2021-22 Stanley Cup Finals: Tampa Bay Lightning (Wales Champion) at Colorado Avalanche (Campbell Champion) - (COL WINS 4-2)

[Captain Lando]

12 hours ago, Brewin Flames said:

I was just wondering if any of these guys are Irish.....

 

My head says Tampa, been there done that, that VAS guy, and a solid team/coach who is ready to go.

 

But my heart says Avs, somehow, someway this happens, a shamrock perhaps.

MacKinnon is most certainly a Gaelic surname. So the Luck of the Irish has to be on the Avalanche side. 

Edited June 13, 2022 by Brewin Flames

[Math]

Goalies: 

Defense: 

Offense: 

Special teams (PP/PK): 

Coaching: 

Mental: 

Experience: 

Robustness: 

Depth: 

 

Again, the Lightning is a bit better in most of the aspects. I'll stick with TB in 5.

 

[ClusterChuck]

20 hours ago, Math said:

If the top-6 of each team offsets each other because they are damn good, the difference will depend on the bottom-6, significantly better on the Lightning side. Same of the defense, Tampa had more quality depth. Not to mention goaltending. No disrespect towards Colorado, but I'll take Tampa in 5.

 

I applaude the gutsy call. Didn't work out for me with the Wild-Blues but there was a decent chance for a bit. 
I'm going TB in 6.

This matchup is the league's and ESPN's dream scenario (And even Bettman's being south and west teams)
Let's hope it lives up to the hype. 

 

[Captain Lando]

11 minutes ago, ClusterChuck said:

 

I applaude the gutsy call. Didn't work out for me with the Wild-Blues but there was a decent chance for a bit. 
I'm going TB in 6.

This matchup is the league's and ESPN's dream scenario (And even Bettman's being south and west teams)
Let's hope it lives up to the hype. 

 

I think we are going to get some high quality s### from this and I am not talking about the weed that is floating around Colorado , I am talking about the ice hockey that is going to be played by these two teams who are both playing at top level at this time. It is going to be pretty damn exciting to watch. 

[FD19372]

We all know how immensely talented both teams are. This should be one of the greater series of all-time. Something I haven't seen discussed, is I wonder how much the altitude of Denver, and the humidity in Tampa Bay will play a part in this series. At the very least, I think it will be a slight factor in this series.

[Math]

2 hours ago, Captain Lando said:

I think we are going to get some high quality s### from this and I am not talking about the weed that is floating around Colorado

 

That was the first thing I noticed -- smelled -- when I was walking in downdown Denver. This and the nice microbreweries in the old industrial district of course.

[yave1964]

I picked Tampa to beat Colorado in the finals in 7 before the season began, no point in changing that now.

[Captain Lando]

2 hours ago, FD19372 said:

We all know how immensely talented both teams are. This should be one of the greater series of all-time. Something I haven't seen discussed, is I wonder how much the altitude of Denver, and the humidity in Tampa Bay will play a part in this series. At the very least, I think it will be a slight factor in this series.

The humidity is not a factor here, but at the moment I think we are attempting to accommodate the Tampa Bay Lightning with the heat as it is in the mid to upper 90's here and the other day it hit 100 degrees. So it is still hot. I have lived here my entire life so the whole altitude thing isn't an issue for me and I just say suck it up. 

[TropicalFruitGirl26]

19 hours ago, Mad Dog said:

 

You know, I've actually suspected that for quite some time. Your writing, and analysis in general, is on a professional level. It's almost unfair to the rest of us here.  But seriously, I always enjoy reading your comments.

 

Thank you, @Mad Dog!
And believe me, it is NEVER my intention to show up, or show off ANYTHING on here...I just enjoy the sport, enjoy you guys here and sometimes my keyboard has a mind of its own! 

There are lots of people I like reading on here as well....and I'll put @yave1964 at the top of the list with his excellent team write ups. A guy who is spot on about most things, yet isn't afraid to be wrong about them either!

And I do like diving into the Flyers forum and see what you guys are talking about, even if I don't comment on everything in there.
Something to be said for simply reading and absorbing without having to comment on every single thing.
I've learned much about your team from reading what you and some of the other Flyers fans post...both positive and negative, so you guys....keep'er going!

I'm happy enough being a good read to people and being entertaining, more than being "right" about stuff (though that is cool too!   ), hence why I usually inject sideways comments, sarcasm, or off the wall stuff in my posts whenever possible. 

 

[TropicalFruitGirl26]

Some stories from NHL.com that were posted yesterday and today. They were mixed in with some other stuff, and I know anyone here can go there and read them, so I will just post the main points surrounding injured players on both sides for easier access.

