SPLIT: Flyers off-season moves

[Howie58]

hey Howie - good point about Trotz, if anyone can get it done in Washington he's the one. (meaning get #8 to play at least some defense)

 

I'm not terribly worried about Mason but what you say about the Flyers' D is right on the money I think. Everything I hear out of the Flyers' camp points to small moves this summer and I don't like the sounds of that. There may not be a lot to choose from but there are UFA/RFA D-men who can help us.

 

You and I seem to be in the minority now; everybody else is clamoring for a winger to slot into the top line. I feel like, unless LSchenn and Mac both take huge steps next season we're going to be stuck in our own zone a lot - again. Gus is gone, Streit is what he is, and then there's Coburn, Grossmann and maybe Kimmo. To me it's obvious those top 6 aren't good enough - in transition especially but also just basic coverage down low. Mason bailed them out so many times I just don't see how we can hope to compete without getting better defensively.

Canoli:

 

Good to hear from you. The uncertainty with this team over the last few years leads me to the usual "I will wait until Thanksgiving to judge" comment. Seriously, I just don't know what to say about this group. Hextall says one thing...maybe he does another. Our D is suspect. I think the forwards are more mucker grinders with few exceptions. On that score, even with his versatility, I might trade Read. He is dependable and steady...but basically an Unberger. B. Schenn...who knows?

 

Best,

 

Howie

[canoli]

On that score, even with his versatility, I might trade Read. He is dependable and steady...but basically an Unberger.

 

 

Read is an interesting case because he would certainly fetch a decent roster player in return. The thing is I really like his D and his PK work along with his obvious talent offensively. Our PK was the best part of the team all season and Read was a big piece of it. But you're right he's more like RJ than JR (a bit of a stretch considering JR was a center... but I couldn't resist

 

 

 

B. Schenn...who knows?

 

 

Indeed. Who the @#$ knows. BSchenn must make Hextall crazy. I know he frustrates the heck out of me and a lot of us...Hextall must be tempted to shop him around but it's risky; next season might be a big one for BSchenn.

 

Tough choices. BSchenn and Read could net us some real help defensively but where does that leave us 5 on 5? Maybe struggling even more, a scary thought.

[Howie58]

Canoli:

 

In recent history we thought there were cohorts of young players to build around. Then there were blow-ups. Heck...if someone offered us a first-rounder plus a decent winger for Simmonds I would consider, not because I really want to trade the guy, but if this team is as cap strained as we read/here, spreadsheet mentality says one of our big names goes because of bean counting. And remember, I am not so sure we dump Vinnie as easily as some here think...and what if we have to eat cap/salary to do so?

 

Peace,

Howie

[ruxpin]

I think I'm missing something.

 

nhlnumbers.com have us at a cap hit of $60.896M for 2014-15.   Now, for whatever reason, they still have Read as a UFA, but I know he's signed for a $3.625 cap hit.   So that has us at a total of $64.521M   against a $71.1M cap ceiling.  Add in Pronger's money (I know that's semantically incorrect, but it amounts to the same thing) of $4M and you have $10.579M in cap space.  I am assuming that if they have Read missing they may have others missing, but I don't see it right off the top.   But if that is close to accurate, I don't perceive the Flyers as having a real cap issue.  Granted, they have to sign Schenn (presumably) to somewhere around $3M (a vast overpayment, IMO, but maybe not if he ever starts living up to what was advertised and it's a several year contract). 

 

That's roughly $7.6M in cap space.  Plenty to sign a $4Mish Dman and fill in the forward roster.  If you trade Schenn for a defenseman or are able to get some sucker to take VLC sucks, then better yet.

 

Someone tell me if they have someone missing other than Read:    http://stats.nhlnumbers.com/teams/PHI?year=2015

 

Cap Geek has similar numbers, btw.

With that "space," we need a back up goalie, too.  But I think we're okay capwise.

