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The Myth of Matt Carle's Pronger-Inflated Numbers


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OKay I think I've kicked this horse a few times but for some reason I've taken to defending a former Flyers player... I can't believe I just said that. ;) Anyway... I am posting this article as it simplifies the one I used before that was pretty statistically intensive. There are several out there, but this one breaks it down pretty simple.

http://philly.sbnation.com/philadelphia-flyers/2012/7/6/3139840/NHL-free-agency-2012-matt-carle-chris-pronger-flyers-lightning

By Geoffrey Detweiler - Associate Editor

Regardless of your opinion of the contract Tampa Bay signed with Matt Carle, we should all be honest about the facts, including how much Chris Pronger impacted Carle's numbers

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Jul 6, 2012 - With Matt Carle signing in Tampa Bay, Flyers fans have lost one of their most divisive players. Regardless of what you think about the prudence of Tampa Bay signing Carle to a six-year, $33 million deal, we should at least all be using the same set of facts to evaluate the contract.

Whether that is looking at Carle ranking in the top-20 in point production among NHL defensemen, ranking in the top-30 in time on ice, or his turnovers being less costly than other, more highly regarded defenders, it is important to get the facts straight.

Unfortunately, despite previously showing that Carle was as good, if not better, without Pronger in 2010-11, there are still those who claim that Carle is nothing without Pronger.

Let's see if this is true. Thanks to HockeyAnalysis.com, we can check the numbers.

All statistics are at 5-on-5.

Name Year TOI GF GF/20 GA GA/20 GF%

Carle/Pronger 2009-11 1688 81 0.960 55

0.652 59.6%

Carle Alone 2009-11 1163

64 1.100 44 0.757 59.3%

Pronger Alone 2009-11 445 10 0.450 13 0.584 43.5%

Carle/Pronger 2010-11 628 33 1.051 21 0.669 61.1%

Carle Alone 2010-11 795 48 1.208 29 0.730 62.3%

Pronger Alone 2010-11 119 2 0.337 5 0.842 28.6%

Key: TOI - time on ice; GF - Flyers goals scored; GF/20 - Flyers goals per 20 minutes; GA - Goals against the Flyers; GA/20 - Goals against per 20 minutes; GF% - Flyers' percentage of all goals scored

Entering this season, Chris Pronger was a Philadelphia Flyers for two years. During that time, Matt Carle played 1,688 minutes at 5-on-5 with Pronger and 1,163 minutes without Pronger.

When Pronger and Carle were together, the pair were a +26, with the Flyers registering 59.6% of all goals scored. When Carle was on the ice without Pronger, he was a +20, and the Flyers registered 59.3% of all goals scored.

Similar sample sizes with nearly identical results. The difference? There were more goals scored at both ends when Carle was on the ice without Pronger, but the Flyers went from outscoring their opposition by 0.92 goals per 60 minutes to outscoring them by 1.03 goals per 60 minutes.

What about in 2010-11, the year where Pronger missed half the season with various injuries?

The duo spent 628 minutes together and were a +12, getting 61.1% of all goals scored. When Carle played without Pronger at his side, he was a +19, getting 62.3% of all goals scored in 795 minutes.

Nearly identical sample sizes with nearly identical results, even skewing in favor of Carle without Pronger. Again, more goals were being scored at both ends when Carle was without Pronger, but the Flyers went from outscoring opponents by 1.14 goals per 60 minutes to outscoring them by 1.43 goals per 60 minutes.

It may have seem like Matt Carle needed Chris Pronger next to him, but in terms of goals scored, it did not make a difference to Matt Carle's statistics. The Flyers actually widened the gap between them and their opponents when Carle played without Pronger.

So the next time someone attempts to perpetuate the myth that Carle cannot play without Pronger, remind them that the Flyers' fared just as well, if not better, with Carle on the ice without Pronger

Edited by Polaris922
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You can bring all the facts that you want, some people are never going to be convinced. The fact is, the Flyers are going to miss Carle more than a lot of fans want to admit. I actually like Schenn (or at least his potential) but in no way will he replace what Carle provided.

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You can bring all the facts that you want, some people are never going to be convinced. The fact is, the Flyers are going to miss Carle more than a lot of fans want to admit. I actually like Schenn (or at least his potential) but in no way will he replace what Carle provided.

You're right, regardless of the stats i seen him play and was happy they let him walk for the money he got.

Now had he signed closer to what Coburn signed for then i would be ok with them resigning him. I'm happy for him he got paid time to move on.

