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What will Niskanen get as a UFA


nossagog
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Okay,  I started a separate thread to see our GM skills.   In some of the Pen's threads, estimates for Niskanen's cap hit somewhere next year have gone from $4M/year(me) to $6M/year Yave.   Loads of people seem to think he'll be in the $5M to $5.5M range.  

 

 

So post you GM estimate here.

 

Niskanen info:

 27 years old       6'0"     205lbs

Acquired as toss in in the deal that brought James Neal from the Stars in 2011.

Last contract: $2.3M/year signed in 2012. Prior contracts for $850K/year for 3  entry level, and initial salary of $1.5M/year for 2 years.  So $850K,$850K,$850K,$1.5M,$1.5M,$2.3M,$2.3M

 

Plus's:

Solid defensively,  took great strides this season with all the injuries on the Pens defense, and at one point was on the top power play(when Martin and Letang were both injured).

Fair speed

Career year this season with 10 goals and 36 assists.

Good wrist shot.

 

Minus's:

Not physical, has a hard time in front of the net.

Average puck handling skills, has tendency to move puck too soon against high pressure teams.

Below average slap shot from point.

Prior to this year was average

Probably a 3/4 pairing on most teams, maybe a top pair guy on a bad team.

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Okay,  I started a separate thread to see our GM skills.   In some of the Pen's threads, estimates for Niskanen's cap hit somewhere next year have gone from $4M/year(me) to $6M/year Yave.   Loads of people seem to think he'll be in the $5M to $5.5M range.  

 

 

So post you GM estimate here.

 

Niskanen info:

 27 years old       6'0"     205lbs

Acquired as toss in in the deal that brought James Neal from the Stars in 2011.

Last contract: $2.3M/year signed in 2012. Prior contracts for $850K/year for 3  entry level, and initial salary of $1.5M/year for 2 years.  So $850K,$850K,$850K,$1.5M,$1.5M,$2.3M,$2.3M

 

Plus's:

Solid defensively,  took great strides this season with all the injuries on the Pens defense, and at one point was on the top power play(when Martin and Letang were both injured).

Fair speed

Career year this season with 10 goals and 36 assists.

Good wrist shot.

 

Minus's:

Not physical, has a hard time in front of the net.

Average puck handling skills, has tendency to move puck too soon against high pressure teams.

Below average slap shot from point.

Prior to this year was average

Probably a 3/4 pairing on most teams, maybe a top pair guy on a bad team.

I think the Defensemen pool is so thin at UFA this year that he could look to bank a good chunk of change from the teams trying to land a good one. 5.5 million per for 6 years? Overpayment yes, but defensemen are a hotter commodity than Forwards when it comes to #3/4 Dmen and 2nd line forwards.

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Six Million is about the top end, there are half a dozen teams in need of a top tier defenseman this offseason.

 

  The big things in his favor are, his age (27) the fact that he had a career year and the fact that the only other d-men are either talented but old (Markov, Zidlicky) or meh.

  Personally, I would love to see Niskanen with the Wings for around 5 million a year, but the fact is as the only game in town he will be able to command a heck of a price.

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The Flyers gave Andrew MacDonald $5M a year, what do you think Niskanen's agent thinks about that?

 

Me thinks he thinks his client is getting more.

 

I'll put the numbers in the response even though we are on the same page....

 

Both 27 years old.

 

Niskanen is coming off a 10/36/46/+33 season.  His numbers have basically improved each season (projected stats for lockout season)...

 

Goals:  3 / 1 / 4 / 8 / 10

Assists: 12 / 9 / 17 / 21 / 36

+/-:  -15 / -3 / +9 / +9 / +33 (The latter led all defencemen...)

 

MacDonald is coming off a 4/24/28/-22 season with the Isles and Flyers.

 

His numbers have been about the same since his first full season (projected stats for lockout and time missed due to injury)....

 

Goals: 5 / 5 / 6 / 4

Assists: 31 / 14 / 18 / 24

+/-:  +12 / -5 / -4 / -22

 

$6,000,000 just doesn't pass the eyeball test but I would not be shocked if someone gave it to him.  I don't think he's worth that.  But he should be getting more than MacDonald.  I had him at 5 years at $5,500,000 in another thread. I'll stand by that number.

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I would love to see Niskanen with the Wings for around 5 million a year, but the fact is as the only game in town he will be able to command a heck of a price.

 

Great point about being the only game In town.  Just ask Matt Carle. ;)

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  Niskanen gets 6.5 mill a year for 6 years. He does not deserve it, but it's a cat and mouse supply and demand kinda thing. Not many UFA d-men who are both young and capable of running a top pp....that drives his price over the top.

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$6,000,000 just doesn't pass the eyeball test but I would not be shocked if someone gave it to him.  I don't think he's worth that.  But he should be getting more than MacDonald.  I had him at 5 years at $5,500,000 in another thread. I'll stand by that number.

 

 

  Niskanen gets 6.5 mill a year for 6 years. He does not deserve it, but it's a cat and mouse supply and demand kinda thing. Not many UFA d-men who are both young and capable of running a top pp....that drives his price over the top.

 

Yep, this is pretty much where I am on these things...

