Unbreakable Records: Teemu Selanne's 76-Goal Season

[ScottM]

It has been over two decades that the NHL has seen a player post a 70-goal season. Mario Lemiuex's goal scoring pace in 1995-96 would have been good enough to break Gretzky's record of 92 over the course of a full season, but since cancer limited him to just 60 games that season, he finished with "only" 69 goals. Because of that, you have to go back to 1992-93 to find a player that reached the 70 mark. That season, Alexander Mogilny and Teemu Selanne both accomplished the feat. The most shocking thing about it is, of course, that Selanne was a rookie. Today's unbreakable record is his rookie record of 76 goals.

Now, to be fair, Selanne was not a rookie in the sense that we think of an 18 or 19-year old player breaking into the NHL. He was 22 years old and was already established as a skilled player in his native Finland, playing for Jokerit Helsinki, and had played in the Olympics in 1992. By the same token, however, he was not in the same class as Sergei Makarov who won the Calder at age 31 either. So, while Selanne would not have been a rookie that season had he been born in North America, it should be noted that he was still an eligible "Calder rookie."

It goes without saying that Selanne won the Calder that season. It also goes without saying that he shattered the NHL rookie goal scoring record. Besides Selanne, among players eligible for the Calder under the current rule, only Mike Bossy (53 goals in 1977-78), Alex Ovechkin (52 goals in 2005-06), and Joe Nieuwendyk (51 goals in 1987-88) have ever scored at least 50 goals in their debut NHL season. If you choose to ignore the fact that Gretzky was ineligible for the Calder because of his WHA season, you can add him to the list, but no matter how you look at it, the list is short indeed.

There are several reasons to think that we will never see this record broken. First, even if we use a lower threshold of 70 goals, we find that only eight players have reached that milestone at any point in their NHL careers. Raise the bar to 76 goals, and that number falls to just six. If we lower the target to 60 goals, we find that 20 players have reached that mark, but such seasons have become much rarer in recent years. Since the 1995-96 season when Lemieux and Jaromir Jagr both eclipsed 60, only two players have managed to get to the mark. One of those is Ovechkin, who has already established himself as one of the greatest goal scorers in the history of the NHL, and some believe may end up as the greatest goal scorers ever. Even when he had his peak season, he fell short of 76 by a full 11 goals. Add to those facts that this is a record that can only be broken by a rookie, and this record seems untouchable.

What would it take to break the record? First, there would have to be a significant increase in scoring. Such a change would probably require a rule change such as smaller goalie pads or larger nets (and the latter would cheapen goal scoring records in my mind). Additionally, any player that would be capable of scoring so many goals would have to be much more than a "generational talent." It would take the type of player that only comes along once or twice in a lifetime. Further, I suspect it would have to be a European player, as any North American player of that caliber would undoubtedly be in the NHL at age 18, and even a once in a lifetime player would be highly unlikely to perform such a feat at 18. Most Europeans of that level would also be in the NHL at 18, but there is more chance that they might play in another professional league to develop than that a North American would. Take all the facts together, and I highly doubt I'll see this one chance only record broken in my lifetime.

[WordsOfWisdom]

Different era in terms of scoring. None of those scoring milestones will ever be beaten without massive changes made to the current game. 

 

[OccamsRazor]

@ScottM

Another we won't ever see broken...

Most consecutive complete games by a goaltender: Glenn Hall, 502 (1955–1962)

[JagerMeister]

Not to denigrate Teemu Selannes rookie season. But considering time period, higher scoring. I think Ovechkins rookie season could be debated as equally impressive.

 

[ScottM]

3 hours ago, JagerMeister said:

Not to denigrate Teemu Selannes rookie season. But considering time period, higher scoring. I think Ovechkins rookie season could be debated as equally impressive.

While you may have a point, Ovi still came nowhere close to this record, and I don't think we'll see anyone do so unless there are some MAJOR changes ahead. Ovi's rookie year helps to show why this record is so unbreakable.

[OccamsRazor]

9 hours ago, ScottM said:

While you may have a point, Ovi still came nowhere close to this record, and I don't think we'll see anyone do so unless there are some MAJOR changes ahead. Ovi's rookie year helps to show why this record is so unbreakable.

We we ever see someone play as many games as Grant Fuhr did for the Blues in 95-96 in one season. IIRC it was 79 games.

I know i've already mentioned it but Glenn Hall's 502 consecutive complete games is just mind blowing i think!

