play ~80 games/yr that equal another 400 games for Ovie.  Add that to his current 1197 total games so far that equals 1597 total games and at is current pace that would give him 973 goals.  He is only 164 goals away.  All he has to do is average 33 goals per year for the next 5 years and he ties/breaks Gretzky's record. 

 

Matter of fact except for the COVID year last year Ovie hs EXCEED 33 goals /year EVERY year except 2016-17.

He absolutely has a very realistic chance of breaking Gretzky's All Time goals scored record ....Now total points is a completely story. Nobody will touch Gretzky's All time Total Points.

 

[pilldoc]

8 minutes ago, radoran said:

 

He would have had a better chance if he had two full seasons these past two years.

 

In 2019-20 he was "on pace" for 58 goals and last year for 44.

 

Another 30 goals on that total puts him in 4th, six behind Jagr.

 

It's weird that they don't count it that way, isn't it? It's not his fault there was a pandemic.

 

Would not surprise me if he averaged ~30 a year on this deal, nor would it surprise me to see him lace them up at 42 to get the record if he's ~20 goals back or something. Obviously pending injury, but the guy's been a tank.

 

 

ya beat me to it by 7 minutes! LOL!

 

[pilldoc]

12 minutes ago, radoran said:

Would not surprise me if he averaged ~30 a year on this deal,

 

Would not surprise at all that after the next 2 seasons he WILL be 2nd All Time.  He is only 71 away from Gordie.  That is back to back 36 goal seasons.  IMO, Ovie can absolutely achieve that.

[Alexandron]

Here is an article from May 19,2021 about his chances:

https://www.nbcsports.com/northwest/kraken/nhl-all-time-goals-leaders-can-ovechkin-top-gretzky

 

 

[Icechipper]

Contract includes dental line item!

[TropicalFruitGirl26]

Ovechkin has a lot of work and a lot of staying healthy to do, but I agree with Doc, he absolutely can surpass the all time goal scoring mark.
32, 33 goals a year for him is very doable.

Especially if he exceeds those numbers over the next two seasons, he will have that much less per year after that, when presumably he "slows down" even more, to achieve in order to stay on pace.

Not a Caps fan at all, but I must admit, I am intrigued by this quest of his.

Edited August 3, 2021 by TropicalFruitGirl26

[WordsOfWisdom]

7 hours ago, Alexandron said:

I still think his main goal in his career - to pass Gretzky record.

 

I'm sure HIS goal was to pass Gretzky, but given the two COVID-shortened seasons recently (and the third one coming up this fall + the next lockout shortened season when the CBA expires), that dream is over. 

 

6 hours ago, radoran said:

He would have had a better chance if he had two full seasons these past two years.

 

In 2019-20 he was "on pace" for 58 goals and last year for 44.

 

This is why I was saying that covid has cost Ovie some historic records. For other players like McDavid and Matthews, it has cost them any chance of ever getting there either. The only difference is Ovie got shut down at the end of his career while McDavid and Matthews have been shut down from hockey's scoring records in their prime. 

 

Imagine Wayne Gretzky losing half a season during his 200 point year. That's the equivalent of what just happened to McDavid. 

 

Imagine Brett Hull losing half a season during his 80+ goal year. That's the equivalent of what just happened to Matthews.

 

They can't get those years back. At least Ovie got most of his prime hockey in uninterrupted. 

 

[WordsOfWisdom]

6 hours ago, pilldoc said:

With a 5 yr deal and play ~80 games/yr that equal another 400 games for Ovie.

 

It's more realistic that we assume the NHL won't play a full 82 game season, and injuries are going to start affecting Ovie. Most likely, Ovie plays about 50-60 games/yr for the next five years. So realistically, he's got about 300 games to work with. 

 

Over the next five years, his GPG will drop rapidly. I think he's going to plummet into the 25-goal range (if he were playing a full 82-game season, but he won't be). Therefore, it's much more realistic to assume that Ovie gets ~20 goals per season (on average) the rest of the way in. 

 

Thus, 5 x 20 = 100 goals. 

 

730 + 100 = 830 goals.

 

His trajectory is such that he'll squeeze past Gordie for 2nd but fall into the abyss between Gordie and Wayne.   

