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Great Piece on Cooter's Metrics


King Knut

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Interesting read but I actually disagree with the conclusion.  I think shooting accuracy and scoring touch are not things that can be coached into players.  I think that is something players either have or develop on their own or they don't.  I think players can be coached within a system to get better at generating scoring chances so long as they possess the requisite skills.  Ie: Muckers and grinders no matter how well coached are never going to have the skill set necessary to carry out the primary system to generate chances.  Their limited skill will force them to take a more basic approach of dumping the puck, forechecking, and cycling.  

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Sorry, I stopped reading after "corsi" came into play. Why do people have to make it way more difficult than it is?

Three things matter to play at this level...skill, strength/speed, mental toughness. I think he lacks in 2 out of 3 categories.

I dont care if he wins 100% of faceoffs. If he doesnt generate a scoring chance from that faceoff win, it means nothing. I dont care about puck possession. You can take the puck and skate circles on the ice for 60 minutes. If you dont generate scoring chances, it means nothing. I dont care if you generate 100% of the shots. If they aren't quality shots, it means nothing.

Sean Couturier is a nice player that is lacking top level skating abilities and killer instincts. He has some skill but that wont help without the other two. He can become a better skater with the right coach and hard offseason training, but that progress should have been made 2 off seasons ago.

I wish they would have just let things play out instead of giving him a decent contract already. I guess we can just hope he is our shut down guy and forget the fact that he gets paid too much to do so. I'd be really surprised if he ever has a 40+ point season.

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I think that is something players either have or develop on their own or they don't

 

Totally agree.  A coach can point out maybe a flaw or two in the way a player shoots the puck, but you have to constantly practice at it in order for it to develop.  Coots could have all this untapped potential in the world, BUT unless he practices shooting at the net in order to make himself a better player, then all the potential in the world goes right out the window.  Good point!

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@Samifan

Thanks. It sums up how I feel pretty nicely.

So I realize this is a complete hindsight view, but what if Hextal traded Couts instead of Hartsy? Hartsy has 9 goals on the season and everyone knows he is a good guy to have on the team. At the time, I was in favor of the deal to let him go, but now I realize how important guys like that are.

At that time, Couts was the talk of the team. "Man this guys gonna be good" and "you have to have this guy against the best player". At 21 years of age, what could they have gotten for him? Maybe 2 good picks and a prospect? Maybe more?

Hartnel could have given us a few decent years @$4.5 mill, umberger wouldnt be on the team, and we'd have 2 or 3 more prospects coming up through the system. Couts's salary at that point would take care of the Hartnel/umberger salary difference, and we'd see better hockey.

I know it's hindsight but some GMs have an eye for that sort of thing.

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I still don't know why everyone is centering their focus on a 22 year old center finally be given a bigger role in the lineup to see if he can showcase some improved offense. It's only been 20 games and he has even missed some with a concussion. It is done overnight it will take time to see if he can do it.

 

It's not like his linemates were lighting it up when they weren't playing with him. This whole damn team from top to bottom is struggling to score yet most are singling out Coots.

 

The kid will be here for many years to come and has a damn good deal to boot.

 

If anyone who needs to questioned it's Jake and his lack of scoring...

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I still don't know why everyone is centering their focus on a 22 year old center finally be given a bigger role in the lineup to see if he can showcase some improved offense. It's only been 20 games and he has even missed some with a concussion. It is done overnight it will take time to see if he can do it.

 

It's not like his linemates were lighting it up when they weren't playing with him. This whole damn team from top to bottom is struggling to score yet most are singling out Coots.

 

The kid will be here for many years to come and has a damn good deal to boot.

 

If anyone who needs to questioned it's Jake and his lack of scoring...

 

 

Look, Couts may be a 3rd line center BUT he is very valuable to this Team.  Even at his contract if he is a 40-50 point shutdown center that is not too bad.   There are NUMEROUS other players on this Team that should be called out before Couts - Jake, Simmonds, Schenn... pretty much everyone not names G or Mason/Neuvy.   

