Meltzer on Morin

[brelic]

http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog.php?post_id=58043

I saw a few members talking about this in the shoutbox.

Samuel Morin, the Flyers' first-round pick in the 2013 NHL Draft, is having an up-and-down third season for the Rimouski Oceanic of the Quebec Major Junior Hockey League. He is developing at an encouraging pace overall but there have been bumps along the path this season. There is still a long way for the 6-foot-7 defenseman to go before he'll be ready to be a minutes-eater in the NHL much less a potential franchise defenseman.

I have seen the "hype bubble" inflate and then break young first-round defensemen too many times over the years. The expectations are built too high and when the player almost inevitably hits the wall and struggles, the over-hype quickly turns into a rush to judge the player as a bust.

In the Philadelphia market especially -- where patience for a young player's growing pains is virtually non-existent among the ravenous fan base -- the 18-year-old Morin is at risk of being a casualty of "hype cycle" if he's rushed to the NHL too fast and if no one puts the brakes on expectations being too high.

Do you want to know the number one reason why the Flyers have historically developed few homegrown defensemen? It's because a) the development cycle simply takes too long for this market's tastes, b) the development is rarely a linear upward arrow and c) there are absolutely no guarantees that the years of time, energy and coaching poured into the young defenseman will result in him reaching the maximum potential projected in his draft year.

When a team goes into every season in "win now" mode, it's tough to oversee from beginning to end a process that routinely takes three to five years from a player's draft year. Even multi-talented teenage defensemen who come directly to the NHL have to go through their own learning curve at the pro level. For instance, Seth Jones is experiencing firsthand this season in Nashville that dominating junior hockey is something quite different from doing it against adults who are the best players in the world.

Morin's game in the Q this season has taken forward steps in several areas. I have seen nine of his QMJHL games this season via webcasts as well as the Super Series games he participated in, and I think he's coming along well. I also think he's still very much a work in progress and it could take time -- as is multiple years from now -- to see if he can become a dominant NHL player.

Three key areas:

1) Morin has begun the process of smoothing out some of the rough patches in his footwork, but this is not going to happen overnight. He's a good skater for such a big play, but there are still times where he looks awkward as he's crossing over. He'll end up sometimes on the wrong side of the dots and, unless he can use his long reach to break up the play, he'll get beaten.

2) Morin's first-pass ability and confidence in his shot continue to grow. While his seven goals, 18 assists and 25 points in 42 games this season are nothing special, Morin's season-to-season improvements in these areas are significant. He's a decided better now in these parts of his game than he was last season. There is a chance that Morin could be among the small minority of players who actually becomes a more productive offensive player at the pro level than he was as junior.

I think the comparisons to Chris Pronger are a pipedream right now from an offensive standpoint. Morin has never shown even half of Pronger's offensive pedigree at the same age.

Then again, who would predicted how much Zdeno Chara would develop offensively (or all-around) in his 20s? Based on his WHL play with Prince George and early pro years, Chara was as raw as could be before he put everything together in Ottawa and Boston. The New York Islanders got to experience all the growing pains and none of the later benefits.

3) Morin has dealt with his share of adversity of this season. This could actually be a blessing in disguise in the long term.

He's had a couple of suspensions from the Quebec League this season; most recently for breaking his stick in frustration and then throwing it in the stands at the end of a game. Morin has also had his share of plays where he's been a little too overeager to make plays with the puck or deliver big hits and pucks have ended up in the Rimouski net because of turnovers or Morin getting out position.

While these are not positive things in the short term, any hockey scout or coach will tell you that it's easier to calm an overzealous young player down -- he should mature over time anyway -- than it is to instill "compete level" in a player. Morin competes hard; every game, every shift. Even if he gets beaten, he does not give up on plays (a criticism that sometimes gets levied at second-round pick Robert Hägg in the Swedish Hockey League).

No one likes to sit out games or to hurt their team. Morin has the opportunity to take the adversity from these situations and make them into learning experiences. Again, it won't be an overnight process but the player has the right attitude and disposition to go along with his size and raw athleticism.

Lastly, it should be noted that Morin dealt with a hand injury early this season that kept him out of the lineup for awhile. He had a shoulder injury last season that kept him out for a prolonged period of time. Nevertheless, he's kept right on developing as a player.

Could Morin make the Flyers' NHL roster next season? It's possible. He's already under entry level contract and he made a good accounting of himself at the Flyers' training camp in September.

