Let's Pretend Homer Had Patience...

[radoran]

radoran noticed this in the writeup that we put together and was not at all pleased with their "strategy" I was surprised that he was the only 1 to comment on this. 

 

Nevertheless I think that this is one of the root problems with and why the Flyers do what they do.  They figure as long as they get in they have a chance so they just worry about this year now and future years later.    

 

This was your cogent distillation of the Flyers' "plan" from that thread:

 

1. It is hard to score in this league due to the cap

2. It is hard to win due to the cap

3. Just get into the playoffs and anything can happen 

 

And here were the numbers....

 

Flyers' Goals For Average

2.73 (9th)

3.12 (3rd)

3.08 (T-2nd)

2.80 (T - 7th)

3.12 (T - 4th)

2.95 (6th)

Yes, this team that has management that apparently believes it is "hard to score" because of the cap hasn't been out of the top 10 Goals For teams in the past six years.

Now, Goals Against Average:

2.87 (23rd)

2.70 (20th)

2.60 (11th)

2.68 (15th)

2.78 (T - 15th)

2.73 (18th)

3.58 (30th)

The problem, it would seem, isn't scoring enough it's stopping the puck. Much like a certain baseball GM reacted to his team failing in the playoffs because they couldn't hit enough by strengthening pitching, the Flyers seem to continually be addressing a problem - scoring - that doesn't exist while giving short shrift to a problem that does - stopping the puck.

One might point out that the team was steadily improving in actually stopping the puck when management decided to blow the whole thing up and restructure around a goalie because being 11th in the league in GAA was a "problem" that simply had to be addressed with a franchise-crippling move that could only be erased by losing half a season of hockey. In the two years thereafter, the team dropped into the lowest third in GAA.

But will a team that believes it's "hard to score because of the cap" be able to address the real problem effectively?

As for the "get into the playoffs" mantra, who are the real "surprise" Finalists in the post-Cap era?

We can go with Carolina and Edmonton in year 1.

Anaheim over Ottawa

Red Wings over Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh over Red Wings

Chicago over Flyers

Bruins over Canucks

Kings over Devils

Chicago over Bruins

That's five out of sixteen "surprise" Finalists, two of whom won the Cup. (Let's also throw in that LA added two important cogs of a Finals run from just two seasons before).

.312 (5 of 16 Finalists) is a great average in baseball, but a pretty poor way to evaluate whether "just making the playoffs and anything can happen" is a valid theory.

.250 (2 of 8 Cup winners) is a pretty middling baseball average, and certainly not a stat I would use to validate a "just make the playoffs" position.

I'd go with the 75% chance of being a team that is expected to be in the Final winning the Cup.

 

But I'm just here coaching from the couch, so...

[krasy]

He doesn't sign Shea Weber to an offer sheet, Weber isn't locked in in Nashville for the rest of his life, he's now a UFA. Instead of signing one dimensional Mark Streit for 4 years at 5.25 per (AND a 35 year old contract) and "didn't you USED to be" Dan Cleary to a 3 year 2.75 he'd have EIGHT million per year for the Shea Weber fund.

 

 Gee, wonder what single player would be much better for the Flyers than the other two?

 

 Just once I'd like to see a plan.

 

You mean like he (Holmgren) signed" Ryan Suter

There is no guarantee that Weber will choose us over 29 other teams. He did his best. I still think that statisticaly Predator matching offer-sheet this big gives us bigger chance then Weber hitting open market. Just look at Letang new contract.

[flyercanuck]

He doesn't sign Shea Weber to an offer sheet, Weber isn't locked in in Nashville for the rest of his life, he's now a UFA. Instead of signing one dimensional Mark Streit for 4 years at 5.25 per (AND a 35 year old contract) and "didn't you USED to be" Dan Cleary to a 3 year 2.75 he'd have EIGHT million per year for the Shea Weber fund.

 

 Gee, wonder what single player would be much better for the Flyers than the other two?

 

 Just once I'd like to see a plan.

[flyerrod]

I swear Homer said something like...... "Puff, Puff....Hey Clarkie..*giggles* Watch me screw over Nashville for the next 15 years!!"......(Insert mental image of Beavis and Butt head laughing uncontrollably with Homer screaming " I am CORNHOLIO!!!!!!!!"

[Hexy27]

I still feel that Homer should have taken the fall for last season.  I just wonder if the impatience is due to Homer or to the organization.  In other words can any GM come in and change the way the Flyers do things?

