Implications of the O'Reilly Offer Sheet

[radoran]

A 22-year old who has yet to score 20 goals in a season, who in three seasons has had 26-26-55 points is now worth $5 million a season.

This, from a "small market" Canadian franchise.

From owners that just forced the cancellation of half of a season of hockey, and are squeezing in a 48-game season to give the Cup away (again) under the banner of cost control of spiralling salaries.

[ruxpin]

Valid point, rad.

In other news, Calgary can have him. Another loser to the team that absorbed all the Leaf losers.

[jammer2]

@radoran Just talked to a buddy who *supposedly* researced some scoring stats, apparently, the only player to score over 55 pts at the age of 20 or younger AND turned out to be a bum is Wolski.....so there is historical evidence (again, I didn't look this up....PROJECT...ha ha) to say he will be a respectable player. Don't think he's worth the cash right now, but a team like Calgary, who has been looking for a stud center for years and years, might be worth the gamble.

[radoran]

@radoran Just talked to a buddy who *supposedly* researced some scoring stats, apparently, the only player to score over 55 pts at the age of 20 or younger AND turned out to be a bum is Wolski.....so there is historical evidence (again, I didn't look this up....PROJECT...ha ha) to say he will be a respectable player. Don't think he's worth the cash right now, but a team like Calgary, who has been looking for a stud center for years and years, might be worth the gamble.

He's not a number one center. Could be. Might be. Isn't.

And the point is that the arbitration market is skewed by this signing.

Also, O'reilly was 21 at the end of last season.

On the plus side, Bob Clarke doesn't need to worry about getting a call from his mom.

[jammer2]

@radoran I think he would have been the number 1 center on the Flames., he's better than anything they have....ditto for the Leafs (although Kadri is lookiing wicked of late) or the Blue Jackets....even Montreal, he's better than all their centers right now. So he can be a number 1 center if traded to the right team.

[radoran]

@radoran I think he would have been the number 1 center on the Flames., he's better than anything they have....ditto for the Leafs (although Kadri is lookiing wicked of late) or the Blue Jackets....even Montreal, he's better than all their centers right now. So he can be a number 1 center if traded to the right team.

"would be" and "can be" equal "$5 Million" for a player who has never scored 20 goals from a small market franchise?

Again, the question here isn't whether the offer sheet made sense for the Flames to offer or the Avs to match. It's that a 21-year old who maxed out at 18 goals is now, arbitration-wise and in the minds of agents, a $5 million player.

BSchenn had 12 goals in 54 games last season. That "projects" to 18 goals in 82 games. At 20. His 6 goals and 18 points in 21 games this season "project" to 23 goals and 70 points in an 82 game season.

At 21.

Which effectively makes the market for BSchenn $5 Million when he comes up RFA in 14-15. Or, you know, more, considering he would potentially have significantly more goals and points than O'Reilly's mom's favorite son.

By contrast, Scott Hartnell is making $4.75M. Hartnell is a five-time 20-goal scorer who has potted 30+ - twice.

And, again, this is in the context of owners who just LOCKED OUT HALF A SEASON "to control costs" of sprialling salaries.

O'Reilly better tear up the league.