Connor Bedard

[Lindbergh31]

On 1/6/2023 at 11:55 AM, radoran said:

https://www.tankathon.com/nhl

 

Let's you run your own lottery simulation - just like Gary does!

 

Took me 15 tries to get the Flyers.

 

Took me 8 tries for the Flyers to get number 1

[radoran]

5 minutes ago, Lindbergh31 said:

Took me 8 tries for the Flyers to get number 1

 

I did another 10 this morning and the best was #2. Got #1 on #17.

 

60% of the time they actually moved back to 10 or 11.

 

It's not impossible just highly unlikely.

 

Do they have a chance?

 

[Lindbergh31]

5 minutes ago, radoran said:

 

I did another 10 this morning and the best was #2. Got #1 on #17.

 

60% of the time they actually moved back to 10 or 11.

 

It's not impossible just highly unlikely.

 

Do they have a chance?

 

Not if they keep winning games, they need to go on their typical 10 games losing streak to get back in the sweepstakes for Bedard. Now if Chuck Fletcher somehow doesn't **** up the trade deadline and manages to get rid of some players for picks then the losing may come a lot easier after the deadline. But other teams like Arizona, Columbus and Chicago will be trying to do the same thing. So the Flyers' chances of ending up with the first overall are slim to none.

[radoran]

16 minutes ago, RonJeremy said:

 A top 5 pick would be good,

 

Right, but if they don't get #1 or #2 they stay where they are or drop back.

[Math]

When I'm seeing bottom teams like Chicago, Anaheim, San José and even Montréal relentlessly hoping to win the lottery and land Bedard, I can't help sighing. Yes he's a generational talent, yes he may be a McDavid-like player, yes he will for sure give a boost and strengthen the team where he will play. But some fans seemed to be convinced he will get them several Stanley Cups if they get it. I'm a bit exaggerating but that's the impression around all the Bedard hot discussions here and there.

 

I mean, you can't just hope to select him and see everything going back on track by magic and becoming a continuous true contender year after year. There are so many more parameters going into play. This guy will need to have good players around him with a well-constructed team that has a clear strategy. Winning a Stanley Cup is something you have to prepare and it can take a long time with no guarantee of success even if you are doing everything right. Two examples: The Oilers and the Sabres. How many 1st overall? how many game-changer players? And with what success so far? The Canucks were also close with Linden and then the Sedins. Very close...

 

On the other side, you have the Blackhawks. Kane/Toews as the key players, but without Keith, Hossa, Seabrook and many oother guys I forget, no cups. Same with the Pens. If I take the Stars, they selected Modano in 1988, Hatcher in 1990 and Lehtinen in 1992, and win the cup in 1999. And that's also because they made a brilliant transaction by dealing Iginla for Nieuwendyk, and then signed Belfour, Hull and Carbonneau via free agency. The path is so bumpy and long even if you get the best player available. Not only it takes good drafting, but also good trades and good FA signings. You have to be good everywhere, in every aspects.

I'm making some big divagations there but my point is, if team X gets Bedard, good for them but if he's going elsewhere, nevermind. And it's not because Flyers fans are in majority but Bedard in Philly would be great, both for him and this iconic franchise. But captain Chuck has to be shown the door because he would be capable to deal him with another first for Ryan Suter and a conditional 7th.

[GrittyForever]

Well sure, he's great. But so is McDavid, and how many cups have the Oilers won with him? Heck, they have Draisaitl too and yet all they do is try to scrape their way into the playoffs. 

Does tanking work? Two words. Jack and Eichel. How'd that work out for the Sabres?

 

You want continued success, you need a franchise goalie and you build out solidly from the back end. You keep all your draft picks (including your second rounders) and draft and draft and build that team with talent distributed all over the roster. You have an identity and you stick with it and build a system around it. 

 

You do not keep looking for instant quick fixes and you do not overpay for high end free agents. 

