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TIMONEN RIPS TEAMMATES AFTER ANOTHER LOSS TO NYR


Guest Irishjim

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it's simple. the rangers match up well against the flyers. they have incredible talent at goalie, which is their major advantage. they also have incredible talent blossoming on defense, and they are playing well as a team right now - especially team defense.

to top it off, they have players on offense that score timely goals. it's not magic.

we aren't the only ones losing to the rangers right now.

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Maybe the lack of on ice leadership is causing them not to play the system Lavi wants them to play, consistantly that is. The thing I don't understand is there shouldn't be a lack of leadership. Timmo, Briere, Talbot, G, (Shelly, ok maybe not on the ice but atleast locker room).

Hope things are well in Idaahoo today. Beautiful part f the world.

There is no leader and there is no leadership. Kimmo trys to speak out but the leadership role does not come naturally to him. Hartnell is a clown. Briere is a nice, laid-back little French-Canadien boy. Talbot is one year in and just a nice addition. Jarg is a gun for hire. Shelley never plays. Lots of new guys all real young. G is the future leadership, Comcast seems gun shy. CP20 was supposed to be The Guy. Remind you of last year a bit? Lots of great guys and different types but no player leader. This is the biggest loss of CP20.

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I am a Lavy supporter. But, I am starting to question a system that stresses all attack and depends so heavily on forwards and defense moving up and back together for it to work.

It's an unsustainable system. You can't play a go-go hockey and expect to win every night. Like you mentioned, this system stresses the entire team, so no wonder they didn't come out hard in the 3rd period. How can you have anything left in the tank when you constantly in the attack zone and abandon the defense?

I really begin to question this coach's ability, to be honest. I don't know how much of his previous success had to do with his coaching or just having a stellar goaltending, and when he doesn't have that goaltending at his disposal, he is hapless. He sort of reminds me John Stevens: same tactics, same strategy form game to game with no adjustements based on the opposition. Laviolette may be a decent motivator, but I don't know how good of an x's and o's he is.

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It's an unsustainable system. You can't play a go-go hockey and expect to win every night. Like you mentioned, this system stresses the entire team, so no wonder they didn't come out hard in the 3rd period. How can you have anything left in the tank when you constantly in the attack zone and abandon the defense?

I really begin to question this coach's ability, to be honest. I don't know how much of his previous success had to do with his coaching or just having a stellar goaltending, and when he doesn't have that goaltending at his disposal, he is hapless. He sort of reminds me John Stevens: same tactics, same strategy form game to game with no adjustements based on the opposition. Laviolette may be a decent motivator, but I don't know how good of an x's and o's he is.

Good points MD. You really know hockey, unlike some of the thugs on this forum. Bear appreciates your hockey intelligence.

I do not question Lavy. I question his flexibility right now with what he has to work with.

A stand-on-your-head top notch goalie is the difference to Lavy's system working, or not. I bet he put a lot of pressure on Holmgren and Snider in the off-season to get a top goalie, like Bryz. So, that being said, that is why Lavy is still trying to go with the guy and let Bryz try to work it out. What option does he have? The G is that important to his system. But Bryz has never had to work this unexposed before, at least not in Phoenix...

I think the real problem, net-net, is the D. They just aren't that good. You can squarely fault the Flyers lack of a farm system. CP20 out exposed them even further. Add a basically weak D, that is not that known for skating. Then that is forced to skate up and back with the forwards, that are pretty fast let me add. Then approaching the second half of the season when the fatigue and injuies are starting to show. And then the D can't get back in position to man-up, keep the crease clean, and win the puck battles in the corners, after skating up and back with the forwards, and you see what we have now. I do not think it is conditioning. Look no further than Kimmo as an example. It's the system!

Watch tonight and see what I am saying when the D gets totally out of position.

Lavy has to modify the system short term and Holmgren has got to make a trade. It really is that simple and when that is done there will be a huge improvement.

One more thing, when the forwards just start flying around and the D joins, although the backside is exposed completely, you do see the system work. So unless Bryz becomes a Cam Ward and stops every breakdown, the system has to change.