For the Colorado Avalanche:
 

DENVER -- Nazem Kadri and Andrew Cogliano could play for the Colorado Avalanche in the Stanley Cup Final against the Tampa Bay Lightning starting Wednesday (8 p.m. ET; ESPN+, ABC, CBC, SN, TVAS).

The forwards are back on the ice after each had surgery for a hand injury sustained during the Western Conference Final against the Edmonton Oilers.

 

When asked whether Kadri or Coglaino had been ruled out for the start of the best-of-7 series, Avalanche coach Jared Bednar said, "Not yet."

"They both skated [Sunday] morning. Without sticks."

 

Kadri left at 1:06 of the first period of Game 3 after he was boarded by Oilers forward Evander Kane. Kane received a major penalty and was later suspended one game. Kadri has 14 points (six goals, eight assists) in 13 games this postseason.

 

Cogliano left in the third period of Game 4 after blocking a shot while on the penalty kill. He has two goals and one assist in 11 games.

"Similar surgeries, different fingers, thumbs," Bednar said Thursday. "We're hoping, depending on the timeline, they'll be able to make their way back into the finals.

"We'll see how it goes when they get playing and whatnot. We're hopeful that that could be an option for us."

 

The Lightning defeated the New York Rangers 2-1 in Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Final on Saturday to secure their third straight trip to the Cup Final.

"They're back where they are for a reason," Bednar said. "This is a very difficult team to win against, and we have to be ready for the challenge."

 

Colorado, which completed the sweep of Edmonton on June 6, will have had eight days off before the start of Game 1 on Wednesday 

"I feel good about getting a couple of days away from the rink to get sort of decompressed and then start gearing things up a little bit," Bednar said. "It doesn't feel like it's too much time. I like the focus of our group. I like the work of our group, and that's the rest that we have."

 

Avalanche forward Andre Burakovsky did not practice Sunday because of maintenance.

Goalie Darcy Kuemper was a full participant and is available to play in the Cup Final. He has not played since sustaining an upper-body injury in Game 1 against the Oilers but backed up Pavel Francouz in Game 4.

 

 

And for the Tampa Bay Lightning:

TAMPA -- Brayden Point was a full participant when the Tampa Bay Lightning practiced Monday, but the forward's status remains unknown for Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Final against the Colorado Avalanche at Ball Arena in Denver on Wednesday (8 p.m. ET; ESPN+, ABC, CBC, SN, TVAS).

 

Point, who has missed 10 games since sustaining a lower-body injury in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference First Round against the Toronto Maple Leafs on May 14, practiced on the third line with forwards Nicholas Paul and Ross Colton. It was Point's first time with with the full team after skating on his own or with the Lightning's extra players for nearly two weeks, but assistant Jeff Halpern said he didn't know if that meant he is closer to being ready to play.

 

"I don't even know if it's at that point yet medically," Halpern said. "A lot of times we get in touch with the guys on the ice and that's when we see them, but I don't know where he is in that and I don't know if today was any indication. It was a pretty easy skate."

 

Tampa Bay coach Jon Cooper did not speak with the media Monday. After the Lightning advanced to the Cup Final with a 2-1 victory against the New York Rangers in Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Final on Saturday, Cooper said he was optimistic that Point will be able to return at some point against the Avalanche.

 

"I don't know about the probability of Game 1," Cooper said, "but it's extremely probable that he will play in the series."

 

Although the Lightning are 8-2 without Point, his return would provide a boost in their bid to defeat the Avalanche and win the Stanley Cup for the third consecutive season. 

Point led the NHL with 14 goals in the Stanley Cup Playoffs in 2020 and 2021, and his 30 playoff goals in 53 games are most in the League over the past three seasons. Point had four points (two goals, two assists) in seven games this postseason before he was injured, including the overtime goal in a 4-3 victory in Game 6 against the Maple Leafs. 

 

"Obviously, no one wanted that to happen to 'Pointer,' but just seeing him on the ice, seeing that there is hope that he could potentially be in, that brings some confidence," Lightning forward Brandon Hagel said. "Obviously, everybody knows what he's done the past two years, so whether he's 80 percent or 100 percent, he's still a class act, him coming out there, and hopefully at some point he's ready."

 

The Lightning have been playing with the hope that if they went far enough in the playoffs, Point would be able to return. They've now extended their season far enough that it appears possible.

 

"When you go down, especially when you're a key player, and they tell you it depends on how long we go if you have a chance to play again this season, that obviously [stinks]," Tampa Bay forward Pierre-Edouard Bellemare said. "So, to see him now, and he's been a part of the process, he's been there at the end of every game and sometimes between periods to give you positive words, and to have him be able to have a chance to be back in at this time of the year, this is the time. This is why we play the game, to be able to play in June. This is what you want."

