What's the Next Shoe to Drop?

[Howie58]

Greetings:

I am happy with the extension of Coots and suspect others will follow. But I still think Trader Homer has a trick or two up his sleeve. The end of this month is the due date and Mez is the catalyst. If we believe Homer, our 2010-11 Ashbee winner is medically cleared at the end of the July. If I had to put money on it...that won't happen.

We could use a sniper. We might even go after a young D man somewhere. I could even see cap clearing for picks. Bottom line--me thinks we are in for another deal, even if it's to clear a name off our 50 cap. But Mez's 4+ mill cap getting cleared is no chump change. Sadly, I wonder who would take the guy with his injury history. Do I smell LTIR? .

OK, best to all.

Howie

[jammer2]

@Howie58 Not sure which shoe specifically drops, but I don't think anyone thinks homer is done, there will be at least a few moves before it's all said and done. Only real question is will they be small moves or rather large trades. I'd like to see small cap clearing moves and just see what the team can do...unless some comes across his table that is to good to turn down.

[Mad Dog]

@Howie58

I agree; the F'yers seem to have put themselves in a position where they almost have no choice but to trade some salaries / bodies away. And I am not saying this with a criticism of the Flyers (I actually think this is a good problem to have); just saying there is a glut of d-men for better or worse.

As of right now, I think there is something like 9 defensemen who are signed and each of those defensemen (minos Gervais) is a candidate to make the roster. Somebody has to go. It's just a simple math. I think many people expect that to be Meszaros, and it's reasoable at least to assume that GMs are waiting to see a current medical report. I think when healthy, he is still very effective and there are tons of teams who coudl use him. I think this is the major reason why Homer has been quiet lately. If there are no takers for "healthy" Meszaros, I would expect Coburn to be gone.

[NRH]

LTIR seems more likely than being able to deal him elsewhere

[aziz]

LTIR seems more likely than being able to deal him elsewhere

he has to be verifiably injured to be put on LTIR. if he is medically cleared.....

[murraycraven]

@ Howie

Greetings Howie,

I think the expectation is that someone will have to be moved from the defense. I am not sure what team would be willing to take a flyer (no pun intended!) on Mez given his history of injuries and his cap hit of 4M. When healthy he is certainly worth the 4M but I would be hesitant to take him on if only for one season. Mex is a good player and if he were healthy I would love the Flyers to keep him around.

I think Homer either (1) moves Mez for a bag of pucks in order to dump salary or (2) trades Coburn for some type of decent return. It will be interesting to see as I think we can all agree Homer is not done tinkering. Guessing the magnitude of "tinkering" is something that we will only know when made public.

Personally, I dont see any big trades in the future for the Flyers. I think the best thing that could happen is to trim some of the salary off the cap and go into this season w/ the current roster.

Cheers!

[Howie58]

@Howie58 Not sure which shoe specifically drops, but I don't think anyone thinks homer is done, there will be at least a few moves before it's all said and done. Only real question is will they be small moves or rather large trades. I'd like to see small cap clearing moves and just see what the team can do...unless some comes across his table that is to good to turn down.

We agree; I see small deals but one never knows.

Peace,

Howie

[brelic]

@Howie58

I agree; the F'yers seem to have put themselves in a position where they almost have no choice but to trade some salaries / bodies away. And I am not saying this with a criticism of the Flyers (I actually think this is a good problem to have); just saying there is a glut of d-men for better or worse.

As of right now, I think there is something like 9 defensemen who are signed and each of those defensemen (minos Gervais) is a candidate to make the roster. Somebody has to go. It's just a simple math. I think many people expect that to be Meszaros, and it's reasoable at least to assume that GMs are waiting to see a current medical report. I think when healthy, he is still very effective and there are tons of teams who coudl use him. I think this is the major reason why Homer has been quiet lately. If there are no takers for "healthy" Meszaros, I would expect Coburn to be gone.

According to Capgeek, here are the defensemen we have under contract:

Timonen, Kimmo » $6,000,000

Streit, Mark » 35+ $5,250,000

Pronger, Chris » 35+ $4,941,429

Coburn, Braydon » $4,500,000

Meszaros, Andrej » $4,000,000

Schenn, Luke » $3,600,000

Grossmann, N. » $3,500,000

Gustafsson, Erik » $1,000,000

Gervais, Bruno » $825,000

Bourdon, M. » $612,500

Even removing Pronger and Gervais leaves us with 8 signed guys for a total of just under $30M. Bourdon is a question mark because of his concussion issues, so he would be #7/8 at best right now along with Meszaros.

So yeah, someone has to go.

[NRH]

I still say dump Marc-Andre gervais and grossman and fetch Whitney for a decent price.

[jammer2]

@murraycraven " I am not sure what team would be willing to take a flyer (no pun intended!) on Mez given his history of injuries and his cap hit of 4M. When healthy he is certainly worth the 4M but I would be hesitant to take him on if only for one season. Mex is a good player and if he were healthy I would love the Flyers to keep him around"

Exactly, why would any GM pay 4 mill for a guy with his injury situation? Myself, I'd take UFA Ron Hainsey for 1-2 mill a year, who might or might not be an upgrade over a healthy Mez, but why take the chance when there are other cheaper and more viable options sitting there for free in UFA status. It would be giving up a mid round draft pick and doubling the cap hit.

