devil's advocate on Jones

[aziz]

Not that the flyers are likely to have to worry about it anymore, but....is a high draft pick a good way to rebuild the blue line? How many can't-miss blue-chip defensemen have lived up to the billing? I mean, klesla, bowmeester, pitkanen, barker, Johnson, the other Johnson, hickey, alzner, bogosian, pietrangelo, schenn, hedman....in the last 13 years, really only whitney and doughty have come close to giving value to their top five draft position. Aren't difference making defensemen a lot like goalies, surprising everyone years after draft day? Chara (2nd round), weber (2nd round), timonen (10th round), Keith (2nd round), yandle (4th round)....lidstrom, for that matter (3rd round). Don't these guys tend to pop up from the ranks of the untouted later in their careers, while the high picks tend to underwhelm?

Boiling it down...isn't a forward the safest choice, the most likely to give you a valuable asset?

[Adamflyers]

Good point, however, you need to actually have 2nd and 3rd round picks to draft guys like that, so I guess we are SOL!

[mojo1917]

@aziz

they are rather miss and hit aren't they, some of the guys on your list there, peitrangelo,, hedman and dare i say it schenn are playing pretty well and are living the dream as well as up to the hype.

for that matter Dougie Hamilton looks to have a bright future as does Adam Larsson and Oliver Eckman-Larson. Now i don't know if the last two are first round picks but they're the real deal.

I get what you're saying though, I think any time you're drafting an "18" year old kid it is a risk, For every OEL there is an Alexander Daigle, and i think when it comes to defenseman the junior system isn't putting out NHL ready guys because they just aren't there cognitively yet. They are too young and immature to handle the position , money , new life, and pressure. i think at least with the top guys and i'll await the avalanche of howling criticism to follow, the NCAA s top defensive prospects are better equipped to make the jump to the NHL because they're "more grown up" . it is a rare and special kid that can come to an NHL team and be an effective blueline player as an 18 year old, is seth jones that kid ? who knows. seems like it though.

[JackStraw]

Not that the flyers are likely to have to worry about it anymore, but....is a high draft pick a good way to rebuild the blue line? How many can't-miss blue-chip defensemen have lived up to the billing? I mean, klesla, bowmeester, pitkanen, barker, Johnson, the other Johnson, hickey, alzner, bogosian, pietrangelo, schenn, hedman....in the last 13 years, really only whitney and doughty have come close to giving value to their top five draft position. Aren't difference making defensemen a lot like goalies, surprising everyone years after draft day? Chara (2nd round), weber (2nd round), timonen (10th round), Keith (2nd round), yandle (4th round)....lidstrom, for that matter (3rd round). Don't these guys tend to pop up from the ranks of the untouted later in their careers, while the high picks tend to underwhelm?

Boiling it down...isn't a forward the safest choice, the most likely to give you a valuable asset?

I would disagree on several accounts. Firstly, many of those guys are still young and haven't reached their peak yet. Second, A few of them can certainly be argued to be living up to their draft positions. Pietrangelo and Hedman to name two, there's almost no way you could trade for either of those guys without seriously over paying. Luke Schenn is looking pretty darn good too, after being messed up by Ron Wilson in Tronno (There's also Ekman-Larsson, who was taken 6th, and is already elite at age 21).

Also, how many of those guys were rated as highly as Jones? Eric Johnson was the only one who was actually taken first. And Jones is rated as the #1 prospect by pretty much everyone, in a draft with at least two other players who would likely go first overall in many other years.

Finally, you could probably come up with a bunch of forwards who have also failed to live up to their billing. Start with JVR and Turris. Everyone, including the scouts who rank these guys, knows that young defensemen are harder to predict, and take longer to develop, than young forwards. So the fact that Jones (and some of the other guys in this draft) are regarded so highly should say something.

Finally, if you're looking for franchise defensemen, you're still probably much more likely to find them in the first round than in rounds 2, 3, or whatever. Just because a few top d-men came in later rounds doesn't mean that drafting a guy in one of those rounds is likely to work. Kevin Marshall says hello. Pavel Datsyuk (6th round) and Henrik Zetterberg (7th round) also say hello on behalf of great forwards taken in later rounds.

You do your due diligence in scouting these kids and you trust your competency (even if your fans don't share that trust) in evaluating talent and need. You start playing mind games with yourself and before you know it you're drafting a 26 year old ex-fireman in the first round to play offensive guard.

Edited April 24, 2013 by JackStraw

[jammer2]

@mojo1917 Bogosian showed flashes of becoming the star he was projected to be this year. Took quite a while, and only in flashes, but he did get hit with the injury bug also.

[JackStraw]

@mojo1917 Bogosian showed flashes of becoming the star he was projected to be this year. Took quite a while, and only in flashes, but he did get hit with the injury bug also.

