Re-Signing Voracek

[radoran]

You guys are dreaming if you think Voracek signs for $6m, especially if he continues to play the way he did. He will most likely get between $7-8m on a 6+ year deal.

 

Stepan just got $6.5m and he's not even as good as Voracek, while never scoring 20 goals in a season

Andrew MacDonald got $5M a year.

Teams give dumb contracts. If Jake wants $7M+ I deal him without a second thought, and will be counting the many assets I get back.

[jammer2]

If Jake wants $7M+ I deal him without a second thought, and will be counting the many assets I get back.

 

 In your estimation, where is the cut off point?  In other words, say Jake improves his point totals to 93-95 during next season...is he worth 7+ then in your eyes? If the Flyers are serious about getting him locked up, I don't think they wait till the trade deadline, but I'm sure Hexy will be MUCH more cautious than Homer. He will want to see that elite scoring trend continue. I figure if you wait until Christmas, then you can reasonably project his point totals moving forward. Homer would have panicked and would have locked him up based on last years production, not really knowing if it was a one time flukey thing (which I'm sure it wasn't....just say'in.

[OccamsRazor]

If Jake wants $7M+ I deal him without a second thought, and will be counting the many assets I get back.

 

I don't want to do that. But if i'm GM i have a budget to maintain in the salary cap era so i'd have no choice but to call around and see what kind of assets i could get by moving him....yes i know it's not going to be a popular idea but GM have to live in reality and Jake has progressed nicely but he is there yet to be demanding that kind of money.

 

So see what you can get for him which the way Hexy has been working his magic/voodoo even it should be a nice return.

[Claude Monet]

If VLC, mc dud, and umberger were not here.... This wouldn't even be an issue. Homer hate continues

[radoran]

In your estimation, where is the cut off point?  In other words, say Jake improves his point totals to 93-95 during next season...is he worth 7+ then in your eyes? If the Flyers are serious about getting him locked up, I don't think they wait till the trade deadline, but I'm sure Hexy will be MUCH more cautious than Homer. He will want to see that elite scoring trend continue. I figure if you wait until Christmas, then you can reasonably project his point totals moving forward. Homer would have panicked and would have locked him up based on last years production, not really knowing if it was a one time flukey thing (which I'm sure it wasn't....just say'in.

Look, I've said previously that his play next season has a lot to do with it and that I am certainly flexible. I like Jake and have since he was drafted.

But if we're in a world where 23 goal scorers are making EIGHT MILLION DOLLARS then we're headed to lockout city AGAIN.

And we're talking about locking up SIXTEEN MILLION DOLLARS of cap space on two guys who put up a TOTAL of 47 goals last season, NEITHER of whom have ever scored 30.

Is there another team in the league that's done that?

[JackStraw]

And we're talking about locking up SIXTEEN MILLION DOLLARS of cap space on two guys who put up a TOTAL of 47 goals last season, NEITHER of whom have ever scored 30.

Is there another team in the league that's done that?

 

Well, Kane and Toews have both hit 30 (Toews twice, Kane once) and they did put up 55 goals combined last year. But then they're each making what, 10 million? While playing on a much better team. Honestly, 7-ish will be fair if Voracek continues to put up the numbers.

[OccamsRazor]

Well, Kane and Toews have both hit 30 (Toews twice, Kane once) and they did put up 55 goals combined last year. But then they're each making what, 10 million? While playing on a much better team. Honestly, 7-ish will be fair if Voracek continues to put up the numbers.

 

 

Yeah but they have 3 Cups on their resume. And 2 of them on their resume already when they signed their deals...so that is a little skewed...at least for me.

[JackStraw]

Yeah but they have 3 Cups on their resume. And 2 of them on their resume already when they signed their deals...so that is a little skewed...at least for me.

Right. You win Cups with players like that. Not by letting them walk. Just because some big contracts are bad doesn't mean that all big contracts are bad. Players like Giroux and Voracek aren't easy to find and they don't come cheap.

[jammer2]

But if we're in a world where 23 goal scorers are making EIGHT MILLION DOLLARS then we're headed to lockout city AGAIN.

 

 Agreed, but I honestly believe that there will be another lock out regardless of any contracts signed. Gary has realized he can make great strides and get some worthwhile concessions from the NHLPA. He knows the owners can wait out the players AND he knows the fans will come crawling back....so there is nothing stopping him. I believe the next CBA will be a year long battle. I think there is a good chance Gary will go after guaranteed contract....making the NHL a "what have you done for me lately" league, much like the NFL.

[canoli]

I hate the idea of a year-long lockout but (I think) I hate guaranteed contracts even more.

Regarding Jake, Jack makes a good point, you win with proven talent and though G/Jake aren't quite Toews/Kane with a better team around them I believe they're both capable of leading the offense to a Cup. For a long stretch of the season those 2 led the league in points - I forget the exact stats but G/J is a lethal combination.

I don't think Voracek is worth anywhere near 8 million a year but if 7 million is what it takes the Flyers are better off with him than without him. I guess the main thing is finding a winger who will complete that line.

