Flyers Goaltending: An Assessment

[OccamsRazor]

On 12/22/2024 at 11:18 AM, Howie58 said:

I thought this piece from Crossing Broad was worth posting:

 

https://www.crossingbroad.com/2024/12/flyers-goaltending-is-a-problem-again.html

 

Our save percentage is league worst (I don't think Ers' 21 of 25, .840 last night helped).  

As @JR Ewing noted in the CBJ game thread, Our actual goals exceeds expected by 16. That's 3-4 losses (I think).  The eye test says our trio comes up with a brilliant save but lets in a stinker (or two) along the way.

 

Is it youth, the D, or incompetence?  Yep, Stolarz is at the top...but with an outstanding team and experience.  Mrazek...we kicked him out after a dozen or so.  But as the article notes, we did better with the Hart/Ersson duo with a fairly similar player mix.  

 

I imagine Briere and Company, along with Torts, face a complicated decision moving forward.  The second half of the season may help.  I suspect moving Fedotov would give more playing time for the survivors, helping analysis.  All that said, it looks like shot suppression/blocking is keeping things from getting worse.  

 

Don't worry help is only a few years away

 

 

[BobbyClarkeFan16]

It's funny reading how little Yaroslav Askarov went for, yet the Flyers thought the price was too high. Who in the organization places low values in goaltending? Two of the senior advisors, Bobby Clarke and Paul Holmgren. Yet more evidence that their influence is felt throughout the organization. If the price works have been Ersson, Tuomaala and either the Colorado or Edmonton first, would anyone have made that deal? Other than the resident glue eater, I'm willing to bet most on here would have.

[ruxpin]

1 hour ago, BobbyClarkeFan16 said:

It's funny reading how little Yaroslav Askarov went for, yet the Flyers thought the price was too high. Who in the organization places low values in goaltending? Two of the senior advisors, Bobby Clarke and Paul Holmgren. Yet more evidence that their influence is felt throughout the organization. If the price works have been Ersson, Tuomaala and either the Colorado or Edmonton first, would anyone have made that deal? Other than the resident glue eater, I'm willing to bet most on here would have.

 

Without blinking. I could have been convinced to through in Laughton, too, no matter how integral he is.

[RonJeremy]

8 hours ago, BobbyClarkeFan16 said:

Best player available isn't a farce. More often than not, most scouting departments operate similarly to central scouting. 

 

Once you get outside the first 100 picks, that's when it becomes more of a guessing game because in a lot of cases, you're looking at players that simply haven't had the same set of eyes on them that others have had. 

 

As for Bossy and Potvin, I'm taking Potvin over Bossy 100 times out of 100 times. Finding franchise defensemen that can play both offense and defense and can log heavy minutes is much, much harder than finding goal scoring wingers. And these are both Hall of Famers we're talking about. New York isn't the dynasty without Potvin, regardless of how good Bossy was. And honestly, Bossy was as good as he was because of Bryan Trottier. Don't underestimate how much heavy lifting Bryan did. 

 

And if we're going to talk about position vs position, while I l was living in Ottawa back in 1993, they had a choice between Alexander Daigle and Chris Pronger. Ottawa didn't have a franchise defenseman and they already had a franchise center waiting in Alexei Yashin. I can tell you with certainty that many people wanted Pronger, but Ottawa chose Daigle because of their proximity to Quebec and having a francophone who could draw crowds. We all know how that turned out. So yes, you can definitely compare players depending on the impact they will have on your franchise. 

 

 

Of course you take the dman,if it’s Potvin but if you already have three incredible dmen and nothing in other areas , do you still take the dman. Hypothetically I used these names saying they are both great, but if you have literally nothing at one position, like the Flyers have at center, when do you make the move and  pick a center , even if he is slightly rated lower. You can’t always trade for a center and you might not ever be in a high enough position to pick a center the following year. The Flyers have three first round picks and lots of good young wingers and we have not been able to trade for a center. If it were that easy , it should have been done by now.Are we finally gonna get a center when Michkov is 28 and waste his career. 

