Blog - Internet Our 2012-13 Backup Backstop | Who's It Gonna Be?

[terp]

well, i don't know. 3.02/.899sv% and some serious focus questions last season, not sure that bob showed himself to be king of any hill. boucher's numbers were worse, but he played behind a WAY worse team than bob. you know what you are going to get with boucher: not many embarassing softies, but a steady stream of "wish he was better". which is, imo, the definition of a backup goalie. else, he would be a starter. same with biron. he isn't great, but doesn't have OMGUSUK moments often. not a difference maker, but steady average.

what worries me is that bob did have a bunch of those OMG moments last season. he really seemed to struggle with focus after extended bench time, and his technique regressed, if anything. making saves on plays during drills in practice is a very different animal from making saves in a live fire environment, and some goalies need game time to get and keep themselves sharp. bob strikes me as that kind of goalie. has showed he is that kind of goalie. maybe he can tighten that up and become a reliable off-the-bench backup over the next several years...but why hope for that eventually when you could just go out and get it now?

names, well... biron is UFA this summer, made $875k with NYR, so he's an option. boucher is under contract for another season in carolina for $950k, obviously you aren't going to spend big assets to get him, and really i wouldn't think carolina is motivated to move him for a 5th round pick or anything...don't know of any guy they have waiting in the wings. curtis sandford is UFA, and had a pretty ok season all things considered in columbus, and would be cheap. montoya in NYI is UFA. macdonald in detroit is cheap. i'd say the most interesting two are clemmensen and harding, both are UFA and both have shown themselves very comfortable with spot starts and relief appearances. i'd probably look most closely at those two. i have to think harding is going to want a shot at a starting job, so that might make negotiations a little rough, given the bryzgalov thing. i'd be pretty ok with clemmensen.

i mean, remember, the job is to start in 20-25 games, and to be available mid-game if something happens to the starter. you don't need a world beater, you just want a guy who is going to give a solid effort you can win in front of on short notice. you don't look at your backup to win games *for* you, you just don't want him to lose games for you. bob was unsteady last season, and that is a common thing for a young goalie. if you are trying to develop your starter of the future, you are willing to deal with that instability. if you have no intention of that guy being the man in the next couple years, though, why put up with a kid's growing pains? why not go with a stable and developed adult who, while posessing a lower potential ceiling overall, has a professional understanding and acceptance of what his role is and has the appropriate mindset/disposition to do it?

as for bob's value....i don't know. i think after his rookie year, there were a lot of people around the league who saw him and went, "hey, the kid could be great, did you see him for the first, like, 3/4ths of the season? we can work with that, he burned out, but hey, he'll grow into it," and would have valued him relatively high. with last season, though, i have to think the common view is, "ah, one of those, flashy entrance, and then flame out. we've seen that before, we see that every few years. pass." i could be wrong, but i think he's gone from being a worthwhile bet to a longshot really only interesting to teams in a bind. don't get me wrong, there are teams in a bind, i can see tampa sending something back for him. it's just that this time last season, they maybe would have sent a 2nd round pick for him, today we're talking about a 5th.

edit: and i have to disagree with the "we don't lose out by hanging on to him because goalies don't develop linearly" thing. you are, of course, correct, a lot of goalies pop their heads up at age 30 and are suddenly effective..but they were worthless prior to that. smith was waived by tampa, AND cleared re-entry waivers...no one in the league would take him for free with half the cap hit. thomas's rights went un-owned for 2 years before he signed with boston in 05. age 29-31 no one wanted to even add him to the deeps of their depth charts.

a ton of goalies make appearances in the league every year, a lot of them have exciting debuts. very few of them pan out. people are very used to seeing goalies who look great for a few months amount to nothing at all, and the value bob established out of the gate will fade fast. he was unknown before he showed up in the flyers' camp, and he is sliding back into unknown. another season like he had last, and it becomes a question if anyone signs him at all next summer, or he just heads back to europe like so many others have. where oh where is karri ramo, once one of the most highly touted goaltending prospects in the world? two unimpressive seasons in north america and he is now in the KHL.

the other thing we have to lose are the occasional starts that bob gets, and the iffy play he brings, should he respond to inconsistent ice time like he did last season. that counts, too.

