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What does an 11th overall look like?


brelic

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Ok, just for fun, here's a look at past 11th overall picks.

2012 - Filip Forsberg (RW)

2011 - Duncan Siemens (D)

2010 - Jack Campbell (G)

2009 - Ryan Ellis (D)

2008 - Kyle Beach (LW) [Tyler Myers was 12th, Erik Karlsson was 15th, Del Zotto was 20th]

2007 - Brandon Sutter (C/RW) [McDonagh was 12th, Shattenkirk was 14th, Blum was 23rd]

2006 - Jonathan Bernier (G)

2005 - Anze Kopitar © [Marc Staal was 12th, Ryan Parent was 18th, Niskanen was 28th]

2004 - Lauri Tukonen (RW) [Meszaros was 23rd, Mike Green was 29th]

2003 - Jeff Carter © [Ryan Suter was 7th, Coburn was 8th, Phaneuf was 9th, Seabrook was 14th]

2002 - Keith Ballard (D) [JBo was 3rd, Pitkanen was 4th, Eminger was 12th, Grebeshkov was 18th]

2001 - Fredrik Sjostrom (RW) [Hamhuis was 12th, Colaiacovo was 17th, Gleason was 23rd]

2000 - Pavel Vorobiev (RW) [Klesla was 4th, Lars Jonsson was 7th, Hainsey was 13th, Orpik was 18th, Volchenkov was 21st, Kronwall was 29th]

Some great picks in there, some so-so, and some that make you say "Who?"

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At least there's some depth to this years draft. We should end up getting a decent player.

In theory, we should. But as you can see, there are some great prospects that just never pan out. Let's hope we get a pick of the Kopitar variety and not the Vorobiev kind.

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I would have preferred losing some meaningless games at the end to get top 8 but I think we will still end up with a quality defenseman who might be more NHL ready or closer to NHL ready than Nurse.

In looking at several reputable mock drafts, some have Nikita Zadorov and Rasmus Ristolainen falling to the Flyers. I like both of them with a preference for Risto. Both play a physical game with an edge but Risto has more offensive upside.

Zadorov already has NHL size at 6'4/5 230 and adapted well to coming over and playing in the "O". I think he would project more to a physical stay at home top 4 defenseman who can occasionally join the rush. In my opinion Risto has more offensive upside and could eventually play a point on a power play while also having a physical game. I think if ended up with either of these two it would be a good pick

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@Dynamo 47 - I don't think Zadorov will be any more NHL ready than Nurse. I get the feeling he will need another year in junior to develop his offensive game. Risto seems like he will be NHL ready next year, Nurse and Zadorov probably will need another year.

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Guys...moving up in the draft isn't as costly as we think. Been looking at previous draft day trades involving moving up...and there seems to be a "standard" price to move up a couple of spots:

  • 2-3 spots up = swap 1st round picks plus a 2nd round pick and another pick (usually 3rd round or next years 2nd round)
  • obviously, this doesn't apply if you are looking to go from 4th to 2nd or something like that. but where we are picking, we could easily move 2, 3, 4 even 5 spots up for a reasonable price

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@ctid

I'd say this is a 5-6 player draft. Meaning if you have a top 6 pick you're almost guaranteed to get an impact player. After that your guess is as good as mine who's going to end up being what in the NHL. We could trade our 1st and 2nd pick to move up 3 spots and get the best player in the draft.... or we could trade our 1st and 2nd pick and get a bum and watch the team we traded with draft 2 impact players.

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That is true Flyercanuck but I think the draft is deep. That is why I wish we had lost a meaningless game or two in the end to improve or lottery positions. That being sad I would not trade up because once you are out of the top 6 we have just as good a chance at a good player at 11 as the player picked 7th or 8th.

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@flyercanuck

true. However, I keep hearing that his is NOT just a 5-6 player draft. That this draft is extremely deep, maybe even more so than 2003. But, I generally agree with your point.

I'm not saying there isn't good players after the 5th or 6th pick. I just think those guys are all practically can't miss types (even though there rarely is such a thing).

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That is why I wish we had lost a meaningless game or two in the end to improve or lottery positions.

The second worst team won the lottery, so the Flyers would have had to lose 5+ games to take advantage, i.e. finish at least 11 points lower. However, even a single loss would have "improved" their position to #8 overall. We'll find out what those extra couple of wins cost us soon enough.

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