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For those in the $5M to $6M range, his current contract is $2.3M, and he was happy to get that two years ago.   I just can't see teams making the jump from $2.3M to $5M very easily.    Yes his agent is going to seek a big payday with his play this year, but does one year deserve that payday?   Wait, I forgot we were talking about NHL GM's. 

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For those in the $5M to $6M range, his current contract is $2.3M, and he was happy to get that two years ago.   I just can't see teams making the jump from $2.3M to $5M very easily.    Yes his agent is going to seek a big payday with his play this year, but does one year deserve that payday?   Wait, I forgot we were talking about NHL GM's. 

 

Ya, who'd be crazy enough to double a players salary after one good year? :blink:

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For those in the $5M to $6M range, his current contract is $2.3M, and he was happy to get that two years ago.   I just can't see teams making the jump from $2.3M to $5M very easily.    Yes his agent is going to seek a big payday with his play this year, but does one year deserve that payday?   Wait, I forgot we were talking about NHL GM's. 

The problem is, the free agent pool is soooooo slim, so the team that has a need will overpay, either in dollars or in term. Niskanen showed great improvement and while I am not big on overpaying off 1 good year, the market is what the market is. 46 points and pretty good in all 3 zones is a payday for a defenseman since they are hitting their primes around age 27(Average). Even if I think he is only a very good 2nd pairing guy.

 

What is the going rate for guys who hit 46 points from the blueline. Better yet, guys who hit 46 points and are fairly decent defensively? 1 year is all it takes.

 

Look at what teams pay guys having a good year so they don't get to the market, where prices are higher. Larsson just got 5.5 million from the Yotes. Wisniewski makes 5.5 million. Does he deserve to be compared to them yet? Probably not. But the case his agent is going to make is "look what he could do stepping up when some other Pens went down"

 

There are a lot of lesser guys in the league who make 4-4.5 million.

Edited by J0e Th0rnton
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someone will pay 5.5 to 6 x 4 for him,  he's lucky in that , there's him and not much else on the UFA market, so for teams looking to upgrade their defense without giving up assets, he would be a risk worth taking.

 

His game has gotten a lot better in the last  two years, i thought he was pretty good for the Pens last year as well.  With the right partner his deficiencies around his own goaltender could be mininized and he could surely be a second pairing 22 minute a night guy.  He's got a nice game.

 

I would not be surprised to see him make nice bank this july, and he may not even have to relocate.

at this point i don't know if the new Pens GM would want to let him walk.

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someone will pay 5.5 to 6 x 4 for him,  he's lucky in that , there's him and not much else on the UFA market, so for teams looking to upgrade their defense without giving up assets, he would be a risk worth taking.

 

His game has gotten a lot better in the last  two years, i thought he was pretty good for the Pens last year as well.  With the right partner his deficiencies around his own goaltender could be mininized and he could surely be a second pairing 22 minute a night guy.  He's got a nice game.

 

I would not be surprised to see him make nice bank this july, and he may not even have to relocate.

at this point i don't know if the new Pens GM would want to let him walk.

I dunno. They need 6 forwards and 2 defensemen and only have 14-16 million in cap space

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I dunno. They need 6 forwards and 2 defensemen and only have 14-16 million in cap space

Could be, I was operating under the assumption that Orpik walks and that might help with resigning Niskanen . Unless you have already accounted for him.

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Could be, I was operating under the assumption that Orpik walks and that might help with resigning Niskanen . Unless you have already accounted for him.

http://www.capgeek.com/penguins/

 

Nah, I was accounting for him as well. They really are in a cap bind.

 

Its pretty god awful to be honest. 16 million dollars and in need of around 6 forwards, and 2 defensemen. Some of their entry level contract guys on defense are going to start the season injured too.

 

Letang's new contract kicking in is Ugh to them, especially since he is now a question mark. 7.25 million, as opposed to 3.5 million it was.

Edited by J0e Th0rnton
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http://www.capgeek.com/penguins/

 

Nah, I was accounting for him as well. They really are in a cap bind.

 

Its pretty god awful to be honest. 16 million dollars and in need of around 6 forwards, and 2 defensemen. Some of their entry level contract guys on defense are going to start the season injured too.

 

Letang's new contract kicking in is Ugh to them, especially since he is now a question mark. 7.25 million, as opposed to 3.5 million it was.

 

I mentioned in the rebuilding thread, if the could only move Letang, things would be good.  Maybe a rebuild is in order, lets start with Letang and maybe add Martin and Fleury.  Let the young defense take a year to learn.

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  • 1 month later...

WOW,  7 years at $5.75m/year.    I still think that's overpayment for one good year, but good for Nisky to get his payday.  I'll admit it, I was wrong.

 

I was figuring $6,000,000 per so the annual hit doesn't surprise me.  The lenght does.

 

The Engelland and Orpik deals are the real head scratchers.

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WOW,  7 years at $5.75m/year.    I still think that's overpayment for one good year, but good for Nisky to get his payday.  I'll admit it, I was wrong.

 

 I said 6.5 mill for 6 years, so factoring in the extra year and a few less bucks cause of that...I was pretty damn close to figuring out his market value.

 

 7 years for one good solid season, as an injury replacement on the top pp...he should be sending Letang some thank you notes, cause if he does not get hurt...he signs for less than 2 mill.

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