Rankings: The top 30 starting goalies in the NHL

[OccamsRazor]

A look around the league at who is guarding the nets and how they stack up...

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/nhl--rankings--the-top-30-starting-goalies-in-the-nhl-154114642.html

There’s nothing like a good goalie debate. And this is a debate about 30 good goalies, the 30 starting goalies in the NHL.

But first, a clarification. This is a ranking of the 30 No. 1 goalies in the NHL. Every team is represented once, no more and no less. Which means that there’s a few masked men who are not on this list who would certainly make the grade if it was a straight-up ranking of the NHL’s top 30 goalies. But it isn’t. It’s a ranking of the NHL’s top 30 starting goalies.

For example, perhaps you’ll notice that a certain all-time winningest NHL goalie isn’t listed. That’s right, we believe Cory Schneider will take over as New Jersey’s No. 1, supplanting 41-year-old legend Martin Brodeur. Of course, Martin being Martin, he’ll probably prove us wrong by winning 50 games and signing a new three-year contract. But unless he’s got a Dorian Gray portrait hidden in Lou Lamoriello’s office, Brodeur has to slow down sometime. Right…?

There are other notable omissions and difficult choices. We went with Brian Elliott over Jaroslav Halak (and up-and-coming puckstopper Jake Allen) in St. Louis. Despite his playoff implosion, we’re sticking with Marc-Andre Fleury over Tomas Vokun in Pittsburgh (although Fleury has tumbled down the rankings). Ben Bishop or Anders Lindback in Tampa Bay? (We picked Bishop.) Steve Mason or Ray Emery in Philadelphia? (Mason. Yes, Mason.) Is Jakob Markstrom ready in Florida? (Yes.)

And then there’s Miikka Kiprusoff. He hasn’t officially retired, but all signs indicate the longtime Flames netminder is calling it a career. So, we went with Karri Ramo as Calgary’s starter and the 27-year-old Finnish fill-in comes in at No. 30 on this list. Hey, somebody had to. Remember, it doesn’t mean he’s a bad goalie. Not for a minute. After all, Martin Brodeur, one of the very best goalies in the history of the game, didn’t even make the list.

And here we go, the NHL's top 30 starting goalies:

1. Jonathan Quick, Los Angeles

It’s always a debate, but the Kings goalie has been the NHL’s best puckstopper over the past few seasons.

2. Henrik Lundqvist, New York Rangers

Also a ‘King,’ he’s won the Rangers’ team MVP award seven straight seasons and is the standard by which other NHL goalies are measured (taking over from a certain Devils goalie who, we say again, does not appear on this list).

3. Pekka Rinne, Nashville

What’s that? You think the Predators netminder is the league’s best? Well, there’s a very good chance you’re absolutely right.

4. Tuukka Rask, Boston

The Bruins haven’t missed a beat since 2010 playoff MVP Tim Thomas packed up his mask and headed for the hills.Well, OK, perhaps Rask has one Final challenge left to match Thomas...

5. Sergei Bobrovsky, Columbus

A big surprise as the Blue Jackets goalie keyed Columbus’ rise to respectability and claimed the Vezina Trophy. Now, to do it all over again and prove it wasn't freak occurrence.

6. Mike Smith, Phoenix

The Coyotes haven’t had too many good-news stories in the past few years, but Smith’s emergence as an elite stopper is definitely one of them.

7. Carey Price, Montreal

Just when it looks like the Canadiens netminder has elevated his game and is ready to push for “best goalie” honors, he takes a step backwards like he did down the stretch and in the playoffs last season.

8. Antii Niemi, San Jose

Not overly flashy, just a quietly consistent winner who might deserve to be even higher on this list.

9. Roberto Luongo, Vancouver

Don’t forget to tune into the NHL’s most entertaining soap opera since Dallas (The Sean Avery Season.)

10. Cam Ward, Carolina

How valuable is the Hurricanes stopper? He was playoff MVP when they won the Cup in 2006, and Carolina went off the rails when Ward went down with injury last season.

