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New Season... and maybe 82 games this time!


WordsOfWisdom

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The Leafs return with largely the same roster they had last season, now back in their usual division again.  :) 

 

Off to a good start... but did this team improve during the off-season?

 

 

(I won't be around too much for the first month of the season because I've got a lot on my plate, but will be back around December.)   

 

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On 10/23/2021 at 11:47 AM, J0e Th0rnton said:

 

Hyman 5 goals in his first 5 games. Been a phenomenal fit and addition to the Oilers.

 

Could you imagine the meltdown if Hyman scores more goals than Matthews this season?🤣

 

Well in a previous hockey lifetime ( pre 2005) the Leafs would have kept Hyman and signed more free agent star power to address weaknesses. 

 

Now we get to watch teams pluck valuable players off our roster due to cap constraints.

 

The Leafs are the franchise hurt the most by the salary cap. 

 

Imagine telling the Yankees or Dodgers that they had to reduce payroll by 50% and kiss goodbye to half their roster. Fat chance of that ever happening in MLB.

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On 10/26/2021 at 11:38 AM, WordsOfWisdom said:

Now we get to watch teams pluck valuable players off our roster due to cap constraints.

 

The Leafs are the franchise hurt the most by the salary cap. 

 

Please. The Leafs couldn't win in a league with more than six teams WITHOUT a salary cap.

 

Maybe if they hadn't signed Tavares for $11M they could have kept Hyman. Instead they're stuck with a terribly overrated player at far above his salary range and that cap problem is 100% their own fault

 

Hyman wasn't "plucked away" he walked because the Leafs had invested on three $10M+ players plus Nylander.

 

They made that decision playing by the same rules everyone else plays under.

 

And, not surprisingly, still can't make it work.

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21 hours ago, radoran said:

Please. The Leafs couldn't win in a league with more than six teams WITHOUT a salary cap.

 

The Leafs "uncapped and enabled" period went from 1990 - 2005.  That's it. 15 years. 

 

From Harold Ballard's death to the lockout and beginning of the salary cap is the only period of time since the championship years of the 60's where the Leafs had both the ownership and the league's approval to spend money on their roster.

 

From 1990 - 2005, the Leafs made four conference final appearances. They SHOULD have been in the Final versus Montreal in 1993 if not for cheating on the part of Kerry Fraser. 

 

21 hours ago, radoran said:

Maybe if they hadn't signed Tavares for $11M they could have kept Hyman. Instead they're stuck with a terribly overrated player at far above his salary range and that cap problem is 100% their own fault

 

But that's the problem: You don't get Tavares for less than $11M. If the Leafs had offered him say $8M, then he signs somewhere else for $11M.  That's the crux of the salary cap in the NHL and why I hate it. Getting Tavares for less money was never an option.  

 

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On 10/26/2021 at 1:43 PM, flyercanuck said:

All I know is 7 games into the Leafs season Auston Matthews (pro-rated of course) is on pace for just under a 12 goal season.

 

I think he should be annointed as the greatest 12 goal (almost) scorer the Leafs have ever had.   :InnocentSmiley:

 

I think Matthews has already had the two best seasons of his career. With age and injuries, it's doubtful that he'll ever achieve those heights again. Just like Crosby and Ovechkin never achieved the same heights as their careers went on.

 

People outside Leaf-land don't see anything special about Matthews' performance the past two seasons, and that's fine. People outside Leaf-land equate the once-in-a-century covid-19 stoppage to being exactly the same thing as a player being injured or not wanting to play when tired, and that's fine.  But to Leafs fans, he had the 2nd greatest goal-scoring season in Leafs history. Better than Mahovlich and Vaive. (Charlie Conacher just barely gets the nod for #1.)  If allowed to play out for the full 82 games, we all know he would have destroyed the single season Leafs record for goals, so it's his by default on account of covid-19. We're not going to play silly "what-if" games and hypothesize fantasy scenarios where Matthews suddenly goes ice cold and doesn't score for the last 25 games of the season. That's BS. He was at 100% health and on pace for ~65 GOALS.  SIXTY-FIVE. Just like nobody questions a Mario Lemieux, there's no doubt Matthews would have got there with 82 games. 

