They should rename the city Emonton......

[yave1964]

They should rename the city Emonton because they have no 'D'.....

My take on the 2013-14 Edmonton Oilers

Help is on the way in terms of blue line help, if not quite the same quality as the young forwards, at least help nonetheless.

What a tough organization to figure out. Lots of talent, top heavy at the forward position, trading the long time captain may be addition by subtraction, a solid unspectacular free agent haul, they could finnish anywhere from second to sixth in their own division.

Lets start with the free agents. Boyd Gordon came from the Coyotes, an amazing shut down center who always seemed to be playing inside of Datsyuk's jersey whenever we played the Yotes. Great pickup. Ferrence is a solid stabilizing force who will work with Schultz and allow him to grow. David Perron is as good of a 200 feet player as their is in the game.

So They improved their defense and offense at the same time while drafting Darnell Nurse who is considered a future blue line stud and clearing long term players like Horcoff, Peckham and Khabibulin off the books. Mactavish seems to have a plan. Hemsky is being dangled for a top four blueliner like he is every year.

The kids have to grow up now. Gagner was resigned to a solid contract, he is still a kid even though it seems he has been here forever and is loaded with talent. Eberle, Hall Yakupov and the Nuge must ll step up now, it is their team. Replacing Horcoff with the wonderful team first Perron was brilliant.

Still a lot of holes on the bottom lines, Gordon is under the radar but Petrell and Lander need to step it up.

Defense is still in flux, Larson came over from the Stars after being pushed around too easily, hopes to get back on track. Smid is established as has Petry, Ference is the perfect quiet business like compliment to Schultz as he grows. Overall though this is a very thin crop that is an injury or two away from being an AHL squad.

I do not see Devon Dubnyk as an NHL regular goaltender for a championship quality team and have been surprised that they have stuck with him. Labarbara and Bachman are okay backups but that is it, I don't believe this team can be taken seriously until they do something in net. Having forwards who act as d-men like Perron and Gordon will help but not enough.

So more skilled young forwards than any team in the game, a smart offseason haul and subtracting the right guys helps but I frankly still see them as on the outside looking in this year, I see them built a lot like the Avalanche but slightly better forwards and defense but worse goaltending. I could see an 8-7 game between those two this year.

Not quite enough but getting real, real close.

[flyercanuck]

I thought there was going to be a mention of the team listening to some sappy pathetic music.

[hf101]

@yave1964

Of all teams, I really thought Edmonton would make a trade for Halak. Maybe that is a trade that takes place once the season starts, but imo all Edmonton needs to make a playoff push is consistency between the pipes.

[jammer2]

@hf101 Dubnyk needs to step up this year. He showed progress this past year, he needs to continue that. I have doubts as to whether he is the guy per say, but it looks like they are willing to find out....but I do think hes on a short leash.

[JR Ewing]

Random thoughts in point-form:

-Dubnyk is coming off two consecutive years as a league average goalie. He's neither the solution nor the problem so far.

-Lennart Petrell is gone, thankfully. Brutal ES player.

JR

[yave1964]

Random thoughts in point-form:

-Dubnyk is coming off two consecutive years as a league average goalie. He's neither the solution nor the problem so far.

-Lennart Petrell is gone, thankfully. Brutal ES player.

JR

I have always been a believer that if you are not part of the solution you are part of the problem.....

[JR Ewing]

I have always been a believer that if you are not part of the solution you are part of the problem.....

Ok, let's work with that. The question then becomes "Is Devan Dubnyk the problem?"

Year SV% Lg Avg
2013 .921 .909
2012 .914 .911
2011 .916 .910

We could compare this to how the Oilers have fared in CorsiFor% during the same period:

2013 - 29th

2012 - 28th

2011 - 27th

So, we have a situation where the team has a goalie who was clearly above league average last year, and slightly above the two seasons before. I don't think that's nearly the problem compared to the fact that their CorsiFor% shows that they just don't carry enough of the play, and spend too much time in their own end. That's the big problem facing facing the Oilers.