 

The only team I can think of that has gotten away with the constant FA route is Boston but they are an exception because they have had a solid core that they mostly drafted long ago and they all play for cut rate contracts to try to win. Bergeron and Krejci are both playing this year for ridiculously low salaries. Lindholm signed for below market value to be in that culture. Maybe if you build a similar culture through the draft you end up with that privilege, but it's rare, and that door is going to close soon even for them.

 

Tampa did it right. Colorado did it right. When you are right at the edge of winning it all you can add those FAs to take you over the top, but when you are a middling pile of odds and ends on the bubble you don't solve things by throwing money at the problem. That just leaves you in a Hayes.

[GratefulFlyers]

On 1/21/2023 at 3:17 PM, GrittyForever said:

You do not keep looking for instant quick fixes and you do not overpay for high end free agents career 40pt centers or dumb-as-fk defensemen.

[GrittyForever]

6 hours ago, GratefulFlyers said:

On 1/21/2023 at 12:17 PM, GrittyForever said:

You do not keep looking for instant quick fixes and you do not overpay for high end free agents career 40pt centers or dumb-as-fk defensemen.

I felt that was obvious. 

[tucson83]

On 1/21/2023 at 3:17 PM, GrittyForever said:

Well sure, he's great. But so is McDavid, and how many cups have the Oilers won with him? Heck, they have Draisaitl too and yet all they do is try to scrape their way into the playoffs. 

Does tanking work? Two words. Jack and Eichel. How'd that work out for the Sabres?

 

You want continued success, you need a franchise goalie and you build out solidly from the back end. You keep all your draft picks (including your second rounders) and draft and draft and build that team with talent distributed all over the roster. You have an identity and you stick with it and build a system around it. 

 

You do not keep looking for instant quick fixes and you do not overpay for high end free agents. 

 

The only team I can think of that has gotten away with the constant FA route is Boston but they are an exception because they have had a solid core that they mostly drafted long ago and they all play for cut rate contracts to try to win. Bergeron and Krejci are both playing this year for ridiculously low salaries. Lindholm signed for below market value to be in that culture. Maybe if you build a similar culture through the draft you end up with that privilege, but it's rare, and that door is going to close soon even for them.

 

Tampa did it right. Colorado did it right. When you are right at the edge of winning it all you can add those FAs to take you over the top, but when you are a middling pile of odds and ends on the bubble you don't solve things by throwing money at the problem. That just leaves you in a Hayes.

thank god fletch didnt overpay for johnny g, that would have been a disaster, it's tough to win cups, it's tough to get the right players,  i mean i dont know if you are an eagles fan but it was tough for the eagles to win sbs because it was difficult to get those players to get that team over the hump and when it finally went our way in 2017, that's when we won the sb but we keep focusing on winning and making the playoffs so we can attract those players.

 

the only way the flyers will win a cup that the same luck has to happen with eagles, the right players have to become available and it wont work by tanking/losing because you wont attract those players. we have a great coaching staff, it seems like culture is going in the right direction, great goal tending in carter hart, some good forwards we drafted and now everything has to fall in place and hopefully the players that will get this team over hump will become available.

 

that's why we have to patient because of the salary cap, so many great players want big contracts but because of so many teams against the cup, those great players have to stay with those teams as result of them having the cap space to give them the big deals they want. there's no other way, that's just the way the nhl has made these rules.

[SCFlyguy]

You keep ignoring my question.  What Stanley Cup winner had one of its two best players acquired as a UFA?

[pilldoc]

8 minutes ago, SCFlyguy said:

You keep ignoring my question.  What Stanley Cup winner had one of its two best players acquired as a UFA?

 

I had to look really hard .....  the last stanley cup winner I found that had one of their best players acquired via UFA was the 2006-07 Anaheim Ducks Stanley Cup season with Teemu Selanne drafted by Winnipeg  then Selanne having not 1 but 2 different stints with Anaheim.

 

Most of the recent Stanley Cup winners had at least one of their best players drafted by said team .....

