News Article The Oilers Top 6: Fix It

[JR Ewing]

Thanks to jammer for catching this one:

I'm of the opinion Oilers GM Craig MacTavish shouldn't be done making moves this summer. We're not talking about anything as dramatic as the Paajarvi for Perron deal, but almost just as important. The Oilers Bottom 6, which was terrible last season, hasn't been improved. Oh, it will look different, but be better?

Here's where we stand as of now:

Out - Shawn Horcoff, Lennart Petrell, Jerred Smithson, Eric Belanger, Teemu Hartikainen

In - Boyd Gordon, Jesse Joensuu

So who might be in the Bottom 6 this season? Gordon, Joensuu, Ryan Jones, Ryan Smyth, Mike Brown, Ben Eager, Anton Lander, and Ales Hemsky

Yick.

As much as I ripped on Shawn Horcoff constantly, Gordon is not a better center. He's a different type of center, and his cap hit is much lower...but better? Horcoff did a good job playing two-way hockey against some pretty good lines last season. He had value and Gordon has work to do to fill Horcoff's skates.

Ales Hemsky has plenty of talent as we all know, but is he a third-line, two way winger? Not remotely. He's stuck with us until we can deal him. His contract might expire first before a deal happens...

Rest of the article:

http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog.php?post_id=53137&blogger_id=131#.Uf872qzd4uc

JR

[JR Ewing]

There's parts of this article I couldn't disagree more with:

As much as I ripped on Shawn Horcoff constantly, Gordon is not a better center. He's a different type of center, and his cap hit is much lower...but better? Horcoff did a good job playing two-way hockey against some pretty good lines last season. He had value and Gordon has work to do to fill Horcoff's skates.

This doesn't even make sense. He begins by talking about how Gordon and Horcoff are different types of centers, and then identified their jobs: THE EXACT SAME ROLE. Each were used as tough-minute centers playing against good lines. So, does Gordon fill those shoes?

Zone Starts: Horcoff was given the 2nd toughest Zone Starts among Oilers centers last season, at 42.1%, while Gordon had (by far) the toughest on the Coyotes: 32.6%.

Gordon 1, Horcoff 0

Faceoffs: each were given tough starts, tasked by their coach to win the draw so they could get the puck moving out of their zone. In every situation which is measured, this is a massive advantage for Gordon.

Horcoff: http://stats.tabita....r/shawn_horcoff

Gordon: http://stats.tabita....yer/boyd_gordon

Gordon 2, Horcoff 0

Quality of Competition: Gordon saw exceptionally tough opposition: 9th toughest among NHL centers last season. Horcoff? 108th. This one is a no contest.

Gordon 3, Horcoff 0

Relative Corsi: this is our possession metric, which we can use to see who moved the puck out of their zone and away from their end. It's the primary role of the tough minutes center. Horcoff: -4.4, Gordon: +0.6. So, starting next to his own net most of the time, and against MUCH tougher opposition, Gordon's line still carried more of the play than their opponent. Horcoff had a tough minutes role against easier opposition, but was possession negative, surrendering more chances against.

Gordon 4, Horcoff 0

Offense: Horcoff scored 1.34 P/60, while Gordon scored at a clip of 1.18 P/60. That works out to around 22 ES points over 82 games for Horcoff and 19 for Gordon, which is a pretty small difference. The advantage goes to Horcoff here, but with a big qualifier: Horcoff's two most common wingers were Nail Yakupov and Taylor Hall, while Boyd Gordon's were David Moss and Robin Klinkhammer. I have to think that Horcoff's wingers account for more than a 3 point difference.

Gordon 4, Horcoff 1

I just don't get Cloutier here. He identified Horcoff's and Gordon's roles as the same and then talked about how Gordon has a long way to go in order to fill Horcoff's skates, but even a cursory glance shows you that it isn't the case. Based on recent history, and especially given their relative age and salary, Gordon is an upgrade in almost every conceivable way.

TLDR - Cloutier's point about Gordon and Horcoff was obtuse.

JR

Edited August 5, 2013 by JR Ewing

[JR Ewing]

Ales Hemsky has plenty of talent as we all know, but is he a third-line, two way winger? Not remotely. He's stuck with us until we can deal him. His contract might expire first before a deal happens.

In the comments section, Cloutier filled in more of his take on Hemsky:

Ales Hemsky is a talented player who belongs in a Top 6 group. He's not a hitter; he's a swift-skating creative playmaker that would be an upgrade offensively for several teams. The Oilers need big wingers who hit in the bottom 6. Two-way players. Hemsky doesn't bring that. So even though he's a talented guy who absolutely has value, he's not a fit for the Oilers Top 6 or Bottom 6.

I've been watching hockey my entire life, and ever since I reached the age of reason, I have never understood this line of thinking. Can we all agree that the best hockey players are the ones who drive play north, who get the puck moving in the right direction and create chances at the other end? Then, what is the obsession with trying to pigeon hole guys into a player type, and then engineering the team to attempt to fit this narrow description of what a player should be?

-Then, what the hell could be better than having a RW with a career CorsiRel of +9.5 in that role? Hemsky gets the puck, gets it out of his end, and creates chances at the opposite end of the ice.

-He's done this against tough opposition: every coach he had matched him against possession positive players, and Hemsk'ys come out on top.

-You know what "big wingers who hit" means? It means the opposition has the puck more often.

GMs who look for a player of a certain type, rather than a player of certain quality are the ones who wonder why they don't get bang for their bucks, and are constantly stuck spinning their wheels.

JR