Can/Will Ovie pass Gretzky in All Time Goals?

[flyercanuck]

2 hours ago, pilldoc said:

 

 

 

as my daughter says ....later gator .....

 

Anytime porcupine!

[ruxpin]

Let G be the category of non-abelian semi-spectral group-topoi, and let F be the derived cohomology functor associated to the semi-stable simplicial bundles over the generic co-frame complex B of the universal stack fibered over the Mori dream space by twisted copies of hyper-Kaehler Cayley graphs of the derived fundamental groups (twisted in the usual way by the discrete Laplace-Beltrami operator) of the universal cover of the schemification of the category G.

 

Sorry guys, by my math, Ovechkin doesn't have a chance.

[radoran]

28 minutes ago, ruxpin said:

Let G be the category of non-abelian semi-spectral group-topoi, and let F be the derived cohomology functor associated to the semi-stable simplicial bundles over the generic co-frame complex B of the universal stack fibered over the Mori dream space by twisted copies of hyper-Kaehler Cayley graphs of the derived fundamental groups (twisted in the usual way by the discrete Laplace-Beltrami operator) of the universal cover of the schemification of the category G.

 

Sorry guys, by my math, Ovechkin doesn't have a chance.

 

What about the litmus configuration?

 

 

[pilldoc]

41 minutes ago, ruxpin said:

Let G be the category of non-abelian semi-spectral group-topoi, and let F be the derived cohomology functor associated to the semi-stable simplicial bundles over the generic co-frame complex B of the universal stack fibered over the Mori dream space by twisted copies of hyper-Kaehler Cayley graphs of the derived fundamental groups (twisted in the usual way by the discrete Laplace-Beltrami operator) of the universal cover of the schemification of the category G.

lol

Sorry guys, by my math, Ovechkin doesn't have a chance.

I think I finally found the correct formula(s) for both Ovie and Matthews and their respective goal outputs for the next few years….

 

[ruxpin]

1 hour ago, pilldoc said:

I think I finally found the correct formula(s) for both Ovie and Matthews and their respective goal outputs for the next few years….

 

 

That's the Corsi equation right there.   Well done!

[pilldoc]

14 minutes ago, ruxpin said:

 

That's the Corsi equation right there.   Well done!

Great! What do I win…. A year supply of Halibut!

[WordsOfWisdom]

9 hours ago, pilldoc said:

No you can't .... every player is different. End of story.

 

Every PLAYER is different but every HUMAN ages. You can't beat the clock.

 

I understand the point you're TRYING to make.... but you're getting angry at me for pointing out basic biology. 

 

Ovie at 40 won't be the same guy he was at 25. 

 

9 hours ago, pilldoc said:

19 hours ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

He not only got his "50" goal season, but this past season he hit the equivalent of 60 goals

 

No he didn't end of story ....

 

 

41/52x82~=65 

 

My statement is a true statement. It's not something you can just argue down. It's not "agree to disagree". You're wrong.  

 

True statement: "Auston Matthews reached the equivalent of a 60+ goal season (in a normal 82-game season) in the covid shortened 2020-21 season."

 

 

 

Edited August 5, 2021 by WordsOfWisdom

[WordsOfWisdom]

9 hours ago, pilldoc said:

You always want to pro-rate stats to fit YOUR narrative and you are unwilling to accept anything else.

 

I'm done ......

 

You let your emotions get in the way of your thinking. 

 

Everything you said above is a lie. 

 

You are comparing Matthews (in his prime) to Ovie (nearing retirement).  Apples to oranges. I prorate apples differently than oranges. Yes absolutely. Guilty as charged for using math, NHL history, and basic human biology to always predict player performance accurately.

 

Edited August 5, 2021 by WordsOfWisdom

[WordsOfWisdom]

Sometimes I think the most valuable service I provide to this forum is a different point of view.   

 

 

 

 

 

[pilldoc]

22 minutes ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

 

Every PLAYER is different but every HUMAN ages. You can't beat the clock.

 

I understand the point you're TRYING to make.... but you're getting angry at me for pointing out basic biology. 

 

Ovie at 40 won't be the same guy he was at 25. 

 

 

41/52x82~=65 

 

My statement is a true statement. It's not something you can just argue down. It's not "agree to disagree". You're wrong.  

 

True statement: "Auston Matthews reached the equivalent of a 60+ goal season (in a normal 82-game season) in the covid shortened 2020-21 season."

 

 

 

 

19 minutes ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

 

You let your emotions get in the way of your thinking. 

 

Everything you said above is a lie. 

 

You are comparing Matthews (in his prime) to Ovie (nearing retirement).  Apples to oranges. I prorate apples differently than oranges. Yes absolutely. Guilty as charged for using math, NHL history, and basic human biology to always predict player performance accurately.

 

 

 

 

 

This space is intentionally left blank …..

[flyercanuck]

1 hour ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

 

 

True statement: "Auston Matthews reached the equivalent of a 60+ goal season (in a normal 82-game season) in the covid shortened 2020-21 season."

