Sharks 1st Round Pick: Nikolay Goldobin

[J0e Th0rnton]

Looking deeper into the pick, and hearing Wilson's comments on him, I am starting to really like the pick.

 

Was 7th in OHL scoring, and the only people above him his own age or less were McDavid, and DalColle, and he was on one of the worst teams in the OHL with little help and outscoring guys who were drafted over a year prior high in the first round. highest scoring ES player at the draft. His knocks are that he is an all offense player.

 

Wilson commented that Sarnia played him way more icetime than they should have because they had nobody else who can score, and that his focus was offense because nobody else could. Historically, the Sharks have done well turning guys into two way players.

 

 

Looks like he may be a gem of a player.

 

 

[jammer2]

@J0e Th0rnton  One stat that stood out, Goldobin lead all eligible CHL'ers in points at even strength. That is a *lot* of star power that he outscored playing 5 on 5...a *very* encouraging sign IMHO. My gut says you found a star.

[Podein25]

Looking deeper into the pick, and hearing Wilson's comments on him, I am starting to really like the pick.

Was 7th in OHL scoring, and the only people above him his own age or less were McDavid, and DalColle, and he was on one of the worst teams in the OHL with little help and outscoring guys who were drafted over a year prior high in the first round. highest scoring ES player at the draft. His knocks are that he is an all offense player.

Wilson commented that Sarnia played him way more icetime than they should have because they had nobody else who can score, and that his focus was offense because nobody else could. Historically, the Sharks have done well turning guys into two way players....

They have their work cut out for them. I own him in fantasy, so obviously I like him.

But one scout said this about him: "Pretty with the puck. Pretty worthless without it."

Edited July 7, 2014 by Podein25

[jammer2]

@Podein25  I think it was worth the risk considering where they got him. You can teach defense, you can't teach goal scoring. I'm assuming he's a willing student or I don't think San Jose makes the pick.

[J0e Th0rnton]

@J0e Th0rnton  One stat that stood out, Goldobin lead all eligible CHL'ers in points at even strength. That is a *lot* of star power that he outscored playing 5 on 5...a *very* encouraging sign IMHO. My gut says you found a star.

Yeah, I was happy with that.

Given he had little to no star power to work with on the worst team in the OHL

 

They have their work cut out for them. I own him in fantasy, so obviously I like him.

But one scout said this about him: "Pretty with the puck. Pretty worthless without it."

That's why I liked Wilson's quote on him being overused and usually down goals trying to score.

 

@Podein25  I think it was worth the risk considering where they got him. You can teach defense, you can't teach goal scoring. I'm assuming he's a willing student or I don't think San Jose makes the pick.

I have seen guys never expected to learn to score get taught lol. Ryane Clowe, Mike Knuble. Just put him with Joe Thornton!

 

At lot of times they say he was making great passes his non-star teammates just did not expect because they do not think on the same level, and getting into prime scoring areas only to have teammates not realize it, etc

 

I am excited to see what he can do with players who can actually think the game offensively, rather than shrubs.

 

38 goals and 94 points on the worst team in the league, with no other draft Candidates but DeAngelo. The only other producing forward on the team was 19 year old Nick Latta(Undrafted) with 38 goals and 66 points.

 

http://www.fearthefin.com/2014/7/1/5852208/2014-nhl-draft-nikolay-goldobin-could-prove-to-be-a-steal-at-27th

So how was Goldobin still on the board when the Sharks picked at 27th? The so-called "Russian factor" likely had quite a bit to do with it as NHL teams remain paranoid that Russian players will abandon North America for the KHL at their first opportunity or simply never agree to contract terms with their NHL club. If Nikolay Goldobin was instead named Nicholas Goldstein and hailed from Regina, Saskatchewan, it's very possible he would have been a top-ten pick. Beyond that, his gaudy minus-30 plus-minus rating fed into concerns about his defensive ability (and, let's be honest, widely-held stereotypes about Russian players didn't help in this area). Here's the thing about Goldobin's plus-minus, though: Sarnia was, as mentioned above, godawful. The team as a whole gave up 130 more goals than they allowed, scoring just 36% of the even-strength goals in their games.