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Respectfully BOI

I don't know where you get that our defensmen can't skate, the scouting report on coburn, great skater, carle excellent skater, timmonen above average, metzaros above average, gustaffson , a lot like timmonen, the only guy seeing significant minutes that is meh with the skating is bourdon....i've seen nothing with these guys that shows all of the sudden they're subpar in that area.

who does Holmgren make a trade for ? if the system is that broke and no one can skate, bringing in a couple of the available pu-pu platter guys won't help at all. Gill ? he'd look like a traffic pylon, Sutton ? don't know enough about him, probably no better than coburn though.

our current top 4 are not the bums you make them out to be.

the thing i've noticed in the d zone is there isn't a whole lot of support coming from the forwards, they're fast breaking the second they see rubber on an orange blade and if the outlet isn't good then their man is open going the other way and the defensemen have 2 guys to mark not just one.

this is a young team that will make mistakes, i know they're pros. but let's be honest here, did you think they were headed for a cup this year after trading away 60 goals . the captain the leading scorer, and top face off guy ?

the off season moves were puzzling at best, none of the signings made me think , this is the year, we're a lock. I hate losing in teh division too, but with 7 rookies dressing things like this are going to happen.

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I think the real problem, net-net, is the D. They just aren't that good. You can squarely fault the Flyers lack of a farm system. CP20 out exposed them even further. Add a basically weak D, that is not that known for skating. Then that is forced to skate up and back with the forwards, that are pretty fast let me add. Then approaching the second half of the season when the fatigue and injuies are starting to show. And then the D can't get back in position to man-up, keep the crease clean, and win the puck battles in the corners, after skating up and back with the forwards, and you see what we have now. I do not think it is conditioning. Look no further than Kimmo as an example. It's the system!

as mojo pointed out, the dcorps for the flyers right now are all high end skaters. their defensive instincts might be open to critisism, but each one, especially kimmo, carle and coburn, are fast and agile guys. given that the rest of your synopsis is based on the premise that they can't skate......

they are not a heavy hitting bunch. they are not a nasty clear the crease bunch. they are not a heavy shooting bunch. they are a fast bunch.

as has been said by myself and others but largely ignored, the big issue right now is the lack of d-zone participation from the forwards. the 6 defensemen are getting scape goated, because that's what happens here, but they are not the issue. not the major one, anyway.

here. the 2 even strength goals from yesterday:

goal4.jpg

goal #4. anisimov has managed to get goal side on rinaldo, and as the pass in progress comes across, he manages another couple feet of seperation and taps the puck in backdoor, essentially uncontested. yes, gustafsson's flubbed pass created the situation, but the goal itself was preventable had the forwards picked up their checks. note how much space and time couturier has given stephan to make the cross ice pass. gustafsson's position isn't perfect, but given the puck was on gaborik's stick below the goalline a moment prior, it isn't completely inappropriate.

goal5.jpg

goal #5. the rangers have just been cycling behind the net, and giroux has been chasing the puck, switching his check from puck carrier to puck carrier to puck carrier, forcing the dmen to adjust and readjust their coverage based on him and not the play. seconds before the shot above, giroux had dropped his coverage of hagelin at the back door to chase richards on the other side of the ice. once he left hagelin, richards fed a pass across to hagelin, who's one-time missed wide and bounced off the back boards, coming back out to callahan, who knocked it in. in the photo above, giroux is peeling off his b-line to richards on the near side after the pass across. callahan should be carle's man; but giroux had been in that exact spot not a second before. coverages were confused and the flyers d+c had piled up in the crease. the entire time, jagr and hartnell stood there watching. mind you, the puck had been below the dots for 9+ seconds prior to the goal being scored, 9+ seconds of rangers posession low, with obvious and worsening coverage problems...but the wingers felt it inappropriate to get involved in any way or do anything other than yell encouraging words.

the flyer's d far from perfect, but as i've said before, to lay the blame on those 6 guys gives a pass to 12 forwards and a system that are not getting the job done right now. an allstar defensive squad will quickly find itself overwhelmed if it is not supported by the other 3 skaters on the ice, and i do not disagree that this is not an allstar defensive squad.

edit: though after seeing the first goal tonight, the flyers really need to find a way to make the front of their net a less plesant place for opposing forwards to camp out. that definitely needs some work.

Edited by aziz
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the flyer's d far from perfect, but as i've said before, to lay the blame on those 6 guys gives a pass to 12 forwards and a system that are not getting the job done right now. an allstar defensive squad will quickly find itself overwhelmed if it is not supported by the other 3 skaters on the ice, and i do not disagree that this is not an allstar defensive squad.

