Is There a Franchise Problem with Goaltending?

[aziz]

I suspect we will hear ad infinitum after this about how "signing the superstar goalie" didn't work. It'll be checked off - "well, tried that. see? didn't work. Let's get back to the important stuff like making sure we're big down the middle..."

i wouldn't dismiss that out of hand, there is truth there. goalies come and go way faster than other players. very few goalies maintain performance year after year after year, and chasing one through free agency or trade to be your solution for the foreseeable future is begging for a bryzgalov-sized problem. the position just doesn't work that way.

even worse is trying to draft a goalie. if you can't be sure a 30 yearold vet can maintain his play for a few years, what hope is there of accurately projecting a 17 yearold 5, 7, 10 years out?

frankly, i agreed with clarke's point of view, if not exactly the execution. goaltending is luck of the draw. if you can't get lundqvist or rinne, everything else is a gamble, and there is no point in anteing up big to sit at the table. as many successful NHL goalies come from the 5th round and the 1st, and the vast majority that do briefly peak fade away quickly, or have big ups and downs year to year.

where i disagreed with clarke was that when the cards show something somewhat promising, you should let it ride, rather than folding right away. the flyers should have experimented with oulette, should have allowed niitty another season after The Bad Year, and should have put bob in a position to make his case this season.

[terp]

the flyers should have experimented with oulette, should have allowed niitty another season after The Bad Year, and should have put bob in a position to make his case this season.

There was some discussion on this thread earlier about Nitti and the idea that a player can be "ruined" by an organization either through bad position coaching or getting into his head so far as his status with the team. I find it interesting that you mention Ouellet, who never turned into even a good AHL goaltender, as a potential example of a guy that could have been something but was "ruined". Are organizations in any sense "ruining" these players or is it just par for the course? It also begs the question: did Philly ruin Bryzgalov? I don't think so, but if Nitti and Ouellet, why not Bryz?

I'm interested in what people have to say about it but for the time being, allow me to turn the argument on its head and say that given that it is such a crap shoot, can any goaltender really expect a fair, coherent shake from any organization? Is there an organization anywhere that gets it right? Up and down careers and uneven treatment from management sam to be the norm for goaltenders. It comes with the territory. I think it is pretty easy to agree at this point that spending on a UFA is foolish but is there any credible roadmap other than luck?

[aziz]

i don't think oulette was ruined, i'm saying the flyers threw away a roll of the dice for no reason. the entire position is a roll of the dice, and if you aren't currently happy with what you have, the very best you can do is roll again. as it happened, outlette would've been a bust, too. my point was the flyers opted against finding out. that is the MO, very little risk is taken, it is a constant persuit of a known quantity. that method will always underwhelm.

niitty, i don't know about being ruined. injuries have hurt his career as much as anything. again, though, after that terrible season, he was benched in favor of known (and unimpressive) quantity marty biron.

I'm interested in what people have to say about it but for the time being, allow me to turn the argument on its head and say that given that it is such a crap shoot, can any goaltender really expect a fair, coherent shake from any organization?

honestly, that is exactly what a goalie should expect, but it's something the flyers don't give. every time the cards are dealt, stay in the hand to see the flop. if you are constantly folding with just two cards, there is no way you ever see full house. you spent a 1st round pick on oulette, give him some time and see how it goes. give him a real shot to earn starts. he may fail, but find out. see what niitty can do with a semi-cohesive team in front of him. find out what bob looks like with a year of north american experience under his belt. so long as the flyers panic and reach for the established "meh"...that's what they'll have. imagine if the pens had traded for jose theodore after fleury's first couple (not-so-impressive) seasons? or if LA had decided that quick's pedestrian numbers in his sophmore season meant they had to go in a different direction, so they went all-in on craig anderson?

Edited February 7, 2012 by aziz

[canoli]

of course there is and Aziz alluded to it: Roll with the guy who shows promise, don't bail on him after a "bad year" - or worse, a "bad" (i say it again for the 1000th time he was a product of the T-E-A-M) 2nd half of a Rookie Season.