By all means, they could improve the goaltending; I don't disagree. I also don't really see a championship team building themselves around Devan Dubnyk. I don't think Craig MacTavish does either, or he wouldn't have tried so hard for Corey Schneider.

But, do the Oilers have bigger fish to fry? Bigger problems than Devan Dubnyk? Yes, in my honest opinion.

JR

[yave1964]

Ok, let's work with that. The question then becomes "Is Devan Dubnyk the problem?"

Year SV% Lg Avg
2013 .921 .909
2012 .914 .911
2011 .916 .910

We could compare this to how the Oilers have fared in CorsiFor% during the same period:

2013 - 29th

2012 - 28th

2011 - 27th

So, we have a situation where the team has a goalie who was clearly above league average last year, and slightly above the two seasons before. I don't think that's nearly the problem compared to the fact that their CorsiFor% shows that they just don't carry enough of the play, and spend too much time in their own end. That's the big problem facing facing the Oilers.

By all means, they could improve the goaltending; I don't disagree. I also don't really see a championship team building themselves around Devan Dubnyk. I don't think Craig MacTavish does either, or he wouldn't have tried so hard for Corey Schneider.

But, do the Oilers have bigger fish to fry? Bigger problems than Devan Dubnyk? Yes, in my honest opinion.

JR

Very nice write up, thanks!!

IMHO the Oilers DO have bigger fish to fry and addressed quite a few of them with the signing of Ference, Gordon and the trade for Perron, Defensive minded players all. This is still a very poor blue line, Neither you nor I are big fans of plus/minus as a be all end all but Schultz was wretched in his own end last season, he has a ton of upside and a few others in the system will be solid NHLers eventually and guys like Smid and Petry wont hurt you, but this defense is woeful. Yes I know nobody wanted to come up off of blueliners this offseason but the Oilers may be better served packaging one of their studly young forwards and acquiring the top pair d-man they desperately need so Schultz can grow at a more comfortable pace.

I know a large portion of goaltending is defense, hell Osgood for my Wings won a couple of cups but that had more to do with the guys in front of him than anything. Dubnyk in the right system could be a Corey Crawford, a system goalie backed up by a great team who ala Osgood or Crawford wins a cup because of the team around him. But what this team needs is a superior netminder, I don't blame the Canucks for not dealing Schneider to a division rival even though from what I heard Mactavish made the superior offer, and the Mike Smiths of the world were resigned by their team, but I really do not see this team as anything more than a outside looking in or sneaking in and being a first round out as presently constituted and Dubnyk is the wrong goalie for the team at this time.

[JR Ewing]

Very nice write up, thanks!!

IMHO the Oilers DO have bigger fish to fry and addressed quite a few of them with the signing of Ference, Gordon and the trade for Perron, Defensive minded players all. This is still a very poor blue line, Neither you nor I are big fans of plus/minus as a be all end all but Schultz was wretched in his own end last season, he has a ton of upside and a few others in the system will be solid NHLers eventually and guys like Smid and Petry wont hurt you, but this defense is woeful. Yes I know nobody wanted to come up off of blueliners this offseason but the Oilers may be better served packaging one of their studly young forwards and acquiring the top pair d-man they desperately need so Schultz can grow at a more comfortable pace.

I know a large portion of goaltending is defense, hell Osgood for my Wings won a couple of cups but that had more to do with the guys in front of him than anything. Dubnyk in the right system could be a Corey Crawford, a system goalie backed up by a great team who ala Osgood or Crawford wins a cup because of the team around him. But what this team needs is a superior netminder, I don't blame the Canucks for not dealing Schneider to a division rival even though from what I heard Mactavish made the superior offer, and the Mike Smiths of the world were resigned by their team, but I really do not see this team as anything more than a outside looking in or sneaking in and being a first round out as presently constituted and Dubnyk is the wrong goalie for the team at this time.