I agree to a point with that. Without a doubt, the forwards are not helping the d-men much lately. But again - and this is just my personal suspicion, or observation - that our group of d-men is good enough to play better. This state of affairs doesn't do this d-men group justice. I really think the whole team, and the d-men corps particularly, are being victimized by the system this coach employs from game to game.

I really don't think the Rangers' d-men are much better. Girardi is a good, solid d-man. But the rest? DelZoto, McDonough...... Please. But Tortorella doesn't stress his team as much Laviolette does this team. Tortorella's d-men do what d-men are supposed to do: they think defense first and the rest is dictated by a situation. Look at how the FLyere D play. It's almost comical to watch. Coburn doesn't seem to know where he is supposed to be when the team attacks. He first tries to jump in, but he neither trails the play (a traditional way for a d-man to jump), nor stays in his zone. He is hesitant and it's really hard to tell what he wants to do. Carle is all over the place. Meszaros and Timonen would help along the flanks, but in case of the counterattack, they are caught too far in the offensive zone that they had to rush back with a light speed. And that's why they don't have much left in the tank by the start of a 3rd period. And it’s not like Timonen is 18-year old…

I swear, Timonen's speech was not so much of a criticism of players. I really think it was directed at his coach. You can't play hockey this way. It's ridiculous. They Flyers seem to have completely abandoned the very notion of a stay-home defensemen.

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essentially uncontested. yes, gustafsson's flubbed pass created the situation, b

Excellent analysis - feel like I'm at a team meeting ... :)

one thing - what I quoted - I'm pretty sure it was Mez's pass from behind the net to Gus that caused the trouble. The pass was 4 feet off the mark, which caused Gus to spin himself around to try and corral it. He was unsuccessful, Callahan (i think) picked it up, flung it to Animsemov for the easy put away.

Meszaros has done some good things this season but his bad passing is (and has been) really hurting us. He's taken a step sideways this year, not forward - he hasn't elevated his game (as they say) and that's unfortunate considering how things stand with Pronger. We need our veteran D-men to step up and at the very least make smart, calm first passes on the breakouts. Carle is equally guilty, Kimmo and Coburn less so.

MadDog - If you changed "D-men" to "TEAM D" I would say you are 100% correct. And I disagree with your assessment of Coburn - he's a solid defender who's hard to get around. Nine times out of ten he'll win the position races and he's rarely guilty of making a bad decision with the puck in our zone (offensively it's another story). But all in all I think our problems on D are much more about Goaltending and our Forwards' lack of participation (shall we say) in the commitment to defending our net. I wrote about the poor "gap control" coming up ice in another thread. I think that's a huge part of what's going wrong lately too.

Aziz illustrated only 2 of the glaring mistakes our forwards made on Saturday but pick any game and you'll see dozens more - not all of them going against us on the scoreboard. I have to believe if we're talking about it then Lavy is talking about it - him and his staff. They're not suddenly going to play like the Devils under Lemaire but they all - allowing for rookie mistakes - should be able to make clean passes, receive a pass and control themselves enough in our own zone that they're not 1) standing around watching or 2) chasing the puck carrier and vacating their positions. Fundamental defense - we don't need to look past that. Goaltending, Team D and execution of assignments.

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Meszaros has done some good things this season but his bad passing is (and has been) really hurting us. He's taken a step sideways this year, not forward - he hasn't elevated his game (as they say) and that's unfortunate considering how things stand with Pronger.

agreed. i'd say that's true of all three no-longer-kids/no-quite-vets back there, coburn, carle and meszaros, and i don't know why. each one stopped moving forward this season, and if anything slide backwards a bit. that's a thing holmgren is going to have to figure out this summer: did each loudly hit their peak and go a touch sour this season? or is something else going on?

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@quigly46-

Maybe you mean the d plays small, but they certainly are not small in stature.

Carle- 6' 205

Coburn- 6'5 220

Meszarus- 6'2 223

Timmonen- 5'10 195

Bourdon- 6' 206

Gustafsson- 5'10 180

Lilja- 6'3 220

Hardly what you would call small.

