AJgoal Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 I get the draft. Exceedingly well. As I pointed out earlier, Jay Bouwmeester had a scouting report pretty similar to Ekblad's. He was the top rated North American skater pre-draft. He was a can't miss, Chris-Pronger level defenseman. And while he's not been a bust, would he have been worth trading your top winger, top defenseman, and a 1st round pick for? Also, let's go back in time a bit. In 2002, the Flyers acquired the 4th overall pick for Ruslan Fedotenko and two seconds. In 2013, Vancouver acquired the 9th overall in exchange for Corey Schneider. Things change, but you're vastly overpaying, even for the #1 overall, if you're giving up Coburn and Voracek. Point noted so do you think the #1 guy on the blueline is in this organization now???? Maybe, maybe not. I don't follow the Junior leagues as much as I would like anymore. But even if he's not, that doesn't justify giving up that much in the way of proven assets for someone who may be that guy. Taking risks is fine, and necessary. But that's way too much risk. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OccamsRazor Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 i don't know much about drafts in other sports. maybe a baseball player can be projected on draft day accurately. maybe a college football standout is a safe bet as he moves into the NFL. i don't know. i do know with hockey, high draft picks have a less than 50% chance of turning out as projected. No you are right there are busts all over in every sport, i could go on and one and list them but the list is too long and then there is your 6th round Tom Brady find, it happens. It has a lot to do with luck and scouting and patience (all of which the Flyers aren't good with)...but one thing is for certain with all....there are risk involved. Nature of the beast when you're dealing with young folks and to me hockey is one of the riskiest because like you stated you're drafting an 18 year old kid unlike in the NFL you're drafting a grown man almost at 21 or 22 or even 23 maybe....so it is waaaay harder to project i think. That is why scouting is so huge and why the Flyers have always struggled to find certain guys because in my opinion they underestimated scouting or just didn't chose the right guys which ever, but it looks like they are learning (slower than we all would like) but none the less they are investing in scouting it seems and they have reaped the rewards these last two drafts. Now back to the subject i'm not sure if it worth what it will take to get the #1 overall cause it will be costly....i'm on the fence with this because well there is only one other way the can get their #1 and i know that will cost even more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OccamsRazor Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 no, he isn't. he also probably isn't in this year's draft class. Ok so i'm open to hear how you would suggest how the Flyers get them a #1 Weber type Dman then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aziz Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 Ok so i'm open to hear how you would suggest how the Flyers get them a #1 Weber type Dman then. the same way nashville got their #1 weber type dman. luck. seriously. that's it. luck. it isn't drafting high, weber was taken 49th overall. it isn't scouting, nashville took konstantin glazachev and kevin klein before they finally took weber. it's luck. the flyers haven't had it, recently (although, it looks like giroux was the best or second best pick of the 2006 class, taken at #22). that doesn't mean they should spend big on something proven to not work most of the time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ruxpin Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 I understand your point to but we can agree this so called #1 isn't on this roster now so there are two ways of getting him trading up for Ekblad who is arguable this so called #1.Or trading for this so called "proven" #1 which will be waaaay more costly than trading up to get Ekblad either way it will be a gamble.That is it....there is no other projected #1 guy in this draft. And yes i know that was said when Keith and Weber were drafted as well....but we don't have a crystal ball and all we can go off of now is the info on hand.And yes there is a chance Ekblad can be a total bust and there is a chance he can be the next Weber....so it's a gamble.But like Jammer stated none of the current guys in the Flyers system is projected to be this #1 guy.So we are back to the how do we get one then???????I think the point that aziz is (wisely ) making is that of his list only a couple were projected to be #1s. Just because eckblad is "projected" to be #1 doesn't mean he'll be any more than a plumber (nothing wrong with plumbers, in case I'm offending anyone). The #17, historically speaking, has just as much a chance. So does the second rounder, etc. So keep as many of your pics as possible. Now, the trade being proposed /talked about is one pick for one pick so this particular line of argument might not actually be relevant. You're still throwing the same number of hats in the ring (just presumably a better hat). I think the point bring made, though, is that you ultimately have the same chance with the #17 (projected or not) as you do with the #1 when it comes to dmen. So to then throw in your best runner and your best existing defenseman... I'm sorry, I'm not buying. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJgoal Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 Ok so i'm open to hear how you would suggest how the Flyers get them a #1 Weber type Dman then. You take the player you have rated the best when it comes time to draft. Trade up if you really like a guy, but don't dismantle your team chasing the "OMG can't miss" player because chances are he will miss. Do you know how many guys NASHVILLE drafted in 2003 before Weber? three. Suter, Kevin Klein, and Konstantin Glasachev. Even they didn't know what they were getting when he was picked. