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Great Analysis Of Cap


Guest idahophilly
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Very interesting...

"For instance, although Capgeek.com lists Brayden Schenn's cap hit as $3.11 million, his cap hit will drop (even without a bonus cushion in the CBA) to $1.75 million after the first game of the 2012-13 season. This is due to the unusual structure of Schenn's entry-level contract, originally signed with the Los Angeles Kings."

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I like a lot of Meltzer's analysis. Let me dig a little deeper here:

Assuming Carle signs for "just under $5" - let's say he basically replaces Pronger's salary on the team and LTIR is a wash. Assuming Pronger can't play.

The Flyers have basically 10 forward spaces signed - including, groan, Shelley - and can fill the other two with Harry Z/Wellwood and Rinaldo/Sesito for, let's say $1.75M combined? They could get by with less with just Wellwood and Rinaldo, but let's build in a tiny cushion (and assume Shelley will be in the press box so they need to have a guy up to actually play...)

On D, there are six guys signed (including Carle) with Lilja (35+, we're stuck with him as the 7th). If you include, say, $1.25M for Gus/MAB/etc. you're filled out.

Goalie is as goalie does.

My calculations have them at an in-season cap figure of: $66.632M (including Pronger) with $7.28M in space after LTIR is calculated for Pronger (assuming Pronger goes directly from in-season exemption to LTIR). We've already included Carle's $4.92M.

Needing, essentially, to re-sign Voracek. How does 5Y/$20M sound to Jake do you think? This could also set a nice bar for Simmonds after next year (Simmonds possibly lower pending production and development).

Now I have $3.28M to spend with what could be the full roster signed.

Does Jagr take $2.5M to come back? Can you get a solid, serviceable Talbot-type for another $1.75M?

Hey, Homer - RUSTY FEDOTENKO IS UFA! :-)

My Obvious Moves (if needed):

1) Cut Shelley (this has been my #1 Most Obvious Move since he was signed, however)

2) Trade Bob and sign a backup at $1M less.

This should free up another $1.5M - at least - giving us $4.78M to go. The numbers don't substantially change because we've factored in using multiple AHLers instead of Shelley over the course of the season anyway.

And also provide ALMOST enough space if, in fact, Pronger makes a return.

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@Podein25

I think this year he had to play 1 game in the AHL for the cap hit to be lowered...that was one of the reasons he was with the Phantoms to start the year. I can't figure out why his cap hit would drop again this year after 1 game. Talk about cap circumvention...wow.

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The link in the article explains it.

He had clauses added to the SPC that if he played 25+ minutes in 82 games he got extra money in Y1 and Y2. Essentially, if he came in and was Crosby/Ovechkin, he would get extra cash. Apparently this is an "average" because the Flyers, according to Meltzer, want to make sure this doesn't happen by making sure he doesn't play 82 games in a season.

Third year apparently has something about being a scoring leader and winning a major award.

In any event. his cap hit looks to "really" be $1.75M - what Simmonds is making.

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I think this year he had to play 1 game in the AHL for the cap hit to be lowered...that was one of the reasons he was with the Phantoms to start the year. I can't figure out why his cap hit would drop again this year after 1 game. Talk about cap circumvention...wow.

well, it's because the big cap hit was factored to include a bonus that he would no long be elligble to get. once the bonuses are taken away, his actual salary was the much smaller standardized number. so, no circumvention, just jobbing schenn out of a chance at the big bonus.

also, up until last season, teams had a bonus cushion, where they didn't have to factor bonuses in to their at-the-moment cap figure. so, had he shown up a year earlier, schenn's cap hit would have been all of $900k. last season there was no bonus cushion, so the bonuses counted at their theoretical maximum payout. i would assume the bonus cushion will return next season, so it probably won't be an issue anymore, anyway. my understanding was that the cushion was removed last season because the CBA was expiring and there would be no mechanism to handle cap overages when things were tallied up after the season(previously, any overages were counted against the team's cap number for the next season). that mechanism should be in place again going forward, so.....