11. Corey Crawford, Chicago

Blackhawks goalie receives the Rodney Dangerfield – that means he’s getting no respect, for you kids out there – after stellar season and leading Chicago to Stanley Cup. If he can perform at a similar level in 2013-14, Crawford will force his way into the top 10 and maybe higher.

12. Craig Anderson, Ottawa

The Senators goalie might have been the leading Vezina candidate when a sprained ankle derailed his season. Nevertheless, he had a 1.69 goals-against average and .941 save percentage in 24 games. If you’re into stats, those are outstanding numbers.

13. Cory Schneider, New Jersey

Talk about a guard-changer. Schneider took over as No. 1 from Luongo in Vancouver last season, and now he’s unseating Brodeur in New Jersey. What’s next, chasing Patrick Roy out of Colorado and going behind the bench?

14. Jonas Hiller, Anaheim

Like Niemi, Hiller loses out because he plays in California and doesn’t get the exposure. But he’s another guy who deserves to be in the top 10 conversation.

15. Kari Lehtonen, Dallas

A top prospect who took his time arriving as a full-fledged NHLer, Lehtonen has bloomed like a Texas rose (simile!) in the past couple of seasons with the Stars.

16. Ryan Miller, Buffalo

What to do with a problem like Miller? He was in the conversation for best goalie in the world less than two years ago, then got run over by Milan Lucic and hasn’t been the same since. To be fair, the Sabres haven’t given him a lot of support. It’s an Olympic year. Look for Miller to rebound in a big way.

17. Jimmy Howard, Detroit

He didn’t get much credit when the Red Wings were stacked, but Howard’s value has become more and more visible as the stars – especially Nicklas Lidstrom – have left Detroit.

18. Niklas Backstrom, Minnesota

The Wild folded in the playoffs when Backstrom was lost to injury in Game 1 warmups. He’s 35 and has logged a lot of games over the past seven seasons, but he remains as integral to Minnesota’s success as Zach Parise and Ryan Suter.

19. Brian Elliott, St. Louis

It’s been a platoon with Halak the past couple of seasons, with youngster Allen getting into the mix when injuries and poor play plagued the Blues’ top two goalies last year. But Elliott started in the playoffs and was solid despite six-game ouster against Kings in Round 1.

20. Braden Holtby, Washington

Capitals netminder is moving on up, he just needs a bigger sample size to establish his crease credentials.

21. James Reimer, Toronto

Jonathan Bernier might be in the Leafs net by the end of 2013-14, but Reimer is the team’s starter heading into the season after a solid bounce-back effort coming back from concussion and neck issues two years ago.

22. Marc-Andre Fleury, Pittsburgh

How the mighty have fallen. Fleury, who has flashed hot and cold throughout his career, completely unravelled in the playoffs (again) and ceded the starting job to Vokoun. No choice but to sink him in the rankings until the still-talented Penguins goalie rediscovers his game.

23. Ondrej Pavelec, Winnipeg

Like Fleury, Pavelec has struggled with consistency. When he’s on, he’s almost unbeatable. When he’s off, you want to cover your eyes. He turns 26 at the end of August; he’s still young and improving and should be in a higher position a year from now.

24. Devan Dubnyk, Edmonton

It hasn’t been easy to be an Oilers goalie for a number of years, and it’s even tougher when you’re thrown in and had to learn on-the-job. Dubnyk appeared to take a big step forward last season and – with a much better defense corps on a generally improving team – he has a chance to really establish his credentials in 2013-14.

25. Evgeni Nabokov, NY Islanders

A key to the Isles’ breakthrough return to the playoffs last season, Nabokov faltered a bit in the first round, allowing too many soft goals. All in all, he had a solid year, but at age 38 he’s got a lot of mileage and will be asked to play a lot of games. Can he keep up the pace?

26. Semyon Varlamov, Colorado

The Avs struggled and ended up in the West basement, dragging down Varlamov with them. Or was he part of the problem? Like several goalies on the bottom half of this list, the talent is there but it’s all about consistency.

27. Jakob Markstrom, Florida

The expectation is that Markstrom is part of the long-term answer to turning around a Panthers team that has mostly wandered in the non-playoff wilderness since a surprise appearance in the Stanley Cup Final as a third-year expansion team in 1996. Markstrom doesn't have much NHL experience, but he's got a great pedigree and the starting job is his to lose.