If you ask around this board, i think you'll find several who recall many OMGUSUK moments from Boucher and especially Biron, who let in some catastrophic softies. Agree about Harding, who may be this year's backup who someone really thinks can carry the load. So, long story short, there is Clemmensen? He'll probably cost almost as much as Bob and as you point out, we might get a 5th in return for Bob, if Clemmensen is down for backing up Bryzgalov. If people in the Flyers org have even a slightly more rosy view of Bob's potential than you, one can imagine why the Flyers would not be in a rush to get this done.

[Vanflyer]

@-

The problem with Bobs is I don't think you get much for him. His contract is a bit too steep for a backup of his limited body of work in the NHL and COMPLETELY unrealistic for a send down assignment to the AHL (where he gets paid a measely 75K), not to mention that he is no longer waiver exempt.

While I do think that more work is better for bob than less (and truthfully the Flyers did him a complete disservice by structuring his two-way contract the way they did). However, I don't think he is a flop at a back-up at all. I do think he played poorly in February and March. Moreso in February where he was given the opportunity to start more frequently (and Bryz was frankly playing just as bad in February). Some of that February play has to be attributed to injuries and the play in front of both goalies. It did not settle down until Grossman / Kubina were brought in- which subsequently Bryz went on his strong play in March.

Truthfully, I look at it this way between Bryz and Bobs. I call it the story of thirds and specifically two-thrids and one-thirds.

I am going to splice some numbers here and they are nothing more or less than I have been preaching for some time. The problem here collectively seems to be that people have very short term memories.

1) Bryz / Bobs from beginning of season until end of January:

So, at this point, Bryz has played nearly two thirds of his minutes on the year and Bobs has played precisely two thirds of his minutes on the year. We can argue lesser teams and all that stuff, but on a pure numbers basis, Bobs was markedly outplaying Bryzgalov. In fact, if you through out March of Bobs rookie season, he was doing EXACTLY what he had done from October to January this past year of what he did from October to February of his rookie year.

Bryz at this point was 30th or more in GAA and Save Pctg. The fact that there was a .621 win pctg had really not allot to do with him overall (but he did have a nice streak in late Feb - Dec).

2) Byrz / Bobs from February to the end of the season:

This of course illustrates the stellar turnaround by Bryz and the detorioration of Bobs. These two points are what I have been stating for a while. Yet, I have always said that the team was mired (once again) with poor play in February. And by team I mean the goalies all the way on out. This caused me to do a third look at the pie.

3) Bryz / Bobs from beginning of season through end of February:

This may be one of the most compelling vantage points of view I can present, yet it is not compelling without looking at the other two pieces. Here are the reasons:

1) It supports my theory that the entire team was playing like crap in February.

2) Bryz's season ending numbers are mostly attributed to his March and April.

3) Bobs season ending numbers are mostly attributed to his February (his season ending numbers are nearly identical to his point in season number by end of Febrauary, which are starkly different than his point in season numbers at the end of January).

My closure is this. It seems silly to shop for a vet backup at this point. We still do not know what we have in Bryz. He has shown sporadic good play, but mostly sub-par play overall. We also don't know what we have in Bobs. He has shown sporadic poor play- and consistently towards the end of the season at that, but mostly good play overall.

I was thinking that Bobs would have been better served getting more reps / games in the AHL last season. Given the status of the Phantoms, I am not so sure. They turned it around in the last third of the season, but prior to.....sucked (for many reasons including parent club attrition).

For me, Bobs stays. I like his personality, work ethic, and natural athletic ability. Blemishes aside, he is a blue collar guy that is willing to work on his imperfections. I give him 1/3 of the games, again and more if Bryz falls early. I feel more confident in teaching a new dog old tricks than and old dog new tricks. Meaning Bobs imperfections are correctable. Bryz (half between the ears and half between the pipes), not so much.

[Vanflyer]

@noodl-

The problem with Bobs is I don't think you get much for him. His contract is a bit too steep for a backup of his limited body of work in the NHL and COMPLETELY unrealistic for a send down assignment to the AHL (where he gets paid a measely 75K), not to mention that he is no longer waiver exempt.