Erik Johnson also had injury problems. I think many of these guys are coming along alright and there are more than a few that the Flyers could certainly use. It's a harder position to play, especially if you're expected to be an impact player at both ends and you're playing on a bad team (which many of them are). Even Doughty has had plenty of criticism, much of which is/was off-base imo.

[flyerrod]

Something else that needs to be taken into account is the system they come into. Names like Siedenberg who played horribly here but paired with Chara is a top pairing d-man. Pitkanen is another top 4 d-man the flyers had and moved because he didn't get it. Janne Ninnammaa (sp?) same again. Luca Sbisa traded for the aging Pronger which at the time looked like a decent enough trade until Pronger got injured. Matt Carle left via free agency (personally was never a big Carle fan) but again he only looked good when he was on the ice with Pronger. I am sure there are several other defensemen who I have failed to recall off the top of my head but the point is they either did not fit well into the system or with the personnel here or they wanted too much money. It is EXTREMELY rare for an eighteen year old defenseman to come into the NHL and play top pairing minutes.

[OccamsRazor]

Aren't difference making defensemen a lot like goalies, surprising everyone years after draft day?

Really all lays at the feet of your scouts....and then relying on them...hhhhmmmmmmm....guess they will test them this year. Like every year!

[aziz]

@JackStraw

I think many of these guys are coming along alright and there are more than a few that the Flyers could certainly use

I guess that is my question: is "coming along" years after draft day, and someone the flyers "could certainly use" what one hopes to get out of a top 5 pick?

It just seems to me that forwards picked in the top 5 have a far better track record of being high impact players than defensemen. And, high impact forwards are more likely to come from those high picks, whereas high impact defensemen don't seem to follow their age 18 scouting report as closely. Meaning, while there are the zetterbergs and datsyuks, star nhl forwards tended to be star juniors... While star nhl dmen seem as likely to be taken 57th overall as 3rd.

I'm not trying to argue, the percentages just occurred to me today, am throwing it out there.

[Claude Monet]

@aziz

I live in Portland. I get what your saying but I take Jones #1. He deserves the hype and then some.

[Jam1986]

Head Kelly Chase say it takes a D/man to at least to 26 to be good d/man. If we draft a d/man let him go to the AHL or stay in his league the AHL so saying 2yrs away

[aziz]

@Claude Monet

then you know better than I. I just keep having flashes of erik johnson and jay bouwmeester when I hear about him. they were absolute can't miss multiple norris winners just waiting to happen, and whoever was lucky enough to draft them was going to be set with a cornerstone franchise dman for years to come. except that totally didn't happen.

you are probably right. just...thoughts.

[radoran]

The traditional line on defensemen is that they really "develop" in their mid-20s - with obvious exceptions. It's why you have guys who are drafted lower and come out the the AHL at that point. Or the other way around - Bouwmeester was a 40-point defenseman four years in a row when the Flames gave him the $6.6M contract. Hasn't cracked 30 since (not that Calgary is some sort of offensive powerhouse). While I am not a big Bouwmeester fan, he plays every game and is a consistent presence. If you can get that for 10 years with a #1 pick, that's at least something.

I think the key is to have the patience with them to develop. They are going to have off years and are likely to come in and look strong before having a fallow period. It's why young guys coming up from the AHL, being asked to keep it simple and not make mistakes, look good in small doses but over a longer period with more responsibility are exposed.

Nobody is a "can't miss" prospect. Anyone can have a career-changing or -ending injury. Some guys peak early. Some guys are simply reaching their potential earlier and are more accomplished at a younger age without as much "upside" as might have been thought.

[JackStraw]

@JackStraw

I guess that is my question: is "coming along" years after draft day, and someone the flyers "could certainly use" what one hopes to get out of a top 5 pick?

It just seems to me that forwards picked in the top 5 have a far better track record of being high impact players than defensemen. And, high impact forwards are more likely to come from those high picks, whereas high impact defensemen don't seem to follow their age 18 scouting report as closely. Meaning, while there are the zetterbergs and datsyuks, star nhl forwards tended to be star juniors... While star nhl dmen seem as likely to be taken 57th overall as 3rd.

I'm not trying to argue, the percentages just occurred to me today, am throwing it out there.

I think one of the factors you have to consider is the very point you're making. Defensemen are harder to predict so not as many tend to be rated so highly (say, top 10). So yes, you'd expect to have more impact forwards who were high picks than defensemen. But that doesn't mean that when there is a highly rated d-man, and there haven't been many as highly rated as Jones in recent years, that that guy is inherently riskier.

I guess the main point I'm making is that the point you make is (or should be) factored into the prospect rankings that scouts come up with. I don't think that if a guy is the top ranked prospect as a defenseman he's necessarily any riskier than if he was a forward, it's just less likely that a defensemen will be in that position in the first place.

[JackStraw]

@aziz - one other point, which rad also just hinted at. If you look at TOI for defensemen this season, you will see a whole bunch of first rounders up among the leaders. Some later picks too, but a lot of firsts. I would argue that regardless of points (which after all is not really the highest priority for a franchise type d-man) if you have a guy who is playing big minutes every night, you have an impact player. It may not show up on the scoreboard but a guy that can give you around 25 minutes every night while playing in all situations is a very valuable asset.