 

Forward Corey Perry did not practice Monday, and Halpern did not provide an update. The forward has eight points (five goals, three assists) in 17 games this postseason.

[NHL HHOF]

Stanley Cup Final predictions between Avalanche, Lightning
NHL.com writers, editors select Cup winner, MVP
https://www.nhl.com/news/stanley-cup-final-predictions-between-colorado-avalanche-tampa-bay-lightning/c-334582852?tid=334128040

[NHL HHOF]

 

[Math]

On 6/12/2022 at 3:47 PM, Captain Lando said:

On 6/12/2022 at 3:31 PM, Math said:

 

Don't forget y'all: I'm awful in predictions, even it's my daily job 

I hope you keep that trend up. 

 

Not to sent myself flowers -- I'm not that narcissic (at least not all the time) -- but I'm currently 11/14 by picking the right winner and 4/14 by choosing the right winner and number of games. I severely blame Calgary for the missed shots. So yeah, hope for a normalization through the average law

[Jimtown guy]

[Jimtown guy]

I picked the Avs to win it all before the season started. Stickin to it 

[Captain Lando]

9 minutes ago, Jimtown guy said:

Being an Avs fan, I love this stat. I do however, have to analyze it further as for one these are stats coming from the regular season and the playoffs are an entire different ballgame and now we are talking about the Stanley Cup Finals. The guy has also proven again and again that he can shut it down in games that the Lightning are about to clinch. Finally and this is what scares me the most about this Tampa Bay team and Vasilevskiy. The Avs are a team that has a huge offense. Some say they have an offense that is similar to the Florida Panthers. We all know what the Lightning did to the Panthers earlier in the playoffs. 

 

Still, there is more to this game than just the goalie and I think the Avs will still take this series in 7 games. Fun times ahead. 

[Brewin Flames]

Meh, to me it just always comes down to netminding.

 

Like i said before, my heart says Avs, but my head says Bolts.....that Vas guy, or Dacry K/P Franc.

[SaucyJack]

So about half an hour after TB eliminated NYR, the Stanley Cup odds for TB were set at +145 opening line.  (Risk $10 to earn $14.50). A day later the allegedly “smart money” was placed on COL enough to shift this to TB +155.  Right now enough people liked those odds to tilt it back a little to +150 for the Bolts.

 

I though I was smart making my small bet on TB right away at +145.  If people can’t see by now how TB out-clutched TOR, out-skated FLA, and out-hustled a gassed NYR…I mean really…I thought the early money would go enough TB’s way to reduce its odds payoff.  But it turns out I’d been smarter to wait a day.  If I lose my bet, I’m a dumb loser of my “lucky” 13 bucks.   

 

I’ve got TB in 7 games in a see-saw with never a 2-game lead.   I’ve also got $1 that will win me $95 when this EXACT sequence occurs:

 

- split in COL, home team in game 1

- split in TB, home team in game 3

- home teams win games 5 & 6

- TB repeats their G2 road win with an heroic G7 decider at Ball Arena.

 

It’s a sure thing; can’t-miss!  

[TropicalFruitGirl26]

33 minutes ago, SaucyJack said:

So about half an hour after TB eliminated NYR, the Stanley Cup odds for TB were set at +145 opening line.  (Risk $10 to earn $14.50). A day later the allegedly “smart money” was placed on COL enough to shift this to TB +155.  Right now enough people liked those odds to tilt it back a little to +150 for the Bolts.

 

I though I was smart making my small bet on TB right away at +145.  If people can’t see by now how TB out-clutched TOR, out-skated FLA, and out-hustled a gassed NYR…I mean really…I thought the early money would go enough TB’s way to reduce its odds payoff.  But it turns out I’d been smarter to wait a day.  If I lose my bet, I’m a dumb loser of my “lucky” 13 bucks.   

 

I’ve got TB in 7 games in a see-saw with never a 2-game lead.   I’ve also got $1 that will win me $95 when this EXACT sequence occurs:

 

- split in COL, home team in game 1

- split in TB, home team in game 3

- home teams win games 5 & 6

- TB repeats their G2 road win with an heroic G7 decider at Ball Arena.

 

It’s a sure thing; can’t-miss!  

 

I'm not a gamblin' gal, so most of that went over my head like a line drive off the bat of Kevin Kiermaier, splitting the gap and all the way to the wall for a stand up triple.

BUT, I do like how your story ends so you are getting a like based on that alone! 

Edited June 15, 2022 by TropicalFruitGirl26

[Math]

55 minutes ago, SaucyJack said:

- split in COL, home team in game 1

- split in TB, home team in game 3

- home teams win games 5 & 6

- TB repeats their G2 road win with an heroic G7 decider at Ball Arena.