Personally speaking, though, I am in favor of being very conservative in the nurturing of a young defenseman. I'd be fine with the Flyers giving Morin one additional season in junior hockey and letting him take his shot at a spot on Team Canada at the 2015 World Junior Championships (he was not a serious WJC candidate this year). At age 20, I'd let his NHL entry-level contract start and bring him along slowly over his rookie and second pro seasons.

I would only want to see that process expedited if it's clear-cut that Morin is ready to handle the demands of the NHL game on a full-time basis. In truth, he's going to develop at his own pace. Rushing him to the Flyers won't make the desired end result come about sooner -- but it could hinder him.

Patience is in order with Morin. Over the long term, I think he's going to be a good NHL defenseman with some leadership potential. In the meantime, temper the short-term expectations.

[flyercanuck]

Everybody and their mother knew Morin was a project going forward. There were people who wondered whether he could make the Flyers out of camp...it would have been a short career and waste of a high first rounder. I don't see him making it next year either. A big part of his game is his ability to "outsize" his opposition. He may have height, but the average NHLer weighs about the same as him. I'd like to see him play one more junior year and at least a stint in the A.

 

 And I'm pretty sure that stick wasn't thrown into the fans....he broke it on the glass and the broken part flew over. It wasn't intentional. The guy hates losing, which is good. He just needs to keep his emotions under control.

[radoran]

To the topic at hand, Morin may or may not develop. That was a risk taken with full knowledge when it happened. I don't believe that the player will fully "develop" here if he is on a Chara-style trend line. The Flyers will be the Islanders in that matchup.

 

Will he be a Chara? A Pronger? A Myers? A pylon? I don't know. Nobody really does. I see no reason to rush the process along, given the contract situation. Give him all the time in the world to develop. Give him some time in the A if you need to. See if you can get him to a bridge contract at 24 or so to see how he plays at 26.

 

Yes, that's 6+ years from now.

 

where patience for a young player's growing pains is virtually non-existent among the ravenous fan base

 

If by "fan base" he means "front office" he might be on to something here. As is evidenced by:

 

When a team goes into every season in "win now" mode, it's tough to oversee from beginning to end a process that routinely takes three to five years from a player's draft year.

 

The team has been in "win now" mode since, roughly, 1996 and hasn't ever shown a different phillyosophy for almost two decades.

 

I haven't seen "the fan base" trade a player. "The fan base" isn't the general manager. Quite frankly, if a GM is making a deal that will give up an asset he believes can be a valuable part of the team because "the fan base" has "no patience" then he's a fool. But I repeat myself...

 

The number of #17 CARTER and #18 RICHARDS jerseys still populating the Big Bank Building seems to fly in the face of the idea that "the fan base" has no patience to develop young players. They bought entirely into those two and... the front office ripped the team apart. "The fan base" didn't choose Crater and Richards. "The fan base" didn't sign them to decade-long deals. "The fan base" didn't trade both of them one year removed from a Finals appearance.

 

"The fan base" isn't the "impatient" part of this equation - at all.

 

To that end, I don't really believe that Hartnell, Simmonds, Voracek, Read, etc. are going to finish out their contracts here if they don't "win now" within the next 2-3 years. I'll give Giroux five on the outside.

[flyercanuck]

@radoran

 

 I agree rad...the "impatience" you see from some Flyer fans comes about from growing up following a team management that preaches nothing but that.

[murraycraven]

I think this article was spot on in regards to the fans and club's impatience w/ some young prospects.   With that being said I think the ownership and management have created the "win now" culture which has not worked.   Let's trade some young player for some has-been big name veteran to win this year.  I hope to hell that they are patient w/ Morin and Haag.  Let them develop and dont force expectations on them... 

 

If Fluke Schenn can be a bust at #5 overall why can't Sam be a very good defenseman  when picked at 11th.   It takes patience and time to develop a dman that is a project. 

 

@Rad... Carter and Richards are the two that easily come to mind but aside from them who has the fanbase really bought into?  I think the fanbase is just as impatient as the ownership / management.  Maybe this is a result of how the Team has been managed over the years but the fanbase wants to win every year...  I would rather see an actual plan and patience but I would suspect I am in the minority.

[brelic]

To the topic at hand, Morin may or may not develop. That was a risk taken with full knowledge when it happened. I don't believe that the player will fully "develop" here if he is on a Chara-style trend line. The Flyers will be the Islanders in that matchup.

