Sources: NO trade talks for Weber. This could be bad

[murraycraven]

Just because a guy has a lot of money doesn't mean he wants to piss it away after Poile's misjudgment.

This is not about spite or desperation. If Nashville felt desperate that their entire franchise was wrapped around one person would they feel comfortable investing in an albatross of a contract for him if their franchise was seemingly that fragile?

Take your heart out of it and think from a rational business stance.

Nashville has been feeding their fan base upon the illusion that they would spend money on free agents for the last 2 years and they haven't brought in a whole lot to justify their "tough talk". They had Lindback and money and Ellis and tons of assets to become buyers and spenders and they haven't done it. In fact they instead have gone in the other direction.

I have heard rumors for the past 2 years about Nashville is rumored to be after Richards or Parise or whoever and they miss out. They have all this cap space yet they get out bid for Brad Richards, Zach Parise, Ryan Suter, and now Shea Weber.

Now they are talking that they have all this money to match this offer and everyone is supposed to believe it? This organization has a tight fist wrapped around its cash and I doubt a panic is going to loosen it.

They may match, but at this point I see it as unlikely based on their track record. I think they have been selling a smoke screen to their fan base regarding their spending intentions the same way Howson is smoke screening the Blue Jacket fan base saying trading Nash puts them closer to their goal of winning a Stanley Cup this season.

All great points PhillGrump... like I said it is just a hunch and I hope I am dead wrong. Just feel that the longer this plays out the more pessimistic I get... Great points by all tobe honest... I hope it happens!

[OccamsRazor]

Just because a guy has a lot of money doesn't mean he wants to piss it away after Poile's misjudgment.

This is not about spite or desperation. If Nashville felt desperate that their entire franchise was wrapped around one person would they feel comfortable investing in an albatross of a contract for him if their franchise was seemingly that fragile?

Take your heart out of it and think from a rational business stance.

Nashville has been feeding their fan base upon the illusion that they would spend money on free agents for the last 2 years and they haven't brought in a whole lot to justify their "tough talk". They had Lindback and money and Ellis and tons of assets to become buyers and spenders and they haven't done it. In fact they instead have gone in the other direction.

I have heard rumors for the past 2 years about Nashville is rumored to be after Richards or Parise or whoever and they miss out. They have all this cap space yet they get out bid for Brad Richards, Zach Parise, Ryan Suter, and now Shea Weber.

Now they are talking that they have all this money to match this offer and everyone is supposed to believe it? This organization has a tight fist wrapped around its cash and I doubt a panic is going to loosen it.

They may match, but at this point I see it as unlikely based on their track record. I think they have been selling a smoke screen to their fan base regarding their spending intentions the same way Howson is smoke screening the Blue Jacket fan base saying trading Nash puts them closer to their goal of winning a Stanley Cup this season.

Exactly.

There maybe no hockey for next season or even half of it, yet they would still be on the hook for the signing bonus money...

...they just can't afford it. It would be suicide.

Period.

Get what they can and move on like i said they just have too many holes to put all that money in one guy.

[radoran]

Exactly.

There maybe no hockey for next season or even half of it, yet they would still be on the hook for the signing bonus money...

...they just can't afford it. It would be suicide.

Period.

Get what they can and move on like i said they just have too many holes to put all that money in one guy.

They will match it if they don't get something they consider of value from the Flyers. I don't think they want him at $7.8M and would work out a trade next season. Yes, eating the bonus money.

Gratton cost a starting top 6 forward and a roster dman for the four firsts.

Flip that to a starting Top 4 dman and a roster forward?

[OccamsRazor]

First round picks are nice to have, but we tend to either trade the pick, or trade the player we drafted anyway. Sure, past results don't mean ****, but it is interesting when you look over those we called first over the last few years, and what we did with them:

1995 Brian Boucher Traded 2002.

1996 Dainius Zubrus Traded 1999.

1998 Simon Gagne Traded 2010.

1999 Maxime Ouellet Traded 2003.

2000 Justin Williams. Traded 2004.

2001 Jeff Woywitka Traded 2003.

2002 Joni Pitkänen Traded 2007.

2003 Jeff Carter Traded 2011.

2003 Mike Richards Traded 2011.

2005 Steve Downie Traded 2008.

2006 Claude Giroux

2007 James Van Riemsdyk Traded 2012.

2008 Luca Sbisa Traded 2009.

2011 Sean Couturier

We own the rights to our first round draft picks for about 5 years on average, and Boucher the 1st, Carter, Richards, and Gagne are responsible for that number being that high. Frankly, we seem to have better luck with other teams first rounders. Of course, it's a vacuum looking at it that way - we got some good, and in some cases game changing players back in the trades. But make no mistake, the years we draft someone first overall, we trade that player -- they don't leave RFA/UFA. What value is a pick we are used to trading, or not having to begin with?