[FD19372]

It isn't going to happen. For them to finish dead last, (which doesn't guarantee they'll get Bedard, anyway) they have to leapfrog 9 TEAMS. This *Flyers organization/alumni club and friends, and its management, doesn't have the mental capacity or the patience..to bottom out for a top pick. The higher ups seem to live in their own protective bubble, and reality. The other thing holding the franchise back, is that good to great players, have some clue as to what's going on in the organization..and have zero interest in being a Flyer. Anyway, it isn't feasible at this point for Bedard to be a Flyer, plus Manhattan/Queens Gary Bettman ain't gonna let that happen. He would rather Bedard play in front of a crowd of 500 in Arizona, until that franchise folds, or gets sold. I ran the simulation 5 times, and the Flyers came up with the second pick once, and three of the other times, NINTH. God forbid they just try tanking one year, and they tell their fanbase what the Rangers did at one point a while back "We're going to stink for a little while, bear with us."

[mojo1917]

@SCFlyguy

 

I think one has to go back to pre lock-out times to find a team that signed a player that brought a cup win. Business was different then, Mark Messier with the Rangers comes to mind quickly.

Since the lockout there there have been trades where guys have come in and put a team over the top, I think Rad mentioned Ryan O'Reilly, he was then signed to an extension, but that was a trade. 

Maybe Chris Pronger on the Anahiem Ducks? Then the argument could be made, was he the best player? young Getzlaf, Scott Niedermeyer, Teamu Selanae that was a good team. He was a perennial all-star and considered a top defenseman in the league, but he was considered to be on the back nine of his career.  

 

Edited January 24, 2023 by mojo1917

[Math]

I think we can all agree than you don't build a contending teams around FAs. Those are brought in to add some veteran presence and experience. Doesn't really matter if they are first-best, second-best or whatever. It's not a prerequisite but some of them can be a game-changer in some specific situations. The Stars had Belfour and Hull obtained via free agency and they were the missing pieces to get the championship. Same for Hossa with Chicago: not the driving leaders that were Kane, Toews and Keith but without Hossa, the Blackhawks would've never made it to the end in their three cups. You can't be a legit contender only by getting players thought trades or free agency but you can't rely solely on drafting either.

[Brewin Flames]

I could see the flyers winning the lottery, getting bedard, then having torts ruin him because he's not a complete 200 ft player.

[Math]

As long as he doesn't hold an iPad while scoring with a Michigan, he could be fine.

[JR Ewing]

On 1/21/2023 at 12:17 PM, GrittyForever said:

Well sure, he's great. But so is McDavid, and how many cups have the Oilers won with him? Heck, they have Draisaitl too and yet all they do is try to scrape their way into the playoffs. 

Does tanking work? Two words. Jack and Eichel. How'd that work out for the Sabres?

 

You want continued success, you need a franchise goalie and you build out solidly from the back end. You keep all your draft picks (including your second rounders) and draft and draft and build that team with talent distributed all over the roster. You have an identity and you stick with it and build a system around it. 

 

You do not keep looking for instant quick fixes and you do not overpay for high end free agents. 

 

The only team I can think of that has gotten away with the constant FA route is Boston but they are an exception because they have had a solid core that they mostly drafted long ago and they all play for cut rate contracts to try to win. Bergeron and Krejci are both playing this year for ridiculously low salaries. Lindholm signed for below market value to be in that culture. Maybe if you build a similar culture through the draft you end up with that privilege, but it's rare, and that door is going to close soon even for them.

 

Tampa did it right. Colorado did it right. When you are right at the edge of winning it all you can add those FAs to take you over the top, but when you are a middling pile of odds and ends on the bubble you don't solve things by throwing money at the problem. That just leaves you in a Hayes.

 

Even worse: the Oilers had three consecutive #1 overall picks, and it still took them years to get anywhere, because they completely stripped themselves of players in order to get those picks. It's incredibly easy to delete talent from your lineup and lose hockey games, but it's another thing entirely to reverse the engine and just start winning again. When Edmonton decided they wanted to win again, they embarked on a series of trades where they squandered draft position (trading the pick that became Matt Barzal for Griffin Reinhart), signing questionable free agent deals (Milan Lucic contract), or just terrible player swaps: Taylor Hall for Adam Larsson.