 

 

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23 minutes ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

Getting Tavares for less money was never an option.  

 

Sometimes you've got to let the other guy take the hit.

 

They "had to have Tavares" who has been "fine" in the regular season, but eight points, -13 in the playoffs for them and is now a cap problem. He's the sixth highest cap hit in the league and was tied for 24th in points per game last season at .89. He was 26th the year before that.

 

The Islanders improved when Tavares left and they got nothing for him. Tavares hasn't won anything as captain and his 4 points in 10 games at major international play (Olympics/World Cup) isn't exactly overwhelming.

 

The Leafs paid top dollar for a "good" player and they're stuck with it.

 

13 minutes ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

Just like Crosby and Ovechkin never achieved the same heights as their careers went on.

 

Crosby scored 100+ points in 13-14 (at 26) and again in 18-19. Was "on pace" for 90+ the past two years and has been a point per game player or better from his 104 point season in 13-14 onwards.

 

Ovechkin since 17-18 has scored 49, 51, 48 (on pace for 57), and 24 (on pace for 43). He's "on pace" for 92 goals and 153 points this season...

 

Crosby has two Cups and OV has one in the past six years.

 

Not sure these are the best examples you could have come up with.

 

18 minutes ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

People outside Leaf-land don't see anything special about Matthews' performance the past two seasons, and that's fine.

 

Again you're just making stuff up. I have absolutely no quarrel with Matthews over the past two seasons. 47/80 in 70 games and 41/66 in 52 is nothing to sneeze at.

 

However, if - as you say - Matthews is on the "downside" of his career at 24, you've got Real Problems.

 

Matthews isn't your cap problem. Tavares is. He's been a point per game player once for the Leafs since signing and, again, has 8 points and is -8 in 13 playoff games. For $11M. And he's 31 and signed for three years after this one with a NMC.

 

He's 100% the reason they couldn't keep Hyman.

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27 minutes ago, radoran said:

Sometimes you've got to let the other guy take the hit.

 

They "had to have Tavares" who has been "fine" in the regular season, but eight points, -13 in the playoffs for them and is now a cap problem. He's the sixth highest cap hit in the league and was tied for 24th in points per game last season at .89. He was 26th the year before that.

 

The Islanders improved when Tavares left and they got nothing for him. Tavares hasn't won anything as captain and his 4 points in 10 games at major international play (Olympics/World Cup) isn't exactly overwhelming.

 

The Leafs paid top dollar for a "good" player and they're stuck with it.

 

I agree, but look at where the Leafs were at that moment in time: Matthews and Marner were rookies. The Leafs didn't know what they had there. The opportunity came up for a proven #1 center, one the Leafs had coveted for a long time (and a Toronto boy no less) so they jumped at it. 

 

Being on the Islanders and not having a winning track record sort of goes without saying. The franchise was circling the drain and seemed to be headed towards relocation. Nobody ever pinned the Islanders failures on Tavares here in Toronto. The Islanders have since made a number of good trades and acquisitions to improve their team. They're a defensive powerhouse now. That wasn't the case a few years ago. 

 

27 minutes ago, radoran said:

Crosby scored 100+ points in 13-14 (at 26) and again in 18-19. Was "on pace" for 90+ the past two years and has been a point per game player or better from his 104 point season in 13-14 onwards.

 

Ovechkin since 17-18 has scored 49, 51, 48 (on pace for 57), and 24 (on pace for 43). He's "on pace" for 92 goals and 153 points this season...

 

Crosby has two Cups and OV has one in the past six years.

 

Not sure these are the best examples you could have come up with.

 

Didn't Crosby have something like 120 points in one of his first seasons?  Has he repeated that since?

