Will We Be Surprised on the Up- or Downside by Turkey Day?

[Howie58]

Greetings:

 

It's the slow time, so I reckoned my filler couldn't be any better or worse than others.  

 

There are a lot of question marks entering the season.  We all know that, and the consensus among most of us is that this is probably a marginal playoff club.  But we could be surprised.  The question--will it be to the up- or downside?

 

Upside Case:  Young forwards gel, the D is not as bad as thought, MASEM is in the top third of GAA and Percentage, the Berube Effect isn't one season.

 

Downside Case:  The forwards fail to gel (top line takes a step back), the D is a group of Kukkonens, MASEM flames or burns out, Berube's impact is short-term, and to top it off...the injury bug exacts a heavy toll.

 

I view the next two seasons as a big transition and have very limited expectations about this year.  I am curious to get a read from the denizens where they see this going down.

 

Best,

 

Howie

[doom88]

I think they will be in the top half of the East despite a few injuries and an inconsistent top line. This isn't a bad team, and they made the playoffs last year despite significant injuries and an in-season coaching change.

They make the playoffs.

[brelic]

I think we'll be outside the playoff bracket by Thanksgiving. Not too far out, mind you.

 

Here's who I see as being ahead of us in the standings:

 

Pittsburgh

Boston

Montreal

Tampa Bay

Detroit

NY Rangers

New Jersey

Toronto

Columbus

Washington

 

I think we'll be somewhere in the Columbus/Washington range.

 

We basically know what we have in goal and we know (for better or worse) what we have on the blueline, Del Zotto notwithstanding.

 

The biggest remaining question mark for me is the top line. Who will replace the kind of fight-for-space, dirty garbage goals Hartnell used to score? Who will take all the hits along the boards and cycle the puck to give G and V some space? The Schenn experiment could be a big flop, and if it is, there's no one on this squad that would appear to be a natural fit there. That could mean G and V get smothered and take production hits.

[jammer2]

@brelic  If Braydon fails on the top line (I think he gets the first shot), I think Raffl has the ability to step right in and provide the kind of play that is needed with G and V. As I've said before, Raffl is one interesting character, he has this chameleon quality to his game, having the ability to adapt to every situation that is expected of him.

[brelic]

@brelic  If Braydon fails on the top line (I think he gets the first shot), I think Raffl has the ability to step right in and provide the kind of play that is needed with G and V. As I've said before, Raffl is one interesting character, he has this chameleon quality to his game, having the ability to adapt to every situation that is expected of him.

 

Yeah, Raffl didn't look out of place in the limited time he had with Giroux and Voracek last year. 

 

But there's a big difference between not looking out of place and being a real contributing member of a line. I wonder if Raffl has the offensive game to go along with what you would expect of a top 3 player. It's still too early to tell, but chances are that he does not. I would expect a top line winger to be in the 60 point range at the low end. In that regard, Hartnell was a borderline top 3.

 

Schenn at least has the pedigree to reach those totals - whether or not he ever will is another question mark!

 

Umberger does not belong on the top line, IMO.

 

I imagine if Mueller were left-handed (or was comfortable playing on the left side), Hextall might have pursued him earlier. Voracek shoots left but plays his off-wing, and I don't think I'd want to disrupt his game.

 

It's a big gaping hole to leave unfilled for your superstar captain and top winger.

[canoli]

I think the Flyers' chances depend a lot on how well Vinny and BSchenn play. The rest of the roster we kind of know what to expect (with the usual ? re: the D). BSchenn is in a make-or-break situation this year; if he stumbles out of the gate or if that top line doesn't click but meanwhile Lecavalier is holding his own on the 2nd line..BSchenn is in a tough spot.

 

As long as the D isn't terrible I think Berube's idea of remaking the team into a more puck-possession, quick-transition type can work. Mason / Emery will be fine, at least as good as last year. Other than the PO series I don't remember losing points because of goaltending.

 

I don't share your (Jammer) confidence in Raffl on the top line. I realize it's early in his NHL career but so far he's looking more like another Darrel Powe than a top 6 forward who can skate with Giroux. Then again the coaches left Hartnell there for years so who knows? Maybe a grinder type, a good 2-way guy who hustles but doesn't score much can work, open up the ice for G and Jake.