Exactly remember Weber was a 2nd round pick in 2003 and everyone passed on him at least once that year.

Hard to believe yet that is the year they drafted Carter and Richards.

Flyer's didn't even have a 2nd rounder that year i believe.

[Phillygrump]

@OccamsRazor@murraycraven

Anything is a possibility, but I also think if it was a desperation move for them they would have responded as such. I am desperate for oxygen, which is why I breathe all the time. I don't hold my breath till the last minute and inhale.

I think they want to move him, but they are letting Philly sweat to see if they can get more from them.

[Phillygrump]

I would imagine that Voracek, Meszaros, and maybe MAB is a sound offer for them in order to recover 2-3 picks.

Thats a top 6 forward, top 4 defenseman, a prospect, and a pick. That is more than what Columbus got for Nash, although Howson is a goof.

In my opinion that is a reasonable deal given the circumstances of a handcuffing contract. Keep in mind their are some nice looking FAs coming out next season.

[OccamsRazor]

They will match it if they don't get something they consider of value from the Flyers. I don't think they want him at $7.8M and would work out a trade next season. Yes, eating the bonus money.

Gratton cost a starting top 6 forward and a roster dman for the four firsts.

Flip that to a starting Top 4 dman and a roster forward?

I disagree you don't give a guy 4 5ths of what you're whole franchise is worth...at the end of the day this is a business decision.

Giving one guy all that money ain't happening...not in this economy.

All that money tied up in two guys of which one would be pissed since he's stated he doesn't want to be part of a rebuild which is where they are headed...bottom line they gambled and lost.

[radoran]

I disagree you don't give a guy 4 5ths of what you're whole franchise is worth...at the end of the day this is a business decision.

Giving one guy all that money ain't happening...not in this economy.

All that money tied up in two guys of which one would be pissed since he's stated he doesn't want to be part of a rebuild which is where they are headed...bottom line they gambled and lost.

You may be right. I may be crazy.

But it just might be a lunatic running teams in this league...

with apologies to Billy Joel

[Phillygrump]

Also, as long as you have Rinne you are in a position to compete every year. The guy might be the best goalie in the league. Is Weber worth the 56 mil in four years with the threat of a work stoppage looming?

GMs and ownership will always find a way to sell their fan base. If the emotion is out of it what is the best move for Nashville?

[Phillygrump]

You may be right. I may be crazy.

But it just might be a lunatic running teams in this league...

with apologies to Billy Joel

Hey, fair enough.

[Claude Monet]

@Pauliking

It would be ASININE for Homer to even consider talking trade before the Preds have/have not match yet. It would take away from the massive leverage Homer maintains now.

The Preds financial situation is the key factor. They hold debt to a tune that is over 50% of the overall value of the club. That is fing insane!!~ They have lost money the last two years. They are facing zero revenue with a lockout.

If I am Homer there is no contact....either sign and pay him $26 million or don't and come to me with those 4 picks and we can talk, but only AFTER Weber is a Flyer.

of course this is based on the assumption that the Preds would be committing suicide by signing, but I say it is a darn good assumption

[radoran]

@Pauliking

It would be ASININE for Homer to even consider talking trade before the Preds have/have not match yet. It would take away from the massive leverage Homer maintains now.

The problem is that the team can't deal him for a calendar year once the offer is matched. So all they can do is say "we're gong to match it" and then you can reacat as if they are serious and try to work out a deal or that they are bluffing and see if they actually do match.

If they don't match, you get your player and lose your picks.

If they do, you lose your player and keep your picks. And IMO Poile deals Weber somewhere just to annoy the Flyers.

[AndyS]

They're not matching anything. If they were going to do it, it would already be done.

They're just trying to get as much as they can for him, but I don't think Homer will blink.

I do think that Homer has intended/hoped all along to make a trade with Nashville to unload some salary (i.e. Mez & Jake), so he can sign Doan. The only question is which of the younger d-men is he willing to give up (Bourdon or Gus), and how many picks are we losing (especially the #1's). If I'm Homer, I'm giving up no more than 2 #1 picks in this deal.

[AndyS]

The problem is that the team can't deal him for a calendar year once the offer is matched. So all they can do is say "we're gong to match it" and then you can reacat as if they are serious and try to work out a deal or that they are bluffing and see if they actually do match.

If they don't match, you get your player and lose your picks.