 

When attempting to use goal-based plus-minus to evaluate Goldobin's defense, it's far more useful to gauge where he stood relative to his team. When Goldobin was off the ice during even-strength play, Sarnia scored just 27.6% of the goals. When he was on the ice at evens, that improved to a 46.7% goal share. That massive 19.1 percentage point improvement was the best of any CHLer drafted this weekend. Whatever Goldobin's defensive failings, they don't seem to have translated into worse on-ice results as the Sting were significantly better at outscoring their opponents with Goldobin on the ice than off it. As Joshua Ho-Sang, another elite talent who was drafted lower than his skill level probably warranted, told ESPN, "Either I play defense or I have the puck a lot 5-on-5. Either one of those is a version of defense." When Goldobin was on the ice, Sarnia had the puck a lot 5-on-5.

That's not to say there are no legitimate concerns about Goldobin. For one, he averaged an estimated 27.7 minutes of ice time per game as Sarnia largely deployed just three forward lines and two defense pairings for much of the season. That's an absurdly high total for a forward and very likely helped inflate Goldobin's production a bit. Goldobin is also an early October birthday, making him older than most of the first-time draft-eligible prospects selected this weekend, meaning he probably has less room to improve and develop than many of his peers. And despite the minus-30 being an inaccurate portrayal of his defensive value, Goldobin likely will need to remain in junior for at least another season to work on gaining strength and defensive awareness.

[Podein25]

@Podein25 I think it was worth the risk considering where they got him. You can teach defense, you can't teach goal scoring. I'm assuming he's a willing student or I don't think San Jose makes the pick.

Fair enough. And true. FWIW the scout who made that comment had him ranked 18th.

We'll see. But I think it's even money that he ends up in the KHL.

[J0e Th0rnton]

Fair enough. And true. FWIW the scout who made that comment had him ranked 18th.

We'll see. But I think it's even money that he ends up in the KHL.

I dunno man. He made a choice to jump to North America as a 16 year old to play 2 years in North America's juniors because he wants to play in the NHL.

 

We shall see. How much worse is the KHL from playing in the AHL for development?

 

I was amazed he played on Team Cherry during the prospects all star games and was Team Cherry player of the game!

Edited July 7, 2014 by J0e Th0rnton

[jammer2]

@J0e Th0rnton  I missed the Cherry prospect game, but I heard he was Goldy was paired with Rienhart and just took that game over. The more I research and poke my nose in this pick, the more I like it from a Sharks perspective.

[Podein25]

I dunno man. He made a choice to jump to North America as a 16 year old to play 2 years in North America's juniors because he wants to play in the NHL.

We shall see. How much worse is the KHL from playing in the AHL for development?

I was amazed he played on Team Cherry during the prospects all star games and was Team Cherry player of the game!

Yeah I recall that. I thought the same about Burmistrov. He came over to play Jr in Canada, made it to the NHL, but at the first sign off adversity he jumped ship to the KHL. I just think that risk is there for all Russian players.

But I like that he went to SJ. If anyone can teach him how to play D and be a good pro it might be them, as you say.

[jammer2]

@Podein25 Burmistrov might just be one of those world class talents that never amount to anything because of being rushed a year to early. Then, on top of that, his team played him in the wrong spot, with the wrong linemates....never let him get comfortable in the right situation. A shame, cause that kid has mad skills.

[flyercanuck]

@jammer2

 

 Burmistrov was like a poor mans version of Datsyuk when he played in Barrie. Excellent skater, great defensively, soft hands. I thought the guy would be at least a very good 2nd line center in the NHL. 

 

@J0e Th0rnton

 

 There were a couple of Russian kids that would have been nice to take a chance on later in the first round. One thing is they certainly have some mad puck skills...They just scare the heck out of me once they get a contract.

[Podein25]

@Podein25 Burmistrov might just be one of those world class talents that never amount to anything because of being rushed a year to early. Then, on top of that, his team played him in the wrong spot, with the wrong linemates....never let him get comfortable in the right situation. A shame, cause that kid has mad skills.

Yeah Claude Noel really misused him. But at the time it was one of those situations similar to Couturier: Burms was better defensively than all the other centers he had, so he used him in that role out of sheer necessity. So understandable to an extent.

But what never made sense to me was that he never saw any PP time.

Because he was used wrongly, some Jets fans actually came to see him as typically Russian (lazy, selfish etc) when in fact he was probably their hardest working, most consistent forward.

[jammer2]

But what never made sense to me was that he never saw any PP time.

 

 You would figure even a complete dolt of a coach would see the talent Burmy and has and would utilize him on the top pp. It would have helped his confidence immensely, giving him the extra time and space to figure things out at the NHL level. His dynamic skating style and elite stickhandling would have created many, many scoring chances. What a waste.....it's things like this that made Noel an *ex* coach.....lol.