 

I rather have Couts turn into a 40-50 point player than Jake at 8M for way too long of a contract scoring 60 points each year.   Sorry, but the Couts hate is really not even the slightest of concern as this Team is currently constructed.  The Coach has him (and Hextall) as the 2nd line Center - would you rather him go to Hak and say "Coach, I really think I am a 3rd line center and not cut for the 2nd line..."

 

This is the year to place him at 2nd line center and see what happens.   Maybe it works and maybe it wont but he brings other facets to the game like playing great defense - something that is needed on a Team that should be on the upswing in 2-3 years.   Playing w/ dead weight on the wings certainly is not helping the cause either...

 

To me it is a no lose situation for Couts.  If he is a 3rd liner - great.  We already know he can play the shutdown role at a young age.  If he blossoms offensively that is the cherry on top.   

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Look, Couts may be a 3rd line center BUT he is very valuable to this Team.  Even at his contract if he is a 40-50 point shutdown center that is not too bad.   There are NUMEROUS other players on this Team that should be called out before Couts - Jake, Simmonds, Schenn... pretty much everyone not names G or Mason/Neuvy.   

 

I rather have Couts turn into a 40-50 point player than Jake at 8M for way too long of a contract scoring 60 points each year.   Sorry, but the Couts hate is really not even the slightest of concern as this Team is currently constructed.  The Coach has him (and Hextall) as the 2nd line Center - would you rather him go to Hak and say "Coach, I really think I am a 3rd line center and not cut for the 2nd line..."

 

This is the year to place him at 2nd line center and see what happens.   Maybe it works and maybe it wont but he brings other facets to the game like playing great defense - something that is needed on a Team that should be on the upswing in 2-3 years.   Playing w/ dead weight on the wings certainly is not helping the cause either...

 

To me it is a no lose situation for Couts.  If he is a 3rd liner - great.  We already know he can play the shutdown role at a young age.  If he blossoms offensively that is the cherry on top.   

 

 

Well said and even in the end after being given a chance if he is to be a 3rd line center who is a shutdown guy his contract at 4.3mill is just fine i think....compared to Jake's who is double the price...i have no qualms with Coots.

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Look, Couts may be a 3rd line center BUT he is very valuable to this Team. Even at his contract if he is a 40-50 point shutdown center that is not too bad. There are NUMEROUS other players on this Team that should be called out before Couts - Jake, Simmonds, Schenn... pretty much everyone not names G or Mason/Neuvy.

I rather have Couts turn into a 40-50 point player than Jake at 8M for way too long of a contract scoring 60 points each year. Sorry, but the Couts hate is really not even the slightest of concern as this Team is currently constructed. The Coach has him (and Hextall) as the 2nd line Center - would you rather him go to Hak and say "Coach, I really think I am a 3rd line center and not cut for the 2nd line..."

This is the year to place him at 2nd line center and see what happens. Maybe it works and maybe it wont but he brings other facets to the game like playing great defense - something that is needed on a Team that should be on the upswing in 2-3 years. Playing w/ dead weight on the wings certainly is not helping the cause either...

To me it is a no lose situation for Couts. If he is a 3rd liner - great. We already know he can play the shutdown role at a young age. If he blossoms offensively that is the cherry on top.

If he is a consistant 50 point shut down center, I'll blow my wad. He's not that though. There's still time (six years to be exact), but I dont think it will happen.

I dont think couturier is the "least" of our worries. Of the players stuggling, I think he is the second in line (behind jake) for my worries because of what's invested. I may even say he's the one I worry about most because he hasnt shown that he can meet expectations yet...jake has.

Who have his linemates been this year...simmonds, schenn for the most part? Simmonds is disappointing but schenn seems to get his points. Giroux has been with jake and raffle and he still gets his points.

Jake also gets his chances. How many times have we said that he's snake bitten? He gets his shots, he hit's posts, and he's noticed. Couts goes through stretches where I'm not even sure if he's on the ice. I dont know how many shots on goal he has but I do see zeros a lot when I check the box score.

