Flyers Goaltending: An Assessment

[Howie58]

I thought this piece from Crossing Broad was worth posting:

 

https://www.crossingbroad.com/2024/12/flyers-goaltending-is-a-problem-again.html

 

Our save percentage is league worst (I don't think Ers' 21 of 25, .840 last night helped).  

As @JR Ewing noted in the CBJ game thread, Our actual goals exceeds expected by 16. That's 3-4 losses (I think).  The eye test says our trio comes up with a brilliant save but lets in a stinker (or two) along the way.

 

Is it youth, the D, or incompetence?  Yep, Stolarz is at the top...but with an outstanding team and experience.  Mrazek...we kicked him out after a dozen or so.  But as the article notes, we did better with the Hart/Ersson duo with a fairly similar player mix.  

 

I imagine Briere and Company, along with Torts, face a complicated decision moving forward.  The second half of the season may help.  I suspect moving Fedotov would give more playing time for the survivors, helping analysis.  All that said, it looks like shot suppression/blocking is keeping things from getting worse.  

[ruxpin]

1 hour ago, Howie58 said:

I thought this piece from Crossing Broad was worth posting:

 

https://www.crossingbroad.com/2024/12/flyers-goaltending-is-a-problem-again.html

 

Our save percentage is league worst (I don't think Ers' 21 of 25, .840 last night helped).  

As @JR Ewing noted in the CBJ game thread, Our actual goals exceeds expected by 16. That's 3-4 losses (I think).  The eye test says our trio comes up with a brilliant save but lets in a stinker (or two) along the way.

 

Is it youth, the D, or incompetence?  Yep, Stolarz is at the top...but with an outstanding team and experience.  Mrazek...we kicked him out after a dozen or so.  But as the article notes, we did better with the Hart/Ersson duo with a fairly similar player mix.  

 

I imagine Briere and Company, along with Torts, face a complicated decision moving forward.  The second half of the season may help.  I suspect moving Fedotov would give more playing time for the survivors, helping analysis.  All that said, it looks like shot suppression/blocking is keeping things from getting worse.  

 

So, what this article (and you) seems to be implying is that the goalies are supposed to stop shots.  As a Flyers fan, I actually had no idea.

[JR Ewing]

@Howie58

 

Various charts.. For the next series of graphs, you want to be in the bottom-right portion of the graph, where the goalies are saving more shots than expected...

 

Low-danger shots: the Flyers goaltenders are giving up 67% more goals on low-danger shots than expected.

 

 

https://imgur.com/gy98kijMedium-danger shots: more livable, but not ideal. The Flyers goalies up 15% more goals on medium-danger shots than expected.

https://imgur.com/fGGLTokhttps://imgur.com/fGGLTokhttps://imgur.com/fGGLTok

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited December 22, 2024 by JR Ewing

[JR Ewing]

High-danger shots: this is where they've done their job. The Flyers goalies have been about 8% better than expected at making tough saves.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[OccamsRazor]

All i know is i can't wait till they settle on their backup because relying on 3 backups isn't a great plan

 

thank God they gave that contract to Fedotov

 

he has been their saving grace he will take back the popcorn secrets to mother Russia to spread the word

 

their future starter is training in the KHL....

 

...keystone Kops till then i guess.

[Howie58]

Greetings:

 

I guess playing CBJ made me think about a certain trade.  OK, I went back and looked at Steve Mason's numbers.  Recall that a certain HOF goalie named Parent thought we would win another Cup with him as backstop.  OK, in his four full years with us (2013-14 to 2017-18) his save percentage ranged from .908 to .928, and his GAA ranged from 2.25 to 2.66.  In retrospect, we'd probably say he was a Calder winner whose career might be typified as "Super-Journeyman."  You can also say that a chunk of his career was under Hakstol, who was into structure.  Regardless, Mason's numbers are respectable.  They are darn good relative to our current bunch, though the Flyers performance at that juncture was ahead of this squad.

 

That said, JR's numbers @JR Ewing(many thanks) suggest that our trio may not be so hot.  Or they say the trial period for this group may need to be short.  Mason had time to develop in CBJ. I'd hate to say we lost another Bobo.  But, the numbers don't lie. I just watched Torts post-game presser.  He made it clear that great saves are not what you remember the goalie for--it's the ones they should have stopped.  