[BobbyClarkeFan16]

6 minutes ago, RonJeremy said:

Of course you take the dman,if it’s Potvin but if you already have three incredible dmen and nothing in other areas , do you still take the dman. Hypothetically I used these names saying they are both great, but if you have literally nothing at one position, like the Flyers have at center, when do you make the move and  pick a center , even if he is slightly rated lower. You can’t always trade for a center and you might not ever be in a high enough position to pick a center the following year. The Flyers have three first round picks and lots of good young wingers and we have not been able to trade for a center. If it were that easy , it should have been done by now.Are we finally gonna get a center when Michkov is 28 and waste his career. 

 

When you have three firsts and three second round picks, that's when you can afford to reach for a player. But that's not a normal situation. The Flyers were shrewd enough to make deals to acquire multiple picks this draft. That's not the norm. I will say this though - you do not reach with your first of three picks in the first round. You save that for later. 

 

The way this draft is shaping up and the way the Flyers are playing, they should be able to get a center with their first selection. After that, if they're going to take centers, then you take centers that are going the NCAA route. I get that some are going to be hesitant because of Quitter Gauthier, but if you can get William Moore and Cole McKinley, congratulations, you've just restacked the deck to go along with Luchanko and Berglund. 

[pilldoc]

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6019858/2024/12/27/flyers-goalies-ersson-kolosov-fedotov/ 

 

Will post various sections ......

 

It was the Philadelphia Flyers’ primary concern headed into the 2024-25 season. Was Samuel Ersson capable of handling the workload of a No. 1 goalie, while also getting competent support from others?

 

The answer so far is a resounding no to both questions, and it leaves the team in a perilous situation coming out of the Christmas break.

 

Through 35 games, the Flyers are the owners of the NHL’s worst goaltending. It’s not up for debate. Their .866 team save percentage ranks last (the next lowest team, Columbus, is at .875), while advanced metrics tracker Moneypuck has them at a NHL-worst 18.0 goals-against above expected at five-on-five, including Ersson’s minus-11.8 goals-saved above expected, also a league low. Most distressing is that while Ersson was serviceable through the first couple months, and even had a handful of strong performances, a groin injury that forced him from the lineup twice has seemingly thrown off his calibration.

 

Combining the workloads of Ersson, Aleksei Kolosov and Ivan Fedotov, Moneypuck has the Flyers at nearly three fewer wins than they would have with simply replacement-level goaltending. Put another way, that’s four to six more points in the standings had they gotten more stops on routine shots, placing the Flyers in either in a wild-card position or at least on the cusp of one. They’re four points behind Ottawa for the second wild-card spot now, and the Senators have a game in hand.

 

In early October, coach John Tortorella quipped that the Flyers’ goaltending situation “scares the crap” out of him. (emphasis added) Three months later, with the Flyers set to begin a five-game road trip in Anaheim on Saturday, he’s probably even more terrified.

 

Consider that when asked in mid-November about how a team’s goaltending situation can affect it from a mental standpoint, Tortorella said: “Goaltenders are the heartbeat. When they’re playing lousy, your team is miniature. When they’re letting in bad goals, your team is on its heels. When they present themselves as confident … it certainly affects what’s going on in front of (them), how (the team feels) about how they can play.”

 

In moments leading up to the break, the Flyers did look “miniature,” to use the coach’s word, after some bad goals. The first period on Monday in Pittsburgh, in which they allowed four goals, ultimately cost them the game, and although they weren’t all Ersson’s fault, the fifth one — late in the second on a stoppable shot when it was just a one-goal deficit — took the wind out of the Flyers’ sails for the third. They managed just five shots on goal in the period in a 7-3 loss against a rival club, never really getting back into the game.

 

On Dec. 21 against Columbus, the Flyers were on their heels early, and Ersson admitted after the game that two of the four goals he allowed were “sh–ty ones.” The Flyers, to their credit, stormed back multiple times to win 5-4 in overtime, but Columbus isn’t exactly among the league’s elite. Their goalie, Elvis Merzlikins, was just as leaky that night, too.

