Sources: NO trade talks for Weber. This could be bad

[Pauliking]

Two sources with knowledge of the situation confirmed that the Flyers and Nashville Predators have NOT had any trade talks since star defenseman Shea Weber signed a 14-year, $110 million offer sheet last Wednesday.

That would seem to suggest that Nashville plans to match the Flyers' offer. Either that, or the Predators are delaying trade talks because they are trying to get the Flyers to call with a sweet proposal.

This is high-stakes poker, folks.

At stake: The direction of two franchises for the next 14 years.

Oh, and $110 million.

Nashville must decide by 11:30 on Wednesday night whether to match the offer for the restricted free agent. If it does, Weber is retained by the Preds.

If Nashville doesn't match, Weber goes to the Flyers for four No. 1 draft picks.

Flyers general manager Paul Holmgren and Nashville GM David Poile have talked once since Weber signed the offer sheet. But as of Tuesday morning, no trade was discussed, two sources confirmed.

One would think if Nashville didn't plan to sign the offer sheet, it would be trying to orchestrate a trade in an attempt to get more than the four No. 1 picks.

Nashville could agree not to sign the offer sheet in exchange for making a deal, one in which it would trade some of the No. 1 selections back to the Flyers for NHL players.

Stay tuned. This game of high-stakes poker is heading toward a fascinating finish.

Follow Sam Carchidi on Twitter @BroadStBull.

Read more: http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/flyers/Sources-No-trade-talks-for-Weber-.html#ixzz21Ygi4BFf

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[Bakanekimiwa]

there's no reason for homer to blink here. he's holding a great hand and his chips are already on the table. i think Nashville is hollywooding a bit here before the fold to make it seem like they seriously considered matching.

they ain't matching... this is a show.

[Pauliking]

there's no reason for homer to blink here. he's holding a great hand and his chips are already on the table. i think Nashville is hollywooding a bit here before the fold to make it seem like they seriously considered matching. they ain't matching... this is a show.

I sure as hell hope so. It's going to be a serious kick to the balls if they sign at the last minute.

[Bakanekimiwa]

their only saving face might be that 'they tried' to come up with a scenario that would make sense to keep shea, but they just couldn't come up with a way. then they will trump up the 4 picks as a way to move forward. and then they will say how they are 're-committed' to winning. lol. somethings like that.

[HockeyFan]

To me it's like tax day. If I am square, or getting a refund, I file immediately.

If I need to send a check, it's mailed(/eFiled) April 15.

Weber is a refund resulting in future captial gains.

[TimKerrFan12]

So if no Weber then what. This is like having the winning lottery ticket and then losing it. What moves do we make then. Talk about a huge letdown. We have to move forward with the defense group that we have. I think they are a competant bunch...but man....Weber.....this will suck so bad if we lose him. If we lose him do we lose Doan as well. Do we trade for Ryan. Do we go from fixing our defense to added more offense. Does that even make sense. This is HUGE!

[Bakanekimiwa]

this is the bluff boys. this should have been totally expected. it's a last ditch attempt to try to pry some quality from Homer. he shouldn't budge. in poker it's called 'hollywooding' you pretend you're calling all the way. you might even reach for your chips and say things like.. 'you want me to call?' trying to get homer to flinch.

this all comes before the fold.

[OccamsRazor]

So if no Weber then what. This is like having the winning lottery ticket and then losing it. What moves do we make then. Talk about a huge letdown. We have to move forward with the defense group that we have. I think they are a competant bunch...but man....Weber.....this will suck so bad if we lose him. If we lose him do we lose Doan as well. Do we trade for Ryan. Do we go from fixing our defense to added more offense. Does that even make sense. This is HUGE!

There is just no way they can match this, just doesn't make sense...it would be suicide.

Over 150 million over the next 4 or 5 to Weber and Rinne??? The WHOLE effin franchise was valued at 163 million insane if they match. A death nell.

Then the year after the have 12 RFA's the best thing they can do is cut their losses and get something in return to help with the rebuild.

Especially since he's stated he no longer wants to be in Nashville and part of a rebuild.

It would be like being unemployed and drawing unemployment and then going out and buying a new car that you already can't afford????

Edited July 24, 2012 by OccamsRazor

[radoran]

There is just no way they can match this, just doesn't make sense...it would be suicide.

Doesn't mean they won't pull the trigger.

It's all high stakes.

My gut says tomorrow Poile lays out to Homer how they can match the offer - whether they "actually would" or not - and they work out some kind of deal that's announced in the middle of the night.

[TimKerrFan12]

I am thinking though Poile might be ``once bitten twice shy``. If he basically got caught up in this drama before and basically lost, he may be thinking more of himself then the franchise. That is what I am worried about.

[radoran]

I am thinking though Poile might be ``once bitten twice shy``. If he basically got caught up in this drama before and basically lost, he may be thinking more of himself then the franchise. That is what I am worried about.

yeah, once egos get involved - especially big ones - it gets harder to read.

The Stevens Situation is certainly in play. And having the rug ripped out from under him.

Then you have the egos of the owners - and whether or not they have the liquidity to weather the bonuses in the face of a potential lockout.