[TropicalFruitGirl26]

On 8/3/2021 at 8:54 PM, WordsOfWisdom said:

 

It's more realistic that we assume the NHL won't play a full 82 game season, and injuries are going to start affecting Ovie. Most likely, Ovie plays about 50-60 games/yr for the next five years. So realistically, he's got about 300 games to work with. 

 

Over the next five years, his GPG will drop rapidly. I think he's going to plummet into the 25-goal range (if he were playing a full 82-game season, but he won't be). Therefore, it's much more realistic to assume that Ovie gets ~20 goals per season (on average) the rest of the way in. 

 

Thus, 5 x 20 = 100 goals. 

 

730 + 100 = 830 goals.

 

His trajectory is such that he'll squeeze past Gordie for 2nd but fall into the abyss between Gordie and Wayne.   

 

Those would be some of the lesser scenarios, which of course, ARE valid given what we've all been through the last two years and what continues to go on, but perhaps he DOES have that outside shot of getting to Gretzky, and seasons won't be shortened, or he exceeds expectations on goals even if they are.

Either way, I still say it's an intriguing journey to watch.
The fact that there is a very real likelihood he will fall short makes it that much more exciting anyway, than if he were "guaranteed" to get there eventually.
Makes it more of a "watch Ovechkin while you can" situation.

I can certainly see myself squeezing in some peeks at Caps games, even if I don't watch the whole game or in between games of teams I follow regularly, JUST to see if I can catch him taking further steps towards #99!

Looking at it that way, it may be a stroke of genius on the part of Washington paying Ovechkin that much money for that amount of time, knowing that, even if the team sucks over the next five years, there is always #8 to watch.

Edited August 5, 2021 by TropicalFruitGirl26

[pilldoc]

11 hours ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

It's more realistic that we assume the NHL won't play a full 82 game season, and injuries are going to start affecting Ovie. Most likely, Ovie plays about 50-60 games/yr for the next five years. So realistically, he's got about 300 games to work with. 

 

I respectfully disagree.  Ovie has been one of the most consistent players on the ice and has never had a major injury.  Except for missing maybe a game here or there he plays almost the entire season.  To make an "assumption" he is suddenly going to miss 30-40 games a year is being extremely disingenuous.  Making a statement like that is being extremely short sighted.  This is not Malkin or Letang who every year seams to miss 25+ games. It is more realistic he will play almost all the games in his new contract. 

 

11 hours ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

Over the next five years, his GPG will drop rapidly. I think he's going to plummet into the 25-goal range

 

You can't make that assumption.  You have absolutely zero facts backing up that claim. 

 

11 hours ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

Therefore, it's much more realistic to assume that Ovie gets ~20 goals per season (on average) the rest of the way in. 

 

Again ..I strongly disagree.  For his career he is at 0.6 goals per game.  To "assume" he will average ~20 goals per season drops him to ~0.25 goals per game.  You are making some wild assumptions that all of a sudden his game is going into the crapper.

 

Funny you want to make all the claims in the world with your projected statistics that Matthews had back to back 50 goal years (which he didn't) yet here you are down playing those very same type of statistics showing that Ovie has a very realistic chance at catching or surpassing Gretzky with the All Time goal record.  Talk about calling the kettle black. 

 

Bottom line, Ovie has incredible super star talent.  It will be fun seeing him chase this record.  He may get there or he may not get.  If he does, great, it will be a great achievement for him.  If he misses out it won't be because is game suddenly goes in the gutter.

 

 

 

[radoran]

52 minutes ago, pilldoc said:

Making a statement like that is being extremely short sighted.

 

52 minutes ago, pilldoc said:

You can't make that assumption.  You have absolutely zero facts backing up that claim. 

 

You do know who you're talking to, right?

 

Here, I made this chart to show something and it is very revealing.

 

 

[ruxpin]

13 hours ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

It's more realistic that we assume the NHL won't play a full 82 game season, and injuries are going to start affecting Ovie. Most likely, Ovie plays about 50-60 games/yr for the next five years. So realistically, he's got about 300 games to work with. 

 

DON'T BE IRATE, PRO-RATE!