[AJgoal]

Rux, if the cap goes to 71 million, they have about 11.5 in cap space, including Pronger's LTIR. But the consensus seems to be that it's actually going to come in at about 69 million. That's the number I'm using until it becomes official, as it's better to underestimate.

 

Currently, you have Akeson, McGinn, Schenn, and Gus that are RFAs. Gus went to the KHL, so he likely won't get a contract. Flyers best bet is probably to qualify him and package his rights if they don't intend to play him regularly. That leaves McGinn, Akeson, and Schenn. Figure Schenn gets 2.5 million. Figure McGinn gets a small bump to 800k, Akeson probably the same to 950k or so. McGinn is NOT exempt from waivers, so the Flyers need to either keep him up or trade him, unless they're willing to risk the possibility of losing him for nothing. Akeson goes down for one more season in the AHL unless the Flyers can move someone in the offseason.

 

By re-signing their own forwards and optioning Akeson to the Phantoms, the Flyers have 12 forwards, 5 defensemen, and one goalie under contract and roughly 6 million in cap space. Ideally, they need two more forwards, two more D, and a backup goalie. That leaves about 1.2 million average per player. You could bury Rosehill in the minors, but you'd neet to replace him with a similar contract. Even if you can shave half a million off Schenn's contract and get a few 4th line/3rd pair guys at 600-800k, you're still not going to be able to break the bank on a DMan or LW. You get a bit more flexibility if the cap goes all the way up to 71 million, but not too much. The only way you're going to be able to do anything significant is if you can move a contract or two like VLC or Grossmann.

[ruxpin]

Rux, if the cap goes to 71 million, they have about 11.5 in cap space, including Pronger's LTIR. But the consensus seems to be that it's actually going to come in at about 69 million. That's the number I'm using until it becomes official, as it's better to underestimate.  Agreed.  I was working under the impression the $71.1M was a done deal, but we'll go with your number since I really don't know now.

 

Currently, you have Akeson, McGinn, Schenn, and Gus that are RFAs. Gus went to the KHL, so he likely won't get a contract. Flyers best bet is probably to qualify him and package his rights if they don't intend to play him regularly. That leaves McGinn, Akeson, and Schenn. Figure Schenn gets 2.5 million. Figure McGinn gets a small bump to 800k, Akeson probably the same to 950k or so. McGinn is NOT exempt from waivers, so the Flyers need to either keep him up or trade him, unless they're willing to risk the possibility of losing him for nothing. Akeson goes down for one more season in the AHL unless the Flyers can move someone in the offseason.

 

By re-signing their own forwards and optioning Akeson to the Phantoms, the Flyers have 12 forwards, 5 defensemen, and one goalie under contract and roughly 6 million in cap space. Ideally, they need two more forwards, two more D, and a backup goalie. That leaves about 1.2 million average per player. You could bury Rosehill in the minors, but you'd neet to replace him with a similar contract. Even if you can shave half a million off Schenn's contract and get a few 4th line/3rd pair guys at 600-800k, you're still not going to be able to break the bank on a DMan or LW. You get a bit more flexibility if the cap goes all the way up to 71 million, but not too much. The only way you're going to be able to do anything significant is if you can move a contract or two like VLC or Grossmann.

 

 

I would not resign McGinn unless I'm signing and trading him for a 6th round pick or equivalent prospect.    If he's not waivers eligible and I have no takers, I sign him to an AHL contract and nothing more.

 

But if not McGinn, you probably still need to sign someone at an equivalent contract so it doesn't really change your math any.

 

I suspect your 2014-15 Flyers backup goalie may be Heeter.  I'm not thrilled, to be honest, but it's what I suspect.  I don't see him making any more than $800K.  I would keep Akeson up for the $950K.   I realize with such limited space that rounding up is not a great idea, but that leaves roughly $5M to sign a defenseman and a winger (I'm basically just substituting McGinn's money with Akeson's).

 

The winger is not happening unless they move someone or they're dumpster-diving for both positions.  The $71.1 might get us decent one-year contracts for both positions.   