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OccamsRazor Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 He was a can't miss, Chris-Pronger level defenseman. And really honestly that term doesn't even exist there is no such thing as a can't miss type i know it is thrown around a lot to make points but the draft is a gamble. Tim Couch says hello and then the Eagles take McNabb with the very next pick. But to me the NHL is the riskiest because you're dealing with kids at 18 instead of men in the NFL at 21 or 22. And those 4 years matter but even then it isn't a perfected science and never will be. And just so that we are clear i'm on the fence with weather it is worth it to trade up to get Ekblad It will be costly but i would i think be just as happy keeping everything the Flyers already have and just seeing what falls to #17 and taking the best player there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ruxpin Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 By the way, I'm sure most of you know my overall feelings about Coburn, so you might appreciate how disgusted I am to have now several times referred to him as "our best defenseman!" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OccamsRazor Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 (edited) the same way nashville got their #1 weber type dman. luck. Yes that would help and PATIENCE letting the kids grow into their roles because i maybe one of the few but i think Morin's ceiling could be that #1 type really...it will take luck too. it's luck. the flyers haven't had it that i think we can completely agree on just see 2007 when they sucked bad and still didn't get the #1 overall who could have been Kane. Edited June 23, 2014 by OccamsRazor Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aziz Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 In 2002, the Flyers acquired the 4th overall pick for Ruslan Fedotenko and two seconds. aaaaand used that pick on pitkanen. described at the time as: "Close behind Bouwmeester in Red Line's pecking order is Finland's huge and mobile Joni Pitkanen, a mix of power, offensive skill, and toughness. Pitkanen is a certain top-five overall selection and has the skills to be a No. 1 defenseman in the NHL." "D Joni Pitkanen, Karpat. Skill with size (6'3" 198) and grit. Pitkanen has a lot of offensive potential but his defensive game is what will get him into the EHSL. Could ultimately be a 40-50 point blueliner but in the meantime is a great hitter and shot blocker. Had a very solid WJC tournament. Outlook: #2/3 defenseman." the reality of the admittedly talented pitkanen really wasn't as much fun to have on the team as the projections. to me, draft day comes, i watch the first round hoping for some crazy moves from someone, and then put the players the flyers drafted out of my head. if they pop up again one day as new additions to the team, then great, i'm interested. until that actually happens, though, i try to tie as little hope to them as possible. they are background details until they aren't. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OccamsRazor Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 By the way, I'm sure most of you know my overall feelings about Coburn, so you might appreciate how disgusted I am to have now several times referred to him as "our best defenseman!" Yes i do we've had this conversation and i to hate saying that. Especially after he being directly responsible for the two goals score against the Flyers verse NY is game 7.....yes i wish i could forget. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vanflyer Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 It's coming from people I completely respect so I'm honestly not saying that to be insulting, but people have a serious case of "oooo Shiney!" going on. I thought the same thing and of course mean no disrespect either. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pilldoc Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 Nature of the beast when you're dealing with young folks and to me hockey is one of the riskiest because like you stated you're drafting an 18 year old kid unlike in the NFL you're drafting a grown man almost at 21 or 22 or even 23 maybe....so it is waaaay harder to project i think. . But to me the NHL is the riskiest because you're dealing with kids at 18 instead of men in the NFL at 21 or 22. And those 4 years matter but even then it isn't a perfected science and never will be. DING DING DING...... I believe we have a winner. I think these statements are the crux of the argument. For the most part we are drafting 17,18,19 yr olds. No one can predict how they will be playing in 4-5 years. Seriously it is a crap shoot. Yes we have tools (such as a good scouting department) to help make the best informed decision as possible, but in reality NO ONE knows how these players will pan out down the road. The old adage is true....you either pay now or pay later, Folks as this debate moves forward, I am literally on the fence. There are good arguments made on both sides. My heart says go for it....while my brain says hold on. IMO I just think Florida is going to want a kings ransom in order for us to draft Ekblad. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OccamsRazor Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 Folks as this debate moves forward, I am literally on the fence. There are good arguments made on both sides. My heart says go for it....while my brain says hold on. This exactly. I'm on the fence to because i don't believe in any sure thing and even though the Flyers scouting department has gotten better i still don't know if i can trust them with this decision. So i think i'd rather just play it safe and just stay at #17 and just see what will be there. Like FC and i agree on another thread there are going to be several good players there. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brelic Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 EVERY ONE IN THE DRAFT IS A GAMBLE ALL THE WAY TO THE LAST DAMN PICK! Yup. Good ol' Timonen was drafted last overall - 10th round, 250th pick. What I honestly wonder is if the Flyers' system is capable of coaxing their defensive picks into overachieving. We haven't seen any evidence of it. In fact, we've seen Coburn, an 8th overall pick, develop into a decent but unspectacular player. Could he have developed even further in, say, Nashville's system? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aziz Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 What I honestly wonder is if the Flyers' system is capable of coaxing their defensive picks into overachieving. We haven't seen any evidence of it. In fact, we've seen Coburn, an 8th overall pick, develop into a decent but unspectacular player. Could he have developed even further in, say, Nashville's system? that's a really good question. i tend to think it doesn't make a huge difference. after being drafted, weber went back to junior for a couple seasons, then half a season in the A, then he was a .5 p/g NHL player. there really isn't a whole lot of opportunity "education". i guess a team can have a conducive environment...but i think that effect tends to work most in the other direction. meaning a bad environment can hurt a player, but i don't know how much a good environment can push a player along. i think it tends to just let them be what they are. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vanflyer Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 (edited) So i think i'd rather just play it safe and just stay at #17 and just see what will be there. Richie (LW), Vertanen (LW), or Fleury (D) are all guys I would not mind moving up for. Depending which mock draft poll you look at they are between 7th and 11th overall. I think would could make that jump with a prospect out of the Phantoms (atkeson- I know he was undrafted, but I think one could argue he could have been a late 1st to early 2nd rounder- plus is developed and could step into a team like Cannucks, Carolina or Toronto- who hold the 6th, 7th and 8th picks) and our first. I would even go as far to say a Matt Read and then move Akeson into Reads role. Edited June 26, 2014 by Vanflyer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JackStraw Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 Yup. Good ol' Timonen was drafted last overall - 10th round, 250th pick. Wow. I didn't know that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
murraycraven Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 (edited) Yup. Good ol' Timonen was drafted last overall - 10th round, 250th pick. What I honestly wonder is if the Flyers' system is capable of coaxing their defensive picks into overachieving. We haven't seen any evidence of it. In fact, we've seen Coburn, an 8th overall pick, develop into a decent but unspectacular player. Could he have developed even further in, say, Nashville's system? That is the key here for me too Brelic... I am not selling off valuable assets to get something that is an unknown at this point. We finally have defensive prospects that could very well turn into very good players in a few years. The key: development. Do the Flyers have the staff in place to actually develop a true #1 defenseman? Some of it is luck but development of the Player is key... As for selling the farm for Ekblad? I would not do it... I think he is going to be a very good defenseman but if you are selling off a decent portion of your youth you better be sure he is going to be a franchise type player. If not we only set ourselves back a few years... Edited June 26, 2014 by murraycraven Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mojo1917 Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 Here's a question, was Doughty "can't miss" ? i know he was high draft pick, were people all twitterpated over him ? because that's who you sell the farm for...but do you do it before he's really Drew Doughty ? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
murraycraven Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 Here's a question, was Doughty "can't miss" ? i know he was high draft pick, were people all twitterpated over him ? because that's who you sell the farm for...but do you do it before he's really Drew Doughty ? I would say he was a "cant miss" in 2008 which was a pretty strong draft class. Stamkos, Doughty, Bogosian, Pietrangelo, Schenn - yes Schenn! :wacko: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JackStraw Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 I would say he was a "cant miss" in 2008 which was a pretty strong draft class. Stamkos, Doughty, Bogosian, Pietrangelo, Schenn - yes Schenn! :wacko: I think he was at least as much of a "can't miss" as Seth Jones. I remember that there was some talk that he might even go first overall ahead of Stamkos. Not much, but some. It was also a pretty strong draft for defensemen and he was the clear choice among them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
murraycraven Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 I think he was at least as much of a "can't miss" as Seth Jones. I remember that there was some talk that he might even go first overall ahead of Stamkos. Not much, but some. It was also a pretty strong draft for defensemen and he was the clear choice among them. I would say he is a can't miss now! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Howie58 Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 Howdy: In the for what it is worth heading, this morning's MIami Herald has an article in which Tallon hints at willingness to move a draft pick to build a more respectable team. The new owner wants to spend more but expects results and feels the accumulation of draft picks needs to materialize. Peace, Howie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JackStraw Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 I would say he is a can't miss now! Yeah, way to go out on a limb there mc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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