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as mojo pointed out, the dcorps for the flyers right now are all high end skaters. their defensive instincts might be open to critisism, but each one, especially kimmo, carle and coburn, are fast and agile guys. given that the rest of your synopsis is based on the premise that they can't skate......

they are not a heavy hitting bunch. they are not a nasty clear the crease bunch. they are not a heavy shooting bunch. they are a fast bunch.

as has been said by myself and others but largely ignored, the big issue right now is the lack of d-zone participation from the forwards. the 6 defensemen are getting scape goated, because that's what happens here, but they are not the issue. not the major one, anyway.

here. the 2 even strength goals from yesterday:

goal4.jpg

goal #4. anisimov has managed to get goal side on rinaldo, and as the pass in progress comes across, he manages another couple feet of seperation and taps the puck in backdoor, essentially uncontested. yes, gustafsson's flubbed pass created the situation, but the goal itself was preventable had the forwards picked up their checks. note how much space and time couturier has given stephan to make the cross ice pass. gustafsson's position isn't perfect, but given the puck was on gaborik's stick below the goalline a moment prior, it isn't completely inappropriate.

goal5.jpg

goal #5. the rangers have just been cycling behind the net, and giroux has been chasing the puck, switching his check from puck carrier to puck carrier to puck carrier, forcing the dmen to adjust and readjust their coverage based on him and not the play. seconds before the shot above, giroux had dropped his coverage of hagelin at the back door to chase richards on the other side of the ice. once he left hagelin, richards fed a pass across to hagelin, who's one-time missed wide and bounced off the back boards, coming back out to callahan, who knocked it in. in the photo above, giroux is peeling off his b-line to richards on the near side after the pass across. callahan should be carle's man; but giroux had been in that exact spot not a second before. coverages were confused and the flyers d+c had piled up in the crease. the entire time, jagr and hartnell stood there watching. mind you, the puck had been below the dots for 9+ seconds prior to the goal being scored, 9+ seconds of rangers posession low, with obvious and worsening coverage problems...but the wingers felt it inappropriate to get involved in any way or do anything other than yell encouraging words.

the flyer's d far from perfect, but as i've said before, to lay the blame on those 6 guys gives a pass to 12 forwards and a system that are not getting the job done right now. an allstar defensive squad will quickly find itself overwhelmed if it is not supported by the other 3 skaters on the ice, and i do not disagree that this is not an allstar defensive squad.

edit: though after seeing the first goal tonight, the flyers really need to find a way to make the front of their net a less plesant place for opposing forwards to camp out. that definitely needs some work.

Nice analysis.

My premise should have been, well ok, they can skate but they cannot D.

Keep the faith.

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It's an unsustainable system. You can't play a go-go hockey and expect to win every night. Like you mentioned, this system stresses the entire team, so no wonder they didn't come out hard in the 3rd period. How can you have anything left in the tank when you constantly in the attack zone and abandon the defense?

I really begin to question this coach's ability, to be honest. I don't know how much of his previous success had to do with his coaching or just having a stellar goaltending, and when he doesn't have that goaltending at his disposal, he is hapless. He sort of reminds me John Stevens: same tactics, same strategy form game to game with no adjustements based on the opposition. Laviolette may be a decent motivator, but I don't know how good of an x's and o's he is.

I am now in full agreement with you. Full.

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Timo should also be ripping the coaching staff for not being able to figure out how to beat ONE specific team in 5 tries. I know the coaching staff is not on the ice, but c'mon man.. try something different, be a little more creative, somehow figure out what the Rags are doing and try to counter that strategy... getting all red in the face and calling timeouts mid-way through the game is certainly not the answer...

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I agree to a point with that. Without a doubt, the forwards are not helping the d-men much lately. But again - and this is just my personal suspicion, or observation - that our group of d-men is good enough to play better. This state of affairs doesn't do this d-men group justice. I really think the whole team, and the d-men corps particularly, are being victimized by the system this coach employs from game to game.