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well, it's because the big cap hit was factored to include a bonus that he would no long be elligble to get. once the bonuses are taken away, his actual salary was the much smaller standardized number. so, no circumvention, just jobbing schenn out of a chance at the big bonus.

also, up until last season, teams had a bonus cushion, where they didn't have to factor bonuses in to their at-the-moment cap figure. so, had he shown up a year earlier, schenn's cap hit would have been all of $900k. last season there was no bonus cushion, so the bonuses counted at their theoretical maximum payout. i would assume the bonus cushion will return next season, so it probably won't be an issue anymore, anyway. my understanding was that the cushion was removed last season because the CBA was expiring and there would be no mechanism to handle cap overages when things were tallied up after the season(previously, any overages were counted against the team's cap number for the next season). that mechanism should be in place again going forward, so.....

Schenn would have needed to break onto the scene like few other players to hit the 25 minutes/game level as a rookie. Couturier for all his "plays even strength, power play and penalty kill" reputation hit 14 minutes/game.

Giroux had 21. The top forward in the league for TOI - Kovalchuk - had 24.

11 players had 25+ - all defensemen with tops in the league 26:53 (Campbell).

From what Meltzer says, the third season requirements are leading the league in categories or winning a major individual trophy.

I'm sure there was a rationale for all this (his base salary is in line with another Top 10 pick from the same team Simmonds). Putting that much control over your bonus in the hands of a team that only has to demote you to the AHL or play you 24:59 (as if) is silly, much less figuring you're going to play all 82 games without injury or "maintenance."

99 players in the whole league played 82 (or more) games in the regular season..

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Anyone catch the suggestion at the bottom of the article alluding to Timonen starting the year on LTIR?

Back surgery this summer??

it was pretty obvious that Kimmo was having some real problems by the end.

Wouldn't surprise me to see a bunch of injuries come up. Probably a lot of "evaluation" going on.

IMO, any extra time off Kimmo's contract pretty much allows for more space for AHL callups, etc.

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Carle signs for "just under $5" - let's say he basically replaces Pronger's salary

I can't even believe that Carle would ever make as much as Pronger...

based on what? making up for crap defense with some decent at best offensive play? I'm sorry but having decent skating ability to bring the puck up the ice and contribute every now and again with a goal doesn't mean a whole lot when you're garbage on D. play your own position STRONG first, then you can go ahead and play O.

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I can't even believe that Carle would ever make as much as Pronger...

based on what? making up for crap defense with some decent at best offensive play? I'm sorry but having decent skating ability to bring the puck up the ice and contribute every now and again with a goal doesn't mean a whole lot when you're garbage on D. play your own position STRONG first, then you can go ahead and play O.

Pronger would be "making" $7.2M next season. His cap hit is $4.9M due to the shenanigans which will keep him a $4.9M cap hit for the next five seasons.

I didn't put the "just under $5M" number on Carle - Meltzer did. In that respect, Carle is "making Pronger money" without the $15.2M Pronger already has in the bank from the first two seasons of the contract.

I, personally, would not re-sign Carle but I, personally, am not Paul Holmgren.

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Pronger would be "making" $7.2M next season. His cap hit is $4.9M due to the shenanigans which will keep him a $4.9M cap hit for the next five seasons.

I didn't put the "just under $5M" number on Carle - Meltzer did. In that respect, Carle is "making Pronger money" without the $15.2M Pronger already has in the bank from the first two seasons of the contract.

I, personally, would not re-sign Carle but I, personally, am not Paul Holmgren.

I agree would rather use the money on a defenseman that can ACTUALLY help...5+ mill for 35-40 point blueliner is WAY OVER PAYING...

....i wish him well but REALLY want someone to swoop in and sign him to some crazy deal so they don't have to bother with him.

I know some like him but i don't think he can help with their problems which was apparent during the playoffs.

Just tired of seing him get out muscled on every play it seems.

With out Pronger he is exposed.

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