Arbitration update: Subban signs for 8 years

[hf101]

The Canadiens and PK Subban have failed to reach an agreement before the 9:00 AM deadline.  It was reported earlier that Subban was asking 8.5M and the Canadiens were offering 5.25M for a one year contract.  Lots of talk this week as a long term contract with Subban didn't happen. 

 

PK stated that he wanted to sign long term, however I would think that if that were the case the Canadiens would have been able to sign him prior to Arbitration with a long term contract. 

 

I think Subban will choose to leave as soon as he becomes a FA.  If  the Canadiens can't sign him they better be looking to for trading partners.

 

Subban has won the Norris Trophy in 2013, an Olympic gold medal at the Olympics, and is an offensive threat every time he hits the ice.   So what can the Canadiens say about Subban in arbitration that would keep the price south of the elite-level salary he would likely fetch on the open market?

[aziz]

So what can the Canadiens say about Subban in arbitration that would keep the price south of the elite-level salary he would likely fetch on the open market?

 

they can say that while his offensive game is almost unmatched, his defensive game is barely NHL-caliber.  that he doesn't deserve the money a true top flight #1 defenseman would get because his game is so unrounded.  he is a dramatic step down in overall utility from the theoretically comparable all-situations franchise defenders out there.  they can point out that even erik karlsson sees twice the shorthanded time that subban does, and kris letang three times.

 

in the end, they'll focus on the fact that he is not an answer to all defenseman-related questions, and as such should not be priced along side those that are.  he is of no use to montreal in some not-uncommon circumstances, and his value should be evaluated accordingly.  if shea weber and drew doughty are $7mil+ dmen, subban belongs some amount below that.  i figure karlsson and his $6mil ends up being the comparable, and he outscored subban by 20 points....

[fishbulb]

I can't believe MTL let this go to arbitration... what leverage could the possible have???   I predict they're going to pay close to max or at least more than they'd like.

 

Young?  check

Norris trophy? check

Olympic participation? check

tons of playoff points?  check

tons of regular season points? check

powerplay QB? check

 

While his 'defensive' game will certainly be why he doesn't get 'max' salary, his focus on that part is improving as well.  I don't really see his defensive game as a 'liability' anymore... it just doesn't compare to his offensive game.

 

 

All signs point to a HUUUUGE payday.  7mil at least.

 

silly decision imo.

Edited August 1, 2014 by fishbulb

[blocker]

they can say that while his offensive game is almost unmatched, his defensive game is barely NHL-caliber

 

I bet that's  their position.   And, I'm sure Meehan will point out the fact that his overall ice-times got significantly enlarged during the playoffs.  The Bell Center is going to be sold out during the regular season, whether or not Subban plays.  But, it's an easy argument that they wouldn't have gone so far into the playoffs without him.  

 

I think Bergevin screwed up when he didn't sign Subban to a long term contract last time.  Subban soldiered up when he signed that "bridge" contract.  Now, he's worth a whole lot more money, and Canadiens should man up and pay him.  If they don't,  he's gone in a couple years.   

 

If I was Bergevin, I'd have canned Therrien.  He's a fool.  Always has been, always will be.

[blocker]

A little speculation.

 

What if you were the owner of a team in a city with a large black population?   What if you had a chance to get a bona fide star?  Who happens to be black.   How much could he be worth from a marketing standpoint? 

 

You could promote the hell out of him.  He plays an attention grabbing game.  Knows when to shut his mouth.  Has a squeaky clean reputation.   Comes through in the clutch.

 

I bet there are some owners considering the possibilities.  

[J0e Th0rnton]

they can say that while his offensive game is almost unmatched, his defensive game is barely NHL-caliber.  that he doesn't deserve the money a true top flight #1 defenseman would get because his game is so unrounded.  he is a dramatic step down in overall utility from the theoretically comparable all-situations franchise defenders out there.  they can point out that even erik karlsson sees twice the shorthanded time that subban does, and kris letang three times.

 

in the end, they'll focus on the fact that he is not an answer to all defenseman-related questions, and as such should not be priced along side those that are.  he is of no use to montreal in some not-uncommon circumstances, and his value should be evaluated accordingly.  if shea weber and drew doughty are $7mil+ dmen, subban belongs some amount below that.  i figure karlsson and his $6mil ends up being the comparable, and he outscored subban by 20 points....