28. Steve Mason, Philadelphia

No doubt, Mason would be No. 30 on a lot of lists. A goalie who has struggled with confidence – and performance – enters the cross-hairs that is Philadelphia’s crease? No chance, right? Yet…call us crazy, but we have an inkling this might work out. Emery, who went 17-1-0 with Chicago last season, is also very much in the mix.

29. Ben Bishop, Tampa Bay

Biggie-sized stopper might be the goalie the Lighting have been waiting on. He’ll get a shot at No. 1 job, with last year’s hope Lindback also vying for the starting position. At the very least, the Bolts have about 13 feet of promising netminding talent in Bishop and Lindback.

30. Karri Ramo, Calgary

It looks like the Kiprusoff era is over in Calgary. Ramo is the leading candidate to take over. He’s had a few cups of coffee in the NHL over the years, ultimately ending up back in Europe. The Flames are desperately hoping he figures it out this time.

....well what say you.

Looks like there is some hope in Philly in net....better than last year for sure.

[Samifan]

I think you can make an arguement that either Mason or Emery could be ranked as high as #23. Seeing Bob ranked at #5 reminds me of what could have been and re-ignites my anger that the Flyers gave up on him too soon.

time to go take my anger out on the dog and kids......................

[jammer2]

Gotta fly right now, but just off the top of my head, Smith and Luongo are a tad to high and Holtby is to low....also, Schneider and Anderson are top 10 goalies in this league, so I'd put them in the spots Smith and Luongo presently occupy.

[yave1964]

I know I am a homer but Howard at 17?? Really? I see him as top 10,11 at least. And Anderson is too low, Price and Smith way to high. Just my opinion.

[yave1964]

my rankings:

1. Quick

2. Rinne

3. Lundquist

4. Anderson

5. Rask

6. Ward

7. Bob

8. Niemi

9. Howard

10. Price

11. Bobby Lu

12. Crawford

13. Mike Smith

14. Fleury

15. Schneider/Marty

16. Halak/Elliott

17. Reimer/Bernier

18. Holtby

19. Backstrom

20. Miller

21. Hiller

22. Varlamov

23. Pavalec

24. Lehtonen

25. Bishop

26. Dubnyk

27. Nabokov

28. Markstrom

29. Mason

30. Ramo/Mcdonald

[OccamsRazor]

Another good read about the goalies...

http://www.broadstre...ers-improvement

Every once in a while I see discussions/arguments about the remains of Steve Mason's potential as a starting goalie in the NHL pop up in various places. In the comments here, on Twitter, wherever it may be. I saw a few come up this past Friday in light of this Yahoo! ranking of starting NHL goalies that placed him at 28th out of 30 (while also saying that they "have an inkling [Mason] might work out") and this follow-up from philly.com which suggested that "Mason deserves to be a little higher than 28th".

Generally, most of those discussions have the same structure. People who think he still has a chance say that he still has time to get his confidence back and that he's only now turning 25, which is still young enough for a goalie to prove himself. Meanwhile, people who don't think he has a chance point to the fact that, despite his age, he's played in the NHL for five seasons now and has been bad for about three-quarters of that time (his rookie season and the last month of this past season being the exceptions), and that all the confidence in the world doesn't matter if you aren't actually any good at what you're doing.

I can't say a whole lot about Mason's confidence. I've written before about work ethic questions surrounding him, and we can hope that he's actively trying to improve there, but I try not to speculate a ton about athlete's mental states when I can't see inside their minds. Maybe there's something there, maybe there isn't, but it's probably useless for us to speculate on.

But we can look at whether or not goalies around his age, as well as goalies who we've already seen play multiple seasons in the league, generally have room for potential improvement.

Since 1996-97 (the season since which average save percentages have stayed above .900) there are twelve goalies who (a.) faced at least 3000 shots in their careers up through their age-24 seasons** and (b.) faced at least 3000 shots in their careers in the years after their age-24 seasons. Here's how those splits look for each of them. (All data regular-season only.)