The egos of Snider and Homer were certainly involved on this side of the equation. I would say equally so in Nashville.

[AJgoal]

@TimKerrFan12 - He might, but he still has to work within the confines of what the ownership group would permit him. If they tell him no, he'd lose his job if he spent that much of their money.

[Bertmega]

@HockeyFan

Great analogy!!!

[Bakanekimiwa]

i guess the real question is whether or not Homer believes it is even possible for Nashville to match. If Poille can convince him of that, maybe they swing a deal. Otherwise, you have to believe it is simply *impossible* for Nashville to match... so it's all a show.

[Bertmega]

People seem to act like those four 1st round picks could be or are garbage.

Using the last 10 years as an example, minus the 2012 draft class; there has been a lot of talent in the later half of the 1st round.

Let me toss you a few names:

Chris Kreider

Eberle

Del Zotto

Sbisa

Giroux

Varlamov

Downie

Zajac

Meszaros

C. Schneider

Getzlaf

Brent Burns

Kessler

Mike Richards

Corey Perry

Cam Ward

Colby Armstrong

And imagine packaging some of those picks and a roster player for something decent. Or even better ride the tide and exploit next years crop of free agents with the plethora of cap space that they will have.

Edited July 24, 2012 by Bertmega

[pilldoc]

To me it's like tax day. If I am square, or getting a refund, I file immediately.

If I need to send a check, it's mailed(/eFiled) April 15.

Weber is a refund resulting in future captial gains.

Totally agree! Great analogy!

[murraycraven]

guys,

from the beginning I have been looking at this as a glass half empty scenario b/c I did not want my dreams to get smashed if and when Nash signs the offer sheet. There is so much (i believe) misinformation out there that it makes it tough b/c everyone is an armchair GM. Personally, I think that Nash signs the offer sheet and Weber remains with the Preds... just my gut intinct which I hope is grossly wrong.

Nash has the funds, if needed, to sign Weber... The minority owner (Brown) is one of the richest people in Canada. Knowing that they still need to sign a bunch of players on O and D to get to the floor it just makes me worry more...

Just saying that do not be bamboozled if Weber remains in Nash...

AGAIN... I hope this is nowhere close to being true but the longer this plays out I think it favors the Preds signing the offer sheet.

[TimKerrFan12]

guys,

from the beginning I have been looking at this as a glass half empty scenario b/c I did not want my dreams to get smashed if and when Nash signs the offer sheet. There is so much (i believe) misinformation out there that it makes it tough b/c everyone is an armchair GM. Personally, I think that Nash signs the offer sheet and Weber remains with the Preds... just my gut intinct which I hope is grossly wrong.

Nash has the funds, if needed, to sign Weber... The minority owner (Brown) is one of the richest people in Canada. Knowing that they still need to sign a bunch of players on O and D to get to the floor it just makes me worry more...

Just saying that do not be bamboozled if Weber remains in Nash...

AGAIN... I hope this is nowhere close to being true but the longer this plays out I think it favors the Preds signing the offer sheet.

Do u think that Nashville would take into consideration that he doesn`t want to be in Nashville and they will have an unhappy guy in the dressing room....thats if what is being said about that is true, which I believe it is. Weber is still pissed about having to go to arbitration and the whole mismanagement of the signing of Suter and Weber before they got to this stage of things.

[AJgoal]

@murraycraven - I hear what you're saying, but there are a few things to consider as well.

Brown may be one of the richest guys in Canada, but he's only a 5% owner. Does a 5% owner want to throw out almost 10% of the franchise value to help them keep Weber? Also, being rich doesn't mean you have that kind of cash on hand. He'd likely have to liquidate assets or get a loan. And from what I read about him, most of his 2B is tied up in his businesses that made him his money. Will the stockholders and board be on board with taking a loan against those assets (if that's what they need to do) to fund an unrelated venture?

Matching Weber's offer sheet forces the Preds to spend over 6 million dollars more in real money this year than they would normally just to reach the cap floor.

People I know in Nashville believe that the "fans leaving" argument doesn't hold water, and that the fans will come regardless of whether Weber is there or not.

[OccamsRazor]

guys,

from the beginning I have been looking at this as a glass half empty scenario b/c I did not want my dreams to get smashed if and when Nash signs the offer sheet. There is so much (i believe) misinformation out there that it makes it tough b/c everyone is an armchair GM. Personally, I think that Nash signs the offer sheet and Weber remains with the Preds... just my gut intinct which I hope is grossly wrong.

Nash has the funds, if needed, to sign Weber... The minority owner (Brown) is one of the richest people in Canada. Knowing that they still need to sign a bunch of players on O and D to get to the floor it just makes me worry more...

Just saying that do not be bamboozled if Weber remains in Nash...

AGAIN... I hope this is nowhere close to being true but the longer this plays out I think it favors the Preds signing the offer sheet.

All that aside just go back before they took him to arbitration....

they balked at giving him 21 million over 3 years....

..wouldn't couldn't do it to cheap or for whatever reason they just didn't want to give their 'corner stone best Damn in the league" the 21 million so now they are going to hand him...60+ million over the next 4 seasons??????