Montreal can say that to his face all they want. In the end, they will get a 1 year contract from this arbitration hearing and lose him for NOTHING to free agency if they keep lowballing him.

[hf101]

they can say that while his offensive game is almost unmatched, his defensive game is barely NHL-caliber.  that he doesn't deserve the money a true top flight #1 defenseman would get because his game is so unrounded.  he is a dramatic step down in overall utility from the theoretically comparable all-situations franchise defenders out there.  they can point out that even erik karlsson sees twice the shorthanded time that subban does, and kris letang three times.

 

in the end, they'll focus on the fact that he is not an answer to all defenseman-related questions, and as such should not be priced along side those that are.  he is of no use to montreal in some not-uncommon circumstances, and his value should be evaluated accordingly.  if shea weber and drew doughty are $7mil+ dmen, subban belongs some amount below that.  i figure karlsson and his $6mil ends up being the comparable, and he outscored subban by 20 points....

 

I dunno aziz, looking at the other d-men with a cap hit greater than Karlssons...... Subban's corsi numbers look comparable even strength.  There really isn't much in these stats to suggest he isn't worth the money.

http://www.extraskater.com/players/possession?players=716,49,22,162,192,81,243,319,118,204&sit=ev&sort=cf_pct_rel

 

I disagree that he is a step down defensively and his numbers are not as strong on the Penalty Kill   --  

http://www.extraskater.com/players/possession?players=716,49,22,162,192,81,243,319,118,204&sit=sh&sort=cf_pct_rel

[hf101]

Apparently,

 

@TSNBobMcKenzie

Subban's eight year deal with MTL has an AAV of $9M. #TSN

[JR Ewing]

LOL...

 

It's Bergevin's own damn fault for digging his heels in and insisting on that bridge contract instead of doing the smart thing and signing to what would have been a much better value for the team. Stevie Wonder could have seen that it would cost the Habs a whole pile of cap space.

[fishbulb]

Not surprised AT ALL.  MTL f'd up by not coming out with a 7.5-8 mil per  contract right out of the gate.

 

For some reason they consistently try to play hardball with PK. 

 

Dumb, Dumb move imo.

[JR Ewing]

Not surprised AT ALL.  MTL f'd up by not coming out with a 7.5-8 mil per  contract right out of the gate.

 

For some reason they consistently try to play hardball with PK. 

 

Dumb, Dumb move imo.

 

They were so so stupid here... They opened these negotiations with what they should have locked him up long term with before. Couldn't have bungled this deal worse than if they had tried to.

[doom88]

 

Apparently,

 

@TSNBobMcKenzie

Subban's eight year deal with MTL has an AAV of $9M. #TSN

 

 

O.U.C.H.

 

The MTL GM's cap savvy standing just sunk to Homercoaster status.  Full NMC too (not that it matters with that contract)?

[J0e Th0rnton]

I expected him to get 8 per year or so. But I can see 9 because they hardballed him and treated him like he was not worth it. On the open Market, he would get HUGE money thrown at him, and they know they could lose him and get NOTHING in return.

 

So, what it came down to was.....should not have given him a bridge deal knowing he was showing such signs of breaking out. They could have had him locked up for a lot less cap hit , but they chose not to chance it. Now they reap  the whirlwind.

[nossagog]

Wow, so what was that whole last work stoppage all about? $9M a year. Never really been a fan of his as I think he is severely lacking in defense altogether. $9M per year seems a bit too much, they better hope his defensive game begins to show up.

[JR Ewing]

Wow, so what was that whole last work stoppage all about? $9M a year. Never really been a fan of his as I think he is severely lacking in defense altogether. $9M per year seems a bit too much, they better hope his defensive game begins to show up.

 

These days, when I hear people complain about defense, I think of something Darryl Sutter said in March. When asked about the Kings always defending he said it's a

 

misconception. The big thing in today’s game is you have to be able forecheck and backcheck, and you have to have the puck. You can’t give the puck up. We don’t play in our zone, so there’s not much defending...

 

The game’s changed. They think there’s defending in today’s game. Nah, it’s how much you have the puck. Teams that play around in their own zone they they’re defending but they’re generally getting scored on or taking face-offs and they need a goalie to stand on his head if that’s the way they play.”