 

 

 

 

 

This is true.

 

This is also true... Auston Matthews has never scored 60 goals in a season...as a matter of fact, Auston Matthews has never scored 50 goals in a season.

[WordsOfWisdom]

35 minutes ago, flyercanuck said:

 

 

This is true.

 

This is also true... Auston Matthews has never scored 60 goals in a season...as a matter of fact, Auston Matthews has never scored 50 goals in a season.

 

Correct. 

 

And if we go by Alex Ovechkin's career history, Matthews may never hit 50 or 60 goals because his performance is at its peak right now and will soon start to decline.  Ovechkin had his best season in his third year in the NHL. He has never reached that goal total or point total since.  

 

It's quite possible that we just witnessed Auston Matthew's BEST season of his entire NHL career.  This may have been his Mogilny/Selanne/insert whoever you want as a comparison season. Many elite players have ONE outstanding season that is better than anything else they had ever done before or will ever do after. This may have been it for AM. 

 

If you cut Teemu Selanne's rookie season short by 40 games then he never gets to 76 goals and never comes close ever again.  It would completely change his NHL history. 

 

Cutting this season short may have robbed AM of his only 60 goal season and will now redefine his entire career going forward. The odds of any player scoring 60+ goals is slim, even for the very best players. You need immense talent, youth, and you need everything to break just right.  AM had all of those. The odds of him getting it all again (at a 60-goal level) is slim to none. 

 

[radoran]

3 hours ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

True statement: "Auston Matthews reached the equivalent of a 60+ goal season (in a normal 82-game season) in the covid shortened 2020-21 season."

 

True statement: Ovechkin reached the equivalent of 30 more goals over the course of the past two seasons losing no time due to injury.

 

Neither of these statements matter.

[Buffalo Rick]

On 8/3/2021 at 12:45 PM, TropicalFruitGirl26 said:

 

Capitals are definitely taking a chance giving a soon to be 36 year old a five year extension at a 9.5M cap hit per.

But you know what? It's a well calculated risk.
Ovechkin is still a premier player, keeps himself in fantastic shape and very well COULD play until he is 41.

Sure, he IS slowing down, but him slowing down means he is still on par with many of the NHL's good players..... sorta a 75% Ovie is as good or better than 100% other players, kinda thing.

And the Gretzky goal record he is chasing will give him extra motivation to stay in peak shape too.

He will never catch Gretzky and shouldn't.  Wayne did it in less games.   Ovy is not in Gretzky's league as a scorer.  I would say Super Mario, Gordie Howe and maybe a couple others are in that conversation.  Early career ending injuries kept guys like Bossy and Martin off the list.  Even did Orr in early.  Ovy is great. But he is not the offensive maniac that Gretzky was.  And Ill say that Messier was better for sure.

[WordsOfWisdom]

16 hours ago, pilldoc said:

 

17 hours ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

 

You let your emotions get in the way of your thinking. 

 

Everything you said above is a lie. 

 

You are comparing Matthews (in his prime) to Ovie (nearing retirement).  Apples to oranges. I forecast prorate apples differently than oranges. Yes absolutely. Guilty as charged for using math, NHL history, and basic human biology to always predict player performance accurately.

 

 

 

 

Caught and corrected a typo.   

 

Forecast: To make educated predictions about the future using available data.

Prorate: To extrapolate player performance (generally in the short term) assuming the same pace of performance, for comparison or forecasting purposes.

 

In other words, prorating is a method to make equal comparisons between players and to forecast future performance.

 

[WordsOfWisdom]

7 hours ago, Hockey Junkie said:

He will never catch Gretzky

 

I think if he signs ANOTHER contract after this 5-yr contract and plays into his 40's he very well might. 

 

7 hours ago, Hockey Junkie said:

and shouldn't

 

I agree. I don't like the idea of a Russian-born player being the #1 scorer all-time in the NHL.  I know Americans are generally neutral on this, but it does matter to Canadians given that Russia is still our #1 rival in hockey. We know that a country like Russia would hold it against us and be a "sore winner" so to speak.

 

7 hours ago, Hockey Junkie said:

Ovy is not in Gretzky's league as a scorer.

 

I haven't crunched the numbers on this yet (why bother, everyone will just sh_t all over it)... but I suspect Ovie is already at a point where even if he retired today, he would be regarded as the greatest goal scorer in NHL history, because you have to factor in the different eras each player played in.

 

7 hours ago, Hockey Junkie said:

But he is not the offensive maniac that Gretzky was.

 

Gretzky's playmaking sets him apart from everyone else. 

  

[WordsOfWisdom]

13 hours ago, radoran said:

17 hours ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

True statement: "Auston Matthews reached the equivalent of a 60+ goal season (in a normal 82-game season) in the covid shortened 2020-21 season."

 

True statement: Ovechkin reached the equivalent of 30 more goals over the course of the past two seasons losing no time due to injury.

 

Neither of these statements matter.