While I do think that more work is better for bob than less (and truthfully the Flyers did him a complete disservice by structuring his two-way contract the way they did). However, I don't think he is a flop at a back-up at all. I do think he played poorly in February and March. Moreso in February where he was given the opportunity to start more frequently (and Bryz was frankly playing just as bad in February). Some of that February play has to be attributed to injuries and the play in front of both goalies. It did not settle down until Grossman / Kubina were brought in- which subsequently Bryz went on his strong play in March.

Truthfully, I look at it this way between Bryz and Bobs. I call it the story of thirds and specifically two-thrids and one-thirds.

I am going to splice some numbers here and they are nothing more or less than I have been preaching for some time. The problem here collectively seems to be that people have very short term memories.

1) Bryz / Bobs from beginning of season until end of January:

So, at this point, Bryz has played nearly two thirds of his minutes on the year and Bobs has played precisely two thirds of his minutes on the year. We can argue lesser teams and all that stuff, but on a pure numbers basis, Bobs was markedly outplaying Bryzgalov. In fact, if you through out March of Bobs rookie season, he was doing EXACTLY what he had done from October to January this past year of what he did from October to February of his rookie year.

Bryz at this point was 30th or more in GAA and Save Pctg. The fact that there was a .621 win pctg had really not allot to do with him overall (but he did have a nice streak in late Feb - Dec).

2) Byrz / Bobs from February to the end of the season:

This of course illustrates the stellar turnaround by Bryz and the detorioration of Bobs. These two points are what I have been stating for a while. Yet, I have always said that the team was mired (once again) with poor play in February. And by team I mean the goalies all the way on out. This caused me to do a third look at the pie.

3) Bryz / Bobs from beginning of season through end of February:

This may be one of the most compelling vantage points of view I can present, yet it is not compelling without looking at the other two pieces. Here are the reasons:

1) It supports my theory that the entire team was playing like crap in February.

2) Bryz's season ending numbers are mostly attributed to his March and April.

3) Bobs season ending numbers are mostly attributed to his February (his season ending numbers are nearly identical to his point in season number by end of Febrauary, which are starkly different than his point in season numbers at the end of January).

My closure is this. It seems silly to shop for a vet backup at this point. We still do not know what we have in Bryz. He has shown sporadic good play, but mostly sub-par play overall. We also don't know what we have in Bobs. He has shown sporadic poor play- and consistently towards the end of the season at that, but mostly good play overall.

I was thinking that Bobs would have been better served getting more reps / games in the AHL last season. Given the status of the Phantoms, I am not so sure. They turned it around in the last third of the season, but prior to.....sucked (for many reasons including parent club attrition).

For me, Bobs stays. I like his personality, work ethic, and natural athletic ability. Blemishes aside, he is a blue collar guy that is willing to work on his imperfections. I give him 1/3 of the games, again and more if Bryz falls early. I feel more confident in teaching a new dog old tricks than and old dog new tricks. Meaning Bobs imperfections are correctable. Bryz (half between the ears and half between the pipes), not so much.

Edited June 6, 2012 by Vanflyer

[Vanflyer]

@-

But isn't said contract "null and void" if said player decides to retire??

What is that Russian from Columbus that did it? Seems like that was post 2008? We of course know the Radulov story.

[mojo1917]

how about bryz for back up once he falters early , give him enough starts,ie rope to hang himself, then let Bobs play, the team has played better in front of him, likes him better, he's the same age as most of the core guys, has better athletic ability and when i remember how uncompetitive Bryz looked at points during the season when he should have been on his A game, vs the Rangers especially i get to thinking he will never fight through screens or improve in the dog piles in front of the net.

[canoli]

if you are trying to develop your starter of the future, you are willing to deal with that instability. if you have no intention of that guy being the man in the next couple years, though, why put up with a kid's growing pains?

and there it is - the Flyers' dilemma in a nutshell. I don't see any point to holding onto Bob now. He's the definition of a Lose:Lose for the Flyers. He brings nothing to the team now that can't be had for less $$. His value was his potential, based on the excitement generated by his first 4 months in the NHL when he went something like 21-6. That potential was tarnished in the POs last year and in the preceding 2 months. But I bet when FA opened Bob's value was still high. Everybody saw the 3-ring goalie circus that Lavy implemented...pro scouts and GMs certainly factored that in when they looked at Bob.

but then the Flyers did what the Flyers do...and so now?