[Mad Dog]

Exactly, why would any GM pay 4 mill for a guy with his injury situation? Myself, I'd take UFA Ron Hainsey for 1-2 mill a year, who might or might not be an upgrade over a healthy Mez, but why take the chance when there are other cheaper and more viable options sitting there for free in UFA status. It would be giving up a mid round draft pick and doubling the cap hit.

I can't imagine the Flyers' asking price for Mez would be anything higher than a a 3rd round pick. From the Flyers' perspective, this would be exclusively a salary dump move.

But I think as long as he is healthy, he is still very useful. I would expect there would be some teams who would be interested in adding him to the roster. I can see a GM who - at least in his mind - thinks his team is ready to compete for the Cup this upcoming season. I can see a team like St. Louis, Vancouver, or LA looking to add a vetran d-man. Again, the caveat is his health report is favorable. And from what I am hearing, he is supposedly close to being 100% healthy.

My only question is - and I am too lazy to look online right now - is how many years are remaining on his contract. I can't imagine it's a lot, but this is something I would be looking at because obvioulsy for the player with such a health hostory, the longevity plays a big role. But I would say if he is healthy, if the Flyers are not asking much in treturn, and the remaining contract does not put me in the bind, I am trading for him. Why not?

[Mad Dog]

@brelic

And if I am not mistaken, Lauridsen is also under contract. Wasn't he just signed... literally several weeks ago? But the Flyers don't have any pressure to make any decision on him since, as I undertsand, he has a 2-way contract and can be sent down without having to clear the wavers. I would still like him to make the starting 6, but that's not going to happen. I just can't see him cracking the lineup barring any unusual circumstances.

Bordon is an interesting case. He was a breakout candidate a year ago before he succumbed to the injury. Is he ready to resume the form of the 2012 season? Or is he going to regress? I guess as long as he makes the training camp, the rest is up to him. But still, if at least one of either Mez or Coburn is not gone, it will be difficult for Bourdon to make the team.

[brelic]

And if I am not mistaken, Lauridsen is also under contract. Wasn't he just signed... literally several weeks ago? But the Flyers don't have any pressure to make any decision on him since, as I undertsand, he has a 2-way contract and can be sent down without having to clear the wavers. I would still like him to make the starting 6, but that's not going to happen. I just can't see him cracking the lineup barring any unusual circumstances.

Yes, you're right... and he doesn't appear for the exact reason you mention: he is waiver exempt on a 2-year contract, so he doesn't count as part of our NHL cap.

But in Bourdon's case, he is no longer waiver exempt, which means they could lose him if they assign him to the Phantoms. Otherwise, they have to keep him with the big team, and his cap hit will count even if he's not playing. Not a big cap hit, though.

[Quint]

Who knows what Homer's thinking. I'm not sure how much money they have to take off the top to be cap compliant, but I suspect minor moves.

A Bruno here a Bourdon there, a phantom Mez injury. If not enough...I think last resort Coburn gone for picks ( hope not).

Otherwise, I think they will asses after the first 20 games like they usually do, and make adjustments to the roster then.

[radoran]

I can't imagine the Flyers' asking price for Mez would be anything higher than a a 3rd round pick. From the Flyers' perspective, this would be exclusively a salary dump move.

But I think as long as he is healthy, he is still very useful. I would expect there would be some teams who would be interested in adding him to the roster. I can see a GM who - at least in his mind - thinks his team is ready to compete for the Cup this upcoming season. I can see a team like St. Louis, Vancouver, or LA looking to add a vetran d-man. Again, the caveat is his health report is favorable. And from what I am hearing, he is supposedly close to being 100% healthy.

My only question is - and I am too lazy to look online right now - is how many years are remaining on his contract. I can't imagine it's a lot, but this is something I would be looking at because obvioulsy for the player with such a health hostory, the longevity plays a big role. But I would say if he is healthy, if the Flyers are not asking much in treturn, and the remaining contract does not put me in the bind, I am trading for him. Why not?

Meszaros is a pending UFA.

He also doesn't have a trade clause.

If the health report is good, the Flyers can avail themselves of whatever they can get. He almost certainly would not be here in 14-15 anyway.

[Mad Dog]

Meszaros is a pending UFA.

He also doesn't have a trade clause.

If the health report is good, the Flyers can avail themselves of whatever they can get. He almost certainly would not be here in 14-15 anyway.

Pending UFA when? The next summer?

[brelic]

Pending UFA when? The next summer?

Yes, at the end of the upcoming season.

If you can get a 4th rounder or so, trade him.

[radoran]

Yes, at the end of the upcoming season.

If you can get a 4th rounder or so, trade him.