Look at the embarrassments of the 2 rounds of POs and then look further back to February. Realize the team was out of control and stop pretending there's an easy answer - like "Fix Goaltending and all will be well."

Bob should've been our starter this year. Nitty should've been our starter after his on/off year under Hitch. Going way back Esche should've been allowed a sophomore year of ups and downs. Who knows. Maybe he blossoms, maybe not. But for sure you never find out if you ship them out, or sit them on the bench behind a $60-million, 9-year clown.

[Lindbergh31]

If Bryz gave up six goals in less than 30 minutes, we wouldn't be saying "I wouldn't throw Bryz under the bus" - we'd be driving the bus and backing up to see if we hit him hard enough.

Niittymaki was the MVP of the Calder Cup and the MVP of the Olympics - not bad for a guy without Bob's "natural talent/athleticism". Bob's playoff record isn't quite as stellar.

Since Bernie, this organization has not given a rat's ass about goaltending. It's why Bob Clarke is "Mr. Flyer" while Bernie Parent isn't - the organization believes that the forwards won the 74/75 Cups - not the goaltending. I have all the respect in the world for Clarke's Hart Trophies - but they seem to overshadow Bernie's Conn Smythe and Vezinas for the Flyers.

They've consistently gone for the cheap options - bringing in Cechmanek or Bobrovsky from Europe; taking Vanbiesbrouck over Cujo; reclaiming Boucher and plucking Leighton off waivers (twice). Sean Burke. Martin Biron. Robert Esche. Garth Snow.

Develop their own? They have spent four 1/2 round picks on goalies in THIRTY YEARS.

They haven't made the right decision on goalies since Bernie. They lucked into Lindbergh. Hextall had a brilliant rookie run. The team quit on Barber and blamed Cechmanek.

Aside from that, what?

Well said, the ownership and management should shoulder a lot of the blame when it comes to goaltending in Philly. As point out in other posts, Clarke never considered goaltending a big part of a team, never took the time to develop a goalie from within the system. Snider forced Holmgren's hand this summer by having him outbid himself for Bryzgalov's services when there was a few teams looking for goalies. In hindsight signing Vokoun to a short term contract and letting Silent Bob develop would have been the wise choice. Now, from Holmgren's standpoint, where does he go from here. Unless there is a buyout clause in the next CBA that allows teams to buyout a player without it affecting the team's cap then the Flyers will be stuck with Bryzgalov.

[radoran]

i wouldn't dismiss that out of hand, there is truth there. goalies come and go way faster than other players. very few goalies maintain performance year after year after year, and chasing one through free agency or trade to be your solution for the foreseeable future is begging for a bryzgalov-sized problem. the position just doesn't work that way.

If your management believes the only thing to do is to throw decade-long contracts around, I agree that it's not the best move.

I would have taken a "flier" on Nabokov or Vokoun and developed Bob before mortgaging the team for nine years. Signing a "top flight" goalie doesn't have to be a decade-long commitment.

It seems the organization doesn't really have a good track record for handling - or eye for picking - goaltending.

even worse is trying to draft a goalie. if you can't be sure a 30 yearold vet can maintain his play for a few years, what hope is there of accurately projecting a 17 yearold 5, 7, 10 years out?

Yet many have staked a position that our 21-year-old is the "goalie of the future." I do not disagree he should be given the shot, but do not feel there is a guarantee there, either.

There are no guarantees in any draft position, but from 1990-2007 there were 490 goalies taken. Their average NHL games played is 57.

In the top three rounds (134 taken): 114

Top two rounds (85): 138

First Round (40): 195

In comparison, the 2,616 forwards taken in the same years averaged 124 games.