 

Pretend, for a second, that they offer Timonen a one-year $3.5M contract.  At the $69M, that leaves nothing ($1.5M?) really for the winger, but I could really see this happening.  I'm praying they somehow move VLC's contract or put marbles on his steps or something because, to me, that's just dead space.

 

At $71.1 they can do all of the above and have $3.5M for the winger.  Or, you know, sign one or two entry-type or low-cost guys for insurance purposes.  It is a bit tighter than I said before, though.

[ruxpin]

@AJgoal

 

In my opinion, it's not ideal, but I suppose they could try to go with both Ghost and Ollie on defense on ELCs   It's my understanding (I don't actually know) that Ghost is at $925K and Ollie must be a little less.  That's $2M (roughly) for the defense, leaving roughly $3M to play with the winger position.  

 

Again, not ideal, but I could see them doing this (I couldn't see it with Homer, but it's possible with Hextall.  I guess we'll see).

[AJgoal]

Rux, ideally what I would do is move Grossmann, sign Timmo for the 3rd pairing, and let Lauridsen and Alt battle it out for the 6th spot, with the loser being the first callup. Let the youngster learn on a pair with Timmonen for a year. Keep Ghost in the A with Haag. Sign a Stu Bickel type for 1-2 years at 750k for your 7th Dman - someone who's a finished product who can fill in in a pinch, but who's not going to lose development time a la Gustafsson sitting in the press box. Unfortunately, you're rolling without a real #1 pairing, but it's what we have.

[OccamsRazor]

Rux, ideally what I would do is move Grossmann

 

I'd also like to move him and throw Grossman's 3.5 mill plus a little more at Stralman bring Kimmo back and resign Ollie to be the 7th for 700K.

[AJgoal]

You don't have to re-sign Lauridsen. He's under contract for 600k. However, I contend that sitting a young(er) player in the pressbox as your 7th defenseman is not the best course of action. See: Gustafsson, Erik. He needs to play in order to be able to adjust to the NHL game. I believe the club is better served to go to FA to find a 7th defenseman. There are plenty of inexpensive options out there whose development you won't be stunting by sitting them in the pressbox, but who won't kill you if they have to skate for a game or two. If you go with your plan and sign Kimmo and Stralman, then you keep all the youngsters on the farm and bring one up if there's a long-term injury.

 

Personally I would prefer to see the club open up at least the #6 spot for the best young defenseman out of camp, and not fill the Dcorps up with replacements from the FA pool. Right now we have five guys on contracts that extend at least two more seasons. If you sign Stralman, he's going to require 3-5 years. That's one less spot for one of your young guys over that time period, then when you add Timonen for one year, that eliminates that 6th spot this year. In contrast, replacing Grossmann with Timonen and not adding a FA defenseman gives NHL minutes to the guy most ready this year, and opens up a second slot next year, with two more coming up the year after depending on what you do with Coburn and L. Schenn. Next season and the season after is where you'll really be able to do something to solidify the defense due to the expiring contracts. This year, barring significant trades of more than one or two players, you're only going to be able to patch things.

 

EDIT: We've wandered way off topic here. Might be appropriate for a mod to break this into another discussion.

Edited June 2, 2014 by AJgoal

[OccamsRazor]

However, I contend that sitting a young(er) player in the pressbox as your 7th defenseman is not the best course of action.

 

I understand that part if he was young but he'll be 26 this year so they need to use him if he can play because he is subject to waivers and at this point it ain't going to really hurt his development he is really close to as good as he is going to get it is either sink or swim time for him.

 

Alt could be returned to the Phantoms if he can't cut it and Ollie could be the 7th. Stralman doesn't have to be signed but no matter what happens i'd move GrossmanN one slow guy Luke on the blueline is enough.

[King Knut]

We're always complaining about trading away young talent for has been whatever's.

I don't know if I think trading Schenn or read is an answer for anything when we finally have some good defensive prospects in the system.

Read is just quality and maybe he is RJ like but Is that so bad for a third line winger? Read has no up side. He is as good now as he's likely to get though I could see him getting slightly better in the clutch with age like someone like Brindy or Willy.