[jammer2]

I don't share your (Jammer) confidence in Raffl on the top line. I realize it's early in his NHL career but so far he's looking more like another Darrel Powe than a top 6 forward who can skate with Giroux.

 

 I see some promise in Raffl. I think we have only seen the tip of the iceberg with this guy. He had to adjust to a brand new country, brand new league and some brand new roles and he did everything that was asked of him and more. When this guy gets some open ice and some more confidence, I think he starts to fill the net, or at least take on more of an offensive role.

[murraycraven]

I think we'll be outside the playoff bracket by Thanksgiving. Not too far out, mind you.

Here's who I see as being ahead of us in the standings:

Pittsburgh

Boston

Montreal

Tampa Bay

Detroit

NY Rangers

New Jersey

Toronto

Columbus

Washington

I think we'll be somewhere in the Columbus/Washington range.

We basically know what we have in goal and we know (for better or worse) what we have on the blueline, Del Zotto notwithstanding.

The biggest remaining question mark for me is the top line. Who will replace the kind of fight-for-space, dirty garbage goals Hartnell used to score? Who will take all the hits along the boards and cycle the puck to give G and V some space? The Schenn experiment could be a big flop, and if it is, there's no one on this squad that would appear to be a natural fit there. That could mean G and V get smothered and take production hits.

Man, stole the words out of my mouth Berlic... Could not agree more and nothing more to say other than RJ is a better skater than Hartnell and take less penalties - which is nice but won't translate to wins IMO.

Schenn on the top line will not work... Sorry but I just don't see it.

[murraycraven]

I think the Flyers' chances depend a lot on how well Vinny and BSchenn play. The rest of the roster we kind of know what to expect (with the usual ? re: the D). BSchenn is in a make-or-break situation this year; if he stumbles out of the gate or if that top line doesn't click but meanwhile Lecavalier is holding his own on the 2nd line..BSchenn is in a tough spot.

As long as the D isn't terrible I think Berube's idea of remaking the team into a more puck-possession, quick-transition type can work. Mason / Emery will be fine, at least as good as last year. Other than the PO series I don't remember losing points because of goaltending.

I don't share your (Jammer) confidence in Raffl on the top line. I realize it's early in his NHL career but so far he's looking more like another Darrel Powe than a top 6 forward who can skate with Giroux. Then again the coaches left Hartnell there for years so who knows? Maybe a grinder type, a good 2-way guy who hustles but doesn't score much can work, open up the ice for G and Jake.

Agree about Raffl Canali.... He is not a top 6 forward yet and that line would be incredibly small.....

[The Quigster]

Raffl reminds me of Nodl,works hard,but scores  minimal goals. Some how Simmonds works hard and scores frequently.

[brelic]

Man, stole the words out of my mouth Berlic... Could not agree more and nothing more to say other than RJ is a better skater than Hartnell and take less penalties - which is nice but won't translate to wins IMO.

Schenn on the top line will not work... Sorry but I just don't see it.

 

 

I don't know about Schenn - he could surprise us. I think this is a critical year in his development, and if he gets a shot on the top line, I hope he makes the most of his opportunity. 

 

He's easily the worst center on this team, and this is when playing sheltered minutes. So in a sense, I really hope he works out on wing

 

Schenn/Giroux/Voracek

Raffl/Lecavalier/Simmonds

Umberger/Couturier/Read

Bellemare/Laughton/Akeson

Rinaldo

 

That's not half bad. I mean, I doubt Berube would ice such a green 4th line, but possibly in some other configuration. Unless Laughton really impresses, I'm guessing he starts with the Phantoms anyway.

[murraycraven]

Agree about Schenn. Time for him to shine and if you can't do it with G and Jake it will be interesting to see what happens.

I hope it pans out bc I really rather home be on the wing. He is a face off disaster...

[jammer2]

   Another thing to remember when discussing Raffl, his point totals always go up from one year to the next at every level he has played at.  He is 25, so not a kid by any means, but his stats for 2012 jumped out. He had 24 goals in 48 games in the Swedish Elite League. That is one of the very best leagues in the world. I think he is a natural scorer but the jump to a different continent combined with being a relative unknown in North America, he had to play in whatever role was assigned to him.