Just doesn't make sense they are just waiting till the last minute to tell everyone they can't, that is all they have left...right now really the only way the are even talking about the Preds.

Hell with Weber and Suter they just won their first ever playoff series.

So they give him all that money and then what?

They need a bunch of pieces not just one high paid Dman...they have many holes.

[Pauliking]

guys, from the beginning I have been looking at this as a glass half empty scenario b/c I did not want my dreams to get smashed if and when Nash signs the offer sheet. There is so much (i believe) misinformation out there that it makes it tough b/c everyone is an armchair GM. Personally, I think that Nash signs the offer sheet and Weber remains with the Preds... just my gut intinct which I hope is grossly wrong. Nash has the funds, if needed, to sign Weber... The minority owner (Brown) is one of the richest people in Canada. Knowing that they still need to sign a bunch of players on O and D to get to the floor it just makes me worry more... Just saying that do not be bamboozled if Weber remains in Nash... AGAIN... I hope this is nowhere close to being true but the longer this plays out I think it favors the Preds signing the offer sheet.

Sadly, I competely agree with you. I just can't see their team letting him get away from them after losing Sutter.

[AndyS]

Exactly.

[HockeyFan]

Using the last 10 years as an example, minus the 2012 draft class; there has been a lot of talent in the later half of the 1st round.

First round picks are nice to have, but we tend to either trade the pick, or trade the player we drafted anyway. Sure, past results don't mean ****, but it is interesting when you look over those we called first over the last few years, and what we did with them:

1995 Brian Boucher Traded 2002.

1996 Dainius Zubrus Traded 1999.

1998 Simon Gagne Traded 2010.

1999 Maxime Ouellet Traded 2003.

2000 Justin Williams. Traded 2004.

2001 Jeff Woywitka Traded 2003.

2002 Joni Pitkänen Traded 2007.

2003 Jeff Carter Traded 2011.

2003 Mike Richards Traded 2011.

2005 Steve Downie Traded 2008.

2006 Claude Giroux

2007 James Van Riemsdyk Traded 2012.

2008 Luca Sbisa Traded 2009.

2011 Sean Couturier

We own the rights to our first round draft picks for about 5 years on average, and Boucher the 1st, Carter, Richards, and Gagne are responsible for that number being that high. Frankly, we seem to have better luck with other teams first rounders. Of course, it's a vacuum looking at it that way - we got some good, and in some cases game changing players back in the trades. But make no mistake, the years we draft someone first overall, we trade that player -- they don't leave RFA/UFA. What value is a pick we are used to trading, or not having to begin with?

[Mad Dog]

First off, we don't know for sure if there are talkes between Homer and Poile or not.

And even if there aren't, why is htis necessarily a bad sign? People love to read way too much into this.

Personally.......... and this is purely my impression, not backed up by anything.......... personally, I think Homer will end up screwing this up and doing his team a huge disfavor. I am afraid he will get bullied and outsmarted by Poile and will give up three significant roster players for Weber, which will throw the Flyers back quite a bit.

At that point, I would rather the Flyers just do nothing and go into the camp with what we have.

Again........ just my hunch.

[Phillygrump]

guys,

from the beginning I have been looking at this as a glass half empty scenario b/c I did not want my dreams to get smashed if and when Nash signs the offer sheet. There is so much (i believe) misinformation out there that it makes it tough b/c everyone is an armchair GM. Personally, I think that Nash signs the offer sheet and Weber remains with the Preds... just my gut intinct which I hope is grossly wrong.

Nash has the funds, if needed, to sign Weber... The minority owner (Brown) is one of the richest people in Canada. Knowing that they still need to sign a bunch of players on O and D to get to the floor it just makes me worry more...

Just saying that do not be bamboozled if Weber remains in Nash...

AGAIN... I hope this is nowhere close to being true but the longer this plays out I think it favors the Preds signing the offer sheet.

Just because a guy has a lot of money doesn't mean he wants to piss it away after Poile's misjudgment.

This is not about spite or desperation. If Nashville felt desperate that their entire franchise was wrapped around one person would they feel comfortable investing in an albatross of a contract for him if their franchise was seemingly that fragile?

Take your heart out of it and think from a rational business stance.

Nashville has been feeding their fan base upon the illusion that they would spend money on free agents for the last 2 years and they haven't brought in a whole lot to justify their "tough talk". They had Lindback and money and Ellis and tons of assets to become buyers and spenders and they haven't done it. In fact they instead have gone in the other direction.

I have heard rumors for the past 2 years about Nashville is rumored to be after Richards or Parise or whoever and they miss out. They have all this cap space yet they get out bid for Brad Richards, Zach Parise, Ryan Suter, and now Shea Weber.

Now they are talking that they have all this money to match this offer and everyone is supposed to believe it? This organization has a tight fist wrapped around its cash and I doubt a panic is going to loosen it.

They may match, but at this point I see it as unlikely based on their track record. I think they have been selling a smoke screen to their fan base regarding their spending intentions the same way Howson is smoke screening the Blue Jacket fan base saying trading Nash puts them closer to their goal of winning a Stanley Cup this season.