Edited December 22, 2024 by Howie58

[JR Ewing]

16 minutes ago, Howie58 said:

That said, JR's numbers @JR Ewing(many thanks) suggest that our trio may not be so hot.  Or they say the trial period for this group may need to be short.  Mason had time to develop in CBJ. I'd hate to say we lost another Bobo.  But, the numbers don't lie. I just watched Torts post-game presser.  He made it clear that great saves are not what you remember the goalie for--it's the ones they should have stopped.  

 

100%

 

It absolutely kills a team when the goalie can't be relied on to save the easy ones, and they learn to not trust him. It doesn't really matter if you made a great save on a tough shot when you allowed two or three on muffins.

[flyerdog]

On 12/22/2024 at 3:34 PM, JR Ewing said:

 

100%

 

It absolutely kills a team when the goalie can't be relied on to save the easy ones, and they learn to not trust him. It doesn't really matter if you made a great save on a tough shot when you allowed two or three on muffins.

 

 

yup.....I can accept when teams score on us because of the "Nothing he could do about that one" goals, but as I said in another thread...we have too many instances of "He'd like that one back"...

 

and  consistency...there have been times this season and last where we have all agreed that Ers had a monster game and won it for them...but these occurrences seem to be diminishing more and more...

 

Fedotov was a gamble and I'm ok that they took the risk...they were hoping for Pekka Rinne but they got Michael Leighton instead....It  sucks that we don't have Brian Elliot right now,  He would not have been a cure-all, but he would have stabilized the position and given Ers the proper rest he needs...

[RonJeremy]

1 hour ago, flyerdog said:

 

 

yup.....I can accept when teams score on us because of the "Nothing he could do about that one" goals, but as I said in another thread...we have too many instances of "He'd like that one back"...

 

and  consistency...there have been times this season and last where we have all agreed that Ers had a monster game and won it for them...but these occurrences seem to be diminishing more and more...

 

Fedotov was a gamble and I'm ok that they took the risk...they were hoping for Pekka Rinne but they got Michael Leighton instead....It  sucks that we don't have Brian Elliot right now,  He would not have been a cure-all, but he would have stabilized the position and given Ers the proper rest he needs...

On a good note , if things continue like this we are assured of a top five pick, which is far more important than barely making the playoffs. We still need a legit #1 center and dman, we have some good wings and we have the goalie prospects in Zavragin and Bjornstrom, so losing for 2-3 more years is actually a good thing. We have to hit big in the next two drafts.

[radoran]

8 minutes ago, RonJeremy said:

if things continue like this we are assured of a top five pick

 

There are currently 10 teams below them in the standings...

[GratefulFlyers]

On 12/22/2024 at 3:34 PM, JR Ewing said:

 

100%

 

It absolutely kills a team when the goalie can't be relied on to save the easy ones, and they learn to not trust him. It doesn't really matter if you made a great save on a tough shot when you allowed two or three on muffins.

 

Great saves followed by WTF back-breakers really drain skaters. The will to compete starts to go; when the will goes the legs go right with it. Nobody can blame them for losing faith in Ersson, though they must accept some responsibility too for the Flyers' GAA.

 

The charts suggest the Flyers' goaltending problem isn't technical or mechanical they point to a mental thing that manifests as a lack of focus. If that's the case (and I think it is with Ersson) it may possibly be corrected. Ersson's clearly got the skills to stop pucks in the NHL. He's got what all good goalies have except an ability to stay sharp during the game.

 

Ersson was promoted into the NHL at least a year too soon. As Hart's backup he did pretty well but the question now is whether he can ever become a good starting goalie for the Flyers. Given their track record handling goaltenders - Ersson is only the most recent FAIL - I tend to doubt it. But if they wanted to develop a goalie properly, patiently now would be the time and Ersson a logical choice and (I believe) an excellent investment.

 

Edited December 26, 2024 by GratefulFlyers

[flyer4ever]

None of this is news or new to the goalie graveyard AKA The Philly Flyers. Bernie lost to an eye injury, Pelle lost to a Porsche, Hart lost to entitlement, and Hexy got even by passing over not 1 but 2 of the top 5 dmen in the world. It's laughable to think of all the good ones they have moved on from who were in the system. And they are still paying the great Bryz.  Dysfunction in Flyer junction.

[mojo1917]

Flyers Goaltending: It's terrible.

I think I might understand the issue with Ersson. 

When he thinks his body isn't right, he blows.

 

This happened when he was in the A also.

If he's feeling tip-top all systems go, he is perfectly fine., however in 82 games guys are going to get nicked up and when he's nicked he is not good, borderline not NHL caliber.