 

 Being a newcomer to North America....and the NHL, he still totaled 9 goals in 68 games, that is not to shabby when factoring in everything. If this guy was placed on the top line for next year, I guarantee he pops in 20+ goals. Just my gut instinct there. I figure B.Schenn will pot in 20+ goals again on the second line, so it makes sense to maximize the goal potential and place Raffl on the top line. Then you have 2 young 20 goal scorers instead of one. I'll get some laughs, but Raffl has the upside/potential to score 30 goals in the league....it's all a question of ice time, confidence, and of course linemates. He will be MUCH more effective this year than last, will be a lot more comfortable.

 

 http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=93028

[canoli]

All good points J, it's certainly possible he blossoms into a 75-point player. He's got a terrific work ethic and some vision offensively. I don't mean to knock him, I like him. But the Flyers were not a good 5 on 5 team last year. Some of that was Hartnell dragging down Giroux / Voracek, some was Vinny doing absolutely nothing. This year I don't want to do the "wait and see" approach on the top line with Raffl. I think BSchenn should get a long (2 months min) look and I hope he's able to run with it.

 

Raffl could become a solid NHL forward. The only "but" is remembering so many times last year where his hard work and vision got his line into scoring position and they came up empty. On a 3rd or 4th line that isn't so terrible, on the top line or the 2nd line those missed opportunities turn into losses. We need 2 stable scoring lines this year not another mix-n-match season with BSchenn, Lecav and Raffl all taking turns trying to be Giroux's winger.

 

 

I figure B.Schenn will pot in 20+ goals again on the second line, so it makes sense to maximize the goal potential and place Raffl on the top line.

 

 

I know this will come out ratty (like the rap Carter used to get ) but BSchenn's 20 goals were mostly forgettable. The Flyers got him for 2 years at a good price. Hopefully he makes it easy and by Thanksgiving he's in a groove. The coaches will get a good idea how his year will go when they see him in camp. He should blow away the competition for that top spot. If he doesn't..it'll probably be another forgettable 20-goal season. He knows better than anyone what's at stake this year.

[AJgoal]

I'm bearish on this year. Last year, this team was a win over Washington away from missing the playoffs entirely. I anticipated this year being a transition year as Hextall begins to trim some of the fat to build the team into something a bit less cobbled together than previous versions. That's exactly what he has done, but the result is a team that is weaker than last year's. Umberger is a downgrade from Hartnell. The defense is still the defense, without Timonen's leadership and calming influence. VLC is still here, rooted in the 2nd line center role (or the pressbox). MDZ is a wild card. I don't see any of the young prospects getting a real shot at the big club.

 

None of this is necessarily a bad thing, though. There appears to be a direction, even though it will take a few seasons to get there. The Hartnell trade gave Hextall cap flexibility a few years earlier than he would have had. He didn't add any free agents on long contracts, looking for a quick fix. He didn't gut the team in a trade trying to fill a need by creating two more. Laughton, Hagg, Morin, et al. will have ample opportunity to get big minutes in juniors or the AHL to work on their games and develop. None of these are bad things, but I see the result as a team on the outside looking in (barely). I'm ok with that.

[murraycraven]

None of these are bad things, but I see the result as a team on the outside looking in (barely). I'm ok with that.

 

Agree 100% AJ... great post...

[mojo1917]

I know this will come out ratty (like the rap Carter used to get ) but BSchenn's 20 goals were mostly forgettable.

 

I think its funny we're all ragging on a 20 goal scorer.  However this is a 20 goal scorer who we traded our best player for ...so I'm with all those in the camp saying Brayden needs to step it up this year.  

 

I would also like to point out that while his 20 goals were largely forgettable they were also independent of Giroux,  B didn't play with G very often, even on the powerplay, so his forgettable 20 goals were actually one of the few areas where the team had goal scoring depth. While our team did have "scoring depth" in theory in reality a lot of the goals were generated in some way by #28 , I think either Rad or Brelic pointed this out last year.  

