Flyers 2023 Entry Level Draft - 7th overall (confirmed)

[OccamsRazor]

On 5/24/2023 at 5:42 PM, flyercanuck said:

Hart, same thing.

 

So i think it is now very safe to say Hart is part of the rebuild and way into his next contract.

 

And it would take a huge deal coming back to move him something even better than this...

 

Getting fair value for goaltenders via trade has never been easy, with the most significant goaltender deal in recent history being when Darcy Kuemper (31 at the time) was traded to the Colorado Avalanche from the Arizona Coyotes for Conor Timmins, a first-round pick in the 2022 NHL Draft and a conditional third-round pick in the 2024 NHL Draft. Given Hart’s age and pedigree, I’d imagine the Flyers would be looking for more than that.

[OccamsRazor]

So there will be options and it will be the determining factors of them thinking they can get Ivan playing good hockey or not and is he part of the great blueline they want to rebuild in front of Hart...

 

Teams have been calling on defenseman Ivan Provorov, but it has been nothing more than “tire kicking” at this point. No official offer has been submitted for the 26-year-old blueliner, as teams have been gauging what it will take to pry him out of Philadelphia.

 

As I’ve reported, the Flyers are using the Jakob Chychrun and Mattias Ekholm deals as a benchmark for what they want in return for Provorov. I have been told several times, however, that the Flyers do not feel like they’re in a position where they have to trade him and are comfortable hanging onto Provorov should they not get a fair offer.

The St. Louis Blues are among the teams who have kicked tires on Provorov, who has two years remaining on his contract with an AAV of $6.75 million.

[OccamsRazor]

TDA finished 21st in goal scoring last season despite it not being a great season for him.

 

So he is moveable for sure but the team he goes to will have to pair him with a solid defenseman like he was with Pesce in Carolina.

 

Flyers have indicated they will even pick up salary to move him so i expect him to move for something at the draft no less.

 

Right hand defenseman are a hot commodity so not worried about him at all.

 

Hayes will be the difficult move for sure...

[pilldoc]

1 hour ago, OccamsRazor said:

So there will be options and it will be the determining factors of them thinking they can get Ivan playing good hockey or not and is he part of the great blueline they want to rebuild in front of Hart...

 

Teams have been calling on defenseman Ivan Provorov, but it has been nothing more than “tire kicking” at this point. No official offer has been submitted for the 26-year-old blueliner, as teams have been gauging what it will take to pry him out of Philadelphia.

 

As I’ve reported, the Flyers are using the Jakob Chychrun and Mattias Ekholm deals as a benchmark for what they want in return for Provorov. I have been told several times, however, that the Flyers do not feel like they’re in a position where they have to trade him and are comfortable hanging onto Provorov should they not get a fair offer.

The St. Louis Blues are among the teams who have kicked tires on Provorov, who has two years remaining on his contract with an AAV of $6.75 million.

 

Interesting you posted that .... I just read yet another really good article from Charlie O'Connor regarding Provy.

 

In a nutshell the question is ... if Provorov was traded this summer, what would he bring back in a deal?

 

Charlies concludes that it is difficult to actually determine his trade value because the defenseman trade market frankly makes little sense, at least in terms of statistical evaluation. Basically, it’s hard to predict what Provorov would garner in a trade, because it really depends on whether a few teams convince themselves that he’s better than his recent stats imply.

 

Face it ...statistically Provy has been on the downward slide for the past 3 years as the following chart shows.

 

 

Early in his career, Provorov looked to be on track to develop into a legitimate point producer at five-on-five. Those days are long gone — now, it’s been four consecutive seasons in which he’s scored like a third-pair blueliner by Points/60.

 

Nor has he been able to make up for it on the power play. In fact, there have been 92 NHL defensemen who have skated for at least 400 minutes on the power play since Provorov entered the league in 2016-17. When it comes to Points scored per 60 minutes on the PP among that group, Provorov ranks … 92nd. There’s a legitimate case to be made that he’s been the worst PP defenseman in the NHL over a large sample, and the Flyers had every justification to pull him out of those duties.

 

As if that is bad enough it appears he defensive side is slipping too.

 

 

 

Both charts courtesy of Charlie O'Connor and All data courtesy of Evolving-Hockey’s RAPM model and even strength only. Note: it’s better for offensive impact to be positive, and defensive impact to be negative.

