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Should Scott Hartnell get a contract extension?


Guest Irishjim
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Why wouldn't you want five more years of this?

A

post by Bill Meltzer

on what

Scott Hartnell's

next contract should look like led to a discussion in the comments on today's Fly-By of

what he is worth

. I decided to take a look at what we should expect from him going forwards.

Was his production this year really an outlier?

star-divide.v5e9d7f1.jpg

A lot of people have proposed that Hartnell made a big jump forwards this year because he was on <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="

http://www.sbnation.com/nhl/players/55015/claude-giroux" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 13px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(190, 61, 18); text-decoration: none; font-weight: bold; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; ">Claude Giroux's wing, and that this sort of production is what we should expect of him when paired with a superstar playmaker. Yet his even strength production doesn't seem to have changed much:

<table align="center" border="2" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="1" style="margin: 8px auto; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 13px; vertical-align: baseline; border-collapse: collapse; border-spacing: 1px; border-color: rgb(170, 170, 170); color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 17px; text-align: left; "> <tbody style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 13px; vertical-align: baseline; "> <tr style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 13px; vertical-align: baseline; "> <td align="center" style="margin: 0px; padding: 3px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: top; "> Year</td> <td align="center" style="margin: 0px; padding: 3px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: top; "> Goals/60</td> <td align="center" style="margin: 0px; padding: 3px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: top; "> Primary assists/60</td> <td align="center" style="margin: 0px; padding: 3px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: top; "> Points/60</td> </tr> <tr style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 13px; vertical-align: baseline; "> <td align="center" style="margin: 0px; padding: 3px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: top; "> 2008-09</td> <td align="center" style="margin: 0px; padding: 3px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: top; "> 1.26</td> <td align="center" style="margin: 0px; padding: 3px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: top; "> 0.66</td> <td align="center" style="margin: 0px; padding: 3px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: top; "> 2.47</td> </tr> <tr style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 13px; vertical-align: baseline; "> <td align="center" style="margin: 0px; padding: 3px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: top; "> 2009-10</td> <td align="center" style="margin: 0px; padding: 3px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: top; "> 0.36</td> <td align="center" style="margin: 0px; padding: 3px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: top; "> 0.89</td> <td align="center" style="margin: 0px; padding: 3px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: top; "> 1.79</td> </tr> <tr style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 13px; vertical-align: baseline; "> <td align="center" style="margin: 0px; padding: 3px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: top; "> 2010-11</td> <td align="center" style="margin: 0px; padding: 3px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: top; "> 1.13</td> <td align="center" style="margin: 0px; padding: 3px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: top; "> 0.54</td> <td align="center" style="margin: 0px; padding: 3px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: top; "> 2.16</td> </tr> <tr style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 13px; vertical-align: baseline; "> <td align="center" style="margin: 0px; padding: 3px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: top; "> 2011-12</td> <td align="center" style="margin: 0px; padding: 3px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: top; "> 1.04</td> <td align="center" style="margin: 0px; padding: 3px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: top; "> 0.52</td> <td align="center" style="margin: 0px; padding: 3px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: top; "> 2.13</td> </tr> </tbody></table>

Take away an unlucky dip in his shooting percentage in '09-10 and this is a reasonably modest but steady decline. It's about what you'd expect from a player in the post-prime years from age 26-29, right before scoring starts to really crash in the early 30's.

But why such a strong bump this year? Take a look at Hartnell's power play production:

<table align="center" border="2" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="1" style="margin: 8px auto; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 13px; vertical-align: baseline; border-collapse: collapse; border-spacing: 1px; border-color: rgb(170, 170, 170); color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 17px; text-align: left; "> <tbody style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 13px; vertical-align: baseline; "> <tr style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 13px; vertical-align: baseline; "> <td align="center" style="margin: 0px; padding: 3px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: top; "> Year</td> <td align="center" style="margin: 0px; padding: 3px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: top; "> 5v4 TOI/G</td> <td align="center" style="margin: 0px; padding: 3px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: top; "> 5v4 goals</td> <td align="center" style="margin: 0px; padding: 3px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: top; "> 5v4 shots on goal</td> <td align="center" style="margin: 0px; padding: 3px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: top; "> 5v4 shooting percentage</td> </tr> <tr style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 13px; vertical-align: baseline; "> <td align="center" style="margin: 0px; padding: 3px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: top; "> 2008-09</td> <td align="center" style="margin: 0px; padding: 3px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: top; "> 2.32</td> <td align="center" style="margin: 0px; padding: 3px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: top; "> 6</td> <td align="center" style="margin: 0px; padding: 3px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: top; "> 21</td> <td align="center" style="margin: 0px; padding: 3px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: top; "> 28.6%</td> </tr> <tr style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 13px; vertical-align: baseline; "> <td align="center" style="margin: 0px; padding: 3px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: top; "> 2009-10</td> <td align="center" style="margin: 0px; padding: 3px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: top; "> 2.67</td> <td align="center" style="margin: 0px; padding: 3px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: top; "> 8</td> <td align="center" style="margin: 0px; padding: 3px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: top; "> 32</td> <td align="center" style="margin: 0px; padding: 3px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: top; "> 25.0%</td> </tr> <tr style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 13px; vertical-align: baseline; "> <td align="center" style="margin: 0px; padding: 3px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: top; "> 2010-11</td> <td align="center" style="margin: 0px; padding: 3px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: top; "> 2.75</td> <td align="center" style="margin: 0px; padding: 3px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: top; "> 4</td> <td align="center" style="margin: 0px; padding: 3px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: top; "> 19</td> <td align="center" style="margin: 0px; padding: 3px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: top; "> 21.1%</td> </tr> <tr style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 13px; vertical-align: baseline; "> <td align="center" style="margin: 0px; padding: 3px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: top; "> 2011-12</td> <td align="center" style="margin: 0px; padding: 3px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: top; "> 3.06</td> <td align="center" style="margin: 0px; padding: 3px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: top; "> 15</td> <td align="center" style="margin: 0px; padding: 3px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: top; "> 57</td> <td align="center" style="margin: 0px; padding: 3px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: top; "> 26.3%</td> </tr> </tbody></table>

He's always been a phenomenal power play shooter. He got a little more power play time this year with the

Flyers drawing a ton of penalties, but the difference wasn't huge. What does seem to be a huge difference is how often the team got him the puck when he was ready to shoot from his favorite spot.