 

Okay so let's just delete Ovechkin's 65-goal season from the record books.  Never happened.  That season got cut short by a time-travelling covid virus.  He only played 41 games that season and scored only 32 goals. Darn.  I guess Ovie isn't a 60-goal scorer after all. What a shame.  

 

 

 

[pilldoc]

17 minutes ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

 

Caught and corrected a typo.   

 

Forecast: To make educated predictions about the future using available data.

Prorate: To extrapolate player performance (generally in the short term) assuming the same pace of performance, for comparison or forecasting purposes.

 

In other words, prorating is a method to make equal comparisons between players and to forecast future performance.

 

 

I really don't give a #$%@ anymore of your mindless dribble. 

 

8 minutes ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

 

I don't like the idea of a Russian-born player being the #1 scorer all-time in the NHL. 

 

Gretzky's playmaking sets him apart from everyone else. 

  

 

And there you have it folks ... as I mentioned before, you will try to twist anything to fit your narrative and you just proved it to the world.  You finally showed your true colors .....  I don't give a rip who the all time goal scorer is.  If they earn it they earn it.

 

The only TRUE statement you made is that Gretzky's playmaking is what truly makes him great ....

 

 

Edited August 6, 2021 by pilldoc

[WordsOfWisdom]

4 minutes ago, pilldoc said:

And there you have it folks ... as I mentioned before, you will try to twist anything to fit your narrative and you just proved it to the world.  You finally showed your true colors .....  I don't give a rip who the all time goal scorer is.  If they earn it they earn it.

 

The only TRUE statement you made is that Gretzky's playmaking is what truly makes him great ....

 

Whether I want Ovie to finish 1st or not doesn't affect my predictions.  I can act like a GROWN UP and not let my emotions control me.

 

I'm not "twisting" anything to fit any narrative. WTF do I have to gain here? Do you ever stop for a minute to consider that there is NO LOGIC to your reasoning at all?  What narrative? What is my "narrative" and how do I profit from it? Please explain. 

 

My REPUTATION is the only thing that affects my predictions.  My "narrative" (if I had one) would be to be RIGHT.  Making BAD predictions makes ME look bad. I'm motivated to look good, therefore I make accurate predictions. 

 

 

[Buffalo Rick]

54 minutes ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

 

Okay so let's just delete Ovechkin's 65-goal season from the record books.  Never happened.  That season got cut short by a time-travelling covid virus.  He only played 41 games that season and scored only 32 goals. Darn.  I guess Ovie isn't a 60-goal scorer after all. What a shame.  

 

 

 

He has slowed down.  My money says he will be lucky to get 30 in 82

[pilldoc]

1 hour ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

 

Whether I want Ovie to finish 1st or not doesn't affect my predictions.  I can act like a GROWN UP and not let my emotions control me.

 

I'm not "twisting" anything to fit any narrative. WTF do I have to gain here? Do you ever stop for a minute to consider that there is NO LOGIC to your reasoning at all?  What narrative? What is my "narrative" and how do I profit from it? Please explain. 

 

My REPUTATION is the only thing that affects my predictions.  My "narrative" (if I had one) would be to be RIGHT.  Making BAD predictions makes ME look bad. I'm motivated to look good, therefore I make accurate predictions. 

 

 

 

I don't have the time nor the energy to keep debating such a frivolous subject matter for which the fruits won't be seen for another 5 years.  Frankly I don't give a damn about Ovie and if he reaches Gretzky's All Time career goals or not.  For the time being he has a legitimate chance until he proves otherwise.  We will agree to disagree.  I'm moving on to more worthy topics.  Cheers.  

[Brewin Flames]

On 8/5/2021 at 2:53 PM, radoran said:

 

What about the litmus configuration?

 

 

 

 

It works, it always works....litmus configuration....best film of all time.

[Brewin Flames]

My take on this, is that ovey can and WILL catch and break the great one's goal record, as long as he stays injury free.

[Alexandron]

After reading this thread again I have a question. How many games we are going to have per season after adding a new team Kraken? Probably, more than 82. If more, then Ovechkin will receive more chances to reach his goal. I am sure he wants to overpass Gretzky's record, which no one will pass him after.

 

 

Edited August 13, 2021 by Alexandron

[flyercanuck]

On 8/3/2021 at 9:41 PM, WordsOfWisdom said:

 

I'm sure HIS goal was to pass Gretzky, but given the two COVID-shortened seasons recently (and the third one coming up this fall + the next lockout shortened season when the CBA expires), that dream is over. 

 

 

This is why I was saying that covid has cost Ovie some historic records. For other players like McDavid and Matthews, it has cost them any chance of ever getting there either. The only difference is Ovie got shut down at the end of his career while McDavid and Matthews have been shut down from hockey's scoring records in their prime. 

 

Imagine Wayne Gretzky losing half a season during his 200 point year. That's the equivalent of what just happened to McDavid. 

 

Imagine Brett Hull losing half a season during his 80+ goal year. That's the equivalent of what just happened to Matthews.

 

They can't get those years back. At least Ovie got most of his prime hockey in uninterrupted. 

 

 

Imagine if Gretzky focused solely on scoring goals?