 

Does the split order matter? For example 1-1 after the two first games in Denver, no matter who won the first game?

 

I like this bet very much.

 

And as soon as this series is over, I'm gonna bore you with a statistical analysis about wether home ice advantage is really significant.

 

 

[FD19372]

First team to 40 goals, in this series, wins!

[TropicalFruitGirl26]

1 hour ago, FD19372 said:

First team to 40 goals, in this series, wins!

 

The main flaw with this is.... Colorado could win game one 40-1....then lose Games 2-5, by 1-0 counts, outscore the Lightning 40-5 and STILL lose the series in 5  

[Captain Lando]

4 hours ago, FireDillabaugh said:

Maybe you should tell that to Markstrom and his stats vs. Edmonton...  Oh wait...  Yeah.  Playoffs were nothing different.  Yes, Markstrom isn't Vasi.  But, stats are stats.  And they proved to be truth in that series.

 

And some would say that many who watched that series saw Florida completely collapse, Brunette lose that squad, and beat themselves much more than Tampa shutting them down and playing amazing hockey against them.  If you watched Florida during the regular season and then in the playoffs, it was pretty clear to see they just weren't the same team in the playoffs.  Seemed like as soon as they got Ekblad back into the lineup, the team got worse somehow.  Yes.  Vasi played well against Florida.  But, was that because of him or because of Florida's collapse?  I guess time will tell when we see how he does against the Avs.

The bottom line is the regular season is a totally different mindset for the players than that of these short 7 game series. The regular season is a long marathon while these short series are more like a sprint to the finish. So in these playoff series you better have your "A" game on or you are going to be sent home packing and that was the case for Markstrom. He was not at his best. If he was at his best he would have out played Mike Smith and they probably would have won that series. 

 

As for the Panthers they could have collapsed as they only scored 3 goals the entire series or the Tampa Bay defense and Vasilevskiy shut them down. We shall see if they have that same formula against the high powered offense of the Avs and I imagine the Avalanche coaches looked long and hard at that series and have their own plan as to how to make things work as well. 

[SaucyJack]

13 hours ago, Math said:

Does the split order matter? For example 1-1 after the two first games in Denver, no matter who won the first game?

Yes, it matters.  I don’t know if this type of wager is new to FanDuel, but they had a loooong list of every combination of W/L between the two squads across 4, 5, 6, or 7 games.  If it isn’t new, they probably only offer it for 7-game Finals in hockey, basketball, and baseball.  Fun bet esp since less the price of a silly lottery ticket.

 

14 hours ago, TropicalFruitGirl26 said:

I'm not a gamblin' gal, so most of that went over my head like a line drive off the bat of Kevin Kiermaier

Touché then as I don’t know the gentleman!  (Without googling I’ll ass|u|me he’s a local Devil Ray laddie.)

 

Me neivver, not really.  Over 10 years I have maintained, on average, a balance of $500 in a sports betting account.  I’ve gotten as low as 300 and as high as 700.   It’s just a little game, I try to be disciplined and not make overly priced crazy bets.  It is a game with some teeth as it is real not monopoly money.  (We all gamble insanely more with our 401K’s lately.)

[Captain Lando]

3 hours ago, FireDillabaugh said:

I agree.  And anyone who watches hockey should understand and realize that.

 

However, my point is that if you look at Markstrom's stats before the playoffs started, he rarely played well against the Oilers.  Maybe he was on his "A" game against them.  Maybe he wasn't.  But, the results were awful.  Didn't have anything to do with being playoffs or regular season.  There was very little about that matchup in these playoffs to believe Markstrom could suddenly turn this trend around and beat the Oilers in a best of 7.  Very little to believe he could have his "A" game.  The "different mindset" of the playoffs didn't mean a thing in this case.  So, completely discarding stat trends simply because they're regular season stats would just be foolish.  Add to that the poor play of Tkachuk, Gaudreau and Lindholm after Game 1, the Flames didn't have much of a chance.

I agree with a lot of what you are saying, but history has shown that in the playoffs a successful team that advances is the team that usually rides the hot goaltender. It happened in St. Louis with Binnington, it happened with Pittsburgh with Matt Murray. It happens often. 

 

Maybe the Oilers had Markstrom number, but surely the Lightning did not have the Panthers number in the regular season as the split the two game series with them, but they allowed 13 goals in 2 games losing 9 to 3 and winning 8-4. So it definitely was Vasilevskiy standing on his head in the playoffs as they swept the Panthers allowing just 3 goals in 4 games against the high powered offense of the Panthers. Now I am not saying it was just him as the rest of the Lightning shut them down as well, but Vasi was the back end of it.