Oilers drafting record has been a problem for over a quarter century

[JR Ewing]

***

This is something I wrote on another forum in January of 2012, and I thought a re-post and perhaps a follow-up would be worth a going over. This is extremely grim stuff for any Oilers fan to look at, and probably pretty astonishing for those who don't follow the team so closely.

After this, I'll see if I can't cobble some more stuff for the last ten years as well.

***

When you look at the Oilers post-Dynasty years, it's a bit depressing to look at that list and see just how few of the players were guys the club drafted. Only Jason Arnott, Ryan Smyth, Shawn Horcoff and Ales Hemsky were drafted by the Oilers.

So...

-Not one defenseman was a selection on draft day. For how much I've heard other Oilers fans tell me that Kevin Lowe really knows his defensemen, that sure isn't borne out at the draft table.

-This team hasn't drafted a good goalie since 1981 (Fuhr).

-Oh, how I wish the management of this club, going on 20 years now, was as good at drafting and developing talent as they are at acquiring at through trades.

-Draft day is SO important. It's an opportunity to pick up young talent for free (well, the price of scouting, but you know what I mean) and address your needs. The Oilers have a truly bizarre history in their scouting department.

-Had a head of scouting (Barry Fraser) lived in Mexico, and didn't even scout draft-aged players first-hand. For the life of me, I can't wrap my head around that. If I were GM and my Head of Scouting came up and said "Hey JR, I'm moving to Mexico", I'd be answering with "Sounds good, man. Of course, I'm getting somebody else for your job, though."

-Until last year's World Junior Championship, the Oilers had never sent a scout to the tournament. Not one. Never. Nada. You get my meaning. When I heard them admit that in an interview during the World Juniors this past year, I wanted to find something to break.

-The first two entry drafts for the Edmonton Oilers are among the best in NHL history, but it's tough to find a GM whose drafting record has the kind of Jekyll and Hyde signs as does Glen Sather. His first draft was a beauty: Lowe, Messier and Anderson. Next year he walks away with Coffey, Kurri and Moog. He drafted six HOFers in two years. Then... For the next couple of years, he walks away with a player or two who is an everyday player, with no all-stars in the bunch.

With his first-round selections from 1982 till 1999, he came up with two impact players: Jason Arnott and Ryan Smyth. The rest of the group is comprised of:

Everyday players: Jeff Beukeboom (1983), Boyd Devereaux (1996)

Fringe Players: Tyler Wright (1991)

The rest are just complete and total wash-outs. Sather's 1st round picks, along with their boxcars:

1982 - Jim Playfair (21 GP, 2-4-6)

1984 - Selmar Odelein (18 GP, 0-2-2)

1985 - Scott Metcalfe (19 GP, 1-2-3)

1986 - Kim Issel (4 GP, 0-0-0)

1987 - Peter Soberlak (0 GP, 0-0-0)

1988 - Francois Leroux (249 GP, 3-20-23)

1989 - Jason Soules (0 GP, 0-0-0)

1990 - Scott Allison (0 GP, 0-0-0)

I have to take a time-out here to talk about the 1990 draft. It is THE worst draft day in the history of the Oilers, and is in fact the worst in NHL history. Ahem: NOT A SINGLE PLAYER SELECTED THAT YEAR PLAYED AN NHL GAME! Let that sink in for a moment, and ask yourself how the hell is it possible to miss the boat that badly?

1992 - Joe Hulbig (55 GP, 4-4-8)

1994 - Jason Bonsignore (79 GP, 3-13-16)

1995 - Steve Kelly (149 GP, 9-12-21)

1997 - Michel Riesen (12 GP, 0-1-1)

1998 - Michael Henrich (0 GP, 0-0-0)

1999 - Jani Rita (66 GP, 9-5-14)

Abysmal first-round drafting right there. Or, maybe you're thinking "The draft is a crap shoot. Maybe the other teams didn't do better. You'd be wrong.

Oilers 1st rounders, average: 262 GP, 53-74-127

Other teams' average: 534 GP, 106-173-279

You read that right; the Oilers were a little bit less than 50% effective at drafting as the other teams in the league, and that just wasn't good enough.

I know what you're going to say: "But the first ten years, they drafted late. The good players were already taken. Sorry again. The teams drafting after the Oilers during those years selected players with average numbers of 327 GP, 92-138-229. Again, WAY better than the Oilers.

For all the years they complained that money kept them from being competitive, they just simply didn't get it done at the draft table. If they'd only have been willing to take that hard look in the mirror instead of making such lame excuses.

***

Like I said, it's pretty horrific stuff. I'll have to follow this up, because it doesn't get much better after 1999.

***

JR

[briere48]

i think the biggest problem with oilers like you said, they never drafted any good defensemen, the last time they were in the finals in 06 they had good mobile defensemen, that's why they are what they are right now, they never seem to address getting a dmen through a trade, it's always forwards, it's never defensemen.