Edited January 12, 2016 by OccamsRazor

[BluPuk]

To be fair Selanne was not a rookie per se. He was an NHL rookie, yes, but a 'rookie'? No. If you take him out of the picture (the NHL should have done that back then), who is next?

[radoran]

50 minutes ago, BluPuk said:

To be fair Selanne was not a rookie per se. He was an NHL rookie, yes, but a 'rookie'? No. If you take him out of the picture (the NHL should have done that back then), who is next?

He was all of 22. What criteria do you want the NHL to use?

[BluPuk]

On January 9, 2016 at 1:58 AM, ScottM said:

Now, to be fair, Selanne was not a rookie in the sense that we think of an 18 or 19-year old player breaking into the NHL. He was 22 years old and was already established as a skilled player in his native Finland, playing for Jokerit Helsinki, and had played in the Olympics in 1992. By the same token, however, he was not in the same class as Sergei Makarov who won the Calder at age 31 either. So, while Selanne would not have been a rookie that season had he been born in North America, it should be noted that he was still an eligible "Calder rookie."

I'm just agreeing with what Scott said. He was already an established pro, not a true rookie. IMHO that's why he has the 'record'.

I'm also saying I agree that using whatever the NHL's 'criteria' was, Gretzky should have won in his rookie year as Scott also said. Typical NHL.

Edited January 12, 2016 by BluPuk

[ScottM]

11 minutes ago, BluPuk said:

I'm just agreeing with what Scott said. He was already an established pro, not a true rookie. IMHO that's why he has the 'record'.

I'm also saying I agree that using whatever the NHL's 'criteria' was, Gretzky should have won in his rookie year as Scott also said. Typical NHL.

I'm not trying to take anything away from Selanne's season, because that was a remarkable campaign for anyone at any age, but yes, the fact that he was already a pro in Europe helped him. That has to be considered to get the full view of the record.

I also agree that there's inconsistency between him and Gretzky, but by the same token, had Gretzky been considered a rookie in 1979-80, there would have to be a bit of an asterisk on his "rookie season" for the same reason we're saying that about Selanne.

In the end, it is what it is, and the record belongs to Selanne, but those factors are part of what makes this so unassailable.

[radoran]

So, in 1992 the Finnish Elite League was pretty much just the same as the NHL was?

Not really buying that argument.

The WHA at the time is a different kettle of fish.

[ScottM]

18 minutes ago, radoran said:

So, in 1992 the Finnish Elite League was pretty much just the same as the NHL was?

Not really buying that argument.

The WHA at the time is a different kettle of fish.

I'm not saying that at all, but a few years of play there had certainly developed Selanne more than a typical 18-year-old rookie would have been. That's all I'm suggesting. Nothing more.

[radoran]

16 minutes ago, ScottM said:

I'm not saying that at all, but a few years of play there had certainly developed Selanne more than a typical 18-year-old rookie would have been. That's all I'm suggesting. Nothing more.

OK, but(TM) here are the ages of the five guys before and after Selanne

Niewendyk - 21
Leetch - 20
Makarov - 31 (this is an outlier and clearly IMO he should have been disqualified - they changed the rule thereafter "The Marakov Rule" to be under 26)
Belfour - 25 (Makarov Rule - 23 NHL games + 9 playoff games before his "rookie" season)
Bure - 20 (three(+) years with CSKA Moscow)
SELANNE - 22
Brodeur - 21
Forsberg - 21 (was in his fifth Swedish Elite League season when he came over)
Alfredsson - 22 (three years in the SEL)
Berard - 19
Samsonov - 19

There's not an "18-year-old rookie" in the bunch of them. The last "18 year old" before Selanne was Barasso in 83-84. The next one was Skinner in 10-11.

Moreover, previous to the 04-05 lockout, you had:

Raycroft - 23 (21 NHL games before his "rookie" season)
Jackman - 21
Heatley - 20
Nabokov - 25 (do his three seasons in the AHL/IHL disqualify him?)
Gomez - 19
Drury - 22 (does four years of NCAA college count against?)

and then Samsonov/Berard.

Point being, guys are always going to have different levels of development when they reach the league. If a guy qualified for the award based on the criteria at the time (Makarov notwithstanding) he won the award fair and square.

The NHL's obvious disdain for the WHA is what made Gretzky ineligible, IMO. And that, again IMO, was wrong. That said, he lost to Ray Bourque.

[BluPuk]

@radoran

I hear you. I can still clearly recall the awful arguments and name-calling that went on when this issue came up originally. Maybe we should leave a sleeping dog lie? 