Completely agree.

To that end, I don't really believe that Hartnell, Simmonds, Voracek, Read, etc. are going to finish out their contracts here if they don't "win now" within the next 2-3 years. I'll give Giroux five on the outside.

Also completely agree. In fact, I think there's a good chance one of them is traded next week or at the draft. If it's next week, it will be for what has to be a record 11th NHL defenseman. Snider and Homer can sniff the playoffs, so they're probably in all-in mode.

Meltzer is also guilty in this equation. He would consider trading Giroux for Weber. I mean, in terms of value, sure.. but to what end? You trade away your face of the franchise AGAIN and captain AGAIN and top scorer AGAIN? It's enough to make your head spin.

The team has been in "win now" mode since, roughly, 1996 and hasn't ever shown a different phillyosophy for almost two decades.

 

I haven't seen "the fan base" trade a player. "The fan base" isn't the general manager. Quite frankly, if a GM is making a deal that will give up an asset he believes can be a valuable part of the team because "the fan base" has "no patience" then he's a fool. But I repeat myself...

 

The number of #17 CARTER and #18 RICHARDS jerseys still populating the Big Bank Building seems to fly in the face of the idea that "the fan base" has no patience to develop young players. They bought entirely into those two and... the front office ripped the team apart. "The fan base" didn't choose Crater and Richards. "The fan base" didn't sign them to decade-long deals. "The fan base" didn't trade both of them one year removed from a Finals appearance.

 

"The fan base" isn't the "impatient" part of this equation - at all.

Again, totally agree. OF COURSE the fan base is impatient. So is every other NHL fan base. They all want to win. But they're not in charge of a $60+ million dollar organization.

The real impatience comes from the people who actually make the moves.

[TimKerrFan12]

Saw him live this year. Logged a lot of icetime, but didn't look like anything special, other then his size. I think it will take a while for him to develop, unless he really turns it up unexpectedly.

[fanaticV3.0]

I think this article was spot on in regards to the fans and club's impatience w/ some young prospects.   With that being said I think the ownership and management have created the "win now" culture which has not worked.   Let's trade some young player for some has-been big name veteran to win this year.  I hope to hell that they are patient w/ Morin and Haag.  Let them develop and dont force expectations on them... 

 

If Fluke Schenn can be a bust at #5 overall why can't Sam be a very good defenseman  when picked at 11th.   It takes patience and time to develop a dman that is a project. 

 

@Rad... Carter and Richards are the two that easily come to mind but aside from them who has the fanbase really bought into?  I think the fanbase is just as impatient as the ownership / management.  Maybe this is a result of how the Team has been managed over the years but the fanbase wants to win every year...  I would rather see an actual plan and patience but I would suspect I am in the minority.

 

Just this year alone I've seen people suggest we trade Schenn (the good one), Couturier (that was me), and Voracek. And that's just on this board. So yeah, I agree management isn't the only ones who are impatient.

[radoran]

@Rad... Carter and Richards are the two that easily come to mind but aside from them who has the fanbase really bought into?  I think the fanbase is just as impatient as the ownership / management.  Maybe this is a result of how the Team has been managed over the years but the fanbase wants to win every year...  I would rather see an actual plan and patience but I would suspect I am in the minority.

 

I still see a bunch of #12s - and I don't mean Raffl.

 

Vinny Prospsal is still "Vinny" because of his time in Philadelphia. That was 20 years ago.

 

Aside from that, who else was there? Zubrus? Williams? Pitkanen? Boucher? JVR?

 

I'll wager that a lot of people are really high on ol' #28 GIROUX. And I don't recall anyone in "the fan base" demanding JVR be traded straight up for a traffic cone. But I'll likely go with the idea that there was fan "impatience" with JVR.

[murraycraven]

Completely agree.

Also completely agree. In fact, I think there's a good chance one of them is traded next week or at the draft. If it's next week, it will be for what has to be a record 11th NHL defenseman. Snider and Homer can sniff the playoffs, so they're probably in all-in mode.

Meltzer is also guilty in this equation. He would consider trading Giroux for Weber. I mean, in terms of value, sure.. but to what end? You trade away your face of the franchise AGAIN and captain AGAIN and top scorer AGAIN? It's enough to make your head spin.

Again, totally agree. OF COURSE the fan base is impatient. So is every other NHL fan base. They all want to win. But they're not in charge of a $60+ million dollar organization.