If you can get future considerations, trade him... Freeing up the space on the roster is what's needed. The only other option would be to try to sneak him into the A since there are no recall waivers now, but that only frees up $900K on the cap and I believe you risk another team grabbing him going down and you keep half the hit.

[AJgoal]

I don't think you risk the half cap hit anymore, those were the re-entry waiver rules, I haven't found any reference to that under the new CBA. I do think that if the Flyers waive him down, someone picks him up.

[radoran]

I don't think you risk the half cap hit anymore, those were the re-entry waiver rules, I haven't found any reference to that under the new CBA. I do think that if the Flyers waive him down, someone picks him up.

Wasn't sure if the half cap hit still applied on regular waivers.

Regardless, I don't see him on the opening day roster. He would be a good (if expensive) security blanket if they get him to the A. If they lose him without a cap hit, that's even (IMO) better.

[Bertmega]

I hope this isn't another (dare I say) Upshall situation. They'll trade Meszaros, but have to throw in a 2nd just to shed salary. In return we get somebody like Adam Burish.

The sad thing is, there are 29 other GMs that happen to be aware of the Flyers situation regarding the cap. Any movement isn't going to come cheap.

[AJgoal]

And that may be how it goes. Flyers waive him and Gervais down to start the season, keep Gus and MAB up. Run with a 21-man roster on day one to clear additional cap space, since they don't play until day 2.

[AJgoal]

The Flyers situation regarding the cap is overstated. They have a lot of options. They do not NEED to make a trade, unless they intend to bring in someone else on a non-tryout contract.

[radoran]

The Flyers situation regarding the cap is overstated. They have a lot of options. They do not NEED to make a trade, unless they intend to bring in someone else on a non-tryout contract.

capgeek's projection has them $2M over the cap on opening day. That presumes Laughton and does represent 13 forwards (although it does not include Wellwood, who will have be on the roster as an injured player). That also includes 10 defensemen (with Pronger).

By all accounts the team is still looking to add Simon Gagne - which I have to believe will be somewhere above the vet minimum. As I understand the LTIR rules (happy to be corrected) Pronger is on the cap for Day One of the season and then goes on the LTIR.

Here was Meltzer's take on it being "easy" to get under the cap for the Flyers (July 3, post-VLC): http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog/Bill-Meltzer/Meltzers-Musings-Fitting-in-Lecavalier-Next-Steps/45/52510

Note that the "ease" is predicated in part on moving one of Coburn/Grossmann/Meszaros. Again, of the three, Meszaros would be the easiest (given no NTC and as a pending UFA that the Flyers can retain partial salary) to move.

Regardless of the cap, however, the question of carrying eight (drop Gervais, LTIR Pronger) defencemen isn't really a situation that's productive for the organization. Bourdon goes down, sure, but that's $612K. Whether they move Mesazaros (or "Defenseman X") to the A or another team, I do believe there is still a shoe to be dropped.

[AJgoal]

capgeek's projection has them $2M over the cap on opening day. That presumes Laughton and does represent 13 forwards (although it does not include Wellwood, who will have be on the roster as an injured player). That also includes 10 defensemen (with Pronger).

By all accounts the team is still looking to add Simon Gagne - which I have to believe will be somewhere above the vet minimum. As I understand the LTIR rules (happy to be corrected) Pronger is on the cap for Day One of the season and then goes on the LTIR.

Here was Meltzer's take on it being "easy" to get under the cap for the Flyers (July 3, post-VLC): http://www.hockeybuz...-Steps/45/52510

Note that the "ease" is predicated in part on moving one of Coburn/Grossmann/Meszaros. Again, of the three, Meszaros would be the easiest (given no NTC and as a pending UFA that the Flyers can retain partial salary) to move.

Regardless of the cap, however, the question of carrying eight (drop Gervais, LTIR Pronger) defencemen isn't really a situation that's productive for the organization. Bourdon goes down, sure, but that's $612K. Whether they move Mesazaros (or "Defenseman X") to the A or another team, I do believe there is still a shoe to be dropped.

Bourdon is not waiver exempt, so he probably stays up unless the Flyers are worried about his injury history and willing to bet it continues to be an issue. And no, the ease is not predicated solely on trading one of those contracts. If the Flyers feel there is low risk in waiving say, Rosehill and Hall, they can clear space. They can also choose not to sign Wellwood until after the season starts if he rejects his QO to keep his hit off the books (obviously he counts if he accepts). If they want to get rid of Meszaros and don't care if he's claimed, they just want his cap hit gone, they can waive him and clear 925k of his salary, or all of it if he's claimed. They don't have to trade him + a pick just to get rid of his salary. Then they can place Pronger on LTIR and recall enough salary to replace Pronger's on opening day, per the CBA. Until their first game, the roster layout as far as forwards and defensemen is irrelevant, they can do whatever they want postion-wise to make the cap work - by the time they play, they will have been able to make the adjustments. However, I do agree that it is in their best interest to trade a d-man to allow the youngsters to develop on the big club. However, it is not a cap imperative - though it is the most straightforward and possibly least risky move.