Now it's hard to imagine any GM getting excited at the thought of landing Bobrovsky.

We can debate whether the Flyers ruined his value by mismanaging him (they did) or whether Bob simply isn't good enough to deserve better support. The result is the same: he's useless as a backup and the Flyers need a good backup, considering who their #1 is. I realize using one season means a small sample for a young goalie but let's face it, it was an awfully bad year for Bob. Forget the numbers for a second and remember how he played...the majority of minutes were ugly...soft goals (the WC comes to mind immediately), sometimes multiple softies in 1 game [alà Bryz-aster], tentative puck-handling, difficulty tracking the puck...on and on...

What a shame. Maybe he would've fizzled out regardless but it sure would've been nice to know if we had the next Pelle on our hands...

Oh well, another costly goaltending mistake by the Flyers....what else is new?

[canoli]

Actually we did have "the next Pelle on our hands" but in Bob's case the only thing that died was his career in Philly. That's certainly better for Bob but for the Flyers the results are the same: we've got no one who's well-suited to back up Bryzgalov.

[mojo1917]

@canoli

the next pelle or the next semyon varlarmov....

Like Varlarmov i think Bobs has a boat load of talent and his work ethic is reportedly impeccable, so i think Bobs has a bigger upside than Varlamov due to his focus....

this situation with Bryzgalov makes my stomach hurt when i think about it.

[aziz]

If people in the Flyers org have even a slightly more rosy view of Bob's potential than you

what purpose could his "potential" possibly serve the flyers, at this point? they intend to play him 20-25 games next season, and then his contract is up. think he's gonna resign for more sitting on the bench? and what if he does? there'll still be 7 years of bryzgalov left, at what point are the flyers going to be in a position to leverage bob's "potential"? bob will be 31 by the time bryzgalov is done. even if bryzgalov were relagated to backup duties for the last couple years of his deal, you think bob is going to sit around getting 25 starts per season for the next 6 years? he'll be eligible for UFA status in 4 years. what's the point of developing him?

this isn't about getting anything for him. it's about using the roster spot of the backup goaltender to best effect, insofar as there is a starter firmly in place. it is stupid to use it for development and/or auditioning when the starting job has been unquestionably filled longterm.

[radoran]

I'm thinking Marty Biron makes a lot of sense. There will certainly be no hue and cry to put the backup in around here :-)

Another Ranger UFA I'd go after is Fedotenko.

[aziz]

The problem with Bobs is I don't think you get much for him.

i don't see why that's a problem. you don't have to get much for him. imo, the team is better off with a more experienced body as the #2, so moving bobrovsky is better for the team, regardless of any return.

and truthfully the Flyers did him a complete disservice by structuring his two-way contract the way they did

i'm not sure what you mean, what did they do?

This may be one of the most compelling vantage points of view I can present, yet it is not compelling without looking at the other two pieces. Here are the reasons:

1) It supports my theory that the entire team was playing like crap in February.

2) Bryz's season ending numbers are mostly attributed to his March and April.

3) Bobs season ending numbers are mostly attributed to his February (his season ending numbers are nearly identical to his point in season number by end of Febrauary, which are starkly different than his point in season numbers at the end of January).

well done putting all of that together. it is interesting to see, i agree. but numbers aside, throughout the season, i was distinctly uncomfortable with bob in net. it was too routine for pucks to bounce off the top of his glove, for pucks to trickle through his 5-hole, for his angles to be warped beyond recognition. whether or not those problems were reflected by his numbers at any given point, it looked to me like bob struggled mightily with his game all season long. struggled in ways that looked tpyical of a goalie having a very tough time maintaining game-ready focus.

i've seen that in young goalies in two situations:

1)not enough game time. the rhthym of a game is what keeps some guys ready for..the game. the more they play, the better they play, and if they sit for a length of time, they lose their edge....or

