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Top Defensive Players by Defensive Errors - Leafs Leaders - 2015-2016


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It's almost that time of year again.... and with a few revisions (based on last year's season-long trial run and also user feedback), the new and hopefully improved DE (Defensive Errors) statistic is back!  :)

 

Once again I will be tracking the Maple Leafs through the 2015-16 season and assigning defensive errors on defensive miscues that result in a goal being allowed.

 

 

New and improved DE assignment rules for this season:

  • Empty net goals will not result in a defensive error. (Cannot be properly defended against and nobody is trying to.)
  • One, two, or three players can be assessed a defensive error on the same goal.
  • "TOO MANY MEN" penalty will not result in a defensive error. (Will not try to track down the player responsible for that penalty.)
  • The goaltender will be charged with a DE on a bad goal, even if his team is short-handed.
  • Players will not be charged with a DE for accidentally tipping/deflecting the puck into their own net.

 

HOW TO ASSIGN DEFENSIVE ERRORS TO PLAYERS (Guidelines/criteria):

 

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Edited by WordsOfWisdom
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  1967!

So rumor has it Leafs are to sign this guy soon......       Not as impressed with that after seeing Medvedev struggle this year for my Flyers. Guys don't get that type of time and space in the NHL. So this not sure it will be a home run as perceived. That small rink and physical play changes things a lot.

@WordsOfWisdom I'll be checking in here regularly.....

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Bernier picks up exactly how he started last year..... with the first defensive error of the season!  Leafs lose to Montreal to open the season again. :mellow:

 

Oct.7: TOR vs MTL

  1. Bernier
  2. Spaling, Harrington, Winnik
  3. Empty net.

Final score: 3-1 MTL.

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@WordsOfWisdom I'll be checking in here regularly..... :P

 

Thanks.  :)

 

I've simplified things this year by not listing the defensive errors for the other team, only the Leafs. It saves me a lot of time.

 

The best way I can describe this stat is to think of it as being similar to errors in baseball. Errors are the only "common" statistic to measure fielding skill in baseball. It's only appropriate that something similar would be developed for hockey. DE is that stat.

 

Comparing DE to +/-:  The NHL relies on +/- for its measuring stick on defensive ability but +/- is 50% offence, 50% defence. PlusMinus is an overall gauge of how good a player is, but is more of a line and team based stat than an individual one. If you could take the "+" out of "+/-", keep only the "-", and then zero in on the root cause of the goal (from an automatic 5 players down to potentially 1), then you have a stat that measures defence. That's what DE is.

 

So this should (in theory) be the most accurate non-internal study of defence for an NHL team this season. I say "non-internal" because NHL clubs have proprietary stats like this that are kept in-house and not released to the public. So for all intents and purposes, if the public isn't privy to them, they don't exist.

 

Anyway, let's see how things shake out this season. Feedback is always welcomed. And if the Leafs want to hire me as an analytics guy, I am available! :D

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Oct.9: TOR vs DET

  1. Lupul
  2. Harrington
  3. Bernier
  4. Kadri, Rielly

Final score: 4-0 DET.

 

Babcock feels the passion burn that unites us all.  Learning experience #2 is in the books. Another weak sauce goal allowed by Burnier. Over to Reimer already in game #2?  :thumbsu: 

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I have been thinking all along (since the arrival of Shanny) that the Leafs need an NHL caliber goalie. Not a superstar, or even a star. Just one who can actually stop the puck and isn't fragile mentally?

 

Come on Shanny, over to you.

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I have been thinking all along (since the arrival of Shanny) that the Leafs need an NHL caliber goalie. Not a superstar, or even a star. Just one who can actually stop the puck and isn't fragile mentally?

 

Come on Shanny, over to you.

 

On the bright side, the game was already over by the time Burnier allowed the bad angle goal. In fact, some might argue it was over the moment the puck was dropped.  :blink[1]:

 

Harrington and Burnier currently lead the Leafs with 2 DEs each. (I will post the leaderboard periodically as the season progresses.) 