Didn't Ovechkin have ~65 goals in one of his first seasons? Has Ovechkin had another 65 goal season?

 

That's my point. The chances of Matthews having another season where he would get to 65 goals over 82 games is slim to none.

 

27 minutes ago, radoran said:

Again you're just making stuff up. I have absolutely no quarrel with Matthews over the past two seasons. 47/80 in 70 games and 41/66 in 52 is nothing to sneeze at.

 

However, if - as you say - Matthews is on the "downside" of his career at 24, you've got Real Problems.

 

Not necessarily on the "down side", but I think we've seen the peak and what comes now is going to be something less than what we've seen the past two seasons. No different that what happens to most NHL players. Gretzky, Lemieux, Yzerman, Crosby, Ovechkin, Mogilny, Selanne, Hull, etc........ Name any player in NHL history and look at where their BEST season(s) occur. They come early on and then that's it. They're not duplicated later on. 

 

EDIT: Teemu Selanne and Mario Lemieux are the outliers here. They're the only players I can think of who managed to turn in eye-popping early career numbers late in their career.  

 

27 minutes ago, radoran said:

Matthews isn't your cap problem. Tavares is. He's been a point per game player once for the Leafs since signing and, again, has 8 points and is -8 in 13 playoff games. For $11M. And he's 31 and signed for three years after this one with a NMC.

 

He's 100% the reason they couldn't keep Hyman.

 

At this point, yes I agree. Tavares is the logical pick to move out for cap space.  :) 

 

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22 minutes ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

The opportunity came up for a proven #1 center, one the Leafs had coveted for a long time (and a Toronto boy no less) so they jumped at it. 

 

Yeah, but not so "proven" - he was a good player on a bad team. Good players tend to put up numbers on bad teams.

 

Tavares took a "home town discount" of $11 million dollars to play for a "Stanley Cup contender" and hasn't been out of the first round.

 

One of the most overrated players in recent memory, if not the modern NHL era - from where I sit...

 

22 minutes ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

They come early on and then that's it. They're not duplicated later on. 

 

I mean, Crosby had a 120 point season, sure. And since then he's had four 100+ point seasons, a season where he projected to 132, another where he projected to 137 (4 and 5 seasons after his 120-point campaign).

 

Ovechkin has his 65 goal season, and then five 50+ goal seasons, a 49 goal season, 48-in-68 (project to 58) in 19-20, was on pace for 44 last season at 35 and is on pace for 92 this season (spoiler: he will not score 92).

 

It's really hard to compare current players to players in the 1980s and 1990s. The game is called differently and there are even different rules.

 

Matthews' 80-in-70 season projects to 94 points and his 66-in-52 last season projected to 104 (spolier: he wasn't going to score 64). He'd better be a 90-100 point, 40-50 goal scorer for the next several years but since he's "on pace" for 14 goals and 27 points this season you may have a point. :5a6425fa25331_VikingSkoool:

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2 minutes ago, OccamsRazor said:

That is what the Isles did and haven't looked backed....(glances towards the Leafs.)

 

You mean the eight rounds of playoffs (plus qualifying round), a Cup Final appearance and a Conference Final that the Isles have to the Leafs' - *checks notes* - two plus a qualifying round loss?

 

#wonthesigning

 

🤔

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On 11/1/2021 at 10:54 AM, radoran said:

Yeah, but not so "proven" - he was a good player on a bad team. Good players tend to put up numbers on bad teams.

 

They also tend to win Stanley Cups once you put them on a good team.  (Phil Kessel, Brett Hull, Ray Bourque, Dominik Hasek, and so on......)

 

The thinking was that Tavares would be even better if surrounded by an offensively-minded team with players who were at his level, so that opponents couldn't just focus their efforts on stopping him.  😐

 

On 11/1/2021 at 10:54 AM, radoran said:

Tavares took a "home town discount" of $11 million dollars to play for a "Stanley Cup contender" and hasn't been out of the first round.

