Jump to content

Flyers moving up in draft?


Guest Jmdodgesrt4
 Share

Recommended Posts

Only if there is a can't miss stud defenseman available ala Hatcher/Stevens/Pronger who projects to make an NHL level impact this fall. Heavy right handed shot would be nice. And I haven't done any homework on this at all, is such a player available in this year's draft?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

NHL draft trades: The price of moving up into the top ten picks

117309304_extra_large.jpg

Bruce Bennett - Getty Images

ST PAUL, MN - JUNE 25: NHL draft prospects sit in the stands wondering what the Flyers would give up to move up and draft them during the 2011 NHL Entry Draft at Xcel Energy Center on June 25, 2011 in St Paul, Minnesota. (Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images)

A lot of people have been suggesting that the Flyers should trade up into the first 10 picks of this year's draft to get one of the top defensive prospects. However, I think people are overestimating how likely that is and underestimating the cost.

Let's take a look at the draft pick trades since the lockout.

star-divide.v5e9d7f1.jpg

The first thing that jumps out at me is that it just doesn't happen very often. There have only been four trades that involved a top-10 pick, plus the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/nhl/players/54905/phil-kessel" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(190, 61, 18); text-decoration: none; font-weight: bold; ">Phil Kessel deal which included two picks that ended up being in the top ten. It would seem that teams generally just aren't all that interested in moving down.

When they do move down, they generally don't move down very far. Unless a player like Kessel or Jeff Carter is involved -- and I don't think people are suggesting the Flyers should move Claude Giroux to get a top-10 pick -- no team picking as low as the Flyers has moved up even into the top half of the first round since the lockout.

So a team trading down that far would be rare, but the few trades that have happened still give us a view of what the cost might be.

  • 2008: Maple Leafs trade pick #7, a future second-round pick, and pick #68 for pick #5
  • 2008: Predators trade pick #9 and pick #40 for pick #7
  • 2007: Sharks trade pick #13 and pick #44 for pick #9

At that top part of the draft, just moving up a couple of spots costs something like an early-second round pick. Let's look at what the Flyers would have to give up to get into the range where an early-second could get them into the top ten.

  • 2008: Kings trade pick #17 and pick #28 for pick #12
  • 2008: Sabres trade pick #13 and a future third-round pick for pick #12
  • 2009: Islanders trade pick #16, pick #77, and pick #182 for pick #12
  • 2008: Senators trade pick #18 and a future third-round pick for pick #15
  • 2010: Kings trade pick #19 and pick #59 for pick #15
  • 2006: Sharks trade pick #20 and pick #53 for pick #16
  • 2007: Wild trades pick #19 and pick #42 for pick #16

So at #20, the Flyers should expect to give up a second-round pick to move to something like 15th or 16th, another second round pick to get to the 12th or 13th range, and another second round pick to get into the top 10.

Of course, with no second-round picks in this draft, that probably isn't the route they'll take, but the point is that getting into the top ten will cost them the #20 pick and something with value comparable to three second-round picks.

Given that late-first-round picks have often been traded for two second-round picks, I suspect that even the 20th pick and next year's first rounder wouldn't be enough.

People who are thinking that the 20th pick and Sergei Bobrovsky would be an enticing package for Tampa Bay at #10 are either wildly overvaluing a goalie who is 31st out of 39 in save percentage over the last two yearsor wildly undervaluing the cost of moving up in the first round. Very few teams have traded top-ten picks away at all, and if a team was tempted, it would certainly cost more than spare parts to move all the way up from 20th.

comment.v8c9bafb.png 15 comments | Add comment | 0 recs |

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Only if there is a can't miss stud defenseman available ala Hatcher/Stevens/Pronger who projects to make an NHL level impact this fall. Heavy right handed shot would be nice. And I haven't done any homework on this at all, is such a player available in this year's draft?

i'm trying to think of *any* defensemen who made an impact the fall after he was drafted. doughty, i guess. who else?

meaning: unless i'm forgetting a bunch of guys, it really doesn't happen that 18 yearold dmen come in and make a difference. may or may not be smart to make the move, but it wouldn't be for next season's sake.

edit: ok, pronger and stevens both did, too. sorry, missed them.

Edited by noodl
Link to comment
Share on other sites

i'm trying to think of *any* defensemen who made an impact the fall after he was drafted. doughty, i guess. who else?

meaning: unless i'm forgetting a bunch of guys, it really doesn't happen that 18 yearold dmen come in and make a difference. may or may not be smart to make the move, but it wouldn't be for next season's sake.

edit: ok, pronger and stevens both did, too. sorry, missed them.

You're still talking about once- or twice- in a generation type players.

I haven't heard of anything like that in this year's draft...?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

it really doesn't happen that 18 yearold dmen come in and make a difference....

edit: ok, pronger and stevens both did, too. sorry, missed them.

Right, and if such a player were available it would take a lot more than 1 Voracek to land him.....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Since there are no players projected to be Drew Doughty in this years draft, I think Voracek would be a huge overpayment to move up. Of course that would depend how far up it would get you. But if I'm willing to trade Voracek, I think I'd dangle him AND JVR (and our 1st) to the Preds for Weber and see what happens.

There are plenty of defencemen in this draft. With the Flyers curse on drafting Dmen, I'd rather waste our 20th pick than a higher one. With Holmgrens draft record, I trust him where we stand. What I would like is to try and get a 2nd round pick and take Malcolm Subban. I think this kid is going to become a very good goalie.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

@

Pronger didn't exactly set the world on fire for a few years after his draft. He was traded after 2 seasons, which says a lot for a 2nd overall. His off ice antics weren't exactly stellar (he made Richards and Carters entire drinking career pale in comparison). It really wasn't until he was traded that he gave his head a shake and became the guy you love or hate, depending on if you're playing with or against.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

 Share

×
×
  • Create New...