[DaGreatGazoo]

I still feel that Homer should have taken the fall for last season.  I just wonder if the impatience is due to Homer or to the organization.  In other words can any GM come in and change the way the Flyers do things?

 

I have a feeling we are going to get an answer to that question in a year or two.  

[JackStraw]

He doesn't sign Shea Weber to an offer sheet, Weber isn't locked in in Nashville for the rest of his life, he's now a UFA. Instead of signing one dimensional Mark Streit for 4 years at 5.25 per (AND a 35 year old contract) and "didn't you USED to be" Dan Cleary to a 3 year 2.75 he'd have EIGHT million per year for the Shea Weber fund.

 

 Gee, wonder what single player would be much better for the Flyers than the other two?

 

 Just once I'd like to see a plan.

What is this thing called "plan" of which you speak?

[murraycraven]

Man to I get the frustration around a lack of plan... this is my #1 gripe with this Organ-I-zation and has been for a long time.  To be honest I was starting to feel a little more positive this offseason - I am shocked that one of Schenn, Cooter or Read did not get traded for a has-been or over-valued defensmen.  

 

I am still baffled by the Cleary signing and can not make heads or tails of it.  I really like Cleary and do think he makes this Team better but why would you sign him to a 3 yr deal at that much is just mind numbing.   Then to throw in a NTC!  I think Cleary will help this Team more than Gagne but it appears Homer already has a full case of beer but he is trying to cram more bottles into the case - it is already full Homer!

 

I had hopes w/ Hextall coming over and I guess time will tell but I have never seen a strategy/plan with the Flyers.   It is a continuation of the Clarkie mentality IMO.  I don't think it will ever end...

 

Who knows... maybe there is a deal in the works but this just reeks of throwing poo at the wall and hoping it sticks...  never a dull moment.

[pilldoc]

He doesn't sign Shea Weber to an offer sheet, Weber isn't locked in in Nashville for the rest of his life, he's now a UFA. Instead of signing one dimensional Mark Streit for 4 years at 5.25 per (AND a 35 year old contract) and "didn't you USED to be" Dan Cleary to a 3 year 2.75 he'd have EIGHT million per year for the Shea Weber fund.

 

 Gee, wonder what single player would be much better for the Flyers than the other two?

 

 Just once I'd like to see a plan.

Now that is a real thought provoking question.  I for one don't believe one iona that Weber wants to play in Nashville.  He would have been ripe for the picking.  So Weber come here during the off-season. Striet and Clary are not needed.  Does Vinny still get signed?  Kimmo is on the last year of his contract.  We don't worry as much about the blue line.

 

Weber  / L. Schenn

Timmo / Coburn

Guss / Grossman / (or Mez if healthy or trade him away for picks if possible)

MAB (or Lauridsen)

 

I would be happy with line-up.

 

then next year when Kimmo retires:

 

Weber / L. Schenn

Coburn / Guss

Grossman / Lauridsen

MAB or Morin/Alt (I liked what I saw in the rookie game)

 

Now you are slowly working the younger guys into the line-up with Weber there to help develop these guys.

 

Now the question is, would Weber rebound from having a sub-par year last year or does he jsut miss his partner in crime in the likes  of Ryan Suter.  I feel confident that had Homer not offered Weber an offered sheet last year he would be a Flyer right now. Very interesting "What if scenario".

 

However that is not the Flyer way and Homer went with trying to hit a home-run last year and was screwed when the Preds had to match the offer.

Edited September 11, 2013 by pilldoc

[Poulin20]

Man to I get the frustration around a lack of plan... this is my #1 gripe with this Organ-I-zation and has been for a long time.

 

I had hopes w/ Hextall coming over and I guess time will tell but I have never seen a strategy/plan with the Flyers.   It is a continuation of the Clarkie mentality IMO.  I don't think it will ever end...

 

Who knows... maybe there is a deal in the works but this just reeks of throwing poo at the wall and hoping it sticks...  never a dull moment.

 

The STH townhall was very eye opening to me that the mentality is that we just need to get to the playoffs and see what happens.  This was an Organ-I-zation wide mentality too it is not just Homer.  Even Hexy said as much.  I think that there approach is to just get in the playoffs and see what kind of tweaks they can make along the way.  While I do believe there is luck involved in winning I think that they are relying too much on this notion and that they could do more to put themselves in the best position possible to minimize the impact of "luck".  radoran noticed this in the writeup that we put together and was not at all pleased with their "strategy" I was surprised that he was the only 1 to comment on this. 