[radoran]

12 minutes ago, BluPuk said:

@radoran

I hear you. I can still clearly recall the awful arguments and name-calling that went on when this issue came up originally. Maybe we should leave a sleeping dog lie? 

I don't really recall them - perhaps I didn't get overexcited about it?

I wouldn't at all mind if the league decided to lower the minimum age - but I can't see them lowering it below 22...

The average Calder-winning age has undeniably lowered over the past 10 years - and I really don't think there's an untapped talent pool like the Euro/Russian pool was in the late 80s/early 90s.

Edited January 12, 2016 by radoran

[ScottM]

On 1/9/2016 at 0:58 AM, ScottM said:

There are several reasons to think that we will never see this record broken. First, even if we use a lower threshold of 70 goals, we find that only eight players have reached that milestone at any point in their NHL careers. Raise the bar to 76 goals, and that number falls to just six. If we lower the target to 60 goals, we find that 20 players have reached that mark, but such seasons have become much rarer in recent years. Since the 1995-96 season when Lemieux and Jaromir Jagr both eclipsed 60, only two players have managed to get to the mark. One of those is Ovechkin, who has already established himself as one of the greatest goal scorers in the history of the NHL, and some believe may end up as the greatest goal scorers ever. Even when he had his peak season, he fell short of 76 by a full 11 goals. Add to those facts that this is a record that can only be broken by a rookie, and this record seems untouchable.

This is a key part of the original post. Again, I can't stress enough that I'm not trying to take anything away from Selanne. He had a season for the ages that year no matter how you slice it. Also note, I'm not arguing that Selanne should be considered ineligible that season. The only thing I said that might could be taken that way was the comment that if he had been from North America, he would've been in the NHL before that season. We all know that's true. That's why I pointed out that he wasn't in the same boat as an 18 or 19-year-old breaking into the league. But I also took care to point out that he's not in the same category as Makarov. I do believe that Selanne should've been Calder eligible, because he was still young, and it was a big step up. The Gretzky thing could be debated all day depending on your views of the WHA as a "major league," but I won't get into that here, because this is meant to be a tribute to Selanne's record.

Selanne deserves all the credit in the world for what he accomplished in 1992-93, the only reason for bringing up his previous play in the Finnish Elite League was to fully demonstrate the perfect storm that it would take for this record to be broken. It would take someone with a similar pre-NHL background, a similar level of talent, and a similar drive. One thing I'd encourage everyone to keep in mind: these posts aren't meant to tear down these records, but to honor them. I do try to give an accurate background that explains how the records happened for the sake of context, but I also explain why they won't be broken.

[radoran]

50 minutes ago, ScottM said:

Selanne deserves all the credit in the world for what he accomplished in 1992-93, the only reason for bringing up his previous play in the Finnish Elite League was to fully demonstrate the perfect storm that it would take for this record to be broken. It would take someone with a similar pre-NHL background, a similar level of talent, and a similar drive. One thing I'd encourage everyone to keep in mind: these posts aren't meant to tear down these records, but to honor them. I do try to give an accurate background that explains how the records happened for the sake of context, but I also explain why they won't be broken.

As a Finnophile I certainly apologize if I went overboard a bit

I do think that the primary reason that the Selanne record will simply never be broken is that the game has changed significantly. It's similar to why a lot of Gretzky's records are untouchable - they changed the rules to make it all but impossible to challenge his numbers (although they didn't change a rule specifically for Selanne, they did start calling the game in a significantly different way).

And the overall talent level of the league - despite the "dilution" that has happened with expansion - is a much higher level. Case in point, they just re-ran the Flyers/Soviet Army team game locally and the overall talent and speed of the game is startlingly different. Look at the 1980 Miracle on Ice and it's just a much different game. Even the Oilers' dynasty would be hard to replicate in this league.

I also don't think that the "perfect storm" can even happen these days. The world is a "smaller" place and there aren't guys who can fly under the radar. Selanne was a TENTH ROUND draft pick - much like we saw with Lidstrom (third), Zetterberg (seventh), Datsyuk (sixth). That sort of thing simply isn't going to happen again with the level of scouting that has been instituted BECAUSE those sort of players slipped through cracks. You might see an Andreas Nodl or a Michael Raffl or a Pierre-Edouard Bellemare type player who "emerges" in a Euro league and gets an FA shot in the NHL - but they simply aren't going to be at the level of a Selanne/Lidstrom/Datsyuk.

Hell, even a Radulov who is a dominant KHL player isn't a game-changer in the NHL.

Again, sorry for the nipick. I admit to my obvious Finnophile bias and step back.

Edited January 12, 2016 by radoran