 

So yes, Provorov’s recent work pales in comparison to what Jakob Chychrun provided Arizona in the three years before he was moved, which means Provorov should bring back a lot less than Chychrun did (a first-rounder and two seconds), right? Except Rasmus Ristolainen is right around where Provorov is now — and didn’t have nearly the same statistical high points as Provorov’s peak — yet brought back a similar package to Chychrun. Mattias Ekholm (first, fourth) may blow Provorov away statistically, but Seth Jones (two firsts and a second) didn’t, and he garnered even more.

 

Much of defenseman valuation in the current NHL is based on front office perception of talent and upside, and not actual results. Sure, some teams live and die by the numbers, and most seem to pay a fair amount of attention to them when it comes to forwards. For blueliners, however, it appears to be done a lot more by personal gut feel and scouting.

 

In conclusion Charlie writes ....

 

So coming up with statistical comparables for Provorov is a fool’s errand. The more relevant question is whether there are any GMs out there who think Provorov can be their Hampus Lindholm — a talented bounce-back candidate who will thrive in a new environment — and aren’t scared away by his recent results. Or their Jones — a physically gifted blueliner who the stats simply don’t get. In essence, they see what Provorov could be, not what he currently is.

 

If new GM Daniel Briere can find a few of those GMs, a trade seems likely. The market for effective top-four blueliners has been set pretty clearly at a first-round pick and an extra piece or two, and my guess is that Briere would accept such an offer if it’s in line with the returns that players like Lindholm, Ekholm and Chychrun recently garnered.

 

Now the real question is .... If Briere is serious in moving up or moving back into the 1st Round what GM's of the world are willing to dance with Briere and get a trade done?  St. Louis? Columbus? San Jose?  Those are just a few places that have been bounced around.

 

I think the writing is on the wall .... Provy's days in Philly are numbered.  IMHO, it's no longer a "if" question but a "when" question.

[GratefulFlyers]

2 hours ago, pilldoc said:

I think the writing is on the wall .... Provy's days in Philly are numbered.  IMHO, it's no longer a "if" question but a "when" question.

Probably so and it’s a crying shame. Nobody will ever know the part Flyers’ management (of their defense) played in basically ruining this guy in Philly.
 

Provorov has his share of responsibility for the way his career stalled but the Flyers are partly to blame. I can’t pinpoint one thing but there is no way a guy who looks that smart, confident and offensively aggressive his rookie year should ever turn into a shaky, indecisive turnover machine. A bad stretch, a streak of crappy games, fine, understandable, but Provorov’s funk hasn’t lifted in 5 years.
 

A damn shame but probably the best thing is trade him. Unless…I can dream…somebody who Provorov trusts and respects has a heart-to-heart with him and finds out exactly WTF is the problem.

 

Edited June 2, 2023 by GratefulFlyers

[OccamsRazor]

3 hours ago, pilldoc said:

In a nutshell the question is ... if Provorov was traded this summer, what would he bring back in a deal?

 

The 65,000 question.

 

I am not going to trade him just to trade it needs to be a good return or i am holding onto him till the trade deadline or even next year's draft. 

[pilldoc]

25 minutes ago, GratefulFlyers said:

Provorov has his share of responsibility for the way his career stalled but the Flyers are partly to blame. I can’t pinpoint one thing but there is no way a guy who looks that smart, confident and offensively aggressive his rookie year should ever turn into a shaky, indecisive turnover machine. A bad stretch, a streak of crappy games, fine, understandable, but Provorov’s funk hasn’t lifted in 5 years.

 

Just spitballing here but 2019-20 was the last time Provorov had anything resembling a high-end partner on the top pair (Matt Niskanen). Since then, it’s been failure after failure — Philippe Myers, Justin Braun, Ryan Ellis (well a few games anyway ....) , DeAngelo — in trying to get him one.  With that being said the stats table I listed above does do its best to account for partner quality and on-ice usage, and at the very least, Provorov hasn’t been elevating the play of his partners, which true impact defensemen tend to do.

 

Also another point/idea ... Could Provorov's regression be a sign of him trying to do too much to make up for the team's weaknesses? It is a position I have read before in similar articles looking to dive into his declining impact over recent years. I have often pictured Provorov as trying to plug holes with his fingers while the dam falls apart around him as if it was personal responsibility to make up for the weaknesses in the team's defensive corps. Aside from that one (1) season with Niskanen, it feels like we never got to see Provorov comfortable enough with the state of the overall defense and his place within it to simply play the game according to his natural strengths and ability.