The real impatience comes from the people who actually make the moves.

 

 

Great post Brelic...

[murraycraven]

I still see a bunch of #12s - and I don't mean Raffl.

 

Vinny Prospsal is still "Vinny" because of his time in Philadelphia. That was 20 years ago.

 

Aside from that, who else was there? Zubrus? Williams? Pitkanen? Boucher? JVR?

 

I'll wager that a lot of people are really high on ol' #28 GIROUX. And I don't recall anyone in "the fan base" demanding JVR be traded straight up for a traffic cone. But I'll likely go with the idea that there was fan "impatience" with JVR.

 

 

I can see Gagne for sure and Williams and maybe Boucher...

 

Joni Pit, JvR and Zubrus were never the darlings of the fanbase... the fans IMO were just as impatient as ownership. 

[radoran]

Just this year alone I've seen people suggest we trade Schenn (the good one), Couturier (that was me), and Voracek. And that's just on this board. So yeah, I agree management isn't the only ones who are impatient.

 

I agree as well - but "the fanbase" doesn't make the calls and, again, if the GM is trading away guys he thinks have value because "the fanbase" has soured on them, he's a fool.

 

Who has "the fanbase" given up on and "forced" to be traded away?

 

I can't think of anybody.

[murraycraven]

Who has "the fanbase" given up on and "forced" to be traded away?

I can't think of anybody.

 

Leighton :blink:

[radoran]

I can see Gagne for sure and Williams and maybe Boucher...

 

Joni Pit, JvR and Zubrus were never the darlings of the fanbase... the fans IMO were just as impatient as ownership. 

 

Well, again, I agree with that. But, again, ownership made the decision to trade.

There's also the question of cart and horse in this situation. When your GM (say, Bob Clarke) is publicly bashing a player's desire (say, Justin Williams) then who's the driving force in the trade? The "fan base" or management?

 

Now, insert "Homer" and "JvR" in that last sentence.

[fanaticV3.0]

I agree as well - but "the fanbase" doesn't make the calls and, again, if the GM is trading away guys he thinks have value because "the fanbase" has soured on them, he's a fool.

 

Who has "the fanbase" given up on and "forced" to be traded away?

 

I can't think of anybody.

 

The fans can't change the on-ice product and unless I missed something that's not what was being discussed.  What was being debated was whether or not management was the only party with a lack of patience.

 

I think it's cyclical. Snider wants to win now, as well as make money, so he puts a product on the ice he thinks will compete every year. I think it's fair to assume that if he went full on youth movement and the team stunk for years, the fan base would stop going to games, which scares him. I can think back to a time when I'd actually go down to the Spectrum with not tickets and would walk up to the window and purchase seats for a game that night without any problem at all. The early 90s were like that. I think if the team missed the POs for several years in a row it would only be a matter of time before it goes back to that.

[radoran]

The fans can't change the on-ice product and unless I missed something that's not what was being discussed.  What was being debated was whether or not management was the only party with a lack of patience.

 

Your response was to murraycraven, who was (directly) responding to me, and I was criticizing Meltzer's assertion that "the fanbase" had no patience which was why players didn't "develop" in Philadelphia. He doesn't offer any caveats to the assertion. He is stating quite clearly that "the fanbase" is the reason.

 

There are undoubtedly people who are impatient with development. There are obviously people who would rashly trade away players in a fit of pique.

 

Unfortunately, one of them is currently GM of the team.

[fanaticV3.0]

I have seen the "hype bubble" inflate and then break young first-round defensemen too many times over the years. The expectations are built too high and when the player almost inevitably hits the wall and struggles, the over-hype quickly turns into a rush to judge the player as a bust.

 

Having spent a lot of years on several different message boards and chat rooms (do they still exist?) I can agree I've seen a lot of fans over hype young players. I can't tell you how many times it is assumed they are going to be on the roster the following season. Not a defenseman, but I've seen it happen as recently as a few weeks ago in regards to Laughton.

 

What I'm curious to know is how many of the guys fans thought were a given actually panned out? There's been a few Jeff Wyowitka's and Bruno St. Jacques over the years.

[murraycraven]

Well, again, I agree with that. But, again, ownership made the decision to trade.

There's also the question of cart and horse in this situation. When your GM (say, Bob Clarke) is publicly bashing a player's desire (say, Justin Williams) then who's the driving force in the trade? The "fan base" or management?