The .640 vs Pgh was Keystone cops laughably bad.

I like him, that said, I guess his "development track" needs to include playing well when he's not 100% healthy.

 

 

 

 

 

[BobbyClarkeFan16]

I know it's easy to point the fingers at the goaltenders because they are the last line and they aren't getting the job done. At the same time, how much of their play is directly related to what they're being coached by the goalie coach? Just look at the list of goalies that Kim Dillabaugh has worked with since coming to Philadelphia and not one of them had a stellar performance under his watch. Not only that, but when Carson Bjarnasson made the World Junior team, he was asked about his playing style and was there anything he changed. He said that he was informed that he needed to play deep and low in his net, but that HE decided because he was a bigger goalie that he needed to change and play a more stand up style of game and not play so deep in his net. Look at the Flyers goalies and see how they play. They all play deep in the net and they play a smaller game than they should. 

 

I'm convinced that they're getting flat out bad instruction from Dillabaugh and that he has no clue how to coach goalies. Think of it. He's a partial list of the goalies that Dillabaugh has had to work with: 

 

Steve Mason

Michael Neuvirth 

Anthony Stolarz

Cam Talbot

Brian Elliott 

Peter Mrazek

Carter Hart

Samuel Ersson

Ivan Fedotov

Alexei Kolosov

 

That's 10 goaltenders and not a single goaltender panned or under Dillabaugh's watch. That's what's scary. Not one goalie got better under him. I'd love to see the Flyers bring in Mitch Korn and see what he can do because I'm willing to bet that the goaltending would change for the better immediately.

Edited December 26, 2024 by BobbyClarkeFan16

[RonJeremy]

On 12/24/2024 at 10:22 AM, radoran said:

 

There are currently 10 teams below them in the standings...

I mean if we continue like this most recent losing streak with horrible goaltending. 

[RonJeremy]

5 hours ago, flyer4ever said:

None of this is news or new to the goalie graveyard AKA The Philly Flyers. Bernie lost to an eye injury, Pelle lost to a Porsche, Hart lost to entitlement, and Hexy got even by passing over not 1 but 2 of the top 5 dmen in the world. It's laughable to think of all the good ones they have moved on from who were in the system. And they are still paying the great Bryz.  Dysfunction in Flyer junction.

Hart didn't lose to entitlement, he lost to his D

[RonJeremy]

1 hour ago, BobbyClarkeFan16 said:

I know it's easy to point the fingers at the goaltenders because they are the last line and they aren't getting the job done. At the same time, how much of their play is directly related to what they're being coached by the goalie coach? Just look at the list of goalies that Kim Dillabaugh has worked with since coming to Philadelphia and not one of them had a stellar performance under his watch. Not only that, but when Carson Bjarnasson made the World Junior team, he was asked about his playing style and was there anything he changed. He said that he was informed that he needed to play deep and low in his net, but that HE decided because he was a bigger goalie that he needed to change and play a more stand up style of game and not play so deep in his net. Look at the Flyers goalies and see how they play. They all play deep in the net and they play a smaller game than they should. 

 

I'm convinced that they're getting flat out bad instruction from Dillabaugh and that he has no clue how to coach goalies. Think of it. He's a partial list of the goalies that Dillabaugh has had to work with: 

 

Steve Mason

Michael Neuvirth 

Anthony Stolarz

Cam Talbot

Brian Elliott 

Peter Mrazek

Carter Hart

Samuel Ersson

Ivan Fedotov

Alexei Kolosov

 

That's 10 goaltenders and not a single goaltender panned or under Dillabaugh's watch. That's what's scary. Not one goalie got better under him. I'd love to see the Flyers bring in Mitch Korn and see what he can do because I'm willing to bet that the goaltending would change for the better immediately.

Build Back Better. Trust The Processes!

[BobbyClarkeFan16]

26 minutes ago, RonJeremy said:

Trust The Processes!

Except when Kim Dillabaugh is involved. Run rabbit, run!!!!

[mkscrewy]

sure. it worked for the Sixers too. Look at all those titles.

 

And we didn't lose HArt to entitlement or defense. HArt the goalie was doing fine. He was just a ****** piece of **** and got kicked out of the league. Can't do much about that.

[RonJeremy]

1 hour ago, BobbyClarkeFan16 said:

Except when Kim Dillabaugh is involved. Run rabbit, run!!!!