2)goalies who really don't have what it takes to be consistently effective NHL goalies. like i said in one of my posts yesterday, there are many many many goalies who step onto the NHL stage and briefly blow people away...but can't keep it together, can't turn that initial impression into longterm success. many many many. many many. many. i'm debating making a list, but seriously, it would be too long to even be worth the time. a heavily heavily edited version would be hedberg, mason (steve), toskala, raycroft, theodore, lalime, emery, aebischer, just to name a few of the more memorable ones.

whichever of the above 2 cases bob falls into...doesn't really matter. if it is the first, well, that isn't going to change. he isn't going to get 50 starts in philly. he is going to get 25, and will wait weeks between each one. if it is the second, well, that is common and i don't think anyone would be suprised. in either case, there is nothing to gain be keeping the kid as bryzgalov's backup. imo.

We still do not know what we have in Bryz. He has shown sporadic good play, but mostly sub-par play overall.

absolutely agree, no question at all. problem is: so what? we know one thing we have in bryzgalov, and that is 8 years left on a movement restricted contract that pays an average of $5.667mil per year. beyond that, we don't need to know anything else. he is the starter. the goaltending situation will be built and handled to best accomodate him and make him as effective as possible.

now, if he gets bought out (and i've recently denounced my atheism in order to pray for this to happen), i change my tune. THEN it makes total sense to hold onto bob and see if we can discover what his deal is. give him 60 starts and a vet tutor to take the other 22 and see how it goes. so long as bryzgalov is a flyer, though, i don't see the upside.

[aziz]

But isn't said contract "null and void" if said player decides to retire??

there is no such thing as "retire" mid-SPC. if a player has a valid contract with a team, he has a valid contract with a team. if he chooses to not play, he is suspended by the team, but the contract remains.

What is that Russian from Columbus that did it? Seems like that was post 2008? We of course know the Radulov story.

russian from columbus....not sure who you mean. ah, wait, filatov, right? yeah.....reading about that now...and i got nothing. says he was loaned from columbus to a KHL team, and then the sentors did the same thing with him 3 years later. loaned him in the same way a team would loan a player to an AHL team. i didn't realize that was allowed. so...that definitely changes things, good catch. i'm not sure of the specifics, but it does look like it is at least possible.

[aziz]

how about bryz for back up once he falters early , give him enough starts,ie rope to hang himself, then let Bobs play,

would management allow it? that's the key question, and i kind of doubt they'd allow their $51mil investment sit on the bench night after night.

[aziz]

@canoli

well, exactly. people act like the flyers are still car shopping, wanting them to take test drives in possibilities...when they already have a HUGE monthly payment on a brand new (to them) Zil-157.

[aziz]

I'm thinking Marty Biron makes a lot of sense. There will certainly be no hue and cry to put the backup in around here :-)

lol, yup, there is that upside

[terp]

it's about using the roster spot of the backup goaltender to best effect

Agree with this and while I don't know for sure what will happen, I think there is a good chance that the Flyers decide that another year of Bob as backup is the best use of resources. As I wrote in an earlier post, there are not a lot of obvious upgrades that cost the same or less. Also, don't get too caught up in my use of the word "potential". By this I mean that it is reasonable to think Bob can do just fine starting 25 games or so and serving as an insurance policy if Bryzgalov is injured for a long stretch.

[Lindbergh31]

Agree with this and while I don't know for sure what will happen, I think there is a good chance that the Flyers decide that another year of Bob as backup is the best use of resources. As I wrote in an earlier post, there are not a lot of obvious upgrades that cost the same or less. Also, don't get too caught up in my use of the word "potential". By this I mean that it is reasonable to think Bob can do just fine starting 25 games or so and serving as an insurance policy if Bryzgalov is injured for a long stretch.

I wouldn't mind seeing Holmgren signing Harding as a backup and trade Bob. Harding is use to being a backup considering he has been a backup to Backstrom in Minnesota for the last 3 years. Since Bryzgalov is signed for another 8 years, Silent Bob will never get a chance to develop here unless the Flyers are prepared to sit Bryzgalov on the bench for 30 to 35 games so Bob can play.

[terp]

I wouldn't mind seeing Holmgren signing Harding as a backup and trade Bob.

Some doubt that Harding would sign to be a backup in a situation where his playing time would be limited to 20-25 games.