Schenn is the crap shoot. It's a tough call we know that but I say if you have a good deal lines up for a good quality established D-Man, then pull the trigger. Brayden has not distinguished himself.

That said, Hexy can't make a trade for the hell of it. If all he can get for Brayden Schenn is LUKE Schenn quality d men, than resign the prick for what you can and ride it out to see if he shines.

Read is an interesting case because he would certainly fetch a decent roster player in return. The thing is I really like his D and his PK work along with his obvious talent offensively. Our PK was the best part of the team all season and Read was a big piece of it. But you're right he's more like RJ than JR (a bit of a stretch considering JR was a center... but I couldn't resist

Indeed. Who the @#$ knows. BSchenn must make Hextall crazy. I know he frustrates the heck out of me and a lot of us...Hextall must be tempted to shop him around but it's risky; next season might be a big one for BSchenn.

Tough choices. BSchenn and Read could net us some real help defensively but where does that leave us 5 on 5? Maybe struggling even more, a scary thought.

[canoli]

The top priority for the Flyers this summer should be finding a new home for Vinny Lecavalier. He can't be happy with his performance or his situation, which is looking more and more like "odd man out." Who wants to be the guy who gets playing time simply because his salary dictates it? I'm hoping he feels that pressure and it makes him amenable to a trade. If he and the Flyers are on the same page so to speak, regarding his future it shouldn't be too hard to find a better spot for him elsewhere.

 

Moving him - even if we retain 1/2 his cap hit - opens things up considerably. I have a feeling Timonen will test the market and find a better fit too; he's said the only thing that will bring him back is a chance to win the Cup. Unless he's restricting himself to Eastern Conference teams there should be a few places that can offer him better odds of making the Final next year.

[murraycraven]

winger for Simmonds I would consider

 

outside of G Simmonds is the only untouchable on this Team.   This is one of Homer's very good signings and his contract/terms are very favorable to the Team.

 

I know I am going to get crushed for this but I also feel like B Schenn has a bit of the JvR-itis.   I often wonder where his head is at during games and see a bit of laziness when it comes to his defense game.   He needs to find a way to bring it every night and get consistent b/c the only thing he is consistent about is being inconsistent.

Edited June 4, 2014 by murraycraven

[Howie58]

Murray:

 

I like Simmonds and his attitude. But our short- and mid-range needs on defense and wing may lead to his being packaged. But I agree he is good and hopefully durable.  

 

Inconsistency is a problem that has plagued this team since the work stoppage of 2004-05.  My gut says this doesn't stop unless or until we keep a cohort of drafted players for a number of years and grow them together with an occasional trade to bolster the mix.  You and I know our approach has been trade-oriented. Until that stops I suspect we will see inconsistency between and within seasons because too many of the parts have come of age elsewhere with different systems. 

 

Best,

 

Howie

[murraycraven]

Murray:

 

I like Simmonds and his attitude. But our short- and mid-range needs on defense and wing may lead to his being packaged. But I agree he is good and hopefully durable.  

 

Inconsistency is a problem that has plagued this team since the work stoppage of 2004-05.  My gut says this doesn't stop unless or until we keep a cohort of drafted players for a number of years and grow them together with an occasional trade to bolster the mix.  You and I know our approach has been trade-oriented. Until that stops I suspect we will see inconsistency between and within seasons because too many of the parts have come of age elsewhere with different systems. 

 

Best,

 

Howie

 

 

Howie,

 

Agree with everything you say... it is time the Org finally builds a team instead of keeping the "puzzle piecing" mentality in play.  Hopefully Hextall is true to his word and build the Team through the draft and makes smart trades as needed - moreso, I hope he refrains from signing overpriced vets to long term deals

 

I love Simmonds game and he has taken on a leadership role which has been great to see.   Plays a tough O&B game and has skill... I hope he sticks around but I think there are definitely some moves on the way.  

Edited June 4, 2014 by murraycraven