(see chart)

First, the positives:

* There's a wide variety of results there, ranging from "much improved" to "slightly worse", but more often than not, these guys have done a little bit better since their age-24 seasons than they had before/during them. Eight of the 12 guys listed posted better save percentages after that season, and as a whole the group improved by .0035 after it.

* Even for the guys who faced a ton of shots before 25 (similar to Mason, who's faced 6,768 shots in his career to date) the trend is generally positive, if not even moreso. Cam Ward, Marc-Andre Fleury and Roberto Luongo, put together, averaged a .911 through their age-24 seasons and have collectively posted a .918 since. In fact, Fleury and Ward were two of the guys who've improved most in those seasons. The fact that we've already seen a lot of Mason (relative to the rest of the list) doesn't mean he's disqualified from getting any better.

So if someone says "Mason still has time to improve", they're not wrong. There's certainly precedent for players in similar situations having done the same thing.

But there are some important qualifiers here, too:

* Generally speaking, save percentages have gone up over this timeframe in question (with a reset around the first season post-lockout), particularly for the guys who have done most of their work in the last decade or so. So if you're looking at a marginal rise in save percentages between an earlier timeframe and a later one, it's possible that league-wide trends are a big part of the cause.

* While a save percentage bump of .0035 isn't meaningless, that bump isn't going to take a bad goalie and make him a good one. If Steve Mason improves by that much and plays like a .908 goalie for the rest of his career, that's still not much more than the level of a decent backup/very low-end starter. Certainly not something that will (or, at the very least, should) make the Flyers want to keep him around long-term.

* Even if these improvements are real and significant, and even if we can expect Mason to be a .908 or so goalie for the rest of his career (which is not even close to a sure bet), they still don't necessarily predict what will happen in the span of the 2013-14 season. There's enough volatility in single-year goaltending results that he may end up well below or above that mark in any given year.

So even though I ultimately think both sides of the hypothetical Steve Mason argument (as described above) have a point, there's certainly a limit that leads me closer to the "he's just not going to turn into a starter" side. It's true that his book hasn't been closed yet. He very well could still improve, and it's feasible to think or even expect that he will do so a small bit -- enough that he won't be a total disaster.

But the expected improvement probably isn't even enough to even get him to the "low-end starter" threshold, let alone "good goalie", and he'd need to well-outperform some historical averages in order to get there. And even if he's going to improve, he's far from a sure bet to show that potential improvement this season.

[yave1964]

Living in Ohio an hour north of Nationwide I get to quite a few Jacket games, we actually have maintained a partial season ticket pack to insure we got Wings games. (This year we are not renewing with the new alignment).

Mason. I have watched him for years, his out of nowhere rookie season where he reminded me of Barrasso, and then his plummet fro the face of the earth.

I argued the case between him and Bob on here last year, going as far to agree with folks that Mason might be the most talented between the two of them, but I insisted if any goalie ever needed a change of scenery it was Mason. I finally said that Mason might be the better goalie but bob was the better goalie for the Jackets.

He has his change of scenery. He needs continuity, it seems like at least once a year he got a new goalie coach with a new philosophy. I still believe Mason has something to offer in the right situation, splitting time with Emery, getting forty percent or so of the starts is huge for him, I believe Emery will handle the bulk of the starts based off last year, but Mason is a capable netminder still IMHO. Will he ever be as good as his amazing rookie season? No, don't be silly. That was a perfect storm of Hitchcock creating a team first situation. Will he be as bad as the last few seasons? I don't believe so, no. A quality mid level semi starter is still a nice piece in the right situation, and in Philly he should be fine.

[OccamsRazor]

I argued the case between him and Bob on here last year, going as far to agree with folks that Mason might be the most talented between the two of them, but I insisted if any goalie ever needed a change of scenery it was Mason.

It will do him some good i'm cautiously optimistic!!!!!

For now i'll be happy with a guy who makes the saves he should make and yes some spectacular ones sprinkled here and there wouldn't hurt...and a break away stop or two either would be nice good lord Bryz sure couldn't make one.

Philly is tough on their goalies but winning solves everything!!!

A break with injuries wouldn't be a bad thing...