In the top three rounds (924 taken): 231

Top two rounds (616): 288

First Round (299): 410

Forwards play more games than goalies on average, but not so much a higher percentage per round

Top Three Rounds vs. All Players: Forwards 1.86 times as many games played, goalies 2 times as many games played

Top Two Rounds vs. Top Three Round: F 2.32, G 2.42

First Round vs. Top Two Rounds: F 3.3, G 3.42

There is a basic correlation to teams being able to get more out of goalies drafted higher. There are obvious busts. There are obvious free agent miracles.

frankly, i agreed with clarke's point of view, if not exactly the execution. goaltending is luck of the draw. if you can't get lundqvist or rinne, everything else is a gamble, and there is no point in anteing up big to sit at the table. as many successful NHL goalies come from the 5th round and the 1st, and the vast majority that do briefly peak fade away quickly, or have big ups and downs year to year.

Just providing statistics:

Over the same period as above, there were 15 goalies who played more than 100 games taken in the first round (listed by games played to date):

Brodeur, Luongo, Jocelyn Thibault, JSG, Biron, Fleury, Ward, Trevor "Beach Ball" Kidd, Dan Cloutier, Marc Denis, Boucher, Lehtfourin, DiPietro, Price, Jamie Storr, Pascal Leclaire

We can posit that these will join them this season or early next: Rask, Varlamov

Also featured: Al Montoya.

Three in the first never played an NHL game, the last being drafted in 1999. 7 more played less than 10.0

There are four Cup winners and two more that played in the Final.

First round picks have averaged 195 NHL games.

In the fifth, 11 goalies played 100 or more games:

Kiprusoff, Turco, Tommy Salo, Ryan Miller, Brent Johnson, Chris Mason, Andrew Raycroft, Steve Shields, Mikhail Shtalenkov, Mike Smith, Jussi Maarkkanen

55 drafted in the fifth never played an NHL game (13 drafted since 2004). 13 more less than 10.

Kiprusoff and, technically, Maarkkanen played in the Final.

Fifth round picks have averaged 48 NHL games.

You can get a good NHL goalie in the fifth. But not as reliably as in the first. And I'll take your "as many successful" goalies as a bit of hyperbole.

where i disagreed with clarke was that when the cards show something somewhat promising, you should let it ride, rather than folding right away. the flyers should have experimented with oulette, should have allowed niitty another season after The Bad Year, and should have put bob in a position to make his case this season.

Agreed for the most part. (Ouelette went to the Caps in the infamous Oates deal.)

Which proves the point of the thread - the organization has long had a blind spot when it comes to goaltending.

Q.E.D.

all draft info from hockeydb.com as of 2.7.2012 - my Excel download and analysis

[doom88]

i wouldn't dismiss that out of hand, there is truth there. goalies come and go way faster than other players. very few goalies maintain performance year after year after year, and chasing one through free agency or trade to be your solution for the foreseeable future is begging for a bryzgalov-sized problem. the position just doesn't work that way.

even worse is trying to draft a goalie. if you can't be sure a 30 yearold vet can maintain his play for a few years, what hope is there of accurately projecting a 17 yearold 5, 7, 10 years out?

frankly, i agreed with clarke's point of view, if not exactly the execution. goaltending is luck of the draw. if you can't get lundqvist or rinne, everything else is a gamble, and there is no point in anteing up big to sit at the table. as many successful NHL goalies come from the 5th round and the 1st, and the vast majority that do briefly peak fade away quickly, or have big ups and downs year to year.

where i disagreed with clarke was that when the cards show something somewhat promising, you should let it ride, rather than folding right away. the flyers should have experimented with oulette, should have allowed niitty another season after The Bad Year, and should have put bob in a position to make his case this season.

All around excellent post @aziz and I totally agree.

[terp]

honestly, that is exactly what a goalie should expect, but it's something the flyers don't give. every time the cards are dealt, stay in the hand to see the flop. if you are constantly folding with just two cards, there is no way you ever see full house.

I would be more inclined to say that it isn't so much how much time you give but whether you are right or wrong. As you said, drafting, developing and waiting for goaltenders to blossom is messy business and one in which patience is not necessarily rewarded. The Flyers were almost certainly right to give Ouellet and Nitti the heave ho but not for having a bare cuppboard and not for signing Biron, or Bryzgalov (though I give Homer a parse for this last one). Also, you have to play to win and the Flyers haven't drafted a goaltender since 2009 (Nic Riopel and Adam Morrison). I guess they were so thrilled with the development of those two that there was no reason to pick anyone else in the last two drafts.