 

On Dec. 19, Kolosov’s misplay led to a game-tying goal late in the second period by Anze Kopitar in a match that was even to that point, but it resulted in the Flyers turtling in the third and allowing four goals — while mustering just two shots — in a 7-3 loss to the Kings.

Those sorts of situations were similar down the stretch last season, too, of course, as the Flyers’ goaltending was the primary reason they frittered away a playoff spot after Carter Hart’s departure in January. They couldn’t outwork the porous goaltending.

 

What they didn’t do during the struggles then, according to the players in the dressing room, is unravel behind closed doors. The renewed culture remained strong. There wasn’t any finger-pointing. They likely understood that Ersson was thrust into an unfair and unfamiliar position as a young goaltender, and none of the backups they used to give him a rest were NHL-caliber. While a few players seemed to indicate after the season that they didn’t deal very well with some of the noise around the team in the second half, from the Hart situation to Tortorella making some puzzling comments and decisions, they never turned on one another.

 

How will they handle it now, though, if the goaltending doesn’t drastically improve? It could be the biggest test for their renewed culture so far if this pattern continues, especially since it’s now been nearly a full calendar year since their goaltending position was thrust into disarray.

 

If goaltending is the heartbeat, the Flyers are flirting with a flatline. It’s a precarious place to be.

 

And the importance of a team’s culture seems to have been reinforced lately around the league.

 

The New York Rangers are in free fall after trading captain Jacob Trouba this month and waiving fourth-line glue guy Barclay Goodrow in the offseason. The Vancouver Canucks — like the Rangers, a team with preseason Stanley Cup aspirations — have disappointed, probably at least in part to a reported rift between their two top centers. The Buffalo Sabres have proven year after year that simply stockpiling young talent doesn’t always work; conversely, the Nashville Predators have shown adding big names in the offseason isn’t always a recipe for success. Patrik Laine was recently critical of his former team, the Blue Jackets, for “just giving up when it’s December,” and he should probably get the benefit of the doubt considering that organization’s dire history.

 

Make no mistake, Flyers general manager Daniel Briere and president of hockey operations Keith Jones shoulder most of the blame for the goaltending over the past 11 months. But their commitment to trying to establish something none of those aforementioned teams seems to have at the moment is looking better by the day.

 

Further, they had the foresight to notice that the goaltending pipeline needed addressing when they used second- and third-round picks on goalies in the 2023 draft, the first they ran. Both of those now 19-year-old goalies have shown promise, too. Carson Bjarnason is part of Team Canada in the upcoming World Junior Championship, while Yegor Zavragin has been particularly impressive in the KHL. Bjarnason will likely turn pro next season and play for the Phantoms, while Zavragin is under contract with SKA for two more seasons after this one.

 

Will the Flyers’ stated goal of building a strong culture and, in turn, winning games along the way remain in place until either Ersson finds his game again — still their best hope — or someone else emerges?

 

Because part of keeping that foundation strong is preventing losses from mounting. That’s impossible without reliable goaltending.

“The goaltender,” Tortorella said last month, “is really the mindset of your team.”

 

More saves may be necessary, then, to keep this unique rebuild on the level.

 

[Howie58]

It is the fate of Philadelphia Flyers fans to lose sanity and sleep over goaltending.  There must be divine being who faults us for Parent ending his career prematurely with the eye injury.  I don't know what breaks the spell/evils spirits.   

[mkscrewy]

I'm hoping Zavraghin turns out to be as good as they're hoping. Errsson is up and down. He was pretty good at times, but when he was bad, he was very bad. Maybe that's normal for a younger goaltender. Maybe he'll be ok for the time being, but I don't think they're planning on him being The Man when it's time to ramp up. The other Russian goalies are meh for the time being, but I don't *think* upper management expected more than what we have right now. I *think* they are still looking years down the road, and hoping a guy like Zavraghin is ready to roll when they are.