[radoran]

Some doubt that Harding would sign to be a backup in a situation where his playing time would be limited to 20-25 games.

Harding will take a starting job if one is available, IMO potentially for less than he would as a backup.

That said, if a starting job isn't available, there are worse places than Philadelphia to be the backup.

God help him if he starts :-)

[terp]

Harding will take a starting job if one is available, IMO potentially for less than he would as a backup.

That said, if a starting job isn't available, there are worse places than Philadelphia to be the backup.

God help him if he starts :-)

I haven't seen him enough to know but I have to wonder how a goaltender will fare in a more conventional situation upon leaving a defense first team like the Wild. They couldn't score but they were very good at keeping the puck out of their own net; are Harding's numbers merely a reflection of that or can he really play? I kind of doubt he's likely to come to Philly. He played 34 games last season and had a .917 SV%. He's worth $2MM anyway and I kind of doubt the Flyers will pay that to bring in a veteran guy with any aspirations of being a starter.

[Howie58]

I didn't see any name above that I thought made more sense than bringing back Bob for another season. In particular, I think penciling in Hovinen, who has no North American experience, is a horrible idea.

I would not assume the Flyers have decided to move Bob. They may or may not have "gone after" Vokoun. If they did, they thought Vokoun made sense but that doesn't mean that they think a lot of other guys out there are a better alternative to Bob. I'm not even sure Vokoun would be a better alternative, not because I don't think he can play (he can) or because I don't like his willingness to speak his mind (I do). I'm just not sure our head case starter could deal with being on the same roster as Vokoun.

Greetings:

I like your reasoning. My gut says they go with a bargain type like Johnson per yesterday's article. Bobo gets traded as part of a package--I could JVR bundled with him.

Best,

Howie

[aziz]

I haven't seen him enough to know but I have to wonder how a goaltender will fare in a more conventional situation upon leaving a defense first team like the Wild. They couldn't score but they were very good at keeping the puck out of their own net; are Harding's numbers merely a reflection of that or can he really play?

i think harding and backstrom were very good at keeping the puck out of their own net. personally, i think the "flyers' defense sucks" thing is based on very little. while they didn't play a defense-first game like the wild did, i think the flyers had every bit as strong a defensive presence as a team like the wild....they just had offense to go with it.

i think harding would be just fine playing for the flyers. the two problems would be whether he'd accept an artificially enforced backup role, and the inevitable controversy as bryzgalov sucks again and we all start chanting for harding to start.

[terp]

and the inevitable controversy as bryzgalov sucks again and we all start chanting for harding to start.

It is kind of begging for a "goalie controversy", isn't it? So I kind of doubt they'll head in that direction. I more expect Homer to focus on keeping Bryzgalov calm and hoping he'll round into form in his second season. I'm not endorsing the approach, just forecasting.

[doom88]

Bob has plenty of trade value. He's a young goalie with a few NHL games under his belt, not unlike Schneider, Bernier, Harding at one point while behind Backstrom, a third King who I cannot recall off hand, etc etc.

Basically Bob still has value for another two years. If he's done nothing by then, it's not going to return much in trade.

[Vanflyer]

i don't see why that's a problem. you don't have to get much for him. imo, the team is better off with a more experienced body as the #2, so moving bobrovsky is better for the team, regardless of any return.

I guess for me, going and getting a veteran backup- who may fair better OR worse than Bobs doesn't make all that much sense (unless you are trying to squeeze pennies and want a 1m type of guy instead of Bobs 1.7m contract). I am in the camp of play out bobs contract instead of dumping him for nothing.

i'm not sure what you mean, what did they do?

They structured his two-way contract so that if they did send him down (which is unlikely, because he would have to clear waivers), his AHL salary is only 75K, which no matter how you slice it would be a mammoth slap in the face.

For me personally, Vokoun was the play last summer. Let him have the starters role / platoon. Snider knee jerked, etc. If they were that disheartened by believing that Bobs was not ready as a starter, then they STILL should have signed a Vokoun type to let Bobs get plenty of reps in at the AHL. Of course that would not have played out either because of the idiotic way his two-way contract was structured. Somebody was asleep at the wheel all the way around on the goalie contract spot, and I am not just referring to last year.