Well, I know that I'd sure as hell like to see some position-by-position improvements on the blueline. They still lack a quality top guy who belongs in that spot, rather than having the minutes handed to him because he's the best they have. I think that Smid and Petry re complimentary defensemen, and am not bullish on them still being the top dogs. Perhaps if Justin Schultz can take a big step, he can be that guy, but that's a really lousy bet to make. If I'm a GM, I'm going to be a pessimist, never assume I'll see huge improvement, and plan accordingly.

Also:

-Not big on the Oilers keeping Ryan Jones around. He's living proof that hustle can have a large impact on the impression you give as a player, but he's still terribly ineffective and cheats for offense. I think he's a bottom of the roster guy with some skill, but NOT a two-way player. Would much rather see a free agent like Dan Cleary getting those minutes.

-I'm uncomfortable with the lack of depth up the middle, and would rather bring in a more proven veteran than Anton Lander. Lander will never be an offense player, and does have some defensive skills, but again: don't bank on those things all coming to fruition in the toughest league in the world. I'd rather make a low cost risk on a cheap veteran with a track record of being able to take tough zone starts.

-Would dearly love to get rid of Mike Brown.

-I also don't see this as a playoff team yet.

JR

[goalnut3133]

@JR Ewing Thanx for the stats on Dubnyk...I've always liked watching him & thought he was a pretty good G for a make-shift team in front...

[yave1964]

@JR Ewing

You mentioned Cleary, as a Wings fan I have watched his skill level go down for two years in a row as his knees are shot but his intensity and desire are still up there, and his battles with Bickel in the playoffs (The two REALLY were the top battle in the West for the entire postseason IMHO) prove that he still can bring it. I agree with Jones, too many holes in his game and Mike Brown is worthless. If you were to dip into your amazing stable of young forwards, as a Oiler fan to trade for a top pair d-man, lets say a Yandle who is rumored to be on the block for a top line forward, who would it be? Gagner is a solid top six guy, Yakupov is unproven but didn't embarrass himself last year, Hall has to be untouchable, Nuge was off his game but has huge upside, and then you have Eberle. IDK, something has to give, I personally think Eberle could bring a huge return but that would force Nuge into a top line center spot and while I think he can and will do that down the road I am not so sure about right now. Tough position for your boys but any team in the game would kill to have your top five forwards....

[goalnut3133]

Hall has to be untouchable, Nuge was off his game but has huge upside, and then you have Eberle. IDK, something has to give, I personally think Eberle could bring a huge return but that would force Nuge into a top line center spot and while I think he can and will do that down the road I am not so sure about right now.

Yah, I agree, & myself, I wouldn't touch Eberle either...just too much power-train & potential going on with these top guys. They should be a match-set.

Tough position for your boys but any team in the game would kill to have your top five forwards....

Yah, certain teams, like..um, oh I dunno...say....

[JR Ewing]

@JR Ewing

You mentioned Cleary, as a Wings fan I have watched his skill level go down for two years in a row as his knees are shot but his intensity and desire are still up there, and his battles with Bickel in the playoffs (The two REALLY were the top battle in the West for the entire postseason IMHO) prove that he still can bring it. I agree with Jones, too many holes in his game and Mike Brown is worthless. If you were to dip into your amazing stable of young forwards, as a Oiler fan to trade for a top pair d-man, lets say a Yandle who is rumored to be on the block for a top line forward, who would it be? Gagner is a solid top six guy, Yakupov is unproven but didn't embarrass himself last year, Hall has to be untouchable, Nuge was off his game but has huge upside, and then you have Eberle. IDK, something has to give, I personally think Eberle could bring a huge return but that would force Nuge into a top line center spot and while I think he can and will do that down the road I am not so sure about right now. Tough position for your boys but any team in the game would kill to have your top five forwards....

-Cleary:. If he could be signed to a bargain deal, I think he has some time left in him. Had the second-toughest zone starts in DET last season, was a possession positive player even though he had some bad puck luck (PDO of only 968). A one-year deal signed at a low salary could be a bet which pays off long, since it seems tough to believe he'll go from delivering quality minutes to nothing overnight..