 

They have said again and again they don't have the money (cap) to go after big names through FA or trades, but are on the cusp of getting rid of contracts that will give them more space to work. I like the lip service they give about their plan not changing... i hope they stick to that. A good deal of $ is coming off the books this year; they should trade Risto and Laughton by the trade deadline; I don't think they (FO) plan on being "contenders" for another few years, which ostensibly fits with taking the time to strip a guy like Drysdale down to the studs and start over with him. Otherwise, they should have dumped him by now.

[ruxpin]

The honest truth is Ersson is not a starting NHL goalie and never was. He's questionable as a legitimate backup, but lesser workload probably wouldn't hurt. 

 

The other two are hot garbage.  Danny Jones had the opportunity to seize the opportunity with Askarov but lacked either the sacks or the brains and decided to hoard their mid-first round picks to use on undersized players who have no business going in the first round but sell to their idiotic fan base by inexplicably keeping them with the big club as if they're remotely NHL ready. 

 

And so we have Manny, Moe, and Jack, the three best friends the opposing offenses ever had.

[RonJeremy]

11 hours ago, BobbyClarkeFan16 said:

 

When you have three firsts and three second round picks, that's when you can afford to reach for a player. But that's not a normal situation. The Flyers were shrewd enough to make deals to acquire multiple picks this draft. That's not the norm. I will say this though - you do not reach with your first of three picks in the first round. You save that for later. 

 

The way this draft is shaping up and the way the Flyers are playing, they should be able to get a center with their first selection. After that, if they're going to take centers, then you take centers that are going the NCAA route. I get that some are going to be hesitant because of Quitter Gauthier, but if you can get William Moore and Cole McKinley, congratulations, you've just restacked the deck to go along with Luchanko and Berglund. 

Well, let's hope so but it would sure be nice to finish in the bottom five and get a top center instead of the fourth or fifth best center.  I would also like to see them package their other two firsts and get a higher pick if the right player is there . It would be great if we could replicate the draft like when we got Carter and Richards and land two good centers. 

[flyercanuck]

1 hour ago, RonJeremy said:

Well, let's hope so but it would sure be nice to finish in the bottom five and get a top center instead of the fourth or fifth best center.  I would also like to see them package their other two firsts and get a higher pick if the right player is there . It would be great if we could replicate the draft like when we got Carter and Richards and land two good centers. 

 

There was a lockout the previous year....that was basically 2 drafts in 1. Arguably the greatest draft ever. That isn't this draft.

[ruxpin]

2 hours ago, flyercanuck said:

 

There was a lockout the previous year....that was basically 2 drafts in 1. Arguably the greatest draft ever. That isn't this draft.

 

So then it's settled.  Commence the lockout!

[BobbyClarkeFan16]

3 hours ago, flyercanuck said:

 

There was a lockout the previous year....that was basically 2 drafts in 1. Arguably the greatest draft ever. That isn't this draft.

Don't kid yourself. This is a really good draft. It's deep this year. Lots of centers and left wingers, two areas the Flyers are severely lacking.

[RonJeremy]

4 hours ago, flyercanuck said:

 

There was a lockout the previous year....that was basically 2 drafts in 1. Arguably the greatest draft ever. That isn't this draft.

Sucks for us. I may never live to see another Stanley Cup in Philly. 

[OccamsRazor]

18 hours ago, BobbyClarkeFan16 said:

I will say this though - you do not reach with your first of three picks in the first round. You save that for later. 

 

 

all i am going to say is this must be Danny's masterstroke brush on this rebuild he can not afford to botch this or it will be his death knell

 

for no reason of pointing blame WHY at anyone just the fact that it did

 

Patrick

O'Brien 

Rubstov

Frost it's looking 

 

has really set this club back and i have seen many claim that Bonk is already a miss not getting into that here 

 

they can't afford anymore Laberges either if they can't hit on theses 2nds then hell they might as well as start using them for assets in trades then

 

just DON'T give them away like Holmgren did

 

for clubs that can draft they can turn them into assets so they have value

 

6 picks i would love to see them use them all if they could

 

if they do they MUST hit on at least 4 or they are fuct

[BobbyClarkeFan16]

1 hour ago, OccamsRazor said:

