Inventing a New Hockey Team Statistic: "Clutch/Choke"

[WordsOfWisdom]

Before you get on me, I realize everything already exists. I won't be the least bit surprised if someone posts a link showing me that this stat has been around forever already in some dark corner of the web. However, since *I've* never heard of it, here's the idea:

 

In honor of the Toronto Maple Leafs (who I believe will be at the very BOTTOM in this statistic), here we go:

 

The CLUTCH statistic is a measure of regular season team performance versus playoff performance. It measures which teams play BETTER when the stakes are high, and which teams (Toronto) FAIL to live up to expectations.

 

The stat is calculated as follows:

 

CLUTCH = (Playoff team winning percentage*) / (Regular season team winning percentage*)

 

*I'm going to redefine these for simplicity into TRUE winning percentages as follows: 

WINNING PERCENTAGE = WINS / GAMES PLAYED.  The end. Anything that is not a win in today's NHL, is a loss. To evaluate games ending in TIES (for the old NHL) you can just remove those from the GP total like they never happened. Thus, 10 tie games = 10 fewer GP. 

 

So, using the Leafs as an example (from last season):

 

Toronto lost in 7 to Montreal (3-4 record ~= .429 winning percentage). In the regular season, Toronto was 35/56 (35 wins in 56 games = .625 winning percentage).

 

Therefore, Toronto's "clutch" stat = .429 / .625 ~= .686

 

If the value is BELOW 1, it means you're a "choker" in the playoffs. If the value is ABOVE 1, it means you play better when it matters the most. If the value = 1, it means you are consistent (regular season and playoffs). 

 

Thoughts?  

Edited November 11, 2021 by WordsOfWisdom

[Podein25]

1 minute ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

Before you get on me, I realize everything already exists.

 

Ok fine, I will go easy on you, but your opening premise is a bit wanting. Like, when you say "everything" do you also mean things that have yet to be invented? 

[WordsOfWisdom]

2 minutes ago, Podein25 said:

 

Ok fine, I will go easy on you, but your opening premise is a bit wanting. Like, when you say "everything" do you also mean things that have yet to be invented? 

 

Sure why not?  lol  

[WordsOfWisdom]

So taking a look at the Leafs for the past five seasons, this is what we find:

 

------------------------------------------ GP--W---------------------------GP-W------------------------------------------------------

2016–17	2016–17	Eastern	Atlantic	4th	82	40	27	—	15	95	251	242	6	2	4	—	16	18	Lost in First Round, 2–4 (Capitals)
2017–18	2017–18	Eastern	Atlantic	3rd	82	49	26	—	7	105	277	232	7	3	4	—	16	21	Lost in First Round, 3–4 (Bruins)
2018–19	2018–19	Eastern	Atlantic	3rd	82	46	28	—	8	100	286	251	7	3	4	—	17	23	Lost in First Round, 3–4 (Bruins)
2019–20[y]	2019–20	Eastern	Atlantic	3rd	70	36	25	—	9	81	238	227	5	2	3	—	10	12	Lost in Qualifying Round, 2–3 (Blue Jackets)
2020–21[z]	2020–21	—	North	1st	56	35	14	—	7	77	187	148	7	3	4	—	18	14	Lost in First Round, 3–4 (Canadiens)

 

Therefore, the Leafs CLUTCH scores from 2016 until now are:

 

(2/6) / (40/82) = .683

(3/7) / (49/82) = .717

(3/7) / (46/82) = .764

(2/5) / (36/70) = .778

(3/7) / (35/56) = .686

 

(In other words, abysmal.)

 

Now let's see how the Leafs CLUTCH scores looked during their championship years in the 1960's:

 

--------------------------------GP--W--L--T---------------------GP-W-L------------------------------------------------------------

1961–62	1961–62	—	—	2nd	70	37	22	11	—	85	232	180	12	8	4	—	40	30	Won in Semifinals, 4–2 (Rangers) Won in Stanley Cup Finals, 4–2 (Black Hawks)[53]
1962–63	1962–63	—	—	1st	70	35	23	12	—	82#	221	180	10	8	2	—	31	16	Won in Semifinals, 4–1 (Canadiens) Won in Stanley Cup Finals, 4–1 (Red Wings)[54]
1963–64	1963–64	—	—	3rd	70	33	25	12	—	78	192	172	14	8	6	—	39	31	Won in Semifinals, 4–3 (Canadiens) Won in Stanley Cup Finals, 4–3 (Red Wings)[55]
1964–65	1964–65	—	—	4th	70	30	26	14	—	74	204	173	6	2	4	—	14	17	Lost in Semifinals, 2–4 (Canadiens)[56]
1965–66	1965–66	—	—	3rd	70	34	25	11	—	79	208	187	4	0	4	—	6	15	Lost in Semifinals, 0–4 (Canadiens)[57]
1966–67	1966–67	—	—	3rd	70	32	27	11	—	75	204	211	12	8	4	—	35	30	Won in Semifinals, 4–2 (Black Hawks) Won in Stanley Cup Finals, 4–2 (Canadiens)[58]

 

(8/12) / [37/(70-11)] = 1.063

(8/10) / [35/(70-12)] = 1.326

(8/14) / [33/(70-12)] = 1.004

(8/12) / [32/(70-11)] = 1.229

 

What an astounding difference. 

