AJgoal Posted March 3, 2014 Posted March 3, 2014 (edited) I mentioned in one of the trade deadline threads that Gus has far and away the best +/- on the team. It's potentially skewed by his low games played (27) and his average TOI (17:40, 5th among D on the team. Only Mesz and Schenn have less). So I decided to take a bit deeper look into the realm of advanced stats and found some interesting bits. Gus has the second best Goals for/20 among defensemen on the team (0.998). It's effectively equal to Meszaros' best-on-team mark of 0.999. He has the best GA/20 among d on the team at 0.570. Timonen is next at 0.644, then Streit at 0.739. This isn't terribly suprising given the +/- numbers. Edit: the GF/20 and GA/20 are based on team scoring, not necessarily a goal that the player had a point on) What gets interesting is when you look at the TM20s. These measure the goals for and goals against of Gus' linemates when not paired with him. Gus' TM20GF is 0.738, and TM20GA is 0.862, meaning his linemates score 0.260 goals fewer and allow 0.168 goals more per twenty minutes of ice time. the percentage of goals for vs goals against drops from 0.636 to 0.454 when players aren't playing with Gus. His Hockey analysis ratings for offense, defense, and total are all positive. In essence, 0.0 is an average player. The more positive or negative a number, more above average a player is considered. Among Flyers defensemen, Gustafsson has the highest ratings of each of the three, and is the only defenseman where each is positive. His HARO is 36.3, HARD is 17.6, and HART is 26.9. Only Timonen has an HARD greater than 0 (7.5), and only Meszaros has an HART over 0 (10.0). Now, I have to caveat by saying Luke Schenn's HARO is 23.9, so it's probably not the best measure of offensive output. However, his teammate's HAR numbers are significantly lower. Offense, Defense, and total HAR for his linemates are 3.6, -15.5, and -5.9, while opposition quality he has faced is better on offense than Streit, Schenn, or Meszaros face, and better on defense than any dman but Meszaros has faced. If you do some calculation, you find that when Gustafsson is on the ice, his teammates produce more goals than normal, and at a rate higher than everyone but Meszaros. Conversely, when he is on the ice, his teammates give up fewer goals than when they play with any other defenseman. You find similar statistics when you compare Gus' stats against the offensive and defensive stats of his opponents: His opponents give up more goals than they normally would when he is on the ice, and score fewer. What all this means is that Gustafsson is putting up better numbers than most of his teammates, while facing tougher competition in each direction. Even moreso, he makes the players around him statistically better. Now this is probably skewed by the fact that he has played 120 fewer minutes than any Flyers defenseman not named Gill, but the stats are impressive all the same. (for stats used, see http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=1481) Edited March 3, 2014 by AJgoal Quote
murraycraven Posted March 3, 2014 Posted March 3, 2014 Insteresting stats AJ... I am not super high on Gus but I think he should be in the lineup more often than not. He seems to be in Berube's doghouse for some reason. I realize that we got blown out by the Sharks but he lead all defensmen with TOI. The next game he is in the pressbox... to me this is as confusing as it gets from a Coaching standpoint. Quote
AJgoal Posted March 3, 2014 Author Posted March 3, 2014 MC, I think he deserves regular playing time to find out what he really is. To my eye he's looked at least as good as the rest of the defense, and at 26, he's entering his prime as a defenseman. To me, he's definitely an NHL defenseman. My only question is, is he a #3, or a #6? The Flyers haven't done themselves any favors by keeping him in the pressbox for most of the season. These stats just make me more confident that he should be on the ice full time. 1 Quote
murraycraven Posted March 3, 2014 Posted March 3, 2014 MC, I think he deserves regular playing time to find out what he really is. To my eye he's looked at least as good as the rest of the defense, and at 26, he's entering his prime as a defenseman. To me, he's definitely an NHL defenseman. My only question is, is he a #3, or a #6? The Flyers haven't done themselves any favors by keeping him in the pressbox for most of the season. These stats just make me more confident that he should be on the ice full time. Spot on AJ! Could not agree more... I look at him and just wonder why he is being used the way he is. He certainly passes the eye test and even moreso when compared to the rest our defense. The kid deserves a shot ot prove himself. I dont have any doubt that he is an everyday dman but would like to know where he is best slotted as you say - a #3 or a #6... They are doing Gus and themselves a disservice IMO... Quote
AJgoal Posted March 3, 2014 Author Posted March 3, 2014 A little bit more on this. Those were all even-strength stats. This year he has played 18:26 on the PK and 20:22 on the PP. His PP GF/20 is 1.966, with 2 assists. He has yet to be on the ice for a PK GA or a shorty against. Last year, he played 45:18 on the PP, with one assist, and 34:36 on the PK. Again, he was never on the ice for a PK goal against or a shorty against. Here's a full breakdown of how individual players do when on the ice with Gus and without, as well as how each player affects Gus' production: http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=1481&withagainst=true&season=2013-14&sit=f10 Look at Mason's GA/20 when Gus is on the ice vs. when he's not. It's almost twice as good.Luke Schenn is almost half a goal against worse when paired with someone other than Gus. Quote
jammer2 Posted March 4, 2014 Posted March 4, 2014 The nice little stats package told me numerically what I already knew, Gus is at the very least an effective bottom pairing d-man. At best he's a #3 option who can run the 2nd pp and supply offense when at even strength. Jesus, he *actually* skates the puck out of trouble, only Kimo can do this on our team...that is something that should be developed and coddled, not press boxed. I know a lot of people don't agree, but I see an all star type of d-man in Gus, but they are wrecking him by either not playing him at a crucial developmental year of his growth, or by not pairing him with the right guys. No wonder the Flyers never develop their own d-men!! We have a young stud on defense, and don't even know it...this is a real bad example of an org A) Not realizing what it has... B) Not putting the talent in a spot where it can flourish and develop properly. This is a bad miss by the org, hopefully they don't just give up on him and ship him out in a deal, so we can watch him become a star somewhere else. Myself, I wanna see a Gus and Kimo pair, where he can learn from him on the ice.....having basically the same skill set, he could learn a lot about positioning and subtle passes out of the zone, when to pinch etc, etc, etc..... Quote
AJgoal Posted March 4, 2014 Author Posted March 4, 2014 I'm hoping that management stops putting roadblocks infront of Gus (And Laughton, and...) in the form of late timers on long contracts. You've got a guy who has proven he can do it. I know he's looked a bit out of sync this year at times, but his body of work before was pretty solid. Let him play. I don't know why, but their patience with d-men is worse than with forwards. At least the forwards keep playing. Quote
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.