[JR Ewing]

Prior to the 2000 draft, Barry Fraser who had

a] Been the Oilers head scout since the team's NHL inception, and

b] SPENT THOSE YEARS LIVING IN MEXICO AND NEVER ONCE SCOUTING A SINGLE PLAYER

was let go, with the Oilers hiring Kevin Prendergast in the head scout position fresh after a seven-year stint as Asst Director of Scouting with the NHL Central Scouting Bureau. His resume suggested a man capable of the job. I'm going to go a little further with this period, leading up to today, and look at what helped bring the Oilers into the mess they're in now, from drafting, as well as how those players were handled.

Picks of note, Kevin Prendergast era (2000-2009 drafts)

2000

1st Alexei Mikhnov (2 GP, 0-0-0)

2nd Brad Winchester (390 GP, 37-31-68)

7th Matthew Lombardi (536 GP, 101-161-262)

Winchester was allowed to walk as UFA after 78 GP in EDM. Lombardi never played a game for the Oilers and re-entered the draft, going to the Flames.

2001

1st Ales Hemsky (695 GP, 147-353--500)

Good pick, obviously.

2002

1st Jesse Niinimaki (0 GP, 0-0-0)

2nd Jarret Stoll (743 GP, 136-233-369)

2nd Matt Greene (528 GP, 14-57-71)

The Oilers completely whiffed on their 1st rounder, and later admitted that they chose Niinimaki after watching one (1) game of his on TV during the World Junior tournament. Seriously.

The eventual handling of Jarret Stoll and Matt Greene is typical of the Oilers during the last ten years and is a sad tale: Kevin Lowe packaged the two of them to Los Angeles for Lubomir Visnovsky the day before Visnovsky's No-Trade clause kicked in. The trade in and of itself wasn't terrible. Visnovsky had terrific skill, but there were problems:

a] He didn't want to play in EDM. At all. When told by Lowe that the Oilers were happy to extend his NTC, Visnovsky told them not to bother; he would never block any trade that sent him out of there. The other problem was

b] Pat Quinn couldn't stand Visnosvky as a hockey player, and mishandled his minutes and deployment.

After only 107 GP as an Oilers, Visnovsky wanted out, so new GM Steve Tambellini obliged, sending him to ANA for Ryan Whitney. The big problem? Whitney's ankle (which was always hurt) was now completely done, and he was just about finished as a hockey player. By the time the Oilers traded for him, instead of turning as anybody would, he had to hop in the air and turn his body. He still had a good first pass, but everything else was a nightmare. In his three full seasons in EDM, he played 35, 51, and 34 games. He was allowed to walk after the 2013 season.

The draft of 2002 produced two quality players: Stoll and Greene contributed to two Cups in LA, and a finals appearance with EDM in 2006. The Oilers turned them into Lubo Visnovsky, who turned into Ryan Whitney, who turned into nothing.

Disastrous asset management.

2003 (when my hair went from greying early to full-on white one June day)

1st Marc-Antoine Pouliot (192 GP, 21-36-57)

7th Kyle Brodziak (565 GP, 92-120-212)

At the '03 draft, the Oilers made a trade with New Jersey, giving up their 17th pick for NJ's #22 and #68 picks. The Devils walked up and selected Zach Parise, causing an immediate Pierre-gasm on TSN. The Oilers were fine with this (and state so) because they had no interest in Parise. Fine. And then Ryan Getzlaff and Brent Burns went 19th and 20th. After the Oilers chose Pouliot with #22, Ryan Kesler and Mike Richards went #22 and #23. Corey Perry went 28th (there's another story about him to come). In other words, the 1st round was a complete debacle.

Kyle Brodziak? After finished dead last in 2009, and with a center depth chart consisting of Shawn Horcoff, Kyle Brodziak, Marc (always injured) Pouliot and Brodziak, Steve Tambellini decided that after Gilbert Brule went 2-1-3 in 11 games, he was ready to play in the NHL. Brodziak was traded to MIN where he has been a useful player, and Brule is now out of the NHL.

Disastrous.

The Oilers made the playoffs in 2003, losing yet another matchup to Dallas. Kevin Lowe was incensed and took his anger with the players to the press, saying that he and his old teammates would have never rolled over so easily. Most of the players took it professionally, but Mike Comrie didn't at all, demanding a trade out of EDM. Lowe found a trade partner in Brian Burke over in ANA, with Burke agreeing agreeing to take Comrie for recently picked Corey Perry.

Great! What? No. Comrie had been paid a signing bonus by the Oilers, and with the deal all set, he told Comrie that if he wanted out of Edmonton, he'd have to pay his way out. Comrie, naturally, told Lowe he'd never do that. Burke ended up frustrated and took away his offer. Comrie eventually ended up in Philly, as members here will remember, being swapped for Jeff Woywitka, PHI's 1st and 3rd rounders. The Oilers chose Rob Schremp and Danny Syvret.

A disaster. Getting a theme here?

2004

Devan Dubnyk (181 GP, .910 SV%)

a] Taking goalies in the 1st round represent extreme risk.

b] Dubnyk was fed to the wolves during the rebuild, finally traded after being completely demoralized by the deluge and Craig MacTavish stating his doubt that Dubnyk is an NHL starter)

2005

1st Andrew Cogliano (566 GP, 108-136--244)

Cogliano is the NHL's current iron man. He was traded by Steve Tambellini to ANA for a 2nd round pick, and there wasn't a player in sight who could play his minutes. Last week, Cogliano was asked by Bob McCown on SportsNet what the primary difference between EDM and ANA. His answer: "There are much higher standards in ANA."