I really don't think the Rangers' d-men are much better. Girardi is a good, solid d-man. But the rest? DelZoto, McDonough...... Please. But Tortorella doesn't stress his team as much Laviolette does this team. Tortorella's d-men do what d-men are supposed to do: they think defense first and the rest is dictated by a situation. Look at how the FLyere D play. It's almost comical to watch. Coburn doesn't seem to know where he is supposed to be when the team attacks. He first tries to jump in, but he neither trails the play (a traditional way for a d-man to jump), nor stays in his zone. He is hesitant and it's really hard to tell what he wants to do. Carle is all over the place. Meszaros and Timonen would help along the flanks, but in case of the counterattack, they are caught too far in the offensive zone that they had to rush back with a light speed. And that's why they don't have much left in the tank by the start of a 3rd period. And it’s not like Timonen is 18-year old…

I swear, Timonen's speech was not so much of a criticism of players. I really think it was directed at his coach. You can't play hockey this way. It's ridiculous. They Flyers seem to have completely abandoned the very notion of a stay-home defensemen.

i thought there was a thinly veiled jab at the coaching staff. he mentioned how the rangers play a system almost as if we don't play any system. maybe he was making a comment about how the guys just stop playing the system, but it could go a bit both ways.

it does seem that there's a lack of awareness going on out there that goes down the line. vets to rookies are looking pretty confused as to where to be and who's covering whom. must be frustrating, but it looks like they're out there thinking too much instead of playing positionally and reacting. one through-line i see, happening quite a bit in recent games, is the middle of the ice parting like the red sea for opposing teams. our d is getting spread to the boards and then all it takes is wide shots caroming... bad turnovers happening, or just one on one getting beat. then it's off to the races.

i'm not specifically blaming the D for that... they've been happening on terrible line changes and simply just some bad individual plays from both F and D. clearly F's aren't getting back. maybe this all just comes back to, what seems to me, a lack of positional awareness that could be from not being really sure of what their assignments really are.

why aren't they? that would be coaching. all the blame that flies around in flyer land though... i dunno... i really just feel as if it's pretty silly to blame one player, one group, for what's going on here. there are a lot of problems right now and i don't think there are many players, coaches, who are immune to some responsibility for it.

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MadDog - If you changed "D-men" to "TEAM D" I would say you are 100% correct. And I disagree with your assessment of Coburn - he's a solid defender who's hard to get around. Nine times out of ten he'll win the position races and he's rarely guilty of making a bad decision with the puck in our zone (offensively it's another story). But all in all I think our problems on D are much more about Goaltending and our Forwards' lack of participation (shall we say) in the commitment to defending our net. I wrote about the poor "gap control" coming up ice in another thread. I think that's a huge part of what's going wrong lately too.

I don't disagree with that, Canoli, plus the rest of your analysis. But perhaps I should've clarified: my description of how Coburn has been playing was not necessarily a criticism of *Coburn* per se. More than anything - if not everything - it's a reflection of how unsustainable the way this team plays is. I really think that both Meszaros and Coburn are being victimized by the strategy Laviolette employs when it comes to joining the attack. Watch intently the next time this team plays: the d-men really have no idea what they are supposed to do when there is a quick rush. They don't seem to have a good sense as to whether they should join the rush or stay home.

You mentioned Meszaros' bad passing. You may think I am out of my mind, but I partly blame that on poor coaching as well. Both he and Timonen are asked to be spending too much time actually *away* from his own crease - something that is so counterintuitive - that half-way through the game they must be feeling exhausted. It's a really simple concept, actually, for this coach to overlook and not take into account. And I am not even mentioning the fact that if you have your d-men flapping all over the ice, your goalie (especially someone like Bryzgalov, who is incapable of making huge saves) is left completely unprotected and vulnerable.

I really don’t have any other explanation for why Coburn, Carle and Meszaros, not to mentioned a seasoned, reliable shark like Timonen, can be caught out of position like they are a bunch of novices. They can’t really be *that* bad.

Think of it this way. Look at how Bryzgalov and this year Mike Smith are playing in Dave Tippett’s system. As much as we kill Bryzgalov here, he’s gotta be better than what his game is showing. That Phoenix team is playing as flawless a defense as I’ve ever seen. They protect their crease like crazy. Smith has been pretty much a joke everywhere else he’s played before. I refuse to believe it’s a simple coincidence.

With all that said, I am not going to disagree for even two seconds that our forwards have to do a better job. But let’s run down the roster. Other than Talbott (obviously) and perhaps Giroux, who do you expect to lock down and shut down the opposing forwards? Jagr, Briere, and Hartnell have always been offensive forwards. Couturier is trying, but he is still a rookie. Matt Read has already exceeded what has been expected out of him, but sooner or later he was expected to hit the wall. See, that’s the price this team should’ve been prepared to pay for not having Richards around anymore, or find a suitable replacement. And we no longer have Lappy or Blair Betts to provide that anchoring, calming presence when needed, to block shots or make a timely clear.