 

I don't think that tanking is ever a good idea, but the Oilers are a testament to the dangers of tanking when you have poor management as well. Let's face it, though: good management doesn't allow themselves to be in the position where tanking is even a possibility.

 

[Brewin Flames]

https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/2023-nhl-draft-lottery-standings-which-teams-have-the-best-chance-to-select-connor-bedard

[mojo1917]

2 hours ago, JR Ewing said:

It's incredibly easy to delete talent from your lineup and lose hockey games, but it's another thing entirely to reverse the engine and just start winning again

this, so much this.

[flyer4ever]

OR flip it around another way. Who in the salary cap bett turd era has won a cup without multiple top 5 picks? It isn't just getting the first pick in a BITFU. it usually includes getting rid of multiple albatross contracts and getting free from aging once great players who were signed to much earned contracts, or in the Flyers case, giving away contracts to broken bodies and just REALLY BAD asset management.

Boston this season may prove us wrong, but it is really hard to build a cup winner having not bottomed out.

[aziz]

On 1/24/2023 at 4:22 PM, flyer4ever said:

Who in the salary cap bett turd era has won a cup without multiple top 5 picks?

 

Well.  (only looking at impact players.  if there was a #3 pick that scored 8 points over 82 games, sorry, missed him)

 

'19 St Louis - I super dare you to tell me that Brayden Schenn and a 100 year old Jay Bouwmeester disqualify them.  Do it.  Tell me you wanted either of those players on your team in 2019.  I was ok with Schenn when he was a Flyer, but there are some of you that still won't speak to me because of that.

'18 Washington - Ok, two top 5 picks, technically "multiple".  I won't fight you on this one, but the Caps haven't exactly been drenched in high draft picks over the last 19 years.  Ovechkin was '04, Backstrom was '06, then they had Alzner in '07, and the 11th overall is the best they've done since then.

'14 Los Angeles

'11 Boston

'08 Detroit

 

Multiple top 5 picks are not a requirement.  They help, but only because they are more likely than lower picks to turn into amazing players.  But they don't always become amazing.  And not all amazing players were drafted that high.  The classic example of Zetterberg and Datsyuk being 210th and 171st respectively.

 

A team needs talent.  To be among the elite in the league, it needs elite talent.  High draft picks are the best chance to just grab that talent for free.  Best *chance*.  The "chance" drops as you move down the picking order, but it never hits zero.

 

I could go on.  My point, though, is if you are drafting in the first round every season, you are in as good a shape as you need to be.  There are a ton of outstanding players in the league's history that were taken 27th overall.  And more than a few top 5s that ended up crap.  It comes down to how you assemble/leverage the assets you collect.  And how lucky you are.  Higher picks just reduces the "luck" requirement, a bit.  In the same way that being dealt 11 reduces the luck you need to win a hand of blackjack, a bit.  I've still lost a lot of money on those hands.

 

edit:  I re-read your post after posting mine, and forgot to bottom line it:  a team doesn't need to completely bottom out.  It needs to stop hurting itself.  It needs to put itself in a position to build with and from the assets it collects.  That means little to no retained cap space, like buyouts or paying players who are skating for other teams.  I get that if you can't see the Flyers doing anything of note for 3 years, there's no harm in paying for dead cap space for 2 of those, but...you are limiting your options, your flexibility.

 

In the end, the way forward is to stop doing stupid things, don't make the stupid things already done even worse with buyouts or retained salary, and keep a hold of every pick available to you.  And if a given player is definitely not in your plans, move him for more picks and/or (preferably "and") prospects.  Collapse is not required.  Just an understanding of the situation and adhering to a rational path forward is all that is needed.  And, frankly, all that can be done.  From there, the dice roll as they will.

Edited January 26, 2023 by aziz