murraycraven Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 I thought this was an outstanding read by Bill M today and could not agree more. When it comes to predicting this season I believe the 5-on-5 play is the key to success this year: FLYERS IMPROVEMENTS NEED TO START AT EVEN STRENGTHIf the Flyers are to remain a playoff team in 2014-15, it is imperative that they continue to improve their play at even strength. Power plays and penalty kills run hot and run cold over the course of the season, even for the best clubs in these categories. In the meantime, strong two-way play at five-on-five is the backbone of sustained success.When pundits talk about the keys to success in hockey, much of the focus is inevitably placed on goaltending and special teams. That's especially true in the playoffs. While these are important areas for a hockey club, teamwide five-on-five play is a better predictor of how far a team is likely to go in the postseason presuming it receives reasonably solid goaltending.Take a look at the NHL's five-on-five goal ratio rankings from the 2013-14 regular season. This is what you will see:1) Of the 16 teams that reached the 2014 postseason, 15 of them ranked in the top 16 NHL clubs in five-on-five goal ratio. Only the Flyers (17th overall at five-on-five) are not represented. Phoenix, ranked 15th, missed the playoffs.2) A goal will always be intrinsically worth more than a mere shot attempt, especially when a game is still up for grabs. Team goal differentials at even strength had a somewhat higher correlation than Fenwick Close statistics as to which clubs would made the playoffs. While the two categories are related, there were more outliers when it came to puck possession than the bottom line of actual goal differential at five-on-five.It is true that the eventual Stanley Cup champion Los Angeles Kings ranked first in Fenwick Close but were a relatively low-scoring team in the regular season before coming alive offensively in the playoffs. The powerhouse Chicago Blackhawks ranked second and the Eastern Conference champion Rangers ranked sixth.However, while 5-on-5 goal differential was a 15-out-16 predictor of the eventual playoff teams, Fenwick Close was a 12-for-16 predictor. Although the Kings scored just 2.42 goals per game (in all manpower situations) during the regular season, they gave up a mere 2.05 per game. Just as important, LA scored 1.28 even strength goals for every one they yielded; the 3rd-best ratio in the NHL last season.Having a puck possession advantage is important, of course, especially at even strength. No one can dispute that. Nevertheless, the bottom line will always be what a club actually does with (and without) the disc.Puck possession wasn't the problem for the New Jersey Devils last season. The Devils ranked fifth in Fenwick Close. The issue was that New Jersey struggled to actually put the puck in net enough to make it matter. The Devils were 20th in even strength goal differential.The Canucks ranked eighth in Fenwick Close but were one spot behind New Jersey in five-on-five goal differential. Likewise 12th-ranked Ottawa Senators and 14th-ranked Nashville Predators also missed the playoffs despite finishing in the top half of the league from a Fenwick Close standpoint. Ottawa was 19th in even-strength goal differential. The Preds were 25th.On the flip side, eventual Stanley Cup semifinalist Montreal ranked 16th in goal differential but 22nd in Fenwick Close. The Flyers ranked 23rd in Fenwick Close, while Western Conference playoff team Colorado ranked 27th. The Avs were ninth last season in goal differential at five-on-five.Strong puck possession numbers and favorable zone entries are a good starting place for five-on-five success but they are not the destination. The Flyers have plenty of room for improvement in all of these areas.3) Among the eight teams that went on to advance to the second round of the playoffs, seven of the eight ranked higher than their first-round opponent in even-strength goal differential during the regular season. The one outlier was Montreal (ranked 16th) sweeping Tampa Bay (ranked 7th).4) Within the actual eight first-round playoff series themselves, six saw team with a superior five-on-five goal ratio prevail in the series. One series (Los Angeles vs. San Jose) ended up with an equal number of even-strength goals scored in the series. Only Anaheim advanced despite being very slightly outscored by Dallas at even strength in the series. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Podein25 Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 @murraycravenThat's a lot of fancy words and numbers for a poor coal miner like me to process. Isn't it simpler to say: "the Flyers need to score more goals than their opponent"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
murraycraven Posted September 10, 2014 Author Share Posted September 10, 2014 @murraycravenThat's a lot of fancy words and numbers for a poor coal miner like me to process. Isn't it simpler to say: "the Flyers need to score more goals than their opponent"? more goals than opponent = win - you are correct! I think this Team needs to simply play better when it comes to even strength. They were terrible 5-on-5 which is going to be an issue if it continues. But yet... he who scores more wins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canoli Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 mama mia, f-e-n-w-i-c-k c-l-o-s-e. really? looking it up i see others call it "close fenwick." Either way the Flyers need to be better 5 on 5. I guess weakness at even strength is a symptom of bigger issues.... the brainless / panicky passing comes to mind, especially in our own end...passing the puck instead of attacking the net...that the Flyers have no one left who can shoot from the point and put it on net...etc. Even the Champs have weaknesses but the Flyers' are the fatal type for 5 on 5 success. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doom88 Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Can't get in a 5 on 5 rhythm when taking those Hartnell penalties. Or the periodically frustrated and childish Giroux ones.Clean up the stick penalties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Howie58 Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Greetings: I guess this is a comment on style of play as much as it is talent. I think we have been collectively angry with dumb penalties and the inability of the team to get out of its own end for ages. I guess the question is whether we draft/trade for size and ruggedness over competence in skating, shooting. I hope Hextall has a different approach. That said, Berube commented on the need to react faster as well. That's a coach acknowledging need for style change, to his credit. At some point this team has to stop juggling lines. I am no coach. But it seems we keep trying to figure out lines and line mates. The VLC think is only part of it. Best,Howie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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