Yes Schenn can't replace him because thy are different types of defencemen. However i believe Gus with more playing time or Bourdon can replace him.

His turnover were just hard to watch at times.

And also wasn't impressed with his offensive game sometimes either...now was he alone no but we are talking about Carle, so he lack of being able to get a shot through on net was terrible at times.

It seemed he could only get a weak wrister through...

...i forget who on the team picked on him about having the weakest shot on the team(maybe it was Hartnell).

Just i feel he is replaceable...maybe not quickly next year but in time.

Good luck in Tampa Carle except when facing the Flyers.

Edited by OccamsRazor
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His turnover were just hard to watch at times.

that and how many times i watched guys score goals in close and was close enough to do something and didn't.

i didn't hate the guy or his upsides, i just saw enough of the bad stuff to really aggravate me and didn't feel like I saw enough of the good to outweigh it.

Edited by Spinorama
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Sorry the stats chart didn't copy over right. I can't seem to fix it. Please see the link to the article if you want to see them for yourself. He summarizes them well though.

thanks for the post, you and I were discussing this in another thread and I was very interested in reading up on it because it surprised me as well. I was convinced it was all due to Pronger!

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You can bring all the facts that you want, some people are never going to be convinced. The fact is, the Flyers are going to miss Carle more than a lot of fans want to admit. I actually like Schenn (or at least his potential) but in no way will he replace what Carle provided.

No one has really touched on this but...as the cap goes up shouldn't player salaries go up, too? If it stay's at $70,000,000 (up about $7,000,000) in theory that money should be spent somewhere. Most likely, disproportionately towards the players with higher salaries. Maybe as recent as 2-3 years ago a Matt Carle wasn't worth $5.5 million but now...maybe.

My wife is like that. A 24 pack of bottled water goes for $4.99 in our grocery store. On sale, MAYBE $3.99. She remembers it costing $2.99 way back when and is insistant someone still sells it at that amount. Poor soul.

I think Suter, Weber and Carle just happen to be among the first group of players to see this "inflation" applied.

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that and how many times i watched guys score goals in close and was close enough to do something and didn't.

i didn't hate the guy or his upsides, i just saw enough of the bad stuff to really aggravate me and didn't feel like I saw enough of the good to outweigh it.

Amen i mean i know he's not known for his physical play but when he gets out muscled by Semin it is just time to go...move on buh-bye.

Like you i dodn't hate him but God his softness was unbearable at times.

Again why no way in HELL would i expect the Flyers to match that ridiculous contract.

I just feel his game can be replace in time...maybe not at first next year but would just prefer the money it would take to keep him here to got to someone else.

Like i said Bruno can't be any weaker around the crease than Matt.

Besides not very often you see a defenceman with a higher takeaway ratio verses turnover ratio...but Bruno has...something Carle can't even say.

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Shelley is on the ice but Avery decides to go after Carle instead..

Geez, even Avery hates Carle for no apparent reason. He must just have one of those faces that demands to be punched. I know people like that, there's nothing you can do about it.

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Geez, even Avery hates Carle for no apparent reason. He must just have one of those faces that demands to be punched. I know people like that, there's nothing you can do about it.

Scott Hartnell evaluation of Carle...

...can say it no better than that...now he's a rich pylon...hahaha no pun intended!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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You're right, regardless of the stats i seen him play and was happy they let him walk for the money he got.

Now had he signed closer to what Coburn signed for then i would be ok with them resigning him. I'm happy for him he got paid time to move on.

Yes Schenn can't replace him because thy are different types of defencemen. However i believe Gus with more playing time or Bourdon can replace him.

His turnover were just hard to watch at times.

And also wasn't impressed with his offensive game sometimes either...now was he alone no but we are talking about Carle, so he lack of being able to get a shot through on net was terrible at times.

It seemed he could only get a weak wrister through...

...i forget who on the team picked on him about having the weakest shot on the team(maybe it was Hartnell).

Just i feel he is replaceable...maybe not quickly next year but in time.

Good luck in Tampa Carle except when facing the Flyers.

His shot is weak, we all agree there. But his turnovers aren't as frequent or as bad as other puck carrying defensemen. That stat pretty much goes with the territory and Carle isn't as bad as others. And sure, he is replaceable. And you know what? When the Flyers get someone who can actually replace him, that guy will probably cost as much or more than what Carle got.

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I think Suter, Weber and Carle just happen to be among the first group of players to see this "inflation" applied.