 

When Hextall started his 'rebuild', rebuilding the defense and finding a legit no.1 d-man were a top priority. Most of us argued for that on here and were quite happy when Provorov was drafted. Provy was to fill that role and after his second season, I thought it was just a matter of time before he was listed among the league's top d-men and a consistent Norris candidate.

 

Instead, he stands as perhaps the biggest failure of those 'rebuild' efforts and a cautionary tale on how not to develop a potential top pair d-man.  Again the failure of this organization to develop their players is on full display here .....

 

Anyway that is all I got .......

 

Edited June 2, 2023 by pilldoc

[OccamsRazor]

18 hours ago, pilldoc said:

Just spitballing here but 2019-20 was the last time Provorov had anything resembling a high-end partner on the top pair (Matt Niskanen). Since then, it’s been failure after failure — Philippe Myers, Justin Braun, Ryan Ellis (well a few games anyway ....) , DeAngelo — in trying to get him one.

 

Don't forget Andrew Macdonald.

 

I haven't watched enough the last two years to say either way on Ivan honestly.

 

 

But they year he put up 17 goals and tied Victor Hedman for defensemen i was loving what i saw even before Niskanen but the carousel he has had to endure has been brutal. 

 

Some one needs to look at the numbers from the top defensemen in the NHL and see what kind of stability they have had as partner and see how that reflects in their numbers.

 

I can't say but the poor kid has had many partner and the quality hasn't been top notch .

 

At 21 he was looking good and +17 and that was with Elliott and Neuvy.

 

I like Ivan he is one of my favorite players. I want to try and salvage him honestly before jettisoning him...i'd rather move Sanheim.

 

He and TK are besties - that to me one be one hell of an impact trade and return back...but you'd have to find somewhere they'd both want to go.

 

What if you used this lure San Jose in giving up #4 and something else back maybe a pick in 2024. Danny has to get creative...i'm talking about something for both sides.

 

Or 

 

TK replaces Lebanc

Sanheim

 

for 

 

#4

and William Eklund.

Kevin Lebanc (for cap reasons back).

 

Hertl Couture Konecny their top line. Please or subtract from this to make it even.

 

Edit: I feel like i am forgetting to add something but i'm jumping in the pool and will think about it. Peace.

 

But just a bourbon brain storm...

 

 

 

Edited June 3, 2023 by OccamsRazor
#bourbonup

[pilldoc]

18 minutes ago, OccamsRazor said:

Don't forget Andrew Macdonald.

 

Totally forgot about that stiff ......   was trying to erase that disaster from my memory data bank

 

19 minutes ago, OccamsRazor said:

Some one needs to look at the numbers from the top defensemen in the NHL and see what kind of stability they have had as partner and see how that reflects in their numbers.

 

Good point .....may have to do a deep dive on this one

[radoran]

6 hours ago, GratefulFlyers said:

I can’t pinpoint one thing but there is no way a guy who looks that smart, confident and offensively aggressive his rookie year should ever turn into a shaky, indecisive turnover machine.

 

It's called being ona bad team.

 

If you don't have a forward to make the pass to, you get stuck "not making the breakout pass."

 

You are spot on that Provorov has his share of the blame, but it's also why a "change of scenery" (often to a better team with a better situation looking to add the player) helps players.

 

And why the Flyers might have wanted to make a player development change much sooner...

[flyercanuck]

10 hours ago, radoran said:

why the Flyers might have wanted to make a player development change much sooner...

 

Just like their medical staff, everyone on the planet can see there's a problem there.

[OccamsRazor]

12 hours ago, radoran said:

And why the Flyers might have wanted to make a player development change much sooner...

 

This the smart move.

 

What is the point of filling the classroom with good quality students and then having a teacher, who shouldn't even be allowed to be a substitute teacher, much less a full time one  - now be allowed to teach your assets??

 

Your assets now have become dumber/devalued....now you scramble trying to figure out now what could have gone wrong and would just prefer to get new students instead of finding them a great teacher.

[OccamsRazor]

I think this is going to make Columbus a hard sell for Kevin Hayes now.

 

Damn it. Where to now?

[ruxpin]

1 hour ago, OccamsRazor said:

I think this is going to make Columbus a hard sell for Kevin Hayes now.

 

Damn it. Where to now?