 

Edited August 4, 2021 by ruxpin

[WordsOfWisdom]

13 hours ago, pilldoc said:

I respectfully disagree.  Ovie has been one of the most consistent players on the ice and has never had a major injury.  Except for missing maybe a game here or there he plays almost the entire season.  To make an "assumption" he is suddenly going to miss 30-40 games a year is being extremely disingenuous.  Making a statement like that is being extremely short sighted.  This is not Malkin or Letang who every year seams to miss 25+ games. It is more realistic he will play almost all the games in his new contract. 

 

I agree. Which is why he's "due".  Every player "like" Ovie in the past has had torn ACL's/MCL's, concussions, or other major injuries that cost them almost an entire season. We need look no further than his fellow countrymen: Pavel Bure and Alexander Mogilny. 

 

I didn't say 30-40 games missed. I said he would probably play 50-60 games, so that means missing ~20-30 per season and it was a combination of injuries + NHL lockouts + covid lockdowns. Some combination of those three things bringing his number of games down.  

 

13 hours ago, pilldoc said:

You can't make that assumption.  You have absolutely zero facts backing up that claim. 

 

Yes I can, and yes I do!  It's called AGE.  How can you not know this?   

 

13 hours ago, pilldoc said:

Funny you want to make all the claims in the world with your projected statistics that Matthews had back to back 50 goal years (which he didn't) yet here you are down playing those very same type of statistics showing that Ovie has a very realistic chance at catching or surpassing Gretzky with the All Time goal record.  Talk about calling the kettle black. 

 

Every player in NHL history has declined in performance prior to retirement.  ALL OF THEM.

 

Matthews is YOUNG and in the PRIME of his career. He not only got his "50" goal season, but this past season he hit the equivalent of 60 goals, putting Matthews into Ovechkin/Bure level scoring territory. Any more steps forward and Matthews will be in Brett Hull scoring territory. 

 

By contrast, Ovie is old/older, has logged a lot of miles, and is nearing the END of his career.  

 

Is it possible for Ovie to get there? It's possible.... but unlikely.  Everyone here is thinking Ovie will score 50 goals per year forever with no decline. Everyone here is assuming no injuries and no other league-wide game stoppages. THAT is the unrealistic position to take.

 

If you're projecting 5 x 50 = 250 goals that's very unlikely. 5 x 40 = 200 goals is unlikely.

 

What you're gonna get is something like this:

 

• 40
• 30
• 25
• 20
• 15

 

 

 

[WordsOfWisdom]

AND let's not forget that NHL rule changes could be a factor!

 

The game might change within the next five years and get back to being a physical, hitting-first game again. Ovie might have to play some of those years in late 90's/early 2000's style hockey era where guys go head hunting and try to knock him out on every shift.

 

Ovie has played his entire career in an era without clutching and grabbing (2005+). What if it came back again starting next season?

 

Lots of variables to consider. I don't want to sound like a debbie downer but I'm just sayin.   

 

[WordsOfWisdom]

Ovie needs an average of 32.8 (33) goals per season to pass Gretzky. 

 

I think his best chance to pass Gretzky is to sign a 3-yr contract AFTER his new 5-yr deal expires. That'll take him up to age ~43 (or so) and IF he can play to that age and IF he still wants to play in the NHL and not the KHL, then that's his BEST chance to pass Gretzky.

 

 

[flyercanuck]

I sense something coming....

 

Headline "Matthews passes Gretzky alltime goal record!"

(WoW prorated of course)

 

 

[pilldoc]

9 hours ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

Yes I can, and yes I do!  It's called AGE.  How can you not know this? 

 

No you can't .... every player is different. End of story.

 

9 hours ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

He not only got his "50" goal season, but this past season he hit the equivalent of 60 goals

 

No he didn't end of story ....

 

 

I'm done debating the "50" goal non-sense.  

 

Until Ovie proves that he is actually slowing down ..... his projected course is on target and realistic.  

 

You always want to pro-rate stats to fit YOUR narrative and you are unwilling to accept anything else.

 

I'm done ......

 

Like I said before Ovie has a legitimate shot to catch Gretzky. If he gets there or not is yet to be seen.  Bookmark this page and come back to me in 5 years.  If he is well short of the mark I will be happy to eat crow.

 

as my daughter says ....later gator .....

Edited August 5, 2021 by pilldoc