Edited February 8, 2012 by terp

[aziz]

@radoran

nice write up, i like the analysis. thank you for taking the time on that.

but...

there were 15 goalies who played more than 100 games taken in the first round

...is that what we're really talking about? guys who were able to carve out decent NHL careers? on that front, the flyers have been fine, imo. they've consistently gotten NHL goaltending one way or the other (michael leighton notwithstanding). i was speaking more to the difference making franchise guy. i don't believe there is any advantage there to picking high or low. the natural athletes and the technical standouts tend to go earlier, but that doesn't have anything to do with the nebulous magic of NHL elite goaltending. by your breakdown, brian boucher was a win by the flyers. spent a 1st round pick on him, he went on to play in, what, 300-some NHL games?

leave the total NHL games benchmark aside, and look at the kind of goalies that the flyers haven't been able to get ahold of.

rough list, there'll be controversy, i'm sure, but i'm just trying to make a point:

howard - 2nd round

halak - 9th round

lundqvist - 7th round

quick - 3rd round

thomas - 9th round

backstrom - undrafted

rinne - 8th round

kiprusoff - 5th round

luongo - 1st round

nabokvov - 9th round

niemi - undrafted

vokoun - 9th round

ward - 1st round

fleury - 1st round

hiller - undrafted

miller - 5th round

brodeur - 1st round

roloson - undrafted

i'm sure there are some that people think i should have included and some that i shouldn't have, but whatever. i think you'll find as you look at whomever you'd care to look at, there is little bias towards early draft picks turning into the kind of difference making franchise goalie that has eluded the flyers for so long. yes, an early pick is more likely to get you a guy capable of playing at the NHL level, but i stand by my non-hyperbolic (if inexactly worded) statement that the mid-rounds are as likely to provide the answer to our prayers as the early ones.

Edited February 8, 2012 by aziz

[radoran]

One thing that looking back over the drafts until 1990 really shows you is how much the league has changed over that time frame and how much the "new NHL' really is a different animal.

Another thing I looked at and intend to revisit is where the Flyers drafted and who they "passed up on"

I know they didn't really have a chance at any of the 1st rounders in your list.

The number of Cup-winning and Cup-finalist goalies is a small list.

You want a fun round? Check out the 6th:

Lalime, Turek, Niittymaki, Aebischer, Cechmanek, Esche, Pasi Nurminen, Leighton

That's two Flyer picks and four Flyer goalies.

[yave1964]

As a neutral oberserver (I am a Wings fan) I did not see the logic in all the money spent on Bryz. He has looked very average at best in the playoffs the last two years against Detroit, and he is being payed as an elite goalie but I didnt see him as a top ten. Thought the money saved by trading Richards and Carter would have been better spent shoring up the defense and giving Bob and Boucher a better quality of defense in front of them. Pronger going out didnt help, he has slowed down some but is still one hell of a warrior, I have loved hating him with the Blues and ducks but always admired his game. Timmonen is having a solid year, Carle and Coburn are going to have nice careers, but this defense without Pronger is your biggest problem. Zidlicky is available, so is Kubina, I know they arent sexy pickups like Suter and Weber but they are realisticly available and I think a couple of top four defensemen will fix a lot of the goalie problems.

[doom88]

As a neutral oberserver (I am a Wings fan) I did not see the logic in all the money spent on Bryz. He has looked very average at best in the playoffs the last two years against Detroit, and he is being payed as an elite goalie but I didnt see him as a top ten. Thought the money saved by trading Richards and Carter would have been better spent shoring up the defense and giving Bob and Boucher a better quality of defense in front of them. Pronger going out didnt help, he has slowed down some but is still one hell of a warrior, I have loved hating him with the Blues and ducks but always admired his game. Timmonen is having a solid year, Carle and Coburn are going to have nice careers, but this defense without Pronger is your biggest problem. Zidlicky is available, so is Kubina, I know they arent sexy pickups like Suter and Weber but they are realisticly available and I think a couple of top four defensemen will fix a lot of the goalie problems.

