Detroit Blues Wings in biiiiiiig trouble going forward

[yave1964]

Called them the Blues Wings because of the Wings penchant for picking up former St. Louis Blues reclamation projects, lol....

 

  This is the season the Wings are showing at the least a push towards respectablility, problem is so many of our players are unrestricted free agents come July with the hardest GM in the world negotiating contracts. Not talking about losing guys like Abdelkader and Ericcsson or Lulja, talking about the core of the roster potentially walking at seasons end or being dealt at the deadline. A look at the Wings potential free agents and what to expect in the next 30 days or moving forward if the Wings fall out of contention

 

DYLAN LARKIN Larkin and Yzerman supposedly are miles apart in tems of money, there is a very real chance that the local boy moves on at seasons end. He wants to remain a Wing but wants paid. Unlikely to be moved at deadlineas he has a no move contract. CHANCE OF RETURNING NEXT SEASON 70 percent. I would have said 100 percent just a few months ago but getting very, very nervous

 

TYLER BERTUZZI Bert has stated he would like to return, wants long term deal. He is proving to be enormously brittle and is noticably slowing. The Wings looked at dealing him before the year, his value is dropping. Look for him to be dealt at or near the deadline with a marginal return. CHANCE OF RETURNING NEXT YEAR 35 percent

 

PIUS SUTER Has done very little this year but little has been asked, kind of buried on the bottom line. Possibly dealt, not a lot coming back or might just be a filler until let go at seasons end. CHANCE OF RETURNING 5 Ppercent

 

OSKAR SUNDQVIST Man has heart and never stops moving, worst skater i have ever seen but love to watch him play. Wings want him back, can play any of bottom three lines. CHANCE OF RETURNING 60 percent

 

ADAM ERNE An Yzerman guy, drafted by Stevie in Tampa, traded for and signed for a bit more money than he deserved. Really just a rugged 4th liner with sneaky goal scoring. These guys usually makenear  league minimum and if he is willing to take a pay cut to around a million a year Yzerman would love to have him back. CHANCE OF RETURNING 50 percent

 

OLLI MAATTA So many people ripped him but truth is he can still cover in the back end, has a decent breakout pass. Solid bottom pair guy, can play middle pair in short term. I think he is dealt for a middle round pick and Wallinder or Edvidsson takes his spot in the rotation to get a long look down the stretch. CHANCE OF RETURNING 10 percent, not a bad player tho.

 

JAKE WALLMAN This guy has recovered from near career ending injuries and has turned into a fantastic shut down defender. He will command term and okay money, something like 3 years at 2 million per. I think the Wings hold onto him. Chance of returning 90 PERCENT

 

JORDAN OESTERLE Kind of lost in the shuffle, hasnt played badly, but hasnt really impressed. Might be dealt if someone is willing to take him for a 6th rounder or so. CHANCE OF RETURNING pretty close to zero

 

ROBBERY HAGG, MARK PYSYK, MAGNUS HELLBERG, NEDELJKOVIC All will be gone at seasons end. 

 

  So the Wings have 11 unrestricted free agents taking regular shifts with the big club including their captain, Bertuzzi and Wallman, and the fun as hell to watch stomping up the ice because he does not know how to glide in skates Oskar Sundqvist. I guess it isnt that bad, lots of bodies but as long as Lark and two of the other three return as for the rest they are all very replaceable. With the cap going up, that could and should leave us with

 

Berggren Larkin Zadina

Kubalik Copp Perron

Sundqvist Rasmussen Raymond

Fabbri Soderblom Veleno

Vrana

 

Saider Wallinder

Chiarot Hronek

Edvinsson Wallman

McIsaac

 

Husso

 

So Bert walks in this scenario, Larkin resigns as well as Sundqvist and Wallman and the rest move on never to be seen again until old timers games. Still lots of talent among the forwards, two young skilled defenders join the mix leaving a ridiculous amount of cap space to build as needed. 

Sundqvist may be allowed to go with Erne remaining, they are essentailly the same player but Stevie likes Erne. 

 

 The key is Larkin. Resign him, take advantage of the cap going up by adding to the roster while moving a few kids like Soderblom, McIsaac, Edvidsson and Wallinder into the shuffle and the Wings could be in good position goijng into next year. Lose Larkin, it changes the complexion completely. 

 

 

[SpikeDDS]

@yave1964

 

My thoughts paragraph by paragraph/player by player:

 

Dylan Larkin--We are heading towards unstoppable force/immovable object. Yzerman DOES NOT BLUFF! He will be silent, but he won't play the back-and forth negotiation game for long AT ALL. If Larkin's agent is suggesting that at all, he is a fool! But actually, maybe not, if his agent is thinking of himself. Larkin might get more from other teams, which means more for the agent. If Larkin really wants to stay home, he should take $8.2M and be happy. That's more than Nick Lidstrom ever got, and Larkin isn't even in Lidstrom's time zone as far as value goes. I like Larkin, but he's no Federov, Yzerman, Datsyuk, or Zetterberg. He's just not!