 

It also makes think of something I read from Dave Tippett back in 2012, when he was talking about how the Coyotes starting tracking how their players spent their ice time

 

"We had a player that was supposed to be a great, shut-down defenseman. He was supposedly the be-all, end-all of defensemen. But when you did a 10-game analysis of him, you found out he was defending all the time because he can’t move the puck.

Then we had another guy, who supposedly couldn’t defend a lick. Well, he was defending only 20 percent of the time because he’s making good plays out of our end. He may not be the strongest defender, but he’s only doing it 20 percent of the time. So the equation works out better the other way. I ended up trading the other defenseman."

 

The types of player that Sutter and Tippett are talking about, who impact a game by their ability to gain possession, move the puck out of their zone, and keep it that way more often... They're talking about players like P.K. Subban.

[Podein25]

@JR Ewing

Fantastic post. Matt Carle says hello.

[jammer2]

they can say that while his offensive game is almost unmatched, his defensive game is barely NHL-caliber.

 

 

 Yeah, I guess that plan went well....they can say that all they want, P.K can say SHOW ME THE MONEY!!!!!!!!

 

 P.K has grown into an intense defender, who wants the puck BADLY when it's up for grabs in his own end.. He hustles more on defense than any Flyer does.

Edited August 3, 2014 by jammer2

[flyercanuck]

I didn't have a problem with the bridge deal. Show me what you're capable of. If a guy is earning his money, then he's worth it.

 

 But offering him just over 5 when he's asking for over 8, then paying him 9 a year is going complete Homer economics. Why not just burn $4 million dollars of your employers money in front of him?

[Polaris922]

Overpaid. Under thought. Owners are idiots. See you at the next lockout.

[MadDevil]

I really don't see anything wrong with the contract. Yeah it's a lot of money, but considering they're buying UFA years, the cap is going up, and defensemen get money thrown at them, I think it's reasonable. Anybody who doesn't think he would have gotten that on the open market is delusional.

And the next lockout is coming, regardless of whether or not this contract was signed. Why wouldn't there be one? The NHL has become more profitable than ever after missing a season and a half of games in the last decade. The fans have come back like crack addicts needing their fix. What negative consequences have the owners actually suffered after the last two lockouts?

[flyerrod]

He hustles more on defense than any Flyer does

 

I have serious doubts about that jammer. Subban is good at a lot of things but playing actual defense is not one of them. I give it 3 months before the locker room is in shambles due to his child-like me,me,me attitude. At least they (the habs) have allowed themselves some leeway to send him packing( the NMC clause does not kick in until 16/17) but with the money they paid him it is going to cost them money just to move him. Sound familiar to anyone?

[jammer2]

@flyerrod  I may have worded it wrong, but this much I'm sure of...P.K has a higher compete level in his own zone than any Flyer d-man...and he plays with a sense of reckless desperation....he wants loose pucks more than life itself. I'm not exaggerating either, this guy will work till there is no wind left in his lungs to get a loose puck....all that crap about bad defense, it's not true. His defensive game has grown by leaps and bounds, it has evolved. I will say this much, he CARES about defense, it's very important to him. Anyone who says different is not watching enough Hab games. I seen him play over 10 times last year, so I'm speaking from experience.

[flyerrod]

@jammer2

 

Whilst I am guilty of not watching a lot of Habs games, the ones that I have he does nothing defensively. He does a have cannon of a shot from the point on the PP though. Just watch him stand there and beat his stick on the ice waiting for the puck to come to him and then get all boo boo lipped if it does not. Good offensive instincts, yes....defensive, not so much....

[jammer2]

@flyerrod  Plus minus is obviously not the be all and end all of stats, and I agree it's one of the more misleading stats, but....

 

 2012...+12

 2013...+9

 Last year he was -4....that does not sound like a brutal defensive player to me. I'm really surprised his plus minus went down, cause his defense has gotten much better.

[jammer2]

Good offensive instincts, yes....defensive, not so much....

 

 This article on P.K's defensive prowess directly disagrees with your statement....a nice enlightening read....

 

 http://nhlnumbers.com/2013/11/14/pk-subbans-defensive-game-and-team-canada