[aziz]

@JackStraw

I don't think that if a guy is the top ranked prospect as a defenseman he's necessarily any riskier than if he was a forward, it's just less likely that a defensemen will be in that position in the first place

Well, Johnson and bouwmeester are the only other two I know of. And pronger, as I think about it, so...

[JackStraw]

@JackStraw

Well, Johnson and bouwmeester are the only other two I know of. And pronger, as I think about it, so...

I don't know where either of them were ranked before the draft, but only Johnson was taken #1. Pronger was #2 I think, and JB #3. And Pronger was taken after Daigle, so there you are.

[aziz]

Bouwmeester was ranked top skater in north America.

[JackStraw]

Bouwmeester was ranked top skater in north America.

Ok, didn't know that. Still, as rad points out, he's had a pretty decent career. Time will tell with Jones. I think he will be elite, he as all the tools. Physical and mental.

Edited April 25, 2013 by JackStraw

[flyercanuck]

Not that the flyers are likely to have to worry about it anymore, but....is a high draft pick a good way to rebuild the blue line? How many can't-miss blue-chip defensemen have lived up to the billing? I mean, klesla, bowmeester, pitkanen, barker, Johnson, the other Johnson, hickey, alzner, bogosian, pietrangelo, schenn, hedman....in the last 13 years, really only whitney and doughty have come close to giving value to their top five draft position. Aren't difference making defensemen a lot like goalies, surprising everyone years after draft day? Chara (2nd round), weber (2nd round), timonen (10th round), Keith (2nd round), yandle (4th round)....lidstrom, for that matter (3rd round). Don't these guys tend to pop up from the ranks of the untouted later in their careers, while the high picks tend to underwhelm?

Boiling it down...isn't a forward the safest choice, the most likely to give you a valuable asset?

A forward is definately a safer choice than a defenceman. I'd bet MacKinnon or Drouin or Barkov make an allstar team before Jones or Nurse. It seems forwards reach their stride around 25 these days and have their best years til around 29. Defencemen for the most part aren't even NHL ready til around 25 (though top picks would be a lot earlier) and usually peak around 30ish and up. You have to put a lot of time into developing D, that's why the Flyers don't do it...they don't have the patience. It won't surprise me one bit if we end up with another forward this draft.

As for some of those names...Pietrangelo can play on my team anyday. Schenn looks to be coming along nicely, as already said, after Wilson destroyed the kids confidence. Hedman is a good player. Pitkanen is a good player - taken in a weak draft. Hickey was such a reach everyone went "Who?" when LA wasted that pick.

[aziz]

@flyercanuck

As for some of those names...Pietrangelo can play on my team anyday. Schenn looks to be coming along nicely, as already said, after Wilson destroyed the kids confidence. Hedman is a good player. Pitkanen is a good player - takn in a weak draft.

Well, yeah. I agree. I just, well, again, is that what you hope for with a top five pick? Coming along nicely, good player, can play on my team any day....there isn't a lot of ZOMG there, you know? Not many dmen are ZOMG, I get it, but I'd think you at least want to shoot for that if you pick up a rare high choice. If you walk away from the podium after the first over all pick saying, "he'll be a nice player," feels like a miss, you know?

[flyercanuck]

@aziz

Well in my books I want Dmen who can play D. You can have your ZOMG Mike Greens and Sergei Gonchars, I'll take guys who help protect their goalie and chip in points. It's rare when a defenceman can do both really well. And those are the guys you "waste" a top pick trying to get. Which is why I'd take a chance on a Jones, Nurse or Ristolainen but wouldn't take a Zadorov or a Pulock with our pick.

[aziz]

@flyercanuck

Ok, good point. Well said, I'm on board.

[JackStraw]

@aziz - fyi, just saw this (and other similar sentiments) on hfboards regarding Bouwmeester:

"Bouwmeester has been awesome. I think we end up extending 5 million per season at 4 or 5 years. Armstrong will maintain god status if he somehow gets that number under 5 million per season.

I've learned Bouwmeester is incredibly underrated on HF just because he is about 1 million overpaid. Not a chance in hell we trade him."

Edited April 25, 2013 by JackStraw

[radoran]

@aziz - fyi, just saw this (and other similar sentiments) on hfboards regarding Bouwmeester:

"Bouwmeester has been awesome. I think we end up extending 5 million per season at 4 or 5 years. Armstrong will maintain god status if he somehow gets that number under 5 million per season.

I've learned Bouwmeester is incredibly underrated on HF just because he is about 1 million overpaid. Not a chance in hell we trade him."

Why would Bouwmeester sign for less than he is making now if he is "awesome" with the Blues?

If he signs for less than $5M, the NHLPA will step in. If he signs for less than $6M, I'd be more than surprised.