-Yakupov: I wouldn't deal him at this stage of his career for anything other than a gross overpay. I don't think anybody would want to pony up a prime age top pairing defenseman for somebody so young. I think they have to let him ride, and besides... In my honest opinion, he'll be a more dangerous player than Jordan Eberle. He put up a very nice rookie year, and only played his natural position for the last 20% of the season. It was night and day, the difference between his effectiveness on RW as compared to LW.

http://stats.hockeya...2012-13&sit=5v5

Other than Sam Gagner and Ales Hemsky, with whom Yakupov played LW, every one of his teammates scored more with him on the ice. It's not every rookie who does that at that age.

-Hall: yes, definitely untouchable.

-Nugent-Hopkins: had big issues with his should last year (and since he played in Red Deer, actually), so that couldn't have helped his offense. One thing about him that didn't get a lot of notice last year: his play without the puck improved at a staggering rate. Looking forward to what he may be capable of if a little more healthy, but everything is still nicely in the same direction as before. I don't think he'll be the ES monster that Hall already is, but rHop is a PP savant. What is forgotten (I don't mean by you) sometimes is young Hopkins was for a #1 pick; he's almost two years younger than Taylor Hall (who has a late birthday, like most 1st round picks). He just turned 20 after the season ended; unreal.

I think we can expect a bounce-back from him as far as goals is concerned. His shooting percentage was only 5.1% last year, and SH% regresses heavily to the mean on a yearly basis.

One note: was already playing 1C for the last two years, and Eberle has been his RW during that time.

JR

Edited August 2, 2013 by JR Ewing

[yave1964]

@JR Ewing

Klefbom is not ready Nurse is a ways away but both are blue chippers from what I have read, Musil looks like a big Alberta arm boy who is a defense first player with offensive upside down the road. Beyond that I don't know who you guys have down on the farm. Too bad these kids aren't the same place as your forwards right now.

[JR Ewing]

@JR Ewing

Klefbom is not ready Nurse is a ways away but both are blue chippers from what I have read, Musil looks like a big Alberta arm boy who is a defense first player with offensive upside down the road. Beyond that I don't know who you guys have down on the farm. Too bad these kids aren't the same place as your forwards right now.

-Nurse: is absolutely not ready.

-Klefbom: the best place he can go is almost assuredly the AHL, but MacTavish seems to feel he's ready to challenge for an NHL job. I really don't know about that. Physically, he's ready to play in the NHL, and from all reports, he was becoming a dominant defenseman in Sweden, up until his injury last year. And that, for me, is a big issue. He hasn't played hockey in quite awhile now. He's been playing against men since he was 16, and has surely learned a lot more than many kids his age, but I don't think it would hurt to let him get used to North American away from NHL shooters.

If I were to rank the Oilers prospects on the blueline, it would look something like:

• Oscar Klefbom - an all-around, two-way defenseman. I *love* players with a well-rounded game and that's the word on him.
  
• Darnell Nurse - physical and mean, will have to get bigger. He played some of the toughest minutes in the CHL. (tougher than Seth Jones, for example).
  
• Martin Marincin - big lanky guy. Puck mover. Made big strides in his defensive game in the AHL last year. Scored just as much without Justin Schultz as with. Very good news.
  
• Martin Gernat - puck moving defenseman with size. Like lots his age, needs to work on his play without the puck. Needs work.
  
• Taylor Fedun - getting a little bit old to call a prospect, but breaking his femur really set him back, so I think it's fair to include him here. Plays in all situations in AHL, and was good.
  
• David Musil - his skating issues persist, but he can play defense at a very high level already. Quick NHL wingers would eat him alive if he can't skate better.
  
• Dillon Simpson - likely would have been drafted a lot earlier if he'd been a CHLer rather than skipping right from the AJHL to the University of North Dakota a year early. Could be better than most think.
  
• Brandon Davidson - played well after he came back from the cancer treatment, but stuff like that is tough to overcome at this point of a player's development.
  

So, I don't know how things will work out other than to say that at a few of those guys will be busts. Just the way it is. Klefbom, Nurse and Marincin represent their best young defensemen, though, and are very nice pieces going forward. The problem is, as you said, that they lag behind the forwards.

JR