 

 

all i am going to say is this must be Danny's masterstroke brush on this rebuild he can not afford to botch this or it will be his death knell

 

for no reason of pointing blame WHY at anyone just the fact that it did

 

Patrick

O'Brien 

Rubstov

Frost it's looking 

 

has really set this club back and i have seen many claim that Bonk is already a miss not getting into that here 

 

they can't afford anymore Laberges either if they can't hit on theses 2nds then hell they might as well as start using them for assets in trades then

 

just DON'T give them away like Holmgren did

 

for clubs that can draft they can turn them into assets so they have value

 

6 picks i would love to see them use them all if they could

 

if they do they MUST hit on at least 4 or they are fuct

 

I can't blame the Flyers for selecting Patrick, Rubtsov and Frost. They were picked where they were expected to be chosen. That's the reality of it. O'Brien was definitely a reach. 

 

Once again, everything comes down to scouting and development. Patrick was consensus one or two, depending on which scout one talked to. And I'm not buying Bobby Clarke's ******** that Hextall ignored the scouts and selected Patrick. They were all in consensus. This was Clarke's way of throwing Ron under the bus. There were other things Hextall definitely did (Wade Allison and Patrick Laberge selected over guys like Alex Debrincat and Samuel Girard or Filip Hronek because Hextall wanted "hockey players" and not goal scorers or defensemen because the pipeline was full), but Patrick was a consensus top two pick. 

 

As long as they don't think they're the smartest team in the room, they should be on with who they select 

 

I harp on development a lot, but that's the key to everything. The fact that Briere and Macauley understand that is a good thing. Brent Flahr also has a good track record of development from his days in Minnesota, so he understands that. Even the head coach understands the importance of development, so I think it's starting to get traction. 

 

Am I convinced that Laperriere is the right guy for development? No ****** chance. The Flyers desperately need a head coach that understands player development. The good news though is that the assistants in Lehigh Valley certainly understand special teams (the power play is 7th, but the PK of middle of the pack tied for 14th). So something is being done properly there. 

 

I'm going to say this about Oliver Bonk. The man is a good defenseman. He knows what he's good at and he doesn't try to do anything out of the norm. He plays within his capabilities and playing in London, he knows that making the safe okay will always be the right play. He's going to be a fine top four defenseman. He's a right handed Devon Toews. I don't give a **** what anyone says, Devon Toews is a fine defenseman. 

Edited December 28, 2024 by BobbyClarkeFan16

[flyercanuck]

On 12/27/2024 at 9:24 AM, RonJeremy said:

If you have no centers and tons of right wingers and it’s your turn in the draft and you rate the center at 90 out of 100, and the right wing is rated at 92 out of 100, your gonna pick a player you don’t need over a slight ratings difference? It’s not so cut and dry. If the ratings difference is significant, then you go best player available.

 

If it's a centre or a defenceman and the winger is rated a hair better, sure I'll take the more important position. This is more of a "we need a player at this poisition so we're taking the "6" instead of the "8 or 9"  cause we have that.

[flyercanuck]

3 hours ago, BobbyClarkeFan16 said:

Don't kid yourself. This is a really good draft. It's deep this year. Lots of centers and left wingers, two areas the Flyers are severely lacking.

 

Maybe it's a good draft. Maybe it's a great draft. It's not the 2003 draft. 

[FD19372]

4 minutes ago, flyercanuck said:

 

If it's a centre or a defenceman and the winger is rated a hair better, sure I'll take the more important position. This is more of a "we need a player at this poisition so we're taking the "6" instead of the "8 or 9"  cause we have that.

Unless the scouts of this team, which I continue to strongly question along with a ton of other things about this organization, find a defenseman that absolutely blows them away..on the level of a Makar or Hughes, I'm flat out drafting a center as my first pick in the 2025 draft. Hopefully, that center will be the first pick in the draft, James Hagens. I know we have Luchanko. I don't care. I want a 1st line center that will be a very very good to great player, for 10 years or more.