 

 

Edited November 11, 2021 by WordsOfWisdom

[WordsOfWisdom]

TRIVIA TIME:

 

Can anyone think of a recent team that would have a high clutch score?     

(This would be a team that routinely creeps into a bottom playoff position and then sets the world on fire in the playoffs.)

 

Perhaps the Montreal Canadiens? 

 

How about some guesses as to the biggest clutch performers in NHL history, and conversely, the biggest chokers in NHL history?

(As defined by the stat of course.)

 

clutch = (playoff winning %) / (regular season winning %)

 

It's just that simple. 

[SaucyJack]

On 11/11/2021 at 6:45 PM, WordsOfWisdom said:

How about some guesses as to …the biggest chokers in NHL history?

It would take work but if you spent the time to calculate your stat for the Washington Capitals starting from 1982-83 season until the present, you’ll no doubt confirm, statistically, the truth of Tony Kornheiser’s “choking dogs” accusation.  Maybe they hold the “record”.

 

He made that phrase famous in the DC region while still a WaPo sportswriter (along with his pal Wilbon) before they both left for greener ESPN pastures and ‘Pardon The Interruption”.  It would have been late 80’s since 1990 was their 3rd most successful playoff run (losing to Bruins/Borque in the East Finals) next to 1998 and 2018.

Edited November 17, 2021 by SaucyJack

[WordsOfWisdom]

2 hours ago, SaucyJack said:

It would take work but if you spent the time to calculate your stat for the Washington Capitals starting from 1982-83 season until the present, you’ll no doubt confirm, statistically, the truth of Tony Kornheiser’s “choking dogs” accusation.  Maybe they hold the “record”.

 

He made that phrase famous in the DC region while still a WaPo sportswriter (along with his pal Wilbon) before they both left for greener ESPN pastures and ‘Pardon The Interruption”.  It would have been late 80’s since 1990 was their 3rd most successful playoff run (losing to Bruins/Borque in the East Finals) next to 1998 and 2018.

 

So let it be written. So let it be done.   

 

--------------------------------------------W--L---T-------------------GP-W

1982–83	1982–83	Wales	Patrick	3rd	80	39	25	16	—	94	306	283	4	1	3	—	11	19	Lost Division Semifinals to New York Islanders, 1–3[6]
1983–84	1983–84	Wales	Patrick	2nd	80	48	27	5	—	101	308	226	8	4	4	—	28	25	Won Division Semifinals vs. Philadelphia Flyers, 3–0 Lost Division Finals to New York Islanders, 1–4[7]
1984–85	1984–85	Wales	Patrick	2nd	80	46	25	9	—	101	322	240	5	2	3	—	12	14	Lost Division Semifinals to New York Islanders, 2–3[8]
1985–86	1985–86	Wales	Patrick	2nd	80	50	23	7	—	107	315	272	9	5	4	—	36	24	Won Division Semifinals vs. New York Islanders, 3–0 Lost Division Finals to New York Rangers, 2–4[9]
1986–87	1986–87	Wales	Patrick	2nd	80	38	32	10	—	86	285	278	7	3	4	—	19	19	Lost Division Semifinals to New York Islanders, 3–4[10]

 

The Clutch stat for the Washington Capitals:

 

(1/4) / [39 / (80 - 16)] = .410 

(4/8) / [48 / (80 - 5)] = .781

(2/5) / [46 / (80 - 9)] = .617

(5/9) / [50 / (80 - 7)] = .811

(3/7) / [38 / (80 - 10)] = .789

 

The 1982-83 season was an epic choke job. 

 

[WordsOfWisdom]

Perhaps a new name is in order?  Instead of calling it "clutch", how about if I called it "Stanley"?   

 

Since the Stanley Cup is the ultimate objective, it only makes sense that a team statistic called "Stanley" would evaluate how each team did towards achieving that goal, based on the expectations placed upon them going in.

 

 

[Tomdog]

I like your idea no matter what you call it.

Is there a way to do this for individual players? 

 

Another stat I wish they kept was goals saved by skaters.

My wild team has Jonas Brodin who generally stops 2-3 goals per year, but it's never added to his goals scored column or registered in any format. 

[WordsOfWisdom]

16 hours ago, Tomdog said:

I like your idea no matter what you call it.

 

Thanks. 

 

16 hours ago, Tomdog said:

Is there a way to do this for individual players?

 

Hmmm. Since it's based on W-L record, I guess you could do it for goalies. Not sure how it could be done for skaters.