 

I don't think Yzerman is afraid of a total rebuild at all. He might prefer not to go that route, but he won't sacrifice the long-term plan to give Larkin $1M that he doesn't think he deserves. He saw the repeated mistakes by Kenny Holland of rewarding loyal players too much for too long. He's not going to make that same mistake. That's what got us here!!

 

The trouble with Larkin might be finding a team to take him for a legit price. Larkin should mean a chance at Bedard as part of the package (apart from a Horvat deal), but playoff teams willing to take him on would have first round picks so low, it wouldn't improve our chances any. And most rebuilding teams that could NEED a guy like Larkin are tanking to try for Bedard as well. Only a true bubble team would really fit. I think it might be hard to trade him with his AAV and everyone angling for Bedard. Tough year to try to do it.

 

Same with Bert, but Bert's upside is that no one plays his game that we have. But that alone won't make Yzerman keep him. But his injuries DO have to lower Bert's value, so if he can get that right, I'm totally fine keeping Bert. If not, you're right, he's probably gone. But if we aren't able to get Larkin to come to his senses, and we lose him, do you think Yzerman will let them both go? That'd be pretty radical, but I can't say I couldn't see Stevie do it.

 

Finally, remember that Steve Yzerman--not once, but TWICE--either lowered his contract ask or gave money back in order to allow the Wings to acquire more talent to win more Cups. He learned the hard way--and PRE-CAP--that you can't win if you don't have talent all around you. He wants Larkin to own that and also, TBH, be honest about what he really deserves. You look at the list of players getting $8+M or more and there aren't many I wouldn't trade him for. I'm not saying he's not worth $8M, but he's NOT worth $9M. He may get it with another team. I don't think he's gonna get it with Detroit.

 

Oskar Sundqvist--Are you saying he's a worse skater than Homer?! I dunno bud! I think Homer's better scoring touch might help you forget how bad a skater he was. He was BAD! His net front game was just so good though, that you could forgive him for the skating. That, and he kept the Perfect Human perfectly happy.

 

Olli Maatta--I'm not a hater at all, but his trade value makes more sense. Good enough return methinks.

 

Jake Wallman--REALLY like the return on this gamble. He's been a delight. Not just shutdown D, but he's got puck skills to boot, and and offensive upside I wasn't aware of. I like him! One of my favorite surprises.

 

Missing from the discussion--David Perron. I wouldn't say the chances of him being moved were zero, but they are low. But again, anything can be had for the right price. Certainly, if we lose Larkin, Perron won't be going anywhere. We need the leadership in the room.

[yave1964]

24 minutes ago, SpikeDDS said:

@yave1964

 

My thoughts paragraph by paragraph/player by player:

 

Dylan Larkin--We are heading towards unstoppable force/immovable object. Yzerman DOES NOT BLUFF! He will be silent, but he won't play the back-and forth negotiation game for long AT ALL. If Larkin's agent is suggesting that at all, he is a fool! But actually, maybe not, if his agent is thinking of himself. Larkin might get more from other teams, which means more for the agent. If Larkin really wants to stay home, he should take $8.2M and be happy. That's more than Nick Lidstrom ever got, and Larkin isn't even in Lidstrom's time zone as far as value goes. I like Larkin, but he's no Federov, Yzerman, Datsyuk, or Zetterberg. He's just not!

 

I don't think Yzerman is afraid of a total rebuild at all. He might prefer not to go that route, but he won't sacrifice the long-term plan to give Larkin $1M that he doesn't think he deserves. He saw the repeated mistakes by Kenny Holland of rewarding loyal players too much for too long. He's not going to make that same mistake. That's what got us here!!

 

The trouble with Larkin might be finding a team to take him for a legit price. Larkin should mean a chance at Bedard as part of the package (apart from a Horvat deal), but playoff teams willing to take him on would have first round picks so low, it wouldn't improve our chances any. And most rebuilding teams that could NEED a guy like Larkin are tanking to try for Bedard as well. Only a true bubble team would really fit. I think it might be hard to trade him with his AAV and everyone angling for Bedard. Tough year to try to do it.

 

Same with Bert, but Bert's upside is that no one plays his game that we have. But that alone won't make Yzerman keep him. But his injuries DO have to lower Bert's value, so if he can get that right, I'm totally fine keeping Bert. If not, you're right, he's probably gone. But if we aren't able to get Larkin to come to his senses, and we lose him, do you think Yzerman will let them both go? That'd be pretty radical, but I can't say I couldn't see Stevie do it.