[brelic]

I hate the idea of a year-long lockout but (I think) I hate guaranteed contracts even more.

 

This x 1000.

[DaGreatGazoo]

That's your problem right there. Actually, it's the brown liquid that the ice is swimming in that's the problem

 

Yeah...well....soo...umm....  

[radoran]

Right. You win Cups with players like that. Not by letting them walk. Just because some big contracts are bad doesn't mean that all big contracts are bad. Players like Giroux and Voracek aren't easy to find and they don't come cheap.

 

To be clear, I'm not at all saying "big contracts are bad" - I'm saying you need to sign the right contracts.

 

I went through in another thread, but NONE of the other top teams in the Metro/East had a top pair that scored as little as the Flyers OR that were as reliant on power play production.

 

Could be that with Gagner (or another forward) the top line rips it up and truly emerges as a force.

 

I'm not giving Voracek $8M rightnow. If he breaks out and scores over 30 and the line is effective at even strength, we're in a different conversation.

 

Could happen. Hope it does. Not paying for it now.

[brelic]

Could happen. Hope it does. Not paying for it now.

 

Statistically, Voracek has already hit his production peak. He will be 26 in a few weeks. Still very young and capable, of course, and he could be the exception to the rule. Especially with a better 3rd wheel on his line.

 

The question is would you bet $64M over 8 years that he will be the exception? Or is it less about increasing production and more about core players / leadership / stability? Is that worth $64M to the Flyers?

[JackStraw]

To be clear, I'm not at all saying "big contracts are bad" - I'm saying you need to sign the right contracts.

 

I went through in another thread, but NONE of the other top teams in the Metro/East had a top pair that scored as little as the Flyers OR that were as reliant on power play production.

 

Could be that with Gagner (or another forward) the top line rips it up and truly emerges as a force.

 

I'm not giving Voracek $8M rightnow. If he breaks out and scores over 30 and the line is effective at even strength, we're in a different conversation.

 

Could happen. Hope it does. Not paying for it now.

 

Well, I'd rather not pay for anything (Jake-wise) now. If he has another big year, well, $8M is a lot but he'd probably be worth it.

[murraycraven]

Andrew MacDonald got $5M a year.

Teams give dumb contracts. If Jake wants $7M+ I deal him without a second thought, and will be counting the many assets I get back.

I am with you on that rad.... 7 or 8 million is too much for Jake. It was one... I repeat one break out year. We all know how he likes his mommas cooking too.

[radoran]

The question is would you bet $64M over 8 years that he will be the exception? Or is it less about increasing production and more about core players / leadership / stability? Is that worth $64M to the Flyers?

 

IMO, Jake is not an $8M player now and will have to seriously blow doors off this season to make it so.

 

 

Well, I'd rather not pay for anything (Jake-wise) now. If he has another big year, well, $8M is a lot but he'd probably be worth it.

 

What's a "big year"? Another 22/23 goal effort? In a contract year? Hmmmm.

 

Worth it to invest $16M in cap space in the current top line? Here's a brief rundown of top line center/wings in the Metro and their production

 

PIT: Crosby/Hornqvist 53 goals, 16 power play (Crosby 77 games, Hornqvist 64) - and they just added Kessel

NYR: Brassard/Nash 61 goals, 12 power play

NYI: Tavares/Okposo 56 goals, 19 power play (Okposo 60 games)

WAS: Ovechkin/Backstrom 71 goals, 28 power play

CLS: Johansen/Foligno 57 goals, 18 power play

 

All of those teams finished ahead of the Flyers last season. All of them have more power scoring up front and serious production at even strength.

 

Flyers: Giroux/Voarcek 47 goals, 25 power play

 

Look around the other teams in the East

 

MON: Pacioretty/Plekanec 63 goals, 14 power play

TAM: Johnson/Stamkos 72 goals, 21 power play

DET: Datsyuk/Tatar 55 goals, 17 power play (Datsyuk 63 games)

OTT: Turris/Stone 50 goals, 20 power play

 

The only thing close to comparable is Ottawa. And I don't see "Ottawa" as something to emulate.

 

Western Conference?

ANA: Perry/Getzlaf 58 goals, 7 power play (Perry 67 games)

CHI: Toews/Kane 55 goals, 12 power play (Kane 61 games)

 

There's your "road to the Stanley Cup" last season.

 

For me? I want to see more goals and more even strength production. Assists and points are great. Goals win hockey games.

 

Why harp on goals? Because when they lost to the Rangers in the playoffs two years ago they scored more than two goals twice.

[JackStraw]

What's a "big year"? Another 22/23 goal effort? In a contract year? Hmmmm.

 

Top 5 in points in the NHL is a big year. (for that matter top 10 in points is a big year too)

 

 

 

For me? I want to see more goals and more even strength production. Assists and points are great. Goals win hockey games

 

I don't see Jake (or Giroux) as being big time goal scorers. Which is why I was so high on Lawson Crouse. You need a more pure goal scorer on that line with G and Jake. As long as Jake continues to do what he does best, which is puck possession and generating offense (if not necessarily finishing) I'm fine with that.