If they do, you lose your player and keep your picks. And IMO Poile deals Weber somewhere just to annoy the Flyers.

He can't trade him for at least 1 calendar year if he matches the Flyers' offer sheet.

And by then he will have paid almost $30 million to Weber in bonuses.

Nashville isn't matching squat.

[radoran]

He can't trade him for at least 1 calendar year if he matches the Flyers' offer sheet.

And by then he will have paid almost $30 million to Weber in bonuses.

Nashville isn't matching squat.

I am quite aware of your opinion. We will see what happens.

If you are absolutely right, then, yes, the Flyers should do absolutely nothing.

I do not believe that Homer shares your absolutist thought on the subject and is more interested in acquiring the player than winning a bet.

Bad GMs try to win bets (see: Poile, Howson). Good GMs don't make reckless gambles.

[AndyS]

I am quite aware of your opinion. We will see what happens.

The part about Nashville not being allowed to trade him for 1 calendar year is not my "opinion", it's fact.

Just making sure that much is clear.

I guess we'll see how it plays out pretty soon, won't we?

[OccamsRazor]

I am quite aware of your opinion. We will see what happens.

If you are absolutely right, then, yes, the Flyers should do absolutely nothing.

I do not believe that Homer shares your absolutist thought on the subject and is more interested in acquiring the player than winning a bet.

Bad GMs try to win bets (see: Poile, Howson). Good GMs don't make reckless gambles.

Especially when you are chancing pissing off a good trading partner and good friend...also considering you may get your good friend FIRED after all this goes down.

[AndyS]

Poile has no one to be angry at here but himself if he ever had any intention of re-signing Weber.

Never should have let him become an RFA in the first place.

[Claude Monet]

@radoran

If they do, you lose your player and keep your picks. And IMO Poile deals Weber somewhere just to annoy the Flyers"""

yeah that is the only leverage the Preds have in regard to the Flyers getting their man but would they really pay $26 million for a player for one year?

I hope Homer stays cold stone on this one

[Phillygrump]

And IMO Poile deals Weber somewhere just to annoy the Flyers.

You don't spend 27 mil on a player to annoy anyone and you CERTAINLY don't spend 27 mil on trade value just to annoy someone.

If Nashville matches that means they want Weber on their team for 14 years.

[jammer2]

@radoran Seems as if Poile did a piss poor job of covering the worst case scenario....something quality GM's do almost automatically. Either that or he was told by ownership to save money (ie don't cover all the bases).

[AndyS]

Homer gives Nashville the "bad guy" to blame it all on.

Wouldn't shock me at all if that aspect was actually discussed between the two. (Of course, we'll never know that.)

[Phillygrump]

I'd like to see something like Read, Mez, and MAB for Weber just because I think that is reasonable.

There is no reason to obliterate Nashville or like @radoran said "win a bet".

I would hope that Nashville could walk away from all this later saying "Holmgrien allowed us an out and did what was best for his team and helped us make a good deal out of it."

I would prefer that to burning bridges and risking not getting Weber.

Its possible that we could make a great play, get our man, make some cap room, and not burn bridges in the process. I like to see that come to fruition.

[Phillygrump]

I don't think its all Poile's fault. Why would he make bad moves like this if he had the financial backing of the Nashville ownership?

I think its more likely that Nashville ownership is serving a heaping pile of BS sound bytes to its fan base about spending money to be a contender.

I do not think they are financially committed to paying their guys the big buck they need to in order to keep them. I think its a nice thing to say and a different thing to do. I think the last 2 years is evidence of that.

I don't want to be too harsh on Poile for this.

[radoran]

I don't think Nashville wants him for 14 years.

I don't think Nashville thinks he's worth $7.8M (or $14M or $27M).

I do think Nashville will get more than four first rounders because I do think Nashville can match, will threaten to match and they will work out a deal because Homer wants the player in question and is too good a GM to lose an asset he wants on something as stupid as a bet.

And I think - again, opinion, just like yours - that the Preds would match if Homer "played hardball." And - again, my opinion which is not being presetned as stone cold unassailable fact as some of you are - is that Poile would then try to send Weber to a team that would see the Flyers more often than not when he does move Weber.

I am aware of all the limitations, specifications and permutations of this deal and have been discussing this situation long and hard on multiple threads for days now.

Your *opinion* may vary and be backed up by whatever you would like it to be backed up by.

If events show that I'm wrong, I'll happily and merrily watch Weber in orange and black and acknolwedge the error of my opinion.

Which is why I'm not saying what WILL happen, but what I THINK will happen and what I THINK the Flyers will do.

I prefer to be pleasantly surprised than horribly disappointed.