 

[OccamsRazor]

Might be a good team to hit for some picks...

 

 

...going to be hard to swindle Yzerman though.

[GrittyForever]

and with the 22nd pick..............

 

Daniil But or Theo Lindstein  (assuming Bonk is already taken)

[OccamsRazor]

On 6/7/2023 at 12:24 AM, GrittyForever said:

and with the 22nd pick..............

 

Daniil But or Theo Lindstein  (assuming Bonk is already taken)

 

I'm good holding onto Hart if the trade ain't right and taking this kid at 7...

 

Him and Cutter can start the chemistry next season at BC.

[GrittyForever]

I have no problem with that. The early pick will be hard to mess up. Lots of good players. What about the second first rounder we have now though? That's the one that's trickier. 

[GratefulFlyers]

On 6/2/2023 at 10:36 PM, radoran said:

And why the Flyers might have wanted to make a player development change much sooner...

You guys covered it already I just want to add my Amen to this. Apparently they have made some changes last week. Kjell Samuelsson is out along with a couple other guys. I know Samuelsson was in Player Development not sure about the other two.

 

This is the most important part of the rebuild, arguably even more important than who you draft it’s who will be developing i.e. training and coaching the prospects once they’re in the organization. This is where Keith Jones earns his money. All his years around the NHL - fingers crossed - he should know who’s qualified to run the development team. Just like firing Fletcher any change will be an improvement.

[OccamsRazor]

22 hours ago, GrittyForever said:

I have no problem with that. The early pick will be hard to mess up. Lots of good players. What about the second first rounder we have now though? That's the one that's trickier. 

 

I'd pick the phone up and ask Arizona would they take Sanheim for #12 or the Blackhawks for #19.

 

Doesn't hurt to ask...his NTC doesn't kick in till July 1st.

[GrittyForever]

1 hour ago, OccamsRazor said:

 

I'd pick the phone up and ask Arizona would they take Sanheim for #12 or the Blackhawks for #19.

 

Doesn't hurt to ask...his NTC doesn't kick in till July 1st.

We're going to run out of D men at that rate. I'm not against moving anybody, but Sanheim's not at the top of my list by any stretch. 

[radoran]

4 minutes ago, OccamsRazor said:

 

I'd pick the phone up and ask Arizona would they take Sanheim for #12 or the Blackhawks for #19.

 

Doesn't hurt to ask...his NTC doesn't kick in till July 1st.

 

 

[OccamsRazor]

4 hours ago, GrittyForever said:

We're going to run out of D men at that rate.

 

Not following.

 

York

Walker

Risto

Seeler

Zaumla

Attard

 

And that would be assuming they move TDA which well they have plenty of guys.

 

Not saying the team will be good but it wouldn't be with Samheim either.

[ruxpin]

Sanheim clearly had a bad year, but he's not anywhere near the top of my list of problems.  I think with any decent teammates he's a sound defenseman.

 

But he's signed at >$6M until he's 33.  It's simply an asinine contract before you add the NTC into it.

 

If you can find some idiot to give you a first round pick for that player and situation, by all means do it and laugh your ass all the way home.  Make sure you keep the receipts so you're not accused of shoplifting.

 

I don't know how you get a first round pick for that player and circumstance without a gun and a video of the other GMs kids locked in the basement of a Guatemalan sex trafficker.   But certainly try. Maybe don't try the gun and the video, though. 

 

[Dear Secret Service:  this was intended as hyperbolic illustration and not as a legitimate suggestion]

[flyercanuck]

32 minutes ago, ruxpin said:

Sanheim clearly had a bad year, but he's not anywhere near the top of my list of problems.  I think with any decent teammates he's a sound defenseman.

 

But he's signed at >$6M until he's 33.  It's simply an asinine contract before you add the NTC into it.

 

If you can find some idiot to give you a first round pick for that player and situation, by all means do it and laugh your ass all the way home.  Make sure you keep the receipts so you're not accused of shoplifting.

 

I don't know how you get a first round pick for that player and circumstance without a gun and a video of the other GMs kids locked in the basement of a Guatemalan sex trafficker.   But certainly try. Maybe don't try the gun and the video, though. 

 

[Dear Secret Service:  this was intended as hyperbolic illustration and not as a legitimate suggestion]

 

It amazes me how this franchise can take really good hockey players and turn them into stiffs, while overpaying or over terming them, or both.