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Chances of making the playoffs


Yotes Jackets

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Had a little time on my hands so I decided to see how probable the Jackets chances of making the playoffs were.

 

Last years wild card spot was locked up by the Pens at 98 points. Through 13 games the Jackets have 6 points or a roughly 0.734 less points-per-game pace then the Pens had last year.

With 69 games remaining to get 92 points (1.333 per game). We'd have to win 67% of our remaining games - of course you can gain points in OT losses which last year ranged from 5 to 18 across the league. Let's say we get 18 points from OT losses, that'd leave us with the room of winning the remaining 73% of our games.

 

So is 67% or 1.33 ppg doable or has CBus played themselves out of the playoffs already 16% of the way into the season?

Currently 6 teams are on pace to match one or both of these requirements (Montreal, NYR, Dallas, St Louis, LA, Vancouver).

So you're saying there's a chance?

Well last year over an 82 game sample ZERO teams maintained a 66.6% win percentage. The closest was NYR at 64.6%. NYR and Montreal were able to get above 1.333 ppg though, with St Louis and Anaheim just a tad bit below (1.329).

 

At this point last year on Nov 4th the lowest point total to make the playoffs was Washington at 10 points through 11 games. Through 13 games Washington had 13 points.

Now the goal may not be 98 points to get a WC spot, I am just going off of last year. In the past 5 years as low as 92 points earned you a spot with 93 being common.

tl;dr
Playoff hopes are very slim

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@Yotes Jackets

Welcome to the forums, good to see a Jacket fan in here. My wife posts in here under my account every so often but that is about it, bring some friends!

Yeah, the Jackets finished strong as any team in the game last year, added Saad, nobody but nobody could have seen this coming.

And now behind the bench.....Fonzie.

Ugh.

Columbus fans (all five of them) have suffered before but high hopes have not been dashed like this. Very frustrating.

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@Yotes Jackets

 

The math and history is certainly against Columbus.

 

That said, so long as the season is still in November and the Jackets have talent (they do), as a fan, you can continue to hold onto hope that it IS possible.

The Metro division itself is slowly turning into quite the competitive division.

 

Last couple seasons, the Atlantic was far and away the stronger division, but this year, it isn't so clear cut.

Even so, the Metro is still home to teams like the Hurricanes, Devils, and Flyers...all of whom have several large holes in their overall teams and will likely struggle as well....meaning the Jackets, if they can figure things out with Tortorella behind the bench, have a chance to rack up some wins because they see those teams quite often.

 

As Yave said, Jackets finishing strong last season proves they DO have the chops to compete and there is a chance they can finish strong again.

Granted, overall, you don't want your team having to play catch up every year (they still missed the playoffs last year even with the powerful finish after all), but again, we just got into November, tons of games ahead and some divisional rivals (even Conference rivals) with some pretty big issues, so I wouldn't go calling the season 'lost' just yet......yes, even in the face of the aforementioned 'mathematics of it'.

 

Tough sledding for sure. And if the Jackets are still hapless by the end of December - early January, then by all means, call this an impossible task.

 

Oh, and welcome to HF.net.

Go make an intro thread, tell us a bit about you and your sports likes and dislikes......let'm know Jackets and Yotes fans are, indeed, in the house. :)

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@Yotes Jackets   Wow, a real live Jackets fans....do you know the other 4 personally?   

 

 I kid, welcome, great to have you. What are your feelings on Bobrovsky going forward...the team is playing horrible in front of him, but he has let in some very deflating goals also. Quite odd, considering his raw talent. Wonder if it's a mental thing with him right now?

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@Yotes Jackets   Wow, a real live Jackets fans....do you know the other 4 personally?   

 

 I kid, welcome, great to have you. What are your feelings on Bobrovsky going forward...the team is playing horrible in front of him, but he has let in some very deflating goals also. Quite odd, considering his raw talent. Wonder if it's a mental thing with him right now?

I used to play goalie and sometimes you need to change up the routine to get out of a funk. He'll be fine and he'll regain his form... I hope.. we're paying him a boatload of cash

 

Defense is the bigger problem long term

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Defense is the bigger problem long term

 

 

Maybe. I note that the Jackets have used 9 of their last 16 draft picks (2015 and 2014) on D-men, including two 1st in 2015 (Werenski and Carlsson). Plus they have Murray the 2nd overall in 2012. Is he not progressing? I honestly don't know.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Good win

 

If only the game was 2 periods long..

I am assuming Boone Jenner received a nasty tongue lashing from Tortorella for the giveaway to Pavelski for the EN goal.

 

But it was a historic 6 wins on a road trip for the Sharks. I still can't wait till Logan Couture comes back. Arguably our 2nd best forward after Pavelski, or at least tied with Jumbo Joe

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I am assuming Boone Jenner received a nasty tongue lashing from Tortorella for the giveaway to Pavelski for the EN goal.

 

But it was a historic 6 wins on a road trip for the Sharks. I still can't wait till Logan Couture comes back. Arguably our 2nd best forward after Pavelski, or at least tied with Jumbo Joe

All good for the Sharks until the playoffs roll around ;)

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  • 2 weeks later...

@Yotes Jackets   The one thing I'm sure of, is that Werenski is the real deal. You don't see skating like that from a bust. The only question is how much offense he will contribute. Myself, I think he will be a all round stud that puts up 50+ pts per year.

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