[BobbyClarkeFan16]

15 minutes ago, FD19372 said:

Unless the scouts of this team, which I continue to strongly question along with a ton of other things about this organization, find a defenseman that absolutely blows them away..on the level of a Makar or Hughes, I'm flat out drafting a center as my first pick in the 2025 draft. Hopefully, that center will be the first pick in the draft, James Hagens. I know we have Luchanko. I don't care. I want a 1st line center that will be a very very good to great player, for 10 years or more.

If the Flyers are selecting where they currently are (11th) then one of Frondell, Desnoyers or Ryabkin should be available. I'm iffy on Frondell because of injury history, but one of the other two would be perfectly fine. Desnoyers would be the preference because of his size, but nothing wrong with Ryabkin either (who's just having a bad year, but that's more on getting jerked around in Russia and apparently he's headed for the USHL).

[RonJeremy]

35 minutes ago, BobbyClarkeFan16 said:

If the Flyers are selecting where they currently are (11th) then one of Frondell, Desnoyers or Ryabkin should be available. I'm iffy on Frondell because of injury history, but one of the other two would be perfectly fine. Desnoyers would be the preference because of his size, but nothing wrong with Ryabkin either (who's just having a bad year, but that's more on getting jerked around in Russia and apparently he's headed for the USHL).

If we can get the center with our pick and then package the two extra first rounders and move up for one higher pick and get a dman. Or if there is an absolute cant miss center ,do we trade three first rounders to move up to the top 5. We have options,  but the lower we finish the better our options are.

[radoran]

7 hours ago, BobbyClarkeFan16 said:

Lots of centers and left wingers, two areas the Flyers are severely lacking.

 

True, but they do have $20M committed to (right) wingers for next year PLUS Michkov with Forester RFA and Tuomalaa. And of that's the same for the year after that with Brink RFA.

 

Point being, they need to deal from strength on the right side AND draft C/LW.

 

4 hours ago, BobbyClarkeFan16 said:

I can't blame the Flyers for selecting Patrick, Rubtsov and Frost. They were picked where they were expected to be chosen. That's the reality of it. O'Brien was definitely a reach. 

 

 

There's no one taken anywhere near Rubustov that would be "better" at this point. One can make a case for Miller over O'Brien but does that move any needles??

 

They already have their Frost replacement (from the same draft) in Poehling.

There's an entire cottage industry hindsighting Makar, who wasn't even the first D taken.

 

They need to leverage the two low firsts into something more useful.

 

[BobbyClarkeFan16]

1 hour ago, radoran said:

 

True, but they do have $20M committed to (right) wingers for next year PLUS Michkov with Forester RFA and Tuomalaa. And of that's the same for the year after that with Brink RFA.

 

Point being, they need to deal from strength on the right side AND draft C/LW.

 

 

There's no one taken anywhere near Rubustov that would be "better" at this point. One can make a case for Miller over O'Brien but does that move any needles??

 

They already have their Frost replacement (from the same draft) in Poehling.

There's an entire cottage industry hindsighting Makar, who wasn't even the first D taken.

 

They need to leverage the two low firsts into something more useful.

 

I didn't think they're smart enough to deal Tippett because ARGH FORECHECKING and GRRRRRRR SIIIIIIZE. They definitely won't deal Konecny, so Foerster, Brink and Tuomaala it will be.

Edited December 29, 2024 by BobbyClarkeFan16

[radoran]

4 minutes ago, BobbyClarkeFan16 said:

smart enough to deal Tippett

 

Deal "what they got for Giroux"?

 

Like, in a package with Laughton?

 

[BobbyClarkeFan16]

36 minutes ago, radoran said:

 

Deal "what they got for Giroux"?

 

Like, in a package with Laughton?

 

Absolutely. If they can get something better, I'm 100% for it. Let someone else be enticed by the skill set Tippett has while trying to figure out the lack of toolbox and what to do about that. They can have Laughton's toolbox but no tools skill set as well. It's time to move on. I'm done with it. Let someone else be enamored by what they bring. I want real talent with real IQ. 

Edited December 29, 2024 by BobbyClarkeFan16