[radoran]

I don't see Jake (or Giroux) as being big time goal scorers. Which is why I was so high on Lawson Crouse. You need a more pure goal scorer on that line with G and Jake. As long as Jake continues to do what he does best, which is puck possession and generating offense (if not necessarily finishing) I'm fine with that.

 

Which is great for "competing" for the Stanley Cup.

 

Not so great at "winning" it. You have to get by all of those teams I listed...

 

For that matter, where does this (apparently fairly cheap) pure goal scoring winger come from? Raffl? Gagner could slot in there - but he's UFA at the end of the year, too.

 

And isn't "puck possession and generating offense" exactly what Giroux does? Sure, they made Raffl into a 20 goal scorer, but I don't think you want to see the numbers of what the "other wing" on all of those teams listed comes in at. Adding Raffl's 21 goals brings the "Flyer top line" to 68 goals.

 

Again, I'm all in favor of keeping Jake. I'm looking at $6-7M (so it's not like I'm talking about $5M or something completely beyond the pale). This talk that he will command $8M is where I am parting ways and if he's/his agent's insisting on $7M+, you can likely go out and get a "pure goal scorer" in exchange for Voracek to compliment Giroux's playmaking and offense generating.

[JackStraw]

For that matter, where does this (apparently fairly cheap) pure goal scoring winger come from? Raffl? Gagner could slot in there - but he's UFA at the end of the year, too.

 

Could come from anywhere. I'm thinking of a Hartnell type. A Crouse type.

Again, I'm all in favor of keeping Jake. I'm looking at $6-7M (so it's not like I'm talking about $5M or something completely beyond the pale). This talk that he will command $8M is where I am parting ways

 

Where is that talk coming from, here? I don't even see any point in worrying about Jake's next contract at this point. And based on what he's done so far I'm pretty confident that Hextall will do ok. I don't think Jake will get more than market value (whatever that turns out to be). If I were to take a wild guess right now, I'd say $7.5M.

[OccamsRazor]

Right. You win Cups with players like that. Not by letting them walk. Just because some big contracts are bad doesn't mean that all big contracts are bad. Players like Giroux and Voracek aren't easy to find and they don't come cheap.

 

 

I agree but depending on what would be the return is dictates weather i would pull the trigger or not on a trade of Jake because then it would create a pretty big hole at RW on the 1st line. I prefer they come to an agreement on a deal.

 

However you also don't want to sign guys to those huge contract and then be forced to strip the team down because you can't afford to resign your own guys.

 

Blackhawks fans would be a lot less forgiving of them losing players like Saad, Sharp and Oduya if they had never won any Cups...but since they have it eases the pain of losing players.

[brelic]

I agree but depending on what would be the return is dictates weather i would pull the trigger or not on a trade of Jake because then it would create a pretty big hole at RW on the 1st line. I prefer they come to an agreement on a deal.

 

However you also don't want to sign guys to those huge contract and then be forced to strip the team down because you can't afford to resign your own guys.

 

Blackhawks fans would be a lot less forgiving of them losing players like Saad, Sharp and Oduya if they had never won any Cups...but since they have it eases the pain of losing players.

 

For me it comes down to this: do you believe you can win a Stanley Cup with Giroux and Jake as your top dollar forwards?  They have a very strong chemistry together and are developing into leaders. If you believe you can win with that duo, it makes sense to me to lock them up long-term as your highest paid guys. Enjoy the cost certainty for 8 years, while you draft, develop, and provide the right supporting cast.

 

I believe we can win it all with G and Jake. So I am ok paying top dollar to keep Jake around as G's wingman for the next 8 years.

[OccamsRazor]

I'm thinking of a Hartnell type.

 

Well that Hartnell type wasn't exactly cheap....4.5mill is a nice chunks in the salary cap era with their limited cap space.

[radoran]

I'm thinking of a Hartnell type.

 

So, Umburglar, then? Maybe a JVR?

 

Crouse is Florida property. Not that they might not deal him (and more) for, say, a Voracek.

 

 

Where is that talk coming from, here?

 

This. Very. Thread.

 

It's like there's some sort of post-and-respond thing going. Odd.

 

 

 

If I were to take a wild guess right now, I'd say $7.5M.

 

Again, I feel that's significantly on the high side given production. YMMV, which is fine. I, too, believe that Hextall will make the "right" decision in this case. We likely don't "agree" on what that "right" decision will be. Time will tell.

 

I just have a very real - and statistically born out - fear that they don't have the punch to win a Cup without "pure goal scorer to be named later." And I don't want to be three years down the road still looking for a "pure goal scorer" that fits financially into the Flyers, given that they could have $15.5M wrapped up in the sixth-best goal-scoring tandem in the Metropolitan Division.

[JackStraw]

Well that Hartnell type wasn't exactly cheap....4.5mill is a nice chunks in the salary cap era with their limited cap space.

 

$4.5M would be a bargain for a young Hartnell. Not so much for a Hartnell on the downside (even if he's still a productive player at this point).