 

Now, insert "Homer" and "JvR" in that last sentence.

 

 

agreed... I think we are debating the same point!

[radoran]

agreed... I think we are debating the same point!

 

It's not against the law to agree with folks

[flyercanuck]

Having spent a lot of years on several different message boards and chat rooms (do they still exist?) I can agree I've seen a lot of fans over hype young players. I can't tell you how many times it is assumed they are going to be on the roster the following season. Not a defenseman, but I've seen it happen as recently as a few weeks ago in regards to Laughton.

 

What I'm curious to know is how many of the guys fans thought were a given actually panned out? There's been a few Jeff Wyowitka's and Bruno St. Jacques over the years.

 

 

 I don't think you'll find many people who thought Woywitka or St. Jacques were a 'given". And there shouldn't be many who think Morin is either. The guy came with the ;label "project" attached to him. Anyone ignoring that is only fooling themselves.

 

 I'm a fan of Laughton, but with the Flyers depth a center, unless a trade is made he'll likely start in the A. Rushing a center when you're already overflowing with them makes no sense. That said I believe Laughton could play a 3rd or 4th line role in a pinch.

[radoran]

 I don't think you'll find many people who thought Woywitka or St. Jacques were a 'given". And there shouldn't be many who think Morin is either. The guy came with the ;label "project" attached to him. Anyone ignoring that is only fooling themselves.

 

 I'm a fan of Laughton, but with the Flyers depth a center, unless a trade is made he'll likely start in the A. Rushing a center when you're already overflowing with them makes no sense. That said I believe Laughton could play a 3rd or 4th line role in a pinch.

 

Considering that the Flyers have Giroux-VLC/Schenn-Couturier down the middle for the forseeable future, would you want Laughton in a fourth line role?

 

I think he'd be better off getting offensive minutes in the A.

[murraycraven]

 I don't think you'll find many people who thought Woywitka or St. Jacques were a 'given". And there shouldn't be many who think Morin is either. The guy came with the ;label "project" attached to him. Anyone ignoring that is only fooling themselves.

 

 I'm a fan of Laughton, but with the Flyers depth a center, unless a trade is made he'll likely start in the A. Rushing a center when you're already overflowing with them makes no sense. That said I believe Laughton could play a 3rd or 4th line role in a pinch.

 

 

If he turned into a 2nd pairing type dman I would be happy...  Obviously if he was a Pronger/Weber type all the better but I think it is a "wait and see" game w/ Morin at this point.   A total project that has great upside that might or might not work out.  I think we know more about what Hagg will be than Morin.

Edited February 18, 2014 by murraycraven

[fanaticV3.0]

 I don't think you'll find many people who thought Woywitka or St. Jacques were a 'given". And there shouldn't be many who think Morin is either. The guy came with the ;label "project" attached to him. Anyone ignoring that is only fooling themselves.

 

 I'm a fan of Laughton, but with the Flyers depth a center, unless a trade is made he'll likely start in the A. Rushing a center when you're already overflowing with them makes no sense. That said I believe Laughton could play a 3rd or 4th line role in a pinch.

 

This is either revisionist history or we were hanging out in different places, because I can't even count how many people I talked to (both online and off) who penciled them in as starters. It's the same type of mindset that thought the addition of the kids to the 06-07 team was going to  lead to big things that year.

[OccamsRazor]

S js

If he turned into a 2nd pairing type dman I would be happy...  Obviously if he was a Pronger/Weber type all the better but I think it is a "wait and see" game w/ Morin at this point.   A total project that has great upside that might or might not work out.  I think we know more about what Hagg will be than Morin.

Yes it really xepends on expectations, he isn't gonna be an offensive defenseman keep that in mind he is gonna be a stay at home type that skates well for a big kid. He will need to play with an offensive defenseman and they can complement each other. Now that isn't to say he won't be able to score he is suppose to have adecent cannon from the point and a decent wrister too. Yet he still needs to work on everything. The ideal situation would be another year in juniors and then time in the A. But we are talking about the Flyers so I hope they just don't rush him or do like mentioned with Chara and the Isles.

[OccamsRazor]

He isn't going to be a Pronger those type guys are a point per game types in juniors and Morin doesn't have offensive capabilities like that from what I've gathered, but he still I think has upside to be a #2 or #3 which are needed. And would be happy with that. I would anyways. He just needs to put on some more muscle and that will come in time. Whiche they have.