A very useful player completely given away, with no NHL games from the pick which was used (Marc-Olivier Roy).

2006

No 1st round pick

2nd Jeff Petry (260 GP, 15-48-63)

Good pick.

2007

1st Sam Gagner (506 GP, 103-201-304)

Sam Gagner went 6th overall and went straight from the OHL to the NHL. Due to being rushed Gagner has literally never improved from day one in the NHL, with the Coyotes admitting this week that he's having difficulties with Dave Tippett's system. Gagner is not a player with six full seasons under his belt, but a player with 1 season experience 6 times. He's never learned to as much as look over his shoulder coming back into the defensive zone, and is still going through rookie learning.

***

Special note: Kevin Lowe approached the 2007 trade deadline with the Oilers tied for 8th place, and was in difficult contract negotiations with Ryan Smyth, who had taken a series of hometown discounts for the Oilers, and (knowing that his style of play breaks down a body early) wanted to paid at what he felt was market value. He and Lowe finally lowered their difference down to a mere $150,000 and Lowe finally grew so angry that he responded by trading Smyth to the Islander for Ryan O'Marra, Robert Nilsson and the Isles 1st round pick (Alex Plante). The Oilers went from having a point-per-game player to a complete swing and miss on all three parts of the return. The active roster was devestated, losing 19 of their last 20. A complete collapse.

Disastrous asset management.

2008

1st Jordan Eberle (299 GP, 101-136-237)

Terrific pick.

2009

1st Magnus Paajarvi (226 GP, 32-39-71)

A nice pick that was used to acquire David Perron from the cap-strapped Blues.

I'll end the study of Oilers drafts here, because I've always believed in a 5-year window to really gauge the return on draft day. 1st rounders often show early, but the later rounds can take longer to develop. Note here that you're not seeing serious quality from most of their 1st round selections here, and the last time they picked a 2nd rounder that played enough games to qualify for an NHL pension was Matt Greene, back in 2002.

I'm running out of time right now, but I'll come back to finish things off with a deeper look at some of the trades, hirings/firings, etc, that have come along with the fall to the bottom of the shaft. But, there's plenty here for folks to take in for now.

[JR Ewing]

i think the biggest problem with oilers like you said, they never drafted any good defensemen, the last time they were in the finals in 06 they had good mobile defensemen, that's why they are what they are right now, they never seem to address getting a dmen through a trade, it's always forwards, it's never defensemen.

a] For what it's worth, they've drafted some good looking defensemen in the last few years: Martin Marincin, Darnell Nurse, Oscar Klefbom.

b] It's tough to trade for quality defensemen, because teams don't usually want to get rid of them. I agree with you, but it IS tough.

c] The irony of the Cup Finals team of 2006, is that of the 6 defensemen they used in the playoffs, only Matt Greene was a draft pick.

d] I've been drawing the road down the mine shaft in my follow-up post, and yes, not drafting quality defense has been an issue. But it's only one. The real theme that outsiders can take as this thread continues, is that they've mostly struck out at the draft table for 25 years, but have a terrible habit of trading away players without a suitable replacement available. Craig MacTavish did the exact same thing in the summer: drafted Leon Draisaitl on Friday, thought "I have my 2C", and traded Sam Gagner on Sunday... And Leon's not ready.

[JR Ewing]

I had a very large post written up, detailing the post-2006 collapse of the team before Firefox decided to croak on me, and I lost it all. I was a bit disheartened, and ultimately decided not to do it again, because

a] You could write a book on this site, but if it's not about the Flyers, it won't make much of a wave, and

b] A fan did a good job with a video. It doesn't go into the step-by-step process, but nevertheless encapsulates well in a very quick way.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UGNgOPu86hw

[Podein25]

@JR Ewing

 

FWIW I read your posts - always insightful. I thought I should send some feedback 

 

Out of all the picks that you list above, the one that stands out for me is Bonsignore. In part, because he was 4th overall, in part because of how he is portrayed in Gare Joyce's book, Future Greats and Heartbreaks. He had enormous talent but couldn't give a phuck.

[flyercanuck]

Pods...I met him at a bar in Newmarket shortly after his draft. Normally in a situation like that I'd like to have a beer with the guy and shoot the breeze. He was so full of himself it was sickening...The guy was totally unlikeable.

[Podein25]

@flyercanuck

 

That's certainly the impression that Joyce leaves in his book. I guess his account is accurate.

 

It gets at an interesting problem with scouting, one that still exists as far as I know, namely that you don't know the character of these players you're drafting, even in the first round. You might have a 30 min interview with them at the combine, when they are nervous and stuff. Not a normal environment. 

 

I'm told that this is deliberate, that scouts specifically don't talk to players they scout - ever. They don't want to get close to them, don't want that to influence their "objectivity." It's absurd. Imagine hiring people that way?! And yet, the scouting world still runs this way I'm told.