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I have been thinking all along (since the arrival of Shanny) that the Leafs need an NHL caliber goalie. Not a superstar, or even a star. Just one who can actually stop the puck and isn't fragile mentally?

 

Come on Shanny, over to you.

 

What the Leafs need:

 

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Funny that Gardiner and Komarov both scored (Komorov actually had two).

 

I noticed this pattern quite frequently last year. A player that cost his team a goal would often come back and score one shortly thereafter.  :)

 

I think I'll post the leaderboard at the end of every month.

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Oct.17: TOR vs PIT.

  1. Arcobello, Bernier
  2. Lupul, Bernier

Final score: 2-1 PIT.

 

Two more soft goals by Bernier. While he turned it around in the second half of the game, the damage was already done. I think it might be Reim time.  :huh:

 

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@WordsOfWisdom

 

Of course when your team scores ONE goal you can't expect too many wins...though I always tell our goalie if he wants to win, he has to get a shutout.

 

Sadly, this is what the Leafs offence has been reduced to. They are going to struggle to score goals all year long. The only thing that will keep them out of 30th is if they get standout goaltending or learn to play a tight defensive system under Babcock. :)

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@WordsOfWisdom

 

How was Bernier? I saw the shots/saves totals, which look good, but interested in your observations

 

I usually only watch the games on Saturday. The rest of the time I need to dive into the highlights and review the goals. :D  Leafs play Montreal next, so I will be watching that one unless the Jays are still alive in the playoffs. Then I can give feedback on Bernier.  

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Oct.24: TOR vs MTL

  1. Parenteau
  2. Polak
  3. Grabner, Polak
  4. Boyes
  5. Phaneuf, Kadri

Final score: 5-3 MTL.

 

 

Some important notes:

 

  • Although it's the first time this season that it has happened, I have decided to alter the rule regarding accidental tip-ins. Player will now be responsible for own-goals again, just like last year.
  • The penalties to Phaneuf and Kadri happened at the same time, one of them was off-setting, but I don't know which one. (The NHL is rife with missing game summary data on such facts.) Thus, both players were penalized with a DE when Montreal scored.

 

My thoughts on Bernier:

 

I think we've seen all that we're going to see from Bernier. He's no Carey Price, and he's regressing. I think we finally know what Bernier is and he's not "the guy". I see no reason to invest in him any further as a goalie of the future. I'd like to see the Leafs experiment with Reimer as the starter again. He deserves one last push. If that fails, then it's time for a fresh face I think.  :)

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The Bernier thing is not news to me. I saw plenty enough of him to tell he was not a full-time NHL starting goalie.

 

Question is now, what will the Leafs highly paid and touted management do? Those kind of losses for a bunch of guys who are in all honesty working their butts off will just kill your teams spirit, and make them wonder why they're trying so hard while the guy(s) in the net are feeling sorry for themselves. We need a real goaltender, and damned soon....

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Oct.26: TOR vs AZA

  1. Harrington
  2. Van Riemsdyk
  3. Reimer, Phaneuf, Komarov
  4. Phaneuf, Hunwick, Matthias

Final score: 4-3 AZA.

 

Not much to say here. Harrington and Van Riemsdyk get DEs on penalties. Reimer lets in a softie. Komarov doesn't block shots. Phaneuf played the 5-on-5 like he was short-handed. A three-way clusterfudge on the final goal as the Leafs have three guys in front of their net and none of them are playing defence.  :(

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A three-way clusterfudge on the final goal as the Leafs have three guys in front of their net and none of them are playing defence.   :(

 

 

Why, it's enough to make a goalie mentally fragile  :ph34r:

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Why, it's enough to make a goalie mentally fragile  :ph34r:

 

It's nice to see Reimer playing though. He let in a softie, but Bernier does that too, and Reimer is rusty. The team also plays worse in front of Reimer than they do in front of Bernier. I'm hoping they go with Reimer for several games in a row... just to give him another chance at the #1 job.

 

Two more games to go this month before I post the current leaderboard...    :)

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