When I started this analysis, I expected the punchline to be something like "he shot 14% on the power play each of the last three years and jumped to 32% this year, no way should the team pay up hoping that continues." Now that I see that the boost actually came from his shot rate, I'm much more encouraged; that might plausibly be a reproducible result of Giroux's passing and/or Laviolette's scheme.

We've seen players like

Dany Heatley suffer declines at even strength as they age but continue to produce extremely well on the power play. It's always scary to pony up a big contract after a single stand-out season, but if that power play shot rate continues early this year, I wouldn't be against the idea of extending his contract for a few more years.

Something in the $5M per year range is pretty good for a 30-goal scorer. Given how deadly his power play shot is, if they continue to get him those power play shots (and this is the big "if" -- I want to see evidence that it's reproducible before I'm signing him), he should be able to stay in the 30-goal range over the next few years

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Yes, Hartnell should definitely be extended. If Jagr and Selanne can each get 4.5M. Hartnell deserves a few more years at 5M.

Pending new CBA economics, I agree.

5m ish in a 70m cap, proportionally adjust the salary up/down with the cap.

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Going off pure questimation, i'd say around the high 4's low 5's.

I would say it depends on his production this year too.

The free agent class is strong next year, so it's not like he is the coveted gem. I think he is locked up to a deal by mid season.

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Going off pure questimation, i'd say around the high 4's low 5's.

I would say it depends on his production this year too.

The free agent class is strong next year, so it's not like he is the coveted gem. I think he is locked up to a deal by mid season.

I can definitely see a front-loaded contract for Hartrnell with some signing bonus thing - again pending the new CBA...

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No need to rush into a Hartnell extension. You have all next season to see how he produces.

I fully expect them to give him a "retire a Flyer" contract.

He's been a good player for them, i'd prefer to wrap him up so there are no distraction questions all season, let him have security...and avoid the Pinocchio questions all year....

at least make Pinocchio have to come up with something else to stir the pot....or he can just focus on aggravating Bryz all season... :D

Edit: You got to give it up to him it seems no matter how many times his line mates change and despite his numerous falls though out his career...dude keeps plugging away, IMHO just stetting a good example of a"team player" as you could ask.

Edited by OccamsRazor
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He's been a good player for them, i'd prefer to wrap him up so there are no distraction questions all season, let him have security...and avoid the Pinocchio questions all year....

at least make Pinocchio have to come up with something else to stir the pot....or he can just focus on aggravating Bryz all season... :D

Edit: You got to give it up to him it seems no matter how many times his line mates change and despite his numerous falls though out his career...dude keeps plugging away, IMHO just stetting a good example of a"team player" as you could ask.

Yeah, no complaints here, even if he is mildly retarded with a recurring severe inner infection. I'd love Philly to keep Hartnell.

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He's been a good player for them, i'd prefer to wrap him up so there are no distraction questions all season, let him have security...and avoid the Pinocchio questions all year....

at least make Pinocchio have to come up with something else to stir the pot....or he can just focus on aggravating Bryz all season... :D

Edit: You got to give it up to him it seems no matter how many times his line mates change and despite his numerous falls though out his career...dude keeps plugging away, IMHO just stetting a good example of a"team player" as you could ask.

This is a Good Reason to have the extra cap space during the season, which you need to be able to re-sign in-season. Again, there is no rush.

The only real imperative would be for Hartnell, who is at risk of injury. The Flyers really have no great incentive to get this done rightnow.

Again, I fully expect a "retire a Flyer" contract with Hartnell.

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I can definitely see a front-loaded contract for Hartrnell

ugh, I hate front loaded contracts. All they are good for is getting cap hits down in the beginning of deals but at the end it's excruciating. Plus, where's the motivation in the end to try to put up 4.5 mil effort when the actual salary is only a fraction of that?

that said, it wouldn't surprise me either....

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This is a Good Reason to have the extra cap space during the season, which you need to be able to re-sign in-season. Again, there is no rush.

The only real imperative would be for Hartnell, who is at risk of injury. The Flyers really have no great incentive to get this done rightnow.

Again, I fully expect a "retire a Flyer" contract with Hartnell.

Well again with the CBA looming there certainly is no rush till that is resolved.

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I would extend Hartnell. I have learned to appreciate him more over time. In the past, I used to hate and focus too much on all his bad penalties. With JVR and Jagr gone, we´re a lot smaller up front and we need a scoring winger with size and grit. I think he enjoys it in Philly and would probably take a hometown discount. Homer shouldn´t gamle on waiting, like he did on Carle, but work on an extension as soon as the new CBA is in place. Hopefully he would be signed during the season, so no hurry and racing up the price before free agency. Harts has his flaws and takes bad penalties, but he´s a consistent scorer, power forward and we desperately need a guy like that on the top 2 lines. I agree he can´t fight even though he tries. He has horrible balance and usually bails as soon as his opponents starts throwing punches.

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