I said that day one.

Regarding the strikeout, I think the Flyers either need to make a significant improvement, or nothing. If they do nothing, the kids get more experience and are more valuable going forward. It's a win-win if Homer plays his cards right. If.

[OH1FlyersFan]

Yes. The problem is Bryz can't stop shots in the shootout.

[radoran]

Yes. The problem is Bryz can't stop shots in the shootout.

That will kill us in the playoffs... ;-)

[OH1FlyersFan]

Thanks for bringing me back down to earth!! Good point. But my fear is it kills us before we get there! I'm beginning to worry about our seeding. How many OTLs is that now, 7 or so? those extra points would be pretty sweet. And who knows how many more of those second points we have to lose before the end of the regular season.

[Vanflyer]

@radoran

I suspect we will hear ad infinitum after this about how "signing the superstar goalie" didn't work. It'll be checked off - "well, tried that. see? didn't work. Let's get back to the important stuff like making sure we're big down the middle..."

No offense Rad, but shouldn't that be every self respecting mans priority??

[Vanflyer]

@Lindbergh31

".....Snider forced Holmgren's hand this summer by having him outbid himself for Bryzgalov's services when there was a few teams looking for goalies. In hindsight signing Vokoun to a short term contract and letting Silent Bob develop would have been the wise choice. Now, from Holmgren's standpoint, where does he go from here. Unless there is a buyout clause in the next CBA that allows teams to buyout a player without it affecting the team's cap then the Flyers will be stuck with Bryzgalov."

Truthfully, I say give Bobs a shot. He is a RFA after next season. Its better to find out what you have (or don't have). I personally don't care if its at the expense of Breezy. Next year he will make 6.5M and the year after that 8M. That is 24.5M in three years. I am sure after one year, two max of riding the pine and having HUMUNGOUS pockets for doing it, he will be fine with moving onto the KHL at 34 years old and a very rich man. Other than that, maybe there will always be a sucker like Columbus or Tampa (though I don't see Yzerman being that sucker) that would take him off our hands. If such a deal was to happen, it would be one large / long term contract headache for another.

I did post on a thread on the Vancouver forum regarding the Schneider thing (what Van should do with him) and I proposed:

Schneider / Edler

Bobs / JVR / Lijla / 2012 2nd round pick

Would you do that? Am I undervaluing what Philly should give up in an equitable trade?

That would solve a BIG Vancouver headache, and while not solving our humungous headache, it would at least give a prescribed relief.

[Vanflyer]

@radoran

"That will kill us in the Playoffs ;-)"

IF we make the playoffs. ;-)

Wouldn't it be a ball buster if we miss by two or three points or come down to tie breaker on Wins??

[radoran]

Thanks for bringing me back down to earth!! Good point. But my fear is it kills us before we get there! I'm beginning to worry about our seeding. How many OTLs is that now, 7 or so? those extra points would be pretty sweet. And who knows how many more of those second points we have to lose before the end of the regular season.

LOL.

Looking at it, it's really pathetic that the #3 seed would barely be the 8th.

I think the Flyers make the playoffs barring a complete and total meltdown (not impossible). They have six points and three games in hand on the 8 (Ottawa). If we were Florida (a nine seed, one point behind Washington with seven more OTLs) I'd be more concerned.

On the bright side, if they lose enough second points maybe they avoid the Pens/Devs/Rags in the first round? :-)

[Podein25]

Is There a Franchise Problem with Goaltending?

It's the other way around: there is a goaltending problem with the franchise B)

[JackStraw]

It's the other way around: there is a goaltending problem with the franchise B)

You have a way with words, you know that?

[Podein25]

@JackStraw - I also have a way with sheep. They swoon upon hearing my dulcet tones.

[JackStraw]

@JackStraw - I also have a way with sheep. They swoon upon hearing my dulcet tones.

Tell us something we don't know.

[Podein25]

You don't know my lace count, na na na boo boo

Oh good lord, I sound like Special K. Shoot me

[JackStraw]

Special K doesn't know his own lace count. You're safe.