Is there a point when I can finally break you guys. I think I'm getting close, but what is the straw that breaks the camel's back? If he scores less than 30 points this season, will that do it? Do we need to wait another season or two? When do we stop saying "he's only __ years old"?

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good article thanks for posting the link - it pretty much confirms what I see: Couturier is playing it safe and is under-confident in the O zone. I hear him say "I'm feeling good and playing with confidence" but to me it looks like mostly the opposite (on offense).

 

I don't expect Hak or his staff to "teach accuracy" to Couturier or anyone else. Shooting the puck accurately is a skill Couturier already possesses - unless the nets are bigger in Drummondville. Obviously the goaltenders as a rule aren't NHL-caliber in junior hockey but Couturier isn't getting stoned by great NHL goaltending: he's flat out missing the net. To me that speaks to his mental state, his attitude more than any lack of physical or natural ability.

 

Those (few) times when he's actually skated like a power forward, a confident play-making center he looked brilliant, gifted. My money is still on him to become a reliable goal scorer.

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good article thanks for posting the link - it pretty much confirms what I see: Couturier is playing it safe and is under-confident in the O zone. I hear him say "I'm feeling good and playing with confidence" but to me it looks like mostly the opposite (on offense).

I don't expect Hak or his staff to "teach accuracy" to Couturier or anyone else. Shooting the puck accurately is a skill Couturier already possesses - unless the nets are bigger in Drummondville. Obviously the goaltenders as a rule aren't NHL-caliber in junior hockey but Couturier isn't getting stoned by great NHL goaltending: he's flat out missing the net. To me that speaks to his mental state, his attitude more than any lack of physical or natural ability.

Those (few) times when he's actually skated like a power forward, a confident play-making center he looked brilliant, gifted. My money is still on him to become a reliable goal scorer.

Yeah I tend to agree with all of that, but I like him quarterbacking the transition as well.

I also think that while coaches can't teach accuracy, they can work on the tendency to hit the net. There are drills that are a bit remedial, but something has to be done. Those numbers on the whole team for missing the net seem to be a huge huge problem right now. And probable for years in guessing. Drill it into their heads with monotonous repetitive shooting drills. On net anywhere is better than missing g the corner by 6" to 3' like they tend to do.

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So I just did a quick check. It looks like the only forwards that have played significant time that have less shots on goal than Couts are Bellemare and Umberger. Umberger has 4 less shots in 2 less games.

That's pretty significant considering he plays second line minutes and is on the PP.

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@icehole

I DO care if Cooter or any center wins 100% of faceoffs. I faceoff win in the opposing zone IS a scoring chance in my opinion. Just as a win in the D-zone is a prevention of a scoring chance. Huge.

I played a game last night where we lost almost every faceoff. We lost because of it. And we were sucking wind all night because of it too. Took penalties because of it. Etc etc etc

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@Samifan

Thanks. It sums up how I feel pretty nicely.

So I realize this is a complete hindsight view, but what if Hextal traded Couts instead of Hartsy? Hartsy has 9 goals on the season and everyone knows he is a good guy to have on the team. At the time, I was in favor of the deal to let him go, but now I realize how important guys like that are.

At that time, Couts was the talk of the team. "Man this guys gonna be good" and "you have to have this guy against the best player". At 21 years of age, what could they have gotten for him? Maybe 2 good picks and a prospect? Maybe more?

Hartnel could have given us a few decent years @$4.5 mill, umberger wouldnt be on the team, and we'd have 2 or 3 more prospects coming up through the system. Couts's salary at that point would take care of the Hartnel/umberger salary difference, and we'd see better hockey.

I know it's hindsight but some GMs have an eye for that sort of thing.

Do you really think Hartnell would have 9 goals in this team?

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Maybe not, but he'd probably have more than 3 points.

If he'd missed half the games... With this offense...

I honestly can't say that with confidence.

Again, some people think the analytics are egg head stuff, but they win a ton more with Couter in the lineup. Corsi and what not might help explain why when scoring obviously isn't it.

Andnmaybe they just shouldn't have traded for umberger.