Maybe, but I think it's more that Suter Parise and Carle were the beneficiaries of being in a relatively weak UFA class

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So the next time someone attempts to perpetuate the myth that Carle cannot play without Pronger, remind them that the Flyers' fared just as well, if not better, with Carle on the ice without Pronger

Myth or not, the two years he played with Pronger he was +19 and +30. The year without Pronger he was +4.

The year before Pronger arrived he was +2 in 64 games for the Flyers.

Carle can - and likely will - be as productive without Pronger offensively, but his defense is affected without a solid partner.

Flyer GAA (11-12 and before):: 2.70, 2.60, 2.68, 2.78

So the Flyers overall GAA didn't change that much over the four-year period (thus, it's not "Bryz's fault" that Carle was an average of -20 worse without Pronger).

The important thing for a "defenseman" isn't whether or not his offensive production is consistent, but whether his defensive play is.

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No one has really touched on this but...as the cap goes up shouldn't player salaries go up, too? If it stay's at $70,000,000 (up about $7,000,000) in theory that money should be spent somewhere. Most likely, disproportionately towards the players with higher salaries. Maybe as recent as 2-3 years ago a Matt Carle wasn't worth $5.5 million but now...maybe.

My wife is like that. A 24 pack of bottled water goes for $4.99 in our grocery store. On sale, MAYBE $3.99. She remembers it costing $2.99 way back when and is insistant someone still sells it at that amount. Poor soul.

I think Suter, Weber and Carle just happen to be among the first group of players to see this "inflation" applied.

Precisely precise. Inflation, and to a lesser extent, weak overall UFA market leads to overpayments.

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Myth or not, the two years he played with Pronger he was +19 and +30. The year without Pronger he was +4.

The year before Pronger arrived he was +2 in 64 games for the Flyers.

Carle can - and likely will - be as productive without Pronger offensively, but his defense is affected without a solid partner.

Flyer GAA (11-12 and before):: 2.70, 2.60, 2.68, 2.78

So the Flyers overall GAA didn't change that much over the four-year period (thus, it's not "Bryz's fault" that Carle was an average of -20 worse without Pronger).

The important thing for a "defenseman" isn't whether or not his offensive production is consistent, but whether his defensive play is.

This with/without Pronger argument is incredibly absurd. Guess what, Nick Lidstom would have better stats playing with a healthy Pronger than with say, Meszaros. that's why the general idea for GMs is to get as many good players as possible. Tends to make the team better, knowwhatimean?

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This with/without Pronger argument is incredibly absurd. Guess what, Nick Lidstom would have better stats playing with a healthy Pronger than with say, Meszaros. that's why the general idea for GMs is to get as many good players as possible. Tends to make the team better, knowwhatimean?

And that it what he is doing that i why he is letting Carle leave because he knows he ain't that good.

Can't really fault the player for getting as much money as he can.

And i don't, i wish him well.

I appreciate and won't forget his huge goal is the last game of the season in 2010.

Yet in the finals where was he?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????

Edited by OccamsRazor
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This with/without Pronger argument is incredibly absurd. Guess what, Nick Lidstom would have better stats playing with a healthy Pronger than with say, Meszaros. that's why the general idea for GMs is to get as many good players as possible. Tends to make the team better, knowwhatimean?

I completely agree with you about the argument being absurd. I had this exact same exchange with phlfly in the shoutbox, which is why the numbers were right at hand.

Not signing Carle could have been a good or bad thing. We'll find out. Trading Crater and Richards could have been a good or a bad thing. We'll find out.

Whether Carle is successful in Tampa or Crater and Richards won the Cup notwithstanding.

The decision alone isn't of tantamount importance. It's place in an ongong history of the GMs moves is yet to be determined.

If the Flyers win a Cup, no one will care about Matt Carle, Jeff Crater or Mike Richards.

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I completely agree with you about the argument being absurd. I had this exact same exchange with phlfly in the shoutbox, which is why the numbers were right at hand.

Not signing Carle could have been a good or bad thing. We'll find out. Trading Crater and Richards could have been a good or a bad thing. We'll find out.

Whether Carle is successful in Tampa or Crater and Richards won the Cup notwithstanding.

The decision alone isn't of tantamount importance. It's place in an ongong history of the GMs moves is yet to be determined.

If the Flyers win a Cup, no one will care about Matt Carle, Jeff Crater or Mike Richards.

If the Flyers win the Cup I won't even care about my pants. Ok, maybe everyone didn't need to know that.

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