I was being sarcastic, the process was a failure ,especially when it was built around a lazy, overweight player who has never been in top shape and always has injuries.  They proved you just don’t draft players that don’t fit, you actually have to have plan and fit the pieces together.

[BobbyClarkeFan16]

34 minutes ago, RonJeremy said:

I was being sarcastic, the process was a failure ,especially when it was built around a lazy, overweight player who has never been in top shape and always has injuries.  They proved you just don’t draft players that don’t fit, you actually have to have plan and fit the pieces together.

Drafting 101 - ALWAYS draft the best player available. Never draft for need. It's nice if the best available player fits a need, but if it doesn't, at the very least, it is a piece that can be used to acquire said missing piece. The Flyers simply don't think like that. That's why the prospect pool is an absolute hodge podge of players.

[RonJeremy]

11 hours ago, BobbyClarkeFan16 said:

Drafting 101 - ALWAYS draft the best player available. Never draft for need. It's nice if the best available player fits a need, but if it doesn't, at the very least, it is a piece that can be used to acquire said missing piece. The Flyers simply don't think like that. That's why the prospect pool is an absolute hodge podge of players.

Let’s see how that worked out for the Sixers, they drafted plenty of top six guys they thought were the best available, there was no real spot for them because they drafted players that did not fit with the core they had, so they didn’t play much, their value diminished and when they traded them they got practically nothing for them . Best player available is a farce, it’s all relative who the best player available is according to different teams scouts and GM. Other than the top two or three guys, the teams are wrong most of the time. We thought Luchenko was the best player available , he probably wasn’t. It’s like saying Mike Bossy is better than Dennis Potvin.  You can maybe compare players who play the same position but that’s it. 

[flyercanuck]

5 minutes ago, RonJeremy said:

We thought Luchenko was the best player available , he probably wasn’t. It’s like saying Mike Bossy is better than Dennis Potvin.  You can maybe compare players who play the same position but that’s it. 

 

Herein lies the problem. While other teams have Potvin and Bossy down as BPA, we have Luchanko. And they think they're smarter than everyone when they take them. Then they keep them up, just to prove it, but don't play them, cause they're nowhere near NHL ready.

 

Hockey and basketball are not the same sport. There's no ONE thing wrong with this org. But watching what the 6ers do or don't isn't going to help the Flyers./

[RonJeremy]

2 hours ago, flyercanuck said:

 

Herein lies the problem. While other teams have Potvin and Bossy down as BPA, we have Luchanko. And they think they're smarter than everyone when they take them. Then they keep them up, just to prove it, but don't play them, cause they're nowhere near NHL ready.

 

Hockey and basketball are not the same sport. There's no ONE thing wrong with this org. But watching what the 6ers do or don't isn't going to help the Flyers./

If you have no centers and tons of right wingers and it’s your turn in the draft and you rate the center at 90 out of 100, and the right wing is rated at 92 out of 100, your gonna pick a player you don’t need over a slight ratings difference? It’s not so cut and dry. If the ratings difference is significant, then you go best player available.

[BobbyClarkeFan16]

3 hours ago, RonJeremy said:

Best player available is a farce, it’s all relative who the best player available is according to different teams scouts and GM.

 

It’s like saying Mike Bossy is better than Dennis Potvin.  You can maybe compare players who play the same position but that’s it. 

Best player available isn't a farce. More often than not, most scouting departments operate similarly to central scouting. 

 

Once you get outside the first 100 picks, that's when it becomes more of a guessing game because in a lot of cases, you're looking at players that simply haven't had the same set of eyes on them that others have had. 

 

As for Bossy and Potvin, I'm taking Potvin over Bossy 100 times out of 100 times. Finding franchise defensemen that can play both offense and defense and can log heavy minutes is much, much harder than finding goal scoring wingers. And these are both Hall of Famers we're talking about. New York isn't the dynasty without Potvin, regardless of how good Bossy was. And honestly, Bossy was as good as he was because of Bryan Trottier. Don't underestimate how much heavy lifting Bryan did. 

 

And if we're going to talk about position vs position, while I l was living in Ottawa back in 1993, they had a choice between Alexander Daigle and Chris Pronger. Ottawa didn't have a franchise defenseman and they already had a franchise center waiting in Alexei Yashin. I can tell you with certainty that many people wanted Pronger, but Ottawa chose Daigle because of their proximity to Quebec and having a francophone who could draw crowds. We all know how that turned out. So yes, you can definitely compare players depending on the impact they will have on your franchise.