 

Finally, remember that Steve Yzerman--not once, but TWICE--either lowered his contract ask or gave money back in order to allow the Wings to acquire more talent to win more Cups. He learned the hard way--and PRE-CAP--that you can't win if you don't have talent all around you. He wants Larkin to own that and also, TBH, be honest about what he really deserves. You look at the list of players getting $8+M or more and there aren't many I wouldn't trade him for. I'm not saying he's not worth $8M, but he's NOT worth $9M. He may get it with another team. I don't think he's gonna get it with Detroit.

 

Oskar Sundqvist--Are you saying he's a worse skater than Homer?! I dunno bud! I think Homer's better scoring touch might help you forget how bad a skater he was. He was BAD! His net front game was just so good though, that you could forgive him for the skating. That, and he kept the Perfect Human perfectly happy.

 

Olli Maatta--I'm not a hater at all, but his trade value makes more sense. Good enough return methinks.

 

Jake Wallman--REALLY like the return on this gamble. He's been a delight. Not just shutdown D, but he's got puck skills to boot, and and offensive upside I wasn't aware of. I like him! One of my favorite surprises.

 

Missing from the discussion--David Perron. I wouldn't say the chances of him being moved were zero, but they are low. But again, anything can be had for the right price. Certainly, if we lose Larkin, Perron won't be going anywhere. We need the leadership in the room.

Bertuzzi is very tradeable because he does not have a no trade clause in his contract. I think he is gone like a cool breeze as soon as he is healthy enough and shows something. 

  Lark on the other hand has a full no move clause in his contract. He holds all the cards, Yzerman cannot deal him without his permission. 

 

 I didnt mention Perron (or Kubalik) because both have another year on their deal that they are locked in for. 

 

Yeah Homer was DREADFUL on skates. I used to joke with a friend of mine that when the Wings were on the power play Yzerman and Shanny would grab his arms and glide him in front of the opposing goalie and plant him there, lol. But Sundqvist, watch him, he doesnt appear to know how to glide, he lifts his feet off the ice, almost running rather than skating. He is a unique player, really hope that he and Wallman can be kept.

 

  One quick hit with Yzerman when he was the GM in Tampa, Stamkos was due to be a free agent and Yzerman was not budging. The Hockey News even ran a cover as the free agent intro with Stamkos pic photoshopped into half a dozen teams sweaters. Yzerman had him in a day before free agency began and essentially told him, you can get more elsewhere or you can be a god in tampa. Stamkos signed the next day for much less than Toronto among others almost certainly would have offered. Yzerman knows that Larkin wants to be in Detroit, I am assuming at some point the same pitch will be given to Larkin, and I wouldnt be surprised if he took it.

[radoran]

4 hours ago, yave1964 said:

Bertuzzi is very tradeable because he does not have a no trade clause in his contract. I think he is gone like a cool breeze as soon as he is healthy enough and shows something. 

 

Right, like there's a franchise out there looking for physicality and willing to give up valuable rebuilding assets to take a risk on injury history.

 

Pshaw.

 

 

Edited January 26, 2023 by radoran

[SpikeDDS]

12 hours ago, yave1964 said:

One quick hit with Yzerman when he was the GM in Tampa, Stamkos was due to be a free agent and Yzerman was not budging. The Hockey News even ran a cover as the free agent intro with Stamkos pic photoshopped into half a dozen teams sweaters. Yzerman had him in a day before free agency began and essentially told him, you can get more elsewhere or you can be a god in tampa. Stamkos signed the next day for much less than Toronto among others almost certainly would have offered. Yzerman knows that Larkin wants to be in Detroit, I am assuming at some point the same pitch will be given to Larkin, and I wouldnt be surprised if he took it.

 

Yzerman did that himself. Then Lidstrom did it after watching and learning from the master. Both won Cups because of their sacrifices.

 

This is a little different, in that Larkin is not likely to win a Cup any time soon if he stays a Wing. Maybe toward the end of this contract he would sign. Maybe! But it is right that he will never have the status he would enjoy if he stayed a Wing if he goes to any other team. He will be just another 2C, maybe even a 1C. But just a good player, not a star or a legend. His best chance of leaving a legacy is staying put.

 

It might be different if he would get 2-3 more million per season somewhere else, but he won't. He's not worth $10M per season, and even if he got that, NO ONE is going to give it to him for 8 years. He's a great player. I hope he is smart enough to stay. But agents can feed you crazy ideas and give some delusions of grandeur. Hope Larkin is smarter than that.