 

If we looked at the "Stanley" rating for a goalie, it would measure which goalies play better in the playoffs than in the regular season. 

 

16 hours ago, Tomdog said:

Another stat I wish they kept was goals saved by skaters.

 

You mean when a skater slides down to block the open net and prevents a goal?  

 

16 hours ago, Tomdog said:

My wild team has Jonas Brodin who generally stops 2-3 goals per year, but it's never added to his goals scored column or registered in any format. 

 

Why would it be added to his goals scored?  Wouldn't you just want a stat called "SAVES" and credit him with a save for preventing a goal? 

 

[Tomdog]

9 hours ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

 

Thanks. 

 

 

Hmmm. Since it's based on W-L record, I guess you could do it for goalies. Not sure how it could be done for skaters.

 

If we looked at the "Stanley" rating for a goalie, it would measure which goalies play better in the playoffs than in the regular season. 

 

 

You mean when a skater slides down to block the open net and prevents a goal?  

 

 

Why would it be added to his goals scored?  Wouldn't you just want a stat called "SAVES" and credit him with a save for preventing a goal? 

 

Sure but if they an't call it a save, it really is as good as a goal scored.

[WordsOfWisdom]

3 hours ago, Tomdog said:

Sure but if they an't call it a save, it really is as good as a goal scored.

 

But for statistical integrity, you can't label two different events in hockey with the same stat.  It would have to be given a separate name because a player who saves 50 goals in a season (by shot blocking) is not an offensive dynamo like Auston Matthews. 

 

I think you could realistically call it a "save" (as it is with goalies) and that's all there is to it. Simple.  

 

 

 

[WordsOfWisdom]

On 11/21/2021 at 10:25 AM, WordsOfWisdom said:

Not sure how it could be done for skaters.

 

I thought about this for a bit and now I know how it could be done for skaters:

 

Take any stat you want (G, A, PTS, +/-, PIM, CORSI, etc.) and we compare regular season to playoff performance. Just that easy.

 

Example:

 

For CORSI, it would be the CLUTCH stat applied directly to CORSI (since it's already a percentage).  

For GOALS, we'll do GPG (to get a rate) and apply the CLUTCH stat to the GPG.

(One could also do GPTOI if you prefer using TOI rather than GP.)

 

Basically, I figured it out. Stay tuned for more spreadsheets (lol).  

 

 

 

[Math]

On 11/11/2021 at 7:45 PM, WordsOfWisdom said:

Can anyone think of a recent team that would have a high clutch score?     

(This would be a team that routinely creeps into a bottom playoff position and then sets the world on fire in the playoffs.)

 

Perhaps the Montreal Canadiens? 

 

I was thinking the Stars' 2020, but I got only 1.039 according to your clutch score (I was expecting more). Maybe we should try the Devils and Kings as they qualified as the #8 seed I think.

 

 

On 11/11/2021 at 7:45 PM, WordsOfWisdom said:

How about some guesses as to the biggest clutch performers in NHL history, and conversely, the biggest chokers in NHL history?

(As defined by the stat of course.)

 

I think the North Stars of 1991 should be the #1. .609/.425 = 1.433. They are probably one of the only team with a losing record to reach the Stanley cup final.

 

About choking, the Stars also have had that reputation back in the late 1990s where they were one of the top team in the regular season before fading in the playoffs. Let's give it a try:

 

1997: .429/.649 = .661 (Marchment sucks)

2003: .500/.730 = .685

2004: .200/.617 = .324

2006: .200/.697 = .287

2007: .429/.666 = .644

 

I was surprised not to see the Presidents' trophy edition of 1998 and 1999 but they actually choked later in the playoffs.

[WordsOfWisdom]

23 hours ago, Math said:

I was thinking the Stars' 2020, but I got only 1.039 according to your clutch score (I was expecting more). Maybe we should try the Devils and Kings as they qualified as the #8 seed I think.

 

1995 New Jersey Devils were a middle of the pack team, but they really turned it up a notch in the playoffs:

 

Regular season: 22-18-8  --------> 22/40 =  0.550

Playoffs: 16/20 -------------------------> = 0.800

 

Clutch = 0.800 / 0.550 = 1.454

 

 

[OccamsRazor]

Finally a stat the Flyers can lead in.........amazing about time!!!!!!!!

[FD19372]

The Choking Award should be a combined statue of Bob Clarke, Paul Holmgren, Dsve Scott and Terry Murray.

Edited December 22, 2021 by FD19372

[OccamsRazor]

3 minutes ago, FD19372 said:

The Choking Award should be a combined statue of Bob Clarke, Paul Holmgren, Dsve Scott and Terry Murray.

 

 

Yeah like a Mount Rushmore type one!!!

[yave1964]

Clutch- Vasilevskiy in game 7

 

Choke- Mitch Marner. Mr. October was a great nickname for Reggie Jackson in Baseball, somehow it seems to apply to Mitch as well. As the games get bigger he gets smaller.