 

Yeah I think the "home town discount" died a death long time ago now.  

 

On 11/1/2021 at 10:54 AM, radoran said:

He'd better be a 90-100 point, 40-50 goal scorer for the next several years but since he's "on pace" for 14 goals and 27 points this season you may have a point. :5a6425fa25331_VikingSkoool:

 

😢

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3 minutes ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

The thinking was that Tavares would be even better if surrounded by an offensively-minded team with players who were at his level, so that opponents couldn't just focus their efforts on stopping him.

 

Pretty sure the thinking was

 

Princess Friendship Day GIF by True and the Rainbow Kingdom

 

Again, he's a good player. He's clearly not an $11M player. And I do realize there were "six teams" who were vying for his services - I believe the Flyers to be among them - among them the Sharks who are currently paying Erik Karlsson $11.5M for five years after this one and 36yo Brent Burns $8M a year for three more years if you'd like an example of the braintrust who was going to make that decision.

 

Hindsight is, of course, 20/20 and this could be hindsight if I hadn't been saying it at the time...

 

It's not a new axiom in hockey that sometimes - from where I sit often - the moves you don't make are the best ones.

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On 11/1/2021 at 11:02 AM, radoran said:

 

You mean the eight rounds of playoffs (plus qualifying round), a Cup Final appearance and a Conference Final that the Isles have to the Leafs' - *checks notes* - two plus a qualifying round loss?

 

#wonthesigning

 

🤔

 

It's easier to turn over your entire roster and jettison star players when nobody is watching.  The Islanders had nothing to lose. They were on the verge of becoming Hamilton/Markham/Quebec City/Hartford. The city had all but bid them farewell.  

 

Toronto had gone through it's first proper rebuild in franchise history and fans were ready to see some results after enduring last place finishes. 

 

First season Tavares was here, he was spectacular.  We need to see more of THAT guy again.   :) 

 

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On 11/1/2021 at 6:21 AM, WordsOfWisdom said:

People outside Leaf-land don't see anything special about Matthews' performance the past two seasons, and that's fine.

 

I don't know about that. Whenever I see lists of the top 50, 100, etc, players in the NHL, he's consistently in the top 3-5.

 

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1 hour ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

Toronto had gone through it's first proper rebuild in franchise history and fans were ready to see some results

 

I'd ask how that worked out for them, but we've pretty much seen how that worked out for them.

 

🙄

 

1 hour ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

First season Tavares was here, he was spectacular.  We need to see more of THAT guy again.   :) 

 

Well, I'm sure he'll turn it around at age 31. As you noted earlier, it's what tends to happen with players...

 

 

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23 hours ago, JR Ewing said:

 

I don't know about that. Whenever I see lists of the top 50, 100, etc, players in the NHL, he's consistently in the top 3-5.

 

 

It's a typical Leaf fan pity party. On one hand they'll tell anyone who will listen how truly awesome their players are, and on the other they complain about how underrated they are.

 

And yes, Matthews is usually rated among the best players in the league. He just isn't a 50 goal scorer until he actually scores 50 goals. 

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On 11/2/2021 at 12:41 PM, radoran said:

I'd ask how that worked out for them, but we've pretty much seen how that worked out for them.

 

🙄

 

Isn't it interesting how every other franchise that bottoms out and rebuilds through lottery picks manages to win the Stanley Cup shortly thereafter....... except Toronto and Edmonton?

 

Starting to wonder if Canada's teams are cursed...

 

On 11/2/2021 at 12:41 PM, radoran said:

Well, I'm sure he'll turn it around at age 31. As you noted earlier, it's what tends to happen with players...

 

 

Except that he's surrounded by star players now and they tend to boost each other's stats.  There's a chance Tavares could be a 50-goal scorer if he's playing with Matthews, Marner, and Nylander. Also, the fact that other players take the pressure off him. Opposing "D" can't focus on Tavares because then Matthews gets 50. That's why it's so important to have multiple lines that can score.  :) 

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