Frankly, I don't see how this can change any time soon. I really think this GM (yes, let's finally place the blame where it belongs the most), oince again showed compelte short-sightedness and lack of plan when making all the summer moves. And this coach just doesn't instill much of confidence in me, to be honest, that he is capable of turning things around.

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why aren't they? that would be coaching. all the blame that flies around in flyer land though... i dunno... i really just feel as if it's pretty silly to blame one player, one group, for what's going on here. there are a lot of problems right now and i don't think there are many players, coaches, who are immune to some responsibility for it.

Assessing this team's performance over a long-term scale, it is ABSOLUTELY coaching. No two ways about that. As I said in my previous post to Canoli, as much as it's convenient to throw rocks at Bryzgalov and blame the D, eventually someone has to start pointing fingers at the First in Command.

Edited by Mad Dog
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@Mad Dog - I don't think you can be so unequivocal about it being coaching.

I mean, if Bryz had played half as well as Leighton was at his worst, we'd have like 10+ more wins and everyone would be talking Stanley Cup run. We lose a few tough ones to two of the best teams in the league and suddenly everybody wants to talk coaching and "systems."

In other words, gimme a break. The rhetoric is getting a bit strong.

Edited by Podein25
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@Mad Dog - I don't think you can be so unequivocal about it being coaching.

I mean, if Bryz had played half as well as Leighton was at his worst, we'd have like 10+ more wins and everyone would be talking Stanley Cup run. We lose a few tough ones to two of the best teams in the league and suddenly everybody wants to talk coaching and "systems."

In other words, gimme a break. The rhetoric is getting a bit strong.

Accurately accurate. The reality is, the Flyers didn't play all that bad this weekend. Against the Rangers they had the better of play for the first two periods but dumb penalties and bad PK cost them. Then they played a pretty good game against a team that has only lost two home games all year, but again, special teams cost them. There's no need to trade half the team, things will get better soon enough.

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I thought we played well too. Giving up all the PP goals is worrisome to be sure, and our coverage of that cross-ice stuff down low absolutely has to improve, but I don't think it's panic time by any stretch. I particuarly don't understand those who say this is a result of lack of effort or whatever. This is a hard working team with lots of youthful enthusiasm driving it. It's fun to watch them play!

I don't understand Flyer fans sometimes. And I've been one for ~40 years.

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@

But you don't think *any* of our troubles are due to coaching?

I am not absolving the players - especially this comedian Bryzgalov - from blame. Nobody is getting a free lunch. But come'n now.... Mike Smith, whose career's average save % was around 0.89 suddenly improved to 0.93 and his GAA went down from almost 3.0 to 2.3. And it's Mike Stinking Smith! You don't think the coaching/system has much to do with that?

Yes, Bryzgalov is being atroceous... probably the worst the Flyers' goaltending has been during the regualr season over the last decade... and that's not saying much considering the stiffs we had in the past. And to be fair, I didn't expect him to be a savior when we got him, but there is no way he should be *that* terrible.

This defensive corps on paper is easily one of the best in the entire league, let alone Eastern Conference. Yet they play like a collection of rookies, flapping, falling out of position, and getting beaten on just about every possession. Sure, the team D is bad. But then *why* is that bad? Did a veteran like Timonen suddenly forget how to cover the crease?

Again, everybody is responsible, including the GM who failed to get defensively responsible forwards. But the coach most definitely should be getting plenty of heat.

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I'll go with Bryz "has been" atrocious this season, but I think the ship has righted somewhat before his "illness."

He's 5-3-3, 2.29, .920 since January 1. That's 11 starts over six weeks - not a bad stretch to use as a measure.

There have been some clunkers, but the three OTLS featured two games where they scored one goal and one whole shootout goal between them (which would make it difficult to win even if Bryz had made some shootout stops).

Of course he needs to keep it up, but if he puts up sub-2.5GAA and .910+ SV% from here on out, that *should* be enough to get this team comfortably into the playoffs... where their other deficiencies will be IMO quickly exposed.

He's not being covered 24/7 and he's IMO gotten more serious about his play as a result of it.

This team needs to tighten up top to bottom on just about every aspect of the game over the next six weeks to have any chance.

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