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Sorry, I stopped reading after "corsi" came into play. Why do people have to make it way more difficult than it is?

Three things matter to play at this level...skill, strength/speed, mental toughness. I think he lacks in 2 out of 3 categories.

I dont care if he wins 100% of faceoffs. If he doesnt generate a scoring chance from that faceoff win, it means nothing. I dont care about puck possession. You can take the puck and skate circles on the ice for 60 minutes. If you dont generate scoring chances, it means nothing. I dont care if you generate 100% of the shots. If they aren't quality shots, it means nothing.

Sean Couturier is a nice player that is lacking top level skating abilities and killer instincts. He has some skill but that wont help without the other two. He can become a better skater with the right coach and hard offseason training, but that progress should have been made 2 off seasons ago.

I wish they would have just let things play out instead of giving him a decent contract already. I guess we can just hope he is our shut down guy and forget the fact that he gets paid too much to do so. I'd be really surprised if he ever has a 40+ point season.

 

You're right that not all shots are scoring chances, but Couturier's Scoring Chances per 60 are the highest among Flyers centers, even though he's being buried with tough Zone Starts against good competition. The numbers are good for High Quality Scoring Chances: his +6 is better than any Flyers centre. To compare, Giroux is -3, even though he starts in the offensive zone almost 60% of the time. Couturier is the only centre on the team who is on the ice for more chances directed at the opponent's net than his own. The Flyers are taking 17% more shots than league average from the homeplate area in front of the net (where the most dangerous chances come from) when he's on the ice and are giving up 25% less at the same time in the same spot in their own end of the ice.

 

btw, if you generate 100% of the shots, you'll win the hockey game, right?

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You're right that not all shots are scoring chances, but Couturier's Scoring Chances per 60 are the highest among Flyers centers, even though he's being buried with tough Zone Starts against good competition. The numbers are good for High Quality Scoring Chances: his +6 is better than any Flyers centre. To compare, Giroux is -3, even though he starts in the offensive zone almost 60% of the time. Couturier is the only centre on the team who is on the ice for more chances directed at the opponent's net than his own. The Flyers are taking 17% more shots than league average from the homeplate area in front of the net (where the most dangerous chances come from) when he's on the ice and are giving up 25% less at the same time in the same spot in their own end of the ice.

btw, if you generate 100% of the shots, you'll win the hockey game, right?

You sound like you know more about these secondary stats than I do so I'm not doubting you, but could you explain how that is possible? How is he almost last on the team with shots but he has the most scoring chances per 60 minutes? I guess there's really only 3 other centers and he gets the second most minutes as a center, but I just cant believe he gets more scoring chances than giroux.

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BTW, I see that that piece about couts states that the flyers generate more scoring chances with him on the ice than Giroux. That's a big difference than couts getting the chances himself. Schenn and simmonds probably have a little to do with that right?

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@icehole

I DO care if Cooter or any center wins 100% of faceoffs. I faceoff win in the opposing zone IS a scoring chance in my opinion. Just as a win in the D-zone is a prevention of a scoring chance. Huge.

I played a game last night where we lost almost every faceoff. We lost because of it. And we were sucking wind all night because of it too. Took penalties because of it. Etc etc etc

 

 

Yeah, but the real reason you lost is because you didn't single handedly score more goals by yourself than the entire other team.

 

That logic tracks right?  well for some here it seems to.

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BTW, I see that that piece about couts states that the flyers generate more scoring chances with him on the ice than Giroux. That's a big difference than couts getting the chances himself. Schenn and simmonds probably have a little to do with that right?

 

Right and by that logic Schenn and Simmonds are more valuable at creating scoring chances than Voraceck and...  (take your pick as to who's playing the other side this week).

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How is he almost last on the team with shots but he has the most scoring chances per 60 minutes?

 

He's passing the puck too much and NOT taking his shots and when he does, he misses the net too much.  It's that simple.

 

That's sorta the point of the piece I originally posted.  If Coots could just shoot more and shoot ON NET more he'd have more goals and his line would have a ton more points.  

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