 

Nevertheless I think that this is one of the root problems with and why the Flyers do what they do.  They figure as long as they get in they have a chance so they just worry about this year now and future years later.    

[pilldoc]

The STH townhall was very eye opening to me that the mentality is that we just need to get to the playoffs and see what happens.  This was an Organ-I-zation wide mentality too it is not just Homer.  Even Hexy said as much.  I think that there approach is to just get in the playoffs and see what kind of tweaks they can make along the way.  While I do believe there is luck involved in winning I think that they are relying too much on this notion and that they could do more to put themselves in the best position possible to minimize the impact of "luck".  radoran noticed this in the writeup that we put together and was not at all pleased with their "strategy" I was surprised that he was the only 1 to comment on this. 

 

Nevertheless I think that this is one of the root problems with and why the Flyers do what they do.  They figure as long as they get in they have a chance so they just worry about this year now and future years later.    

Agree.  It is always an "All in mentality".  At somepoint someone in this organization has to sit back and say this is just not working.  Just because there are examples out there..aka the LA Kings who just barely got into the playoffs as an 8th seed and just happened to get hot with the right goalie at the right time and win the cup, does not mean that this works for all clubs.  I would rather build the way the the Blackhawks have done.  Of course it helps sucking and getting some picks.  How far do they go if the Flyers would have picked #1 and picked Kane instead of JVR.  At least they developed a good young D-man in the likes of D. Keith.  When was the last time the Flyers did that?  IMO it always seems like a band-aid fix here and there. 

 

With a cap in the league you cannot take the approach of worrying about next year...next year.  I firmly believe you have to have a plan in place for next year then a 3 yr plan and a 5 yr plan so you know how to spend your money wisely.  I don't think the Flyers have such a plan in place or the right people employeed to develop such a plan.  If that was the case then you lay off Weber last year and go after him this year.

 

Yippe...they screwed Nashville.  They are not a rival to us and quite frankly I would love to have Weber in a Flyers this year.

 

end of rant.......

Edited September 11, 2013 by pilldoc

[Flyskippy]

The STH townhall was very eye opening to me that the mentality is that we just need to get to the playoffs and see what happens.  This was an Organ-I-zation wide mentality too it is not just Homer.  Even Hexy said as much.  I think that there approach is to just get in the playoffs and see what kind of tweaks they can make along the way.  While I do believe there is luck involved in winning I think that they are relying too much on this notion and that they could do more to put themselves in the best position possible to minimize the impact of "luck".  radoran noticed this in the writeup that we put together and was not at all pleased with their "strategy" I was surprised that he was the only 1 to comment on this. 

 

Nevertheless I think that this is one of the root problems with and why the Flyers do what they do.  They figure as long as they get in they have a chance so they just worry about this year now and future years later.    

Getting to the playoffs = $$$  It *is* a business, after all.

[flyercanuck]

@pilldoc

 

 I'm pretty sure Weber could rebound in Philly playing with forwards like Giroux, Voracek, Hartnell, Schenn, Simmonds, Read (LeCavalier, though he may not be here if Weber was). He doesn't have that luxury in Nashville.

[flyercanuck]

@krasy

 

 Well the fact he signed with Philly tells me he would, in fact, sign with Philly.

[murraycraven]

Didn't Weber actually meet with the Flyers during the offseason before Homer tendered the offer sheet?  It sure sounded like he wanted to he here...

 

Remember this?  Just to add insult to injury:

 

[krasy]

@krasy

 

 Well the fact he signed with Philly tells me he would, in fact, sign with Philly.

Yes i see your point, but as far as i remember our offer sheet was the only one and with significant raise.

It may be different if 28 more teams were also giving him a option.

However - i still want this guy here.

[murraycraven]

However - i still want this guy here

 

yeah.... but he ain't coming to Philly...  moving on

[krasy]

yeah.... but he ain't coming to Philly...  moving on

 

maybe at trade deadline 2014 

[murraycraven]

maybe at trade deadline 2014 

 

I have to figure the Preds are going to run out of money sooner or later!

[radoran]

I have to figure the Preds are going to run out of money sooner or later!

 

The Chairman of Predators Holdings, Thomas Cigarran, has so much money he doesn't even have a wikipedia page.

 

True story.

[pilldoc]

@pilldoc

 

 I'm pretty sure Weber could rebound in Philly playing with forwards like Giroux, Voracek, Hartnell, Schenn, Simmonds, Read (LeCavalier, though he may not be here if Weber was). He doesn't have that luxury in Nashville.

I'm sure he would rebound too...but it was just a thought I heard before.