 

If Schenn finds his groove on G's wing it still might actually be a bad thing for the Flyers making them an even more top heavy "one line " team.

 

just want to throw that ray of sunshine out there today.

[Howie58]

I'm bearish on this year. Last year, this team was a win over Washington away from missing the playoffs entirely. I anticipated this year being a transition year as Hextall begins to trim some of the fat to build the team into something a bit less cobbled together than previous versions. That's exactly what he has done, but the result is a team that is weaker than last year's. Umberger is a downgrade from Hartnell. The defense is still the defense, without Timonen's leadership and calming influence. VLC is still here, rooted in the 2nd line center role (or the pressbox). MDZ is a wild card. I don't see any of the young prospects getting a real shot at the big club.

 

None of this is necessarily a bad thing, though. There appears to be a direction, even though it will take a few seasons to get there. The Hartnell trade gave Hextall cap flexibility a few years earlier than he would have had. He didn't add any free agents on long contracts, looking for a quick fix. He didn't gut the team in a trade trying to fill a need by creating two more. Laughton, Hagg, Morin, et al. will have ample opportunity to get big minutes in juniors or the AHL to work on their games and develop. None of these are bad things, but I see the result as a team on the outside looking in (barely). I'm ok with that.

Greetings;

 

I share AJ's take.  It's interesting how this thread has centered on the top line.  Agreed that it is time for Schenn to put up or shut up and his two-year deal speaks to that.  I am worried about goal. Even if Mason's "resurrection" is real, Emery's end-of-season performance suggested impaired mobility. I wonder if he is capable of 20 games in back-up/relief? If he doesn't work, we have to reach down to the Phantoms or waiver or Europe. I was surprised by the Emery re-up but as others have noted, that may have been a function of how goalies perceive this team as a destination in free agency (a graveyard).

 

I don't care too much about this season. Again, it is a transition.  In a perverse way, injuries may play a role by giving the youngins playing time.  I don't wish injuries on anyone but the Phantoms will have plenty of people worth a look-and-see.

 

We play in a tough division. Even the Islanders will be competitive I suppose.  Columbus is an up-and-comer.  New York and Pitt will always be tough.  Washington is likely to toughen under Trotz. It won't be easy.

 

Maybe I used the wrong date.  The trade deadline would give us a better read, particularly on the forward match-ups.  

 

Best,

Howie

[Bertmega]

I think Columbus is going to make some noise. 

 

Boston
Tampa Bay
Montreal
Pittsburgh
Columbus
NY Rangers
Flyers
Detroit
Washington

Gasp (Islanders)

[Podein25]

I think Columbus is going to make some noise. 

 

On paper I think that is a very good team. With prospects like Johansen blossoming, and with their D, they should be starting to be very tough to beat. I love their team speed and temp to their game. I also see a hard working team that is building a culture around that. I'm sure Hartnell will fit right in 

[murraycraven]

I'm sure Hartnell will fit right in

 

LOL!  Although, I am positive RJ will score 30 this year!!

[Podein25]

 I am positive RJ will score 30 this year!!

 

I'm not as pessimistic about RJ. I like his versatility. My expectations for points from him are low, but I expect him to play well for us and be good presence. 

[murraycraven]

I'm not as pessimistic about RJ. I like his versatility. My expectations for points from him are low, but I expect him to play well for us and be good presence. 

 

 

I agree to an extent I guess Pods... I think he is versatile but I really dont see him as an upgrade over Hartnell... I hope he is truly.  I would love to be proven wrong in this instance...

[Podein25]

@murraycraven

It's anybody's guess. We'll see. Maybe I'm hoping for a "Flyer-effect" - I think RJ loved being a Flyer and was unhappy to leave/happy to be back. His legs will feel younger than ever. For a while....lol

[murraycraven]

At pods... Maybe you are right and I hope you are. I think we are an easier team to play against without hartnell for sure. He was a terrible skater but played tough minutes and was not afraid to get into the dirty areas or go to to toe...

I like to joke about RJ just to get a rise out of some of his followers on here, but from a pure hockey standpoint, I don't thin he makes us a better team.

I like